Coincidence can only explain so much

[Yahweh]

From The telepathy debate of last month thread (http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&postid=1870316561&highlight=coincidence#post1870316561), Ian says:
You cannot appeal to coincidence because coincidence can only explain so much.

To explain this in an analogy, when hit my hand with something heavy, I immediately feel pain afterwards. Perhaps its just coincidence that I hit my hand with a ball peen hammer, and the sensation of pain which occurs afterward are not causally connected at all, its just coincidence that they occurred at the same time.

I hit my hand again, I feel pain again.

I hit my hand a third time, I feel pain a third time.

A few more trials and a badly broken hand later, I start to suspect that there is a connection between dashing my hand to pieces with hammer and the pain that accompanies it.

In that above instance, I conclude that coincidence is insufficient for explaining why my shattered and mashed up arm is accompanied by pain.


Now, let us take this principle and expound on it a bit. I am going to prove the existence of the paranormal (more specifically I'll be proving Anomalous Cognition) by determining that the events listed are too numerous and too extraordinary to be occurring by mere "coincidence".

Over the past few days, I have been collecting a series of psychic events, by the end of this post you ought to believe that I am indeed a clairvoyant.

Big List of Psychic Things:


I am a frequent PalTalk user. 2 nights ago an unusual series of events occurred. I would type something, and then another member would type the exact same thing as I typed immediately after I had typed it. No, it was not merely a "hello" or "hahaha", but actual sentences. I believe this has occurred between myself and JREF members Wyvern and Pirate_Lad.

This is verifiable by the folks who frequent the Room For Skeptics room on PalTalk. I usually designate the psychic link by saying something like "Me and are actually 2 people sharing the same mind".

Yesterday, I was going to play the song ChumbaWumba in the PalTalk room. There was no pretensive warning, but immediately after I had loaded up the song, Ceptimus begins the play it. Verify information here (http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&postid=1870317254&highlight=phone+call#post1870317254).

I was reading through the JREF, and I came across a post which I thought was laugh out loud hysterical. I clicked the PM button to congradulate the poster for his poster, and as I'm being taken to the "send new PM" page, I get the alert box which tells me I've recieved a new PM. Before I send the PM I had intended, I decide to read the new PM I had just recieved.

Lo and behold, it was from the exact same person who I intended to PM. Lo and behold (echo), they sent me a PM commenting on one the funny things I had written.

I would display the PM and recipients, but I have some things regarding privacy. (In actuality, I dont usually like to mention that I've recieved a PM in the first place.)

More PM fun: I usually have the JREF on my mind a lot (seeing as how I maintain a 20+ post per day average, its not surprising). More than once, I have been thinking of JREFer, and when I log onto the boards I have recieved a PM from them.

This last occurred on 02-06-2004 and 02-07-2004.

Before Sister Yahweh came home from work today, I was busy updating my big list of funny things Sister Yahweh says (she has this habit of saying absolutely hilarious things without realizing it).

When she arrived home, she decided to come to my room and ask me if I still had that list of things she says. (Thats one psychic connection)

I said I did, then she says this: "Remember that time I said 'My mom is like 'now I know what you guys do on the phone, you just sit on the phone and make plans all night'... thats right, soon its gonna be murder plans...".

Funny thing about that quote, while I was updating the list of funny things she says, that was the exact same quote I was busy editing the grammar on. (That is the other psychic connection)

Very recently in the last month I had a friend who I hadnt spoken to in a few years call my house (seeing as how I moved twice from the time she last called, it was amazing my phonenumber had stayed the same).

When I picked up the phone, I knew it was for me (note: very few people ever call my house with expressed intention of speaking to me). I also knew immediately before I answered the phone who was calling.

This morning, I had thought to myself "I wonder when they are going to show that episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer with the ubervamps again", I flip the channel and there it was: The exact episode I was thinking about.

I often think of what I would like to see people wear. Usually, the following day, that person will be wearing exactly what I wanted them to wear.

