Death toll rising from political protests in Thailand

[Orphia Nay]

The death toll has been climbing all day as reports come in from Bangkok. It's up to 20 so far.

"Yesterday’s clashes were the deadliest since 1992, when more than 40 demonstrators were killed during a four-day crackdown by security forces."

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-11/thai-crackdown-leaves-20-people-dead-truce-called-update1-.html

The 20 dead included five soldiers and a Japanese journalist, said Chatree Charoencheewakul, head of the government’s emergency medical center, talking by phone today. The number of injured climbed to 842 as of 6 a.m. local time, he said. The demonstrators also took five soldiers hostage, Agence France-Presse reported.

I know someone in Bangkok who says "it is expected, if they can get past the roadblocks, that up to 500,000 redshirts in isaan (northeast thailand) are heading to bangkok in the next day or two...".

:boggled:

[rjh01]

Always thought that Thailand was a democracy so I find this hard to understand.

The army could not have tried too hard otherwise they would have caused heaps of deaths. Maybe they are almost on the side of the demonstrators?

[Orphia Nay]

Always thought that Thailand was a democracy so I find this hard to understand.

The army could not have tried too hard otherwise they would have caused heaps of deaths. Maybe they are almost on the side of the demonstrators?

Maybe the army didn't try too hard because Thailand is a democracy, of sorts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Thailand

[Ranb]

I am headed there in two weeks. I flew in after the coup a few years ago, managed to stay out of trouble. The ony problems I foresee is the airport if they try to shut it down again.

Ranb

[Orphia Nay]

Good luck, Ranb! I'm sure you know to stay away from the places they protest. I hear most of Bangkok is quite safe.

Do we have any posters here living in Thailand?

[rjh01]

Maybe the army didn't try too hard because Thailand is a democracy, of sorts.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_of_Thailand

I hope you are right. The army could in theory do a lot of damage. If they refuse to do anything then the government is forced to negotiate until they have either
a. Reached some sort of agreement with the red shirts and democracy is strengthened.
b. Offered very generous terms which are then refused and so the red shirt leaders are in disgrace with the popular opinion in Thailand and the POLICE can deal with the situation, as has happened in the past in other democracies.

[Foolmewunz]

Good luck, Ranb! I'm sure you know to stay away from the places they protest. I hear most of Bangkok is quite safe.

Do we have any posters here living in Thailand?

Well, we've got that "former Russian Nuclear Security Officer" fellow, but since he's clearly out of his mind, will I do? :D



I have my "in-laws"(because Supamart and I aren't married, I use quotation marks) there, in large numbers. I also have old friends there and know many Thai expats in Hong Kong, both personal/family friends and co-workers.

Disclaimer: We are redshirts. (I don't think any of you who know me would have ever doubted that, but I thought I should put that up front.)

The situation is not good. Abhisit is clinging to power for dear life, even in the face of his coalition partners pulling away from him and suggesting he needs to call early elections.

The army is trying to prevent large number of redshirts from coming down from the north, but can only do so if they completely shut down travel into the Capital. That, of course, would be tantamount to declaring martial law, something the military has been known to do quite often, but this time it appears a little different.

The military are pragmatists if nothing else. The demonstrations a few weeks ago astounded people insofar as there were a lot of Bangkok residents cheering for the redshirts along the route. I believe it caused a number of the military to take notice.

And today's ruling by the election commission, while obviously politically timed, is another nail in the coffin of the current government. They announced that the exact same charges that got the Thaksin's party disbanded can be fairly levied against the Democratic Party, and if they apply the same laws, then they'll have to unseat all of them, too. (The ruling is that the party received about 9 million USD from a private company and used it for campaigning, illegally and undeclared, and for buying votes - a tradition in Thailad but the one for which the previous government was disbanded.)

