Handicapping Iowa

[Jocko]

I know it's unfashionable of late, but my money's still on Dean in a squeaker.

Main reason: Harkin endorsed him, and Harkin runs Iowa. If it comes down to a matter of organizing and getting the right people to stand up and speak at the caucus meetings, it's Harkin. Plus he'll be the deciding factor for many undecided voters.

Harkin is to Iowa what the Daleys are to Chicago. If he wants it done, it'll get done. Any other takers?

[aerocontrols]

Latest poll from the Des Moines Register (http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c4789004/23244233.html) shows Dean in third, behind Kerry and Edwards, of all people.

I would be surprised if the majority of Dean's supporters are the sort who will stick it out for the caucus.

I selected Kerry, because he has been surging in the polls for the last few days. I think Dean's support is falling away as he no longer appears to be an 'inevitable' candidate.

MattJ

[Jocko]

Lotta votes, but few comments. Kerry may be surging, but talk is cheap in a caucus state. It's not a matter of going down to the library and punching a ballot- it'a a long meeting of debate and argument. Iowa polls aren't all that accurate, historically, at least not like they are in primary states. I'm still counting on Boss Harkin to pull the right strings.

[NoZed Avenger]

Originally posted by aerocontrols
Latest poll from the Des Moines Register (http://desmoinesregister.com/news/stories/c4789004/23244233.html) shows Dean in third, behind Kerry and Edwards, of all people.

I would be surprised if the majority of Dean's supporters are the sort who will stick it out for the caucus.

I selected Kerry, because he has been surging in the polls for the last few days. I think Dean's support is falling away as he no longer appears to be an 'inevitable' candidate.

MattJ

Actually, I think Dean and Gep will benefit more from the caucus atmosphere -- the union members, bosses, and heavy-hitters in the party organization will be present -- watching the very public "voting" -- and I think that benefits them at the expense of Edwards (especially) and Kerry (to a lesser extent).

[aerocontrols]

Originally posted by NoZed Avenger


Actually, I think Dean and Gep will benefit more from the caucus atmosphere -- the union members, bosses, and heavy-hitters in the party organization will be present -- watching the very public "voting" -- and I think that benefits them at the expense of Edwards (especially) and Kerry (to a lesser extent).


Change your mind yet? ;)

With 89% of precincts reporting:

38% Kerry (Winner)
32% Edwards (WTF? Way to go, John!)
18% Dean (WTF happened to his organization?)
11% Gephardt (YOU ARE NEVER GOING TO BE PRESIDENT!)

[Solitaire]

Oh, hey. How'd this guy do?

http://www.politics1.com/pix/lhlarouche.jpg

[shuize]

I just caught Dean's Iowa speech in which he tried to claim a dismal third place finish was actually a victory.

Man, what a dork ... I sure hope he gets the Democratic nomination.