Quite often, I will be thinking of something. Later on, someone will act according to my thoughts. Sorry if thats vague, but its 4:17 AM and I cant muster the effort to give any examples of that occurring at the moment.


I know most of those accounts are anecdotal, but I tried to detail as much verification as I possibly could.

I think its obvious: Coincidence is insufficient to explain all of those events. Now, I am a meticulous record keeper of my own life, I lost the original list of psychic events (I should have transferred it to notepad when I had the chance). I notice quite literally dozens of so-called "coincidence" occurrences which occur to me on a daily basis. I'll see if I can detail more examples by the end of today.

Note: I would definitely apply for the JREF prize, but there are a few things restricting me:
1. My psychic powers are not intentional, I cannot call upon them to give me information at will.
2. I dont have the money. Contention 6 of JREF Prize Application (http://www.randi.org/research/challenge.html) reads "All expenses such as transportation, accommodation, materials, assistants, and/or all other costs for any persons or procedures incurred in pursuit of the reward, are the sole responsibility of the applicant. Neither the JREF nor J[ames] R[andi] will bear any of the costs".

By now, I have made my point.

It is quite obvious that I am merely making a statement about a humans natural tendency to find "connections" between events which are not actually related in the least. The point of this thread is to satire Ian's and others' concerns regarding "things that are just [i]too coincidental".

[iain]

Originally posted by Yahweh
I often think of what I would like to see people wear. Usually, the following day, that person will be wearing exactly what I wanted them to wear.I find it hard to quantify just how much more enjoyable my life would be if this worked for me. In fact, you've inspired me. I'm going to try it just in case it works - nothing to lose and a much more enjoyable working environment to gain.

[Yahweh]

Originally posted by iain
I find it hard to quantify just how much more enjoyable my life would be if this worked for me. In fact, you've inspired me. I'm going to try it just in case it works - nothing to lose and a much more enjoyable working environment to gain.
Please note I am terribly unimaginative.

[Darat]

Originally posted by iain
I find it hard to quantify just how much more enjoyable my life would be if this worked for me. In fact, you've inspired me. I'm going to try it just in case it works - nothing to lose and a much more enjoyable working environment to gain.

Given your avatar this should be an easy one to judge , I'll just wait for the evening news bulletin and the heavily mosaiced images that will accompany it...

[The Don]

I was going to post an incredulous reply sugesting that you may need to get rather more sleep than you currently are.

Then I spotted the rest of your post.

Sorry for ever doubting you

[Dragonrock]

I usually have the JREF on my mind a lot

That pretty much explains all of the forum coincidences. If you think about it throughout the day then it wouldn't be hard for you to have over a hundred different thoughts about the board. Also, considering that you have shown yourself to be more than a little smarter than a brick I could easily see that number being much higher.

I would type something, and then another member would type the exact same thing as I typed immediately after I had typed it. No, it was not merely a "hello" or "hahaha", but actual sentences. I believe this has occurred between myself and JREF members Wyvern and Pirate_Lad.

People of similar age having similar thoughts about the same subject? That's practically unheard of.

This morning, I had thought to myself "I wonder when they are going to show that episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer with the ubervamps again", I flip the channel and there it was: The exact episode I was thinking about.

And there's no chance that you happened to see a preview for it?

Yes, coincidence can only explain so much, but it can explain alot. In many cases the mundane explanation is not easily seen because the paranormal one is sexy and more exciting. Being exciting may make it more interesting, but it doesn't make it more correct. If you keep looking for mundane explanations, you'll quickly learn that what you thought was mundane was anything but.

And finally,

Please note I am terribly unimaginative.

No, you're not, I enjoyed the mental exercise of your post.

[voidx]

Another fine case of remembering significant things while ignoring/forgetting insignificant things. How many times have you thought of a show, or episode and turned on the TV to NOT have it be on? Wow I bet you a whole bunch more than the alternative. Insert this into all above examples. It may not fit all, but it will fit enough that the remainder could be easily within the realms of chance. At the very least it shows how one mundane explanation can go a long way to explaining mysterious things. Imagine if we tried all mundane things! Now paranormal things are obviously a consideration, but just one of many. My problem has always been, on what basis do some people choose it first among all others? Especially when it is almost always no more likely than a handful of mundane explanations?