All in all, normally this would worry us, as the royalist/loyalist faction generally has more money and has the police and military on their sides, and with the redshirts pretty much saying that they're going to the barricades willing to die, it had me worried. But along with the election commission ruling, there are quotes out there from a General who's saying, "Hey, I just want peace. If the people want an election, maybe that's what we should give them." Frankly, that's a message to Abhisit that his days are numbered. (He was just a pretty boy figure head for the Yellowshirts, anyway.)

If they do unto the DP what they did unto Thaksin's party, they will have to dissolve it. There will be no one left to form a coalition and they'll have to call new elections sooner, rather than later (If they don't? Expect serious violence.) Abhisit must call elections by the end of next year, but he'd announced that he would have them at the end of this year. His coalition partners are suggesting "in a couple of months" and the Redshirts are saying, "Now!"

[Ranb]

My wife is a yellow shirt. I am remaining neutral, for now as I am not a supporter of the king like my wife is. She is from a middle class family near Korat and feels the red shirts are trouble makers who flock to the run-away prime minister simply for the money.

She bought me a yellow shirt to wear, and I sometimes do in the USA where no one knows what it means, but I am not going to even take it with on my vacation. I will also avoid any demonstrations like the plague.

Ranb

[Foolmewunz]

Aside from the immediate impact, e.g. whether there's a pitched battle, a turnover of the government again, another coup, the interesting long-term effect is that that devotion to the king and royals is finally slipping in Thailand.

The people love their king but they're beginning to finally question him after six decades. Even devoted redshirts were known to say, "but if the king wasn't sick he'd step in and end all this" in the early months of this crisis. Now they're finally starting to realize that all those coups over the years had tacit if not explicit support from the palace.

It's very interesting to watch.

[Ranb]

I arrived in BKK on the 26th. The EVA flight to Taipei was about 7/8 full, the flight to BKK was about half full. No signs of anything going on at the airport, I did see one large group that my wife said was red shirts while we were on the sky train, but nothing was really going on. I heard that some of the roads to Korat might be shut down by protests in some sort of attempt to block the military from moving around. This might keep me from seeing my mother in law later on.

Ranb

[Orphia Nay]

Thanks for the report, Ranb. I hope you don't have any problems during your visit.

[Ranb]

The vacation is over. I saw a few extra police and military on some of the roads between Bangkok and Korat, but no demonstrators. Other than that, if I had I not read about the protests on the news I would have never known they were taking place by the way things looked over there.

Ranb

[Orphia Nay]

The vacation is over. I saw a few extra police and military on some of the roads between Bangkok and Korat, but no demonstrators. Other than that, if I had I not read about the protests on the news I would have never known they were taking place by the way things looked over there.

Ranb

Glad to know you had a safe vacation. Thanks again for the reports.

[Foolmewunz]

Bump - 'cuz it's getting ugly in Bangkok.

From various sources - take any of this with a skeptic's grain of salt, please as it's coming from a variety of sources, many of them first-hand, but of a personal nature, and being translated from tweets and text messages from some excitable friends and relatives.

To update this from April, the red-shirts have gone down from a high of about 10,000 squatters in the various encampments to 3,000 (roughly) in one of the ritzier shopping and business districts of the city. Last week, while there we splits and disagreements in the pro-government factions, there were bigger splits in the red shirts. The P.M. offered November elections, a slight imrpovement over his "end of the year" earlier statement. The old guard amongst the red shirts wanted to accept - the "young turks" carried the day and refused to accept negotiations until the P.M. agreed to bring charges against one of his subordinates who was instrumental - they felt - in causing some of the earlier violence.

Once they refused talks, the army was given the green light to use live ammo to "remove the demonstrators back behind their barricades", supposedly. What they did was set up snipers and start taking out demonstators, including "Major Redshirt" the highest known ranking military officer working with the protesters, and their tactician. Even the NYT referred to it as an assassination. He was shot by a sniper. I believe there are pics of him available, but some are rather graphic.

