So where are the cuts going to be.

[geni]

Well for the most part the politicians are not going to tell us so lets try some educated guessing.

Further education is going to get hammered. No one is claiming it is protecteded and fewer problems are caused cutting BTECs and NVQs compared to increasing class sizes. A levels may get some degree of protection but no much.

Higher education is likely to see cuts with politicians talking about cutting down on (cheap) "micky mouse" degrees while universities quietly cut (expensive) science and engineering degrees

In terms of defence the navy will not get their carriers unless tha falklands kicks off again.

Art funding will be cut. Science funding harder to say

No one appears to have mentioned the fire brigade so expect cuts there.

Other suggestions?

[Rolfe]

I don't suppose we could just nix Trident? Too easy?

Rolfe.

[geni]

I don't suppose we could just nix Trident? Too easy?

Rolfe.

Doesn't count. The lib dems admit they would like to do that.

[Rolfe]

Well, they said something including the word Trident, but it was nowhere near a complete cut.

Why doesn't it count? Because very few people would be at all disadvantaged?

Rolfe.

[geni]

Well, they said something including the word Trident, but it was nowhere near a complete cut.

Why doesn't it count? Because very few people would be at all disadvantaged?

Rolfe.

Because if you mean cutting trident rather than it's replacement that would probably cost money since you would have all the costs of shutting it down ahead of time and it doesn't cost that much to keep running.

[Worm]

Lib Dems just wanted Trident included in the upcoming review - which it currently isn't.

In terms of cuts, as usual they'll target the Civil Service and simply demand 5% savings across the board from every department, same in local government.

[Darat]

I don't suppose we could just nix Trident? Too easy?

Rolfe.


The official figures puts the cost of the replacement for Trident at £20 billion, the estimates of those against it put it at £100 billion. The 100 billion figure appears to have come from Greenpeace and as far as I am aware the 100 billion is an estimate for the lifetime costs of the replacement which is 30 years. So in the worse case (that the £100 billion had to be started to be paid for now) it would be £3.33 billion a year. So scrapping the replacement would not really make much of a dent in even the current defence budget, scrapping the current Trident "instantly" - ignoring any costs incurred in decommissioning or penalties for contracts already signed would save (from what I've found from a quick search) would save somewhere in the region of £1 to £2 billion a year. So scrapping Trident is not going to help much given the scale of cuts we apparently "need".

[zooterkin]

The converse to cuts is increasing taxes; I think all the main parties have avoided making any comment about VAT remaining at current levels, for example.

[Darat]

Labour ruled it out the other day - they are saying that since the Tories don't want the increase in NI to go ahead they will have to increase VAT. Certainly our VAT rate is lower than quite a few other EU countries, including France and Germany.

[funk de fino]

Public sector pay cuts, pay freezes and job losses.

[geni]

Public sector pay cuts, pay freezes and job losses.

I thought the tories had already gone for the pay freeze option and the lib dems for job loses.

[Jaggy Bunnet]

All of the above and more. Public sector pensions will get hit (and that won't make a dent in the deficit at all because they don't bother to count the cost of that).

Pay freezes, job cuts, tax rises across the board. The increase in spending was never sustainable anyway (unless you are willing to put taxes up a lot which nobody appears to be), sustaining it against the context of paying for a recession is going to make a very tough spending round a whole lot worse.

[Debaser]

The road building budget. Probably not mourned by the green tinged members of the community, but civil engineering has already been hit quite badly, and there's been an ever present cry of 'skills shortage' throughout my career. Let's hope physical infrastructure is a thing of the past and personal jet-packs will come to our aid.

[Debaser]

By the way, as a private sector employee this is the second year of a pay freeze in my company. Rolling reviews are planned each quarter but I'm not holding my breath.

[geni]

The road building budget.

I thought labour had already admitted to that one?

[andyandy]

Well for the most part the politicians are not going to tell us so lets try some educated guessing.

Further education is going to get hammered. No one is claiming it is protecteded and fewer problems are caused cutting BTECs and NVQs compared to increasing class sizes. A levels may get some degree of protection but no much.

Higher education is likely to see cuts with politicians talking about cutting down on (cheap) "micky mouse" degrees while universities quietly cut (expensive) science and engineering degrees

In terms of defence the navy will not get their carriers unless tha falklands kicks off again.

Art funding will be cut. Science funding harder to say

No one appears to have mentioned the fire brigade so expect cuts there.

Other suggestions?

Local councils will get absolutely hammered.

[andyandy]

The newsnight analysis of the IFS report was that both labour and the tories needed to find about £50billion over the course of the parliament - and based on their prior commitments (eg the pledge to maintain NHS spending etc), labour needed to be looking for savings in every £1 in £7 in areas not ringfenced....

whilst the tories was a staggering £1 in every £4....

Labour will massively hike taxes, the tories will slash and burn....

it'll be a fun decade. Well done Broon.

[Debaser]

I thought labour had already admitted to that one?

Well the HA are still progressing a number of fairly major schemes so either the message hasn't got through or they're living in hope.

[geni]

The newsnight analysis of the IFS report was that both labour and the tories needed to find about £50billion over the course of the parliament - and based on their prior commitments (eg the pledge to maintain NHS spending etc), labour needed to be looking for savings in every £1 in £7 in areas not ringfenced....

whilst the tories was a staggering £1 in every £4....


I'm expecting to see a lot of playing around what exactly falls withing the ring fences. Defintion of NHS could get interesting.

[andyandy]

I'm expecting to see a lot of playing around what exactly falls withing the ring fences. Defintion of NHS could get interesting.

true....i think these will be redefined in terms of "frontline" services - ie the bit that the middle classes see.....