But I agree with others above, this thread was a fun exercise of sorts :). I for the record voted Planet X for lack of a better option :D.

[bjornart]

This isn't funny!!!!!!! How can I be the only one to vote the true skeptic way!!!!!!!! And where can I get a towel avatar!!!!!!

[Suezoled]

Well, being one of Yahweh's moms, I too:

1.) can predict what TV show episode will be on. Back when I watched TV that is.

2.) I've said the same thing someone else has said when they are saying it.

3.) I jump up and run to the microwave just as it's on the last couple seconds of heating something up.

4.) I share the same date of birth, blood type, favorite animal, and guardian animal as one of the Sailors in Bishoujo Senshi Sailor Moon.

5.) I spark most metal objects these days. Must be my internal powers getting out of control when I'm not concentrating. Dang power leak....

6.) Yahweh better not be too imaginative about what he wants people to be wearing. I'll smack his Divine self flat if he gets out of line.

[Clancie]

The "New Age" term for an unusual pattern of coincidence is "synchronicity". :)

P.S. I will vote for Xx-Rational-xX in any poll! :kiss:

[Dragonrock]

Originally posted by Clancie
The "New Age" term for an unusual pattern of coincidence is "synchronicity"

It's also the name of a very annoying song by the Police.

[Ladewig]

This morning, I had thought to myself "I wonder when they are going to show that episode of Buffy the Vampire Slayer with the ubervamps again", I flip the channel and there it was: The exact episode I was thinking about.


If instead of taking the population as a whole, imagine all the people in your country who thought about any BVS episode while flipping channels. If there were a hundred different episodes and all were equally likely to be thought of, then 1% of the people who thought of that episode were correct when they tuned in that morning. One percent does not seem like an unimaginable coincidence.

[thaiboxerken]

I think it's because you are god and just don't know it, Yahweh. Can you bless me with financial wealth on the scale of millions of dollars? Thank you.

[!Xx+-Rational-+xX!]

Option 3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Give me rational thinking or give me death!

[Zep]

Originally posted by !Xx+-Rational-+xX!
Option 3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Give me rational thinking or give me death! You aren't getting rational thinking, so where shall I send you the rat-poison?

[!Xx+-Rational-+xX!]

Originally posted by Zep
You aren't getting rational thinking, so where shall I send you the rat-poison?

Zepie, I already got it! Send the rat-poison to a woo-woo of your choice but keep it away from your SP (!Xx+-Rational-+xX)!

[Yahweh]

Todays Psychic Events:


In Forensics class, the teacher was detailing the results of the most previous tournament.

He gets around to describing my results. When he finishes, in a nice creepy voice and hunched down quite low I say "delightful" (believe me, I am known for being very creepy :p ).

Simultaneously, the gal across the room mirrors my movement and words to such a degree that afterwards there was about a 3 second "hey, that's... unusual..." moment of silence.

Note: The gal who I am referring to and I hardly ever talk to one another, her behavior was noticeably uncharacteristic, and she's a quiet one (as in not a class clown at all).

Very, very peculiar...

I have a particularly strong "feeling" (if that is the best way to describe it) about one gal in my debate class. I am willing to make a prediction of sorts that she will be wearing a denim jacket (which is not something worn independent of the outfit itself) and denim pants tomorrow.

Its not a terribly unusual thing to wear pants and a jacket in the wintertime here, but I'm just noting the unusual combination of denim with denim.

Note: I have no pre-assembled knowledge of the future (i.e. I have not listened in to conversations, knowing a pattern of which clothes will be chosen for any particular day, etc.) outside of my own psychic feeling.

Note2: I own a digital camera, but there is no way I'm going to ask this gal to pose in a shot simply to get a point across about my awesome psychic powers.

I write down a lot of vague things on a sheet of paper. Sometimes they are just notes reminding me to do things, or particular quotes that might bounce around my head.

After remembering my experience with Tropical Sprite, I wrote down "Reanimate the dead, kill lots of folks - Artificial Sweeteners with Natural Pickleberry Concentrate". (No, I dont like Tropical Sprite too much...)

Proceeding toward the evening, Sister Yahweh uses the words "I think it would be cool to be a zombie, because then you could kill people and not even care or have to think about it..." (she was talking on the phone at the time, so I have no idea what the other side of that conversation might have been). A few minutes later, she makes a comment about the taste of Tropical Sprite, she describes the taste as "vodka and skittles".

Edit to add: Numerology found my dead rat. (http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&postid=1870321124#post1870321124)


Those are the only psychic connections today that were worth listing...

Do yall still believe its coincidental?


Tomorrow, I give one final projection of Psychic Connections, and I'll let yall sort out the coincidence from the physical :) (Keeping my name on the front page of the Paranormal Board... sure that's one motivation... ho diddily hum, do do do do...)

[Yahweh]

Originally posted by thaiboxerken
I think it's because you are god and just don't know it, Yahweh. Can you bless me with financial wealth on the scale of millions of dollars? Thank you.
Here is an interesting Psychic Connection:

You mentioned "you are god and just dont know it".

Well, in the fictional religion I have created in my mind (and it is a highly detailed one), the primary character in the religion is in fact a god without knowledge of his godhood. It is an interesting story, because the god actually grows and learns along with companion members of the world (and what a surprise the character's personality is not unlike my own).

Before responding to my thread, I was thinking about the fictional god, continually developing the plot of the story.

Your comment struck me in an unusual way. A god who does not know he is a god...

(The current time is 12:42 AM, that means... Woohoo! First Psychic Connection of the day!)

[Wyvern]

Originally posted by Dragonrock


People of similar age having similar thoughts about the same subject? That's practically unheard of.



Well . . . I could actually (in theory, that is) be Yahweh's mother. And from what I know of the thoughts of teenage boys, I do not have similar thoughts. :D

Although I must admit that Yahweh is quite the exceptional exception. :)

[Zep]

Originally posted by !Xx+-Rational-+xX!

Zepie, I already got it! Send the rat-poison to a woo-woo of your choice but keep it away from your SP (!Xx+-Rational-+xX)! You aren't getting rational thinking, so where shall I send you the rat-poison?

[!Xx+-Rational-+xX!]

Originally posted by Zep
You aren't getting rational thinking, so where shall I send you the rat-poison?

Zepie, like I already said I have rational thinking so there is no need to get it! You shall not send me (your SP) rat poison so either send it to some believer or keep it for yourself! But I prefer that you do not consume it yourself because this would not be good for me being that I’m your SP! Soon my skepticism will grow and you will be considered my sock puppet rather than the other way around! Besides I doubt that you can reference any peer-reviewed studies that suggest rat-poisoning can affect conscious towels!

[Zep]

Originally posted by !Xx+-Rational-+xX!

Zepie, like I already said I have rational thinking so there is no need to get it! You shall not send me (your SP) rat poison so either send it to some believer or keep it for yourself! But I prefer that you do not consume it yourself because this would not be good for me being that I’m your SP! Soon my skepticism will grow and you will be considered my sock puppet rather than the other way around! Besides I doubt that you can reference any peer-reviewed studies that suggest rat-poisoning can affect conscious towels! You still aren't getting rational thinking, so where shall I send you the rat-poison?

[!Xx+-Rational-+xX!]

Originally posted by Zep
You still aren't getting rational thinking, so where shall I send you the rat-poison?

I already answered this and you still aren't getting it! Check your PM box!

[Ladewig]

Before I accept the conclusion that the paranormal explanation of what you describe is the best one, I must consider all possible explanations. Perhaps the things you describe are a bit more creative than what actually happened - you might be pulling our legs, or trolling, or performing an experiment to see how the board reacts. I would also need to rule out mental illness. There are some illnesses in which sufferers intently believes in their ability to predict the future.

