What would it take for gold to hit $3000/oz in five years

[Ladewig]

On AM radio I hear incessant commercials for companies selling gold. The vast majority of them claim "experts believe gold will go to $3000 to $5000/ounce in the next few years." I can even find quotes on websites selling gold: here James Dines in 2007 predicts upcoming values of $3000-5000 (http://www.swissamerica.com/article.php?art=06-2007/200706200337f.txt).

I figure these folks are just authors trying to get people to buy their books, but the claim got me wondering. What political, technological, or financial events would cause gold to hit that number?

[WildCat]

Mass hysteria? Communicable mental illness? Ron Paul?

[Aepervius]

Loading all the gold on shuttle and throwing it into the sun until it reaches 3000$ per oz ?

[realpaladin]

The fastest way is that everyone signs over the ownership to me.

[hgc]

What would it take? Everyone starts believing Glenn Beck.

[Francesca R]

Its funny but the only "gold adverts" I have seen on UK TV have been about persuading people to sell unwanted gold because the price is pretty high.

Which makes more sense to me

[Ladewig]

Its funny but the only "gold adverts" I have seen on UK TV have been about persuading people to sell unwanted gold because the price is pretty high.

Which makes more sense to me

We see those on TV and a few actually are broadcast on the same radio stations advocating gold purchases. The ads referenced in the OP also warn against investing in gold by buying gold mining stocks because "that's just paper." The whole thing seems a bit scammish to me because anyone can walk into any coin store and buy one-ounce bullion coins within a dollar or two of the spot price.

[casebro]

Answer: Lose of confidence in any of the 'paper' markets.

Aside: Anybody got any clue as to how much gold is held by 'investors'? compared to stocks? bonds? real estate? I suspect gold is a piddling little amount. Which means that there is less faith in it's long term gains?

Also, in the recent/ongoing economics crunch, stocks dropped umm 50%? Trillions? How much did the total invested in gold increase? How much do you think the 'markets' would have to drop to get gold to $5,000 ?

[I Ratant]

Explode a nuke in Fort Knox.

[roger]

I would be happy to provide anyone with as many multiples of $1000 as they would like (to buy gold), provided they return $2000 (per oz) to me in five years. I can't imagine why any of these experts would turn me down, as it would provide them with a $1000/oz+ profit absolutely free.

But no one takes me up on the offer. I wonder why?

Think, Roger, think. :mad:

[The Painter]

Explode a nuke in Fort Knox.

That would do nothing. Fort Knox has been depleted for years.

[I Ratant]

Goldfinger's kid got it?
Are you saying there's nothing backing the buck? :)

[The Painter]

We haven't been on the Gold Standard since 1971.

[Ladewig]

That would do nothing. Fort Knox has been depleted for years.

I can't tell if you are joking or not, but surely someone exploding a nuke on U.S. soil would provide a very strong bump to gold prices, even if it were not a tripling.

[The Fool]

You have to keep this gold. If it gets out into the general public people go crazy...when they first see it after cracking open the safe they just stole their eyes get really big and their face is lit by a golden glow....they then look suspiciously sideways at their accomplice...a gunfight....it happens all the time...

It also causes people to speak like pirates.....

[stilicho]

Its funny but the only "gold adverts" I have seen on UK TV have been about persuading people to sell unwanted gold because the price is pretty high.

Which makes more sense to me

And those places are buying at a heavy discount. You can count on getting somewhere between 25% and 60% of the market price.

[The Painter]

I can't tell if you are joking or not, but surely someone exploding a nuke on U.S. soil would provide a very strong bump to gold prices, even if it were not a tripling.

Of course it would. Exploding a nuke anywhere, not just Fort Knox, in the US would do that.

Any disaster would do;

Gold rose $15.60, or 5.7 percent, on Sept. 14, 2001, as business resumed in New York three days after airplanes hijacked by terrorists destroyed the World Trade Center.


My interpretation was that he was referring to blowing up the Gold in Fort Knox. There is very little gold there anymore. That was my reference.


PS. I lose for explaining.

[PAC]

Sarah Palin presidency

[I Ratant]

Sarah Palin presidency
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You win the thread, we lose the country. :(

[dtugg]

That would do nothing. Fort Knox has been depleted for years.

Of course it would. Exploding a nuke anywhere, not just Fort Knox, in the US would do that.

Any disaster would do;

My interpretation was that he was referring to blowing up the Gold in Fort Knox. There is very little gold there anymore. That was my reference.


PS. I lose for explaining.

Is 147 million ounces "very little gold"?

Amount of present gold holdings: 147.3 million ounces.

The only gold removed has been very small quantities used to test the purity of gold during regularly scheduled audits. Except for these samples, no gold has been transferred to or from the Depository for many years.

http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_mint/fun_facts/index.cfm?action=fun_facts13

[hgc]

I can't tell if you are joking or not, but surely someone exploding a nuke on U.S. soil would provide a very strong bump to gold prices, even if it were not a tripling.


Yeah, joke. Explode a nuke at Ft. Knox in order to irradiate the gold there, and make Auric Goldfinger's holdings all the more valuable, is the plot of Goldfinger. Fortunately, Pussy Galore sold him out to Bond and the US Gov. Why they let him come so close to accomplishing it anyway, knowing in advance of the plan, is one of those movie plot points that clearly serves movie thrills better than it serves logic -- and that's one of the better 007 movies.

[GreNME]

That would do nothing. Fort Knox has been depleted for years.
My interpretation was that he was referring to blowing up the Gold in Fort Knox. There is very little gold there anymore. That was my reference.

Reference FAIL (http://www.usmint.gov/about_the_mint/fun_facts/?flash=yes&action=fun_facts13).

I'd love to see the dissonance it takes to backpedal out of this one.

[Ladewig]

Yeah, joke. Explode a nuke at Ft. Knox in order to irradiate the gold there, and make Auric Goldfinger's holdings all the more valuable, is the plot of Goldfinger. Fortunately, Pussy Galore sold him out to Bond and the US Gov. Why they let him come so close to accomplishing it anyway, knowing in advance of the plan, is one of those movie plot points that clearly serves movie thrills better than it serves logic -- and that's one of the better 007 movies.

I wasn't asking if the nuke was a joke. I did recognize it as the plot of "Goldfinger." I was asking if the comment about the gold being depleted was a joke.

[I Ratant]

Yeah, joke. Explode a nuke at Ft. Knox in order to irradiate the gold there, and make Auric Goldfinger's holdings all the more valuable, is the plot of Goldfinger. Fortunately, Pussy Galore sold him out to Bond and the US Gov. Why they let him come so close to accomplishing it anyway, knowing in advance of the plan, is one of those movie plot points that clearly serves movie thrills better than it serves logic -- and that's one of the better 007 movies.
.
Compressing the 3 ton Lincoln and dropping it into the bed of the Pinto pickup was amusing.
One of those "Die Hard" movies had that theme of stealing the gold also, if memory serves..