Twenty-nine dead - twenty-eight of them protesters, and the 29th was an army guy shot by his own troops according to the twitters and facebooks we're getting out of Thailand. (The government tried to shut down the feed service that CNN uses to get email/sms/videos from readers, but it wasn't successful. They have blocked many sites that we can reach from HK and you can likely reach where you are.)

Today - three to five dead, so far. The army cordoned off the area, supposedly to contain the protesters in their barricaded area, but they actually drove two armored troop carriers through the barricades, clearing the way for an assault, should they so desire. Of the dead and wounded (not sure which numbers of which) are three journalists. The Times OnLine reports that the troops just directed their fire at the journalists at one point.

Lots more info available but since there's been very little interest in this topic, I won't bother with it, now.

[DC]

its a crazy situation there. sad to see.

you got a good article about the Monarch? i dont know anything about him. only heard he is a corrupt ass.

[Foolmewunz]

its a crazy situation there. sad to see.

you got a good article about the Monarch? i dont know anything about him. only heard he is a corrupt ass.

I'll see if I can find something credible. "Corrupt", though is a relative term in Thailand. Most people I know who support Taksin, for instance, admit that he's likely corrupt, but that he's less corrupt than the other guys, and at least doing something for the laborers and rural poor.

Unfortunately, most of the best info is hearsay. No one writes anything down in Thailand because of that stupid noblesse oblige law. It's incredibly confusing, though.

The current scuttlebutt goes something like this:

The factions evidently consist of the King and Queen who are really the epitome of the status quo, and while the king is literally worshipped, even by the redshirts, the queen is quite hated. But they're on the same side of the squabble - and their pet military is the Army. Their son, the Crown Prince is pretty universally despised, except, of all people, by Taksin, himself. The Prince's armed forces consist of the Navy and Air Force, evidently.

The Queen is manipulating to hold onto power herself after her husband dies (any day, week, month or year, now) because the Prince is known to do charming things like enjoy beating up his hookers, is rumored to have HIV, and is an overall philanderer and gambler. He's rumored to have bet so much on the last World Cup that he had to sell off one of his palaces - to Taksin - to pay his losses.

The K & Q fear that if they allow the P to succeed, he'll just lay back and do nothing and the monarchy will lose their power, forever. That's probably in the cards anyway as I mentioned in another post, but they don't want to hasten the situation. They also fear that Taksin's rabble will be given free reign of the palace and stuff like that - that in short, the Prince will just sit back and let Taksin run things because he's so rich.

Or something like that.... Like I said, this part is far looser than my previous post. The shakier logic seems to be that Taksin supports the Prince because he (Taksin) is so clever that he knows that he can manipulate him and that the Prince is such a creep that he will actually bring down the Monarchy. Pretty strained logic from where I sit.


And while you've got that squabble for succession going on, you've got the military leadership staking their claims to the next reorganization, set for September. The head of their version of the Joint Chiefs is a very lucrative and powerful position. The guy currently on top is the one who said last month that the people wanted an early election and they should be given one. His successor is a bit more of a hard-liner and it is viewed that if they acceed to the redshirt demands, he'll lose face and not be named as the next capo di tutti capos, so he and his supporters are the leading hard-liners.

Ironically, the P.M., also generally despised by the redshirts, is probably one of the more liberal players and up until last Thursday was the leading voice for moderation. It's not understood what happened behind the scenes to turn him hard liner. It was likely the demand that he prosecute his assistsant, though. Face is very important in Thailand and that was an incredibly arrogant demand to make on him - or at least it would be perceived as so in Thai culture.

[Caustic Logic]

Foolmewunz, that was awesome. Thanks for bringing so much info to the table here. I was way way behind on the situation there.

[DC]

I'll see if I can find something credible. "Corrupt", though is a relative term in Thailand. Most people I know who support Taksin, for instance, admit that he's likely corrupt, but that he's less corrupt than the other guys, and at least doing something for the laborers and rural poor.

