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View Full Version : New estimates of CJD deaths in UK suggest epidemic isn't likely

Shane Costello
27th February 2003, 02:43 AM
The latest projections (www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99993440) for deaths from CJD in the UK suggest that no more than 7,000 deaths will occur by 2080. No more than 80 more people may die due to vCJD in that time.

This certainly paints a rosier picture than a 1997 estimate of 10 million deaths, or a later estimate of 50,000 deaths. So far 122 deaths have been linked ot vCJD.
MRC_Hans
27th February 2003, 03:35 AM
The way I understand it, the big unknown factor is the transfer rate. It has been proven to a reasonable level that vCJD can be transferred to humans by ingesting "infected" material. But just how much material it takes, and which other factors influence the transfer has obviously not been discovered. Happily, it seems that estimates were way on the pessimist side. Of course, the prompt (and extremely drastic) response from the authorities may take some of the credit for these good figures. Were the actions too drastic? Well, ask the 80 victims.

Hans
Soapy Sam
27th February 2003, 04:13 PM
As an MI6 assassination weapon, the prion treated pie remains on the back burner for the moment.
Shane Costello
28th February 2003, 02:37 AM
Originally posted by MRC Hans:
The way I understand it, the big unknown factor is the transfer rate. It has been proven to a reasonable level that vCJD can be transferred to humans by ingesting "infected" material. But just how much material it takes, and which other factors influence the transfer has obviously not been discovered. Happily, it seems that estimates were way on the pessimist side. Of course, the prompt (and extremely drastic) response from the authorities may take some of the credit for these good figures. Were the actions too drastic? Well, ask the 80 victims.

The problem is that the evidence that BSE in cattle is directly linked with vCJD in humans is far from conclusive. It should be pointed out that CJD, as opposed to vCJD, does lead to deaths and has not been linked to BSE. vCJD deaths are almost entirely limited to Britain, the few deaths that have occured outside the UK have been in people who lived there for a time. I have links for these and I'll dig them out later.