China

[Tony]

hammek posted this article on another thread, and instead of hyjack that one, I decided to create a new thread.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61968-2004Jan29.html ..full article


In 1980, China traded little and most of its people lived on the edge of subsistence. Now it's already the largest market for cell phones (269 million in 2003) and the second-largest for Internet users (78 million). The changes, considering their magnitude, have gone remarkably smoothly. Everyone now wants a piece of the China market, but there are underlying fears that we may be abetting an uncontrollable colossus. Endless questions remain as to how China affects the global economy and whether China and the United States will cooperate or collide. We don't know the answers, and -- almost certainly -- neither do the Chinese.


If the possibility exists that the US and China might one day "collide", why aren't the leaders of the US and China trying to develop as many friendships and friendly relations as possible? Considering how high the stakes are and the implications of a US/China war, it would seem logical to start forging friendships ASAP.

[Tmy]

I always think we have a real good relationhsip wh China, but its sort of behind the scenes. Its tough for the US to be open chums with a bunch of Commies.

War wh China would be bad for business. Since business owns our leaders, theyll make surethings go well with China.

Hell, it wasnt too long ago when they had one of our spy planes and crew for about a week. Now its all bygones.

[El Greco]

Originally posted by Tony
If the possibility exists that the US and China might one day "collide", why aren't the leaders of the US and China trying to develop as many friendships and friendly relations as possible? Considering how high the stakes are and the implications of a US/China war, it would seem logical to start forging friendships ASAP.

I don't think that there is any nontrivial chance for military collision. Especially after the 2008 Olympics, the two countries will be so densely interweaved -in the economical sense- that a war will be against the interests of both.

[Tony]

Originally posted by Tmy

War wh China would be bad for business.


Hmm, do you really understand what's at stake? War with china wouldn’t merely be bad for business, it would be apocalyptic.

[Tony]

Originally posted by El Greco


I don't think that there is any nontrivial chance for military collision. Especially after the 2008 Olympics, the two countries will be so densely interweaved -in the economical sense- that a war will be against the interests of both.


I hope you're right, but I still have concerns. To quote Austin Powers "There's only two things I fear, and one's nuclear war".

[Tmy]

Originally posted by Tony



Hmm, do you really understand what's at stake? War with china wouldn’t merely be bad for business, it would be apocalyptic.

The apocalyps is REALLY bad for business! I think Clinton had a good relationship wh,. China . Bush Sr. too.

GW kinda scares me. Id hate for him to get all up in Chinas face.


Ever notice how we treat China + Cuba so differently?? Its cause of the $$$$$.

[Tony]

Originally posted by Tmy

Ever notice how we treat China + Cuba so differently?? Its cause of the $$$$$.

Well duh. ;)

[El Greco]

The best war deterrent is culture, and as far as I know US culture exports to China are going pretty well.

[Tmy]

Just send over Ambassador Britney Spears!!! Problems solved!

[jj]

Ok, if China and Taiwan get into it, who will 'W' support?

Who SHOULD he support?

A chilling thought, that.

[Hutch]

Originally posted by jj
Ok, if China and Taiwan get into it, who will 'W' support?

Who SHOULD he support?

A chilling thought, that.

Aye, jj, that is the Bull in the China shop :rolleyes:

Seriously, that is the one issue that could lead to a direct confrontation between the US and China---Taiwan democratically declares it's independence, the Chinese Bomb and Missile Taiwan in preparation for invasion, the US Navy moves to interdict....yes, that is a scary proposition.

As to whom we should support...in the Kissinger realpolitik world, it would be Mainland China, for all the economic and military pluses and minuses. In real life, the political pressures (from both liberal Human Righters and Conservative Anti-Communists) would probably be of such magnitude that we would have to react.

In terms of military might, we are still generations ahead of the Chinese but fighting a major war at the end of a 8,000 mile logistics chain would be a nightmare. In a way, we are like Britain during the 19th century, asserting our dominance by having a naval presence no other nation can rival.

As for nuclear, I will not speculate, as that is not war----it is insanity.

[geni]

Originally posted by Tmy
Just send over Ambassador Britney Spears!!! Problems solved!

Unfortunetly they would probably send her back.

[Grammatron]

Originally posted by Tmy


The apocalyps is REALLY bad for business! I think Clinton had a good relationship wh,. China . Bush Sr. too.

GW kinda scares me. Id hate for him to get all up in Chinas face.