More information is needed before we "multiply entities" to include a paranormal source.

[Marquis de Carabas]

I find it deplorable that of all the posters to this thread who call themselves critical thinkers or rational beings, none have hit upon the simplest and most obvious conclusion. Yahweh is apparently the victim of a vast conspiraacy of aliens and leprechauns.

The leprechauns descend on him when he's tired, get him drunk on Guinness, hypnotize him and manipulate his brain to think certain thoughts at pre-ordained times. The aliens then use torture and invasive mind-control to make the people around Yahweh act in such a way as to coincide with the thoughts the leprechauns implanted.

You should all be ashamed of yourselves for missing this. And, Yahweh, if you want any help combatting the conspiracy, let me know.

[Dragonrock]

Originally posted by Wyvern


Well . . . I could actually (in theory, that is) be Yahweh's mother. And from what I know of the thoughts of teenage boys, I do not have similar thoughts. :D

Although I must admit that Yahweh is quite the exceptional exception. :)

I was actually refering to Yahweh and Pirate Lad. I think they are both teenagers.

[Wrath of the Swarm]

Aha! Proof that Yahweh is actually Stargate SG-1's Daniel Jackson!

Behold! (http://www.gateworld.net/omnipedia/characters/j/jackson.shtml) He has the eyebrows, the cowl, the ultimate cosmic powers... even the glasses are the same!

Clearly he has returned to Earth to enlighten us.

[Clancie]

Hi Yahweh,

Interesting list! (I'm going to guess that the girl -wasn't- wearing the denim outfit you thought she would be wearing today. :) ).

You know, the most obvious explanation for these "coincidences" would be that every day we think of thousands of things related to people, places and things in our daily lives.

Maybe we only -notice- these "random thoughts" and give them special significance when they happen to actually coincide with something in real life. But that "coincidence" doesn't mean they still aren't random--with a thought matching real life just like a ball randomly finding a winning slot on a roulette wheel.

I don't think the list so far is more compelling than "coincidence"..."synchronicity"...whatever.....would lead us to accept as non-paranormal. But...if you keep adding to it...well, over time, who knows? :)

[Chanileslie]

All I have to say is {SMOOCH} You're beautiful. :p

[Suezoled]

You know, I thought Clancie would post something like "Non random thoughts may infiltrate with random thoughts so they seem random but you don't know if they really are."

[Interesting Ian]

Originally posted by Clancie
The "New Age" term for an unusual pattern of coincidence is "synchronicity". :)

P.S. I will vote for Xx-Rational-xX in any poll! :kiss:

Emmm . . .I hope he's a guy! :p

[Clancie]

Posted by Suezoled

You know, I thought Clancie would post something like "Non random thoughts may infiltrate with random thoughts so they seem random but you don't know if they really are."
:confused:

And, Suezoled...., iyo, did I?

[DickK]

Originally posted by Clancie
The "New Age" term for an unusual pattern of coincidence is "synchronicity". :) My God, I mean Your Yahweh, that's exactly the same term used by Jung to describe "synchronicity", what a coincidissitudinosity! Oh no! This sentence won't stop referring to itself, it's exactly the same term used by J...[stack overflow, connection reset by peer]



This sig for rent, usual rates, no pets.

[Yahweh]

I didnt get a chance to update yesterday. I had intended to update at 12 AM (CST), but I fell asleep and didnt get around to it. Oh well, this list is a continuation of the others:

I wrote down this list of words I wrote down shortly after my last post:

Scientology Claims a life in the News
*Sol, la luna, las estrellas
*Vendyokus Endala Krishvu
*Human Penchant for Life
*Red Hots (candy)
*Robotic Motion
Cookies are delicious delicacies
*I dont like the drugs but the drugs like me
Spin me right round
Ms. Desireè

(* means there was some significance in the following day)


Immediately as I'm typing this (at 8:20 PM), I am in PalTalk:

Lisa