Living in SF: earthquake risks

[jimtron]

I'm considering a move to San Francisco, but I'm a bit concerned about the earthquake risk, and I'm wondering how rational my concern is. My understanding is that there is a strong probability of another (at least one) big earthquake in the area, but I guess the question is: what are the odds of getting killed or badly injured or otherwise being significantly affected? I highly doubt that I would own any real estate, so I wouldn't have to worry about losing a home, plus I don't own too much stuff that I'd freak out about losing. Thoughts?

eta: Wasn't really sure where to post this...

[Dr. Trintignant]

I'm considering a move to San Francisco, but I'm a bit concerned about the earthquake risk, and I'm wondering how rational my concern is. My understanding is that there is a strong probability of another (at least one) big earthquake in the area, but I guess the question is: what are the odds of getting killed or badly injured or otherwise being significantly affected? I highly doubt that I would own any real estate, so I wouldn't have to worry about losing a home, plus I don't own too much stuff that I'd freak out about losing. Thoughts?

eta: Wasn't really sure where to post this...

It's rational, but the chance of death is pretty unlikely. San Francisco has about 800,000 people, and the Bay Area has about 7.4M, but only 63 died in the last "big" earthquake; the Loma Prieta quake of '89. A quake like that might happen every 40 years, making the annual chance of death 2 millionths of a percent. By comparison, the annual chance of dying in a car accident is something like 14 thousanths of a percent. So, you're something like 7000 times more likely to die in a car (yes, comparing statistics this way is a little bit bogus, but the point is to show that it's orders of magnitude different).

In short, don't worry about it.

- Dr. Trintignant

[ysabella]

I grew up in the Bay Area. You just learn what to do in case of a quake, and you get kind of used to them, because there are lots of small ones. They aren't as scary as they sound.

[theprestige]

Buildings and infrastructure in California are usually built with earthquakes in mind. Shock-absorbing foundations, flexible structures, etc. It's not like Seattle, for example. My parents live there, and I was worried for them during that big quake a couple years back. I wouldn't have been nearly so concerned if they'd been in SF for a quake of the same magnitude.

Anyway, I don't know if it's rational or not, but us California natives generally don't worry very much about quakes. The vast majority of them are barely noticeable, except right on the epicenter. The vast majority of the noticeable ones don't rise even to the level of mildly dangerous. Every few years we get a really big one that makes the national news, ruptures some water mains, cracks a few bridges and overpasses, and maybe condemns a few old buildings. The death toll is surprisingly low, compared to what happens in similar quakes in places like, say, China or Haiti. And we Californians know from direct experience that as a society we can cope with these quakes and get things back to normal pretty quickly.

Of course, there's still the much-rumored "Big One" still looming out there, but predicting it? Not a chance. It's like fusion reactors: always twenty years out. Worrying about it is like worrying about getting hit by a dinosaur-killing meteor, or a major volcanic eruption, or a wildfire.

In fact, that's probably what you should worry about, right there: wildfires. And high taxes. And a high unemployment rate. And water shortages. My advice to California transplants: earthquakes are the least of your worries.

[jimtron]

In fact, that's probably what you should worry about, right there: wildfires. And high taxes. And a high unemployment rate. And water shortages. My advice to California transplants: earthquakes are the least of your worries.

Uh-oh, looks like I've got four more threads to start...

[casebro]

Earthquakes don't kill people.

Un-reinforced masonry buildings do.

Live in a stick-built home that is bolted to it's foundation and you'll be fine.

[theprestige]

Earthquakes don't kill people.

Un-reinforced masonry buildings do.

Live in a stick-built home that is bolted to it's foundation and you'll be fine.
Coincidentally, this describes just about every home in central and southern California.

[theprestige]

Uh-oh, looks like I've got four more threads to start...
Not really. California is one of the most populous states in the union. Millions of people manage to live out their lives here, without ever being in any real danger from disasters natural or man-made.

Civilization: So awsome that even when it sucks it's still orders of magnitude better than the alternative.

May I ask why you're considering moving out here? If you're looking for work, I'd take it as a kindness if you opted to stay out of my job market. Things are bad enough already, without additional competition. On the other hand, if you're interested in shipping containers, the Port of Oakland is one of the continent's great container ports, and well worth the visit. On the third hand, if it's simply San Francisco's iconic cultural significance you're interested in, I recommend a bottle of Napa Valley red, and Tales of the City, Dirty Harry, or Vertigo.

[jimtron]

Not really. California is one of the most populous states in the union. Millions of people manage to live out their lives here, without ever being in any real danger from disasters natural or man-made.

Civilization: So awsome that even when it sucks it's still orders of magnitude better than the alternative.

May I ask why you're considering moving out here? If you're looking for work, I'd take it as a kindness if you opted to stay out of my job market. Things are bad enough already, without additional competition. On the other hand, if you're interested in shipping containers, the Port of Oakland is one of the continent's great container ports, and well worth the visit. On the third hand, if it's simply San Francisco's iconic cultural significance you're interested in, I recommend a bottle of Napa Valley red, and Tales of the City, Dirty Harry, or Vertigo.

I'm thinking of moving there because I have a couple siblings that live in SF, and I love it there. What's your job market?

[R.Mackey]

Like others have said, don't worry about it.

I've been through two serious earthquakes -- six miles from the Loma Prieta quake of '89, and moved to Southern California just in time for the Northridge quake of '94. Earthquakes are not efficient at killing people, excepting only those who have the misfortune to be in poorly built concrete structures or under unstable hillsides. They are, however, efficient at inconveniencing large numbers of people for long periods of time.

The best way to deal with earthquakes is preparation. Understand your house and keep away from heavy objects that might fall on you. Know how to safe your utilities after the event. Have a plan to leave that structure after the shaking stops, and not return to it for a week if needed. Keep basic supplies both in your house and at your office, in your car, etc. Keep a "go bag" of essentials ready at a moment's notice. Get to know your neighbors and sync them up with your plans and how to get back in contact.

And once you've done all that, don't worry about it.

[Ziggurat]

Keep basic supplies both in your house and at your office, in your car, etc. Keep a "go bag" of essentials ready at a moment's notice. Get to know your neighbors and sync them up with your plans and how to get back in contact.

And once you've done all that, don't worry about it.

That's good general disaster preparedness advice no matter where you live.

[oldhat]

I've lived in the Bay Area most of my life and I don't really worry or think about earthquakes. Only transplants seem to freak out over them, which is understandable. They're not like Armageddon when they do happen.

The only thing I'd really worry about would be living in one of those postwar soft story duplexes or triplexes in the Sunset or Richmond. Soft story apartment buildings are common elsewhere in less expensive areas, too.

Interestingly, the safer places to build foundation-wise in the Bay Area are generally on the hills. Many of the flat areas close to the Bay like the Marina District and Hayward are built on landfill and marsh.

I grew up in a 1920s wood frame bungalow in Rockridge, Oakland that my dad earthquake retrofitted himself with 12x12 beams. No damage at all in the '89 quake. I was really proud of my dad's engineering skill, he's an excellent carpenter.

[jimtron]

Thanks for the feedback folks! I'm no longer concerned about the earthquakes--now I just have to figure out if I can afford the rent.

[dudalb]

I grew up in the Bay Area. You just learn what to do in case of a quake, and you get kind of used to them, because there are lots of small ones. They aren't as scary as they sound.

Another Bay Area Brat here, and I agree.
Wierd how people from the Midwest, Tornado Paradise, get freaked out by earthquakes.

[dudalb]

Thanks for the feedback folks! I'm no longer concerned about the earthquakes--now I just have to figure out if I can afford the rent.

Now THAT you have good reason to be scared about.
Frankly, unless you are really raking in the bucks, Take SF off the list right away, and concentarte on the East Bay. Still Sky High rents, but not in Outer Space the way rents in The City are.

[jimtron]

Uh-oh, maybe it's my hometown of Chicago I should worry about:
http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2010/02/quake-like-tremors-reported-in-western-suburbs.html

[dudalb]

Someday the Lower Midwest is going have a horrendous disaster when a good size quake hits. People forget that the strongest quake in US History occured there in 1806..so strong it changed the course of the Mississippi. Problem is that area has been quiet ever since, and as far as earthquake safety goes, the building regulations are very,very,weak. There are moves to toughen the laws, but they get voted down as being too expensive. One day, sad to say, they will pay for their foolishness in this regard.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Pick a well built home and if possible, worksite. There are ways to manage most risks including earthquakes.

[R.Mackey]

Someday the Lower Midwest is going have a horrendous disaster when a good size quake hits. People forget that the strongest quake in US History occured there in 1806..so strong it changed the course of the Mississippi. Problem is that area has been quiet ever since, and as far as earthquake safety goes, the building regulations are very,very,weak. There are moves to toughen the laws, but they get voted down as being too expensive. One day, sad to say, they will pay for their foolishness in this regard.

1812 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1812_New_Madrid_earthquake), not 1806. And comparable to historical (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1857_Fort_Tejon_earthquake) earthquakes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1906_San_Francisco_earthquake) in California (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1872_Lone_Pine_earthquake), and well below the great quakes (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alaska_Earthquake) of Alaska. But, nonetheless, a very real hazard, and as you correctly point out a repeat would be devastating given that we are much more serious about earthquake resistant construction here in the West...

[jimtron]

OK, there's a good chance I'm going to move to SF in a few months. I've pasted quotes below pertaining to what kinds of buildings to avoid. If anyone has any additional specifics in that department please let me know. Thanks again for the responses.



Un-reinforced masonry buildings do.

Live in a stick-built home that is bolted to it's foundation and you'll be fine.
Coincidentally, this describes just about every home in central and southern California.

The only thing I'd really worry about would be living in one of those postwar soft story duplexes or triplexes in the Sunset or Richmond. Soft story apartment buildings are common elsewhere in less expensive areas, too.

Interestingly, the safer places to build foundation-wise in the Bay Area are generally on the hills. Many of the flat areas close to the Bay like the Marina District and Hayward are built on landfill and marsh.

I grew up in a 1920s wood frame bungalow in Rockridge, Oakland that my dad earthquake retrofitted himself with 12x12 beams. No damage at all in the '89 quake. I was really proud of my dad's engineering skill, he's an excellent carpenter.

Pick a well built home and if possible, worksite.

[R.Mackey]

You really don't have too much to worry about. Everything in San Francisco is built to seismic code. When picking a home, the key date is 1973 -- this is the year that code updates after the Sylmar earthquake went into effect.

A house pre-1973 is still possibly fine (my house dates to 1924), just pay more attention to risk items like foundation bolting, shear walls, and utility cutoffs, and avoid anything with cantilevers or cripple walls -- the classic split-level design was very hard hit in 1971, and again in the 1994 Northridge quake.

It's unlikely you'll find a deathtrap in the area. The locals already know about earthquakes and we tend to be draconian about building code and inspection.