Unfortunately, most of the best info is hearsay. No one writes anything down in Thailand because of that stupid noblesse oblige law. It's incredibly confusing, though.

The current scuttlebutt goes something like this:

The factions evidently consist of the King and Queen who are really the epitome of the status quo, and while the king is literally worshipped, even by the redshirts, the queen is quite hated. But they're on the same side of the squabble - and their pet military is the Army. Their son, the Crown Prince is pretty universally despised, except, of all people, by Taksin, himself. The Prince's armed forces consist of the Navy and Air Force, evidently.

The Queen is manipulating to hold onto power herself after her husband dies (any day, week, month or year, now) because the Prince is known to do charming things like enjoy beating up his hookers, is rumored to have HIV, and is an overall philanderer and gambler. He's rumored to have bet so much on the last World Cup that he had to sell off one of his palaces - to Taksin - to pay his losses.

The K & Q fear that if they allow the P to succeed, he'll just lay back and do nothing and the monarchy will lose their power, forever. That's probably in the cards anyway as I mentioned in another post, but they don't want to hasten the situation. They also fear that Taksin's rabble will be given free reign of the palace and stuff like that - that in short, the Prince will just sit back and let Taksin run things because he's so rich.

Or something like that.... Like I said, this part is far looser than my previous post. The shakier logic seems to be that Taksin supports the Prince because he (Taksin) is so clever that he knows that he can manipulate him and that the Prince is such a creep that he will actually bring down the Monarchy. Pretty strained logic from where I sit.


And while you've got that squabble for succession going on, you've got the military leadership staking their claims to the next reorganization, set for September. The head of their version of the Joint Chiefs is a very lucrative and powerful position. The guy currently on top is the one who said last month that the people wanted an early election and they should be given one. His successor is a bit more of a hard-liner and it is viewed that if they acceed to the redshirt demands, he'll lose face and not be named as the next capo di tutti capos, so he and his supporters are the leading hard-liners.

Ironically, the P.M., also generally despised by the redshirts, is probably one of the more liberal players and up until last Thursday was the leading voice for moderation. It's not understood what happened behind the scenes to turn him hard liner. It was likely the demand that he prosecute his assistsant, though. Face is very important in Thailand and that was an incredibly arrogant demand to make on him - or at least it would be perceived as so in Thai culture.

thank you very much for this Info.

[Ranb]

My wife returned form Thailand a few days ago. She avoided the hot spots in Bangkok like the plague, as were many other people. She is keeping abreast of the events happening there, but is not worried about her family since they are all yellow shirts except for one of her red shirt brothers who is not taking an active part in the protests.

My wife and I differ in our attitudes towards the King. She feels that he is a kind and non-corrupt monarch with little power, but much influence who helps the poor. She also believes Taksin is a corrupt politician that takes advantage of the legal system for personal gain and buys the loyalty of the poor.

I think the king is part of a system that is so weak he depends upon those laws that forbid criticism of the monarchy to save face. I call the king’s son the “evil prince”. The wife agrees, but does not call him that herself. I have never had an opinion on the Queen though.

Ranb

[Orphia Nay]

Wow, Foolmewunz! Thanks for that excellent summary of the situation.

[Caustic Logic]

Speaking of death toll, didn't I read of a redshirt-sympathetic general shot dead by a sniper while talking to journalists? Ah yes, mentioned above. Some details here:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/05/17/world/main6490734.shtml

http://www1.voanews.com/english/news/asia/Thai-General-Aligned-with-Red-Shirts-Shot-93672929.html

Yesterday was not good.
Wednesday's deadly army assault on anti-government protesters.
...
at least 14 more deaths on Wednesday
...
Bangkok remains tense after its first night under curfew and shots were heard early on Thursday near a temple where many protesters had sought shelter.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/asia_pacific/10129711.stm

Nope, they are not taking the utopian way out. No velvet revolution today.

[Thunder]

i am concerned for my friend and his pregnant wife in Chiang Mei.