Ever notice how we treat China + Cuba so differently?? Its cause of the $$$$$.

I think it's more to do with all those Cuban immigrants in Florida than $$$$$.

[gnome]

Originally posted by Hutch

Seriously, that is the one issue that could lead to a direct confrontation between the US and China---Taiwan democratically declares it's independence, the Chinese Bomb and Missile Taiwan in preparation for invasion, the US Navy moves to interdict....yes, that is a scary proposition.

As to whom we should support...in the Kissinger realpolitik world, it would be Mainland China, for all the economic and military pluses and minuses. In real life, the political pressures (from both liberal Human Righters and Conservative Anti-Communists) would probably be of such magnitude that we would have to react.


I believe President Bush has made it clear that we would back Taiwan in the event of an invasion--he hasn't gone out and said it, but IIRC he's implied it.

I also don't think this is much of a change from previous administrations' policies on either side of the fence. Maybe someone can correct me.

[kittynh]

well, and don't discount Taiwan. China is big and scarey and has nukes...

Taiwan has some amazing stuff of its own. It wouldn't be pretty, but I think China certainly respects how much of a hit they would take if they tried to invade Taiwan. They also have a much better trained and disciplined army, and a more educated army.

[DanishDynamite]

China is not neccessarily big and scary. China is simply big. Once it embraced the free market (economically, not politically) its economy would inevitably grow. Which it has, in amazing leaps and bounds for decades.

Kudos to China.

What remains interesting IMO, is not any supposed power struggle between the US and China, but how China will handle the inevitable crumbling of the One-Party system. Will it be bloody or will it be as gentle as their de facto conversion from a Communist economy to a Free-Market one?

[jj]

Originally posted by kittynh
well, and don't discount Taiwan. China is big and scarey and has nukes...

Taiwan has some amazing stuff of its own. It wouldn't be pretty, but I think China certainly respects how much of a hit they would take if they tried to invade Taiwan. They also have a much better trained and disciplined army, and a more educated army.

I'm not discounting either of them, I just don't want to have to clean up :(

You might say that if I DOUBTED both of their effectiveness I'd be a whole lot more comfortable.

Unfortunately, we're talking about two nuclear powers with sophisticated, accurate delivery mechanisms, high-tech planes, navy, subs, ...

[Hutch]

Kitty, good points, I do not discount Taiwan, they have bought some top-of-the-line stuff, some of it from us and qualitatively they are probably ahead of the mainland--but for how long?

This would delve in with Tony's original post, the Taiwanese and Mainland China have established major trade ties and I believe that Taiwan has huge investments on the mainland. So economically war makes no sense for either side.

then again, when is sense required for war...

Main thing to remember right now is Mainland China does not have a navy or logistics capability to cross the straits to invade and then support an invasion. Estimates I've read say it will be about 2020 before that happens, and a lot can happen in 20 or so years--both good and bad.


jj, don't think Taiwan has nukes (if so, I think Washington and Beijing would be Most Disturbed, but I am in total agreement, that is a mess I hope we never have to face.

[jj]

Originally posted by Hutch
jj, don't think Taiwan has nukes (if so, I think Washington and Beijing would be Most Disturbed, but I am in total agreement, that is a mess I hope we never have to face.

They have allegedly been involved in the black market. It would be good if you were right.

[Zep]

Someone I know in the area tells me that the vast majority of new businesses in southern China have been initiated with Taiwanese backing and money. This was the area from which most of the Taiwan Chinese fled from in front of Mao, so this is sort of a homecoming in a way. I understand it has always been the aim of the Taiwan Chinese to "return" to China - perhaps this is how it will happen - investment and assimilation instead of armed invasion.

Remember also that, until the late 1930's, southern China was one of the major trading areas of the world. Shanghai was a major port. And that China has traditionally been a manufacturing and trading nation. And in terms of China's overall history, the 50 years of Communism since 1949 is actually a tiny fraction of time, in effect, it is but a small anomaly.

Further, with the return of Hong Kong to China in 1997, itself being in the middle of this new economic development region (i.e. south China), HK's powerhouse operation in trade does not seem to have waned at all either. So there doesn't seem to be active "Party" attempts to slow things up, rather they seem to be encouraging it (or perhaps are cashing in on it).

So I would suggest that China is well on its way to returning to "capitalism", but perhaps not capitalism as known and understood in the west.