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View Full Version : What's the deal with Karzai? And the CAS in general?


Captain.Sassy
7th April 2010, 06:01 PM
lol

Threatening to join the Taliban? omigosh.

I wonder if they'd have him?

http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2010/04/05/karzai-kandahar.html

I chalk it up to bluster and rhetoric, personally.

But really though. What's this guy getting done that a long-term occupation administration appointed by NATO or the OSCE or someone couldn't?

We should have occupied the bejeezus out of Afghanistan and built some proper institutions before going all libdem. Also, at this point I don't think it's 100% insane to try and get some involvement from the SCO.

In related news, the Kyrgyzstan gov't has its own worries these days. There's a US base there, ABC says it's important for Afghan operations.

http://abcnews.go.com/WN/kyrgyzstan-coup-us-allied-country/story?id=10313442&page=2

Of more interest to me is what the new Kyrgyz guys (assuming they set up a new gov't and it lasts for long enough to be recognized) will do and say re. the SCO.

In the last coup, China said:
"China’s Foreign Ministry spokeman on March 29 stressed China’s paramount
concern that law and order be re-established with Kyrgyzstan and that “good
neighborly relations” continue, including cooperation in combating terrorists."
http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/45463.pdf

And:
"Wen confirmed that Beijing would back the new regime in Bishkek and expressed his hopes that bilateral economic and trade cooperation would continue. Furthermore "China will also steadily and firmly support Kyrgyzstan in its efforts to defend its independence and sovereignty, enhance national stability, and develop national economy." Kulov, in turn, thanked China for supporting Kyrgyzstan throughout its difficult, early years of independence and emphasized that current international agreements would continue to be observed. Kulov also indicated that China and Kyrgyzstan would continue to work together on issues of mutual interest, namely terrorism, separatism, and extremism."
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews[tt_news]=31050

So as soon as the new guys were in power, China was fine with them. Pretty standard fare for China's pro-sovereignty, Beijing Consensus/Harmonious World foreign policy.

The thing is, the SCO, to the extent that it is a security organization, has as its key goal opposing extremism and terrorism.

In this coup/revolution:
"The opposition has called for the closure of the U.S. air base in Manas outside the capital of Bishkek that is a key transit point for supplies essential to the war in nearby Afghanistan." http://www.thestate.com/2010/04/07/1233304/police-shoot-4-dead-at-kyrgyzstan.html

Now here's the question: are the opposition Islamist? Is this why they oppose the Afghanistan war? OR do they want the base closed for other reasons? China might be happy to see the US regional influence eroded, but is also likely quite happy to have the US shoulder the burden of pacifying Afghanistan for now. How will China react to the coup/revolution, if it is successful? What if it's an Islamist takeover?

Should be interesting.

ETA: Apparently, Rosa Otunbayeva is one of the leaders of the current regime changers. Following the last change in gov't, she said:

"The new Kyrgyz government had already indicated that it would honor all of Kyrgyzstan's existing commitments, apparently including the Shanghai Cooperative Organization's (SCO) 2001 treaty and subsequent documents. Indeed, while acting foreign minister, Rosa Otunbayeva that not only would there be no fundamental change in foreign policy, that there will be no change at all in foreign policy. She also said that Kyrgyzstan's relations with China are "alive and kicking." "

Read another couple of articles on the rise of islamism in Kyrgyzstan. Some say it's a possible problem if the state fails, but others point out that the movement towards islamism in K. is less of a repudiation of west/colonialism/materialism than just looking for some form of civil society/institutions in the country. Anyways, these guys don't seem to be either islamists or anti-China/SCO.

The Fool
7th April 2010, 08:00 PM
Thee is some talk that he is a junkie...

Captain.Sassy
8th April 2010, 08:42 AM
What's the Taliban take on junkies?

They're pro, right?

lol

Darth Rotor
8th April 2010, 10:46 AM
May I offer an idea here? Karzai may have gotten where he is with help from outsiders, the US being prominent there, but he is still from there, he is still a local, and is no doubt painfully aware how tough it makes for him politically to appear as beholden to outsiders for his power. While he did get an assist, he doubtless has some power base before he got the nod as interim, from which he has transitioned into the more regular sort of political leader -- and all the headaches that brings.

At some point, if he is to sustain political success for the longer term, he has to distance himself from the foreigners, or he cannot expect to remain politically viable.

In short, I am not surprised at his nativist appeal. He has to adopt it to maintain his political success, since he lives there, no matter if we/US/NATO stay or go.

DR

Captain.Sassy
8th April 2010, 11:09 AM
May I offer an idea here?

'course!


Karzai may have gotten where he is with help from outsiders, the US being prominent there, but he is still from there, he is still a local, and is no doubt painfully aware how tough it makes for him politically to appear as beholden to outsiders for his power. While he did get an assist, he doubtless has some power base before he got the nod as interim, from which he has transitioned into the more regular sort of political leader -- and all the headaches that brings.

Fair enough, but the guys he was running against in that fraudulent election were also all locals. I think in throwing our support to Karzai (speaking as a Canadian), we have to be careful about what message this sends to his opponents who also ran in the election.


At some point, if he is to sustain political success for the longer term, he has to distance himself from the foreigners, or he cannot expect to remain politically viable.

Well, his Taliban rhetoric I see as just that- rhetoric. His meetings with Iran and other regional powers are a bit more than that perhaps.

Anyways, I still think that it was far too early to try and paste democracy overtop of Afghanistan's feudal society.

Captain.Sassy
8th April 2010, 06:34 PM
http://ca.news.yahoo.com/s/reuters/100408/world/international_us_kyrgyzstan_unrest

Apparently the new gov't is pro-Russian, and perhaps Russian supported.

"Omurbek Tekebayev, a former Kyrgyz opposition leader who took charge of constitutional matters in the new government, said that "Russia played its role in ousting Bakiyev,” the Reuter report said.
"Now there is a high probability that the duration of the U.S. air base's presence in Kyrgyzstan will be shortened,” Tekebayev said."
http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/90001/90777/90851/6944922.html

Conflicting reports on the status/future of the US base there...

"Otunbayeva said the Kyrgyzstan-U.S. contract on a U.S. military base in her country would not be affected by the regime change for the moment.

"Its status quo will remain in place," she said, "Give us time and we will listen to all the sides and solve everything.""
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/world/2010-04/08/c_13242569_2.htm

China has expressed 'deep concern', but largely just seems to want stability
"China is deeply concerned about the situation in Kyrgyzstan, and hopes the country will restore peace soon and maintain stability," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu told reporters Thursday. "China hopes that relevant issues will be settled in a lawful way."
http://english.people.com.cn/90001/90776/90883/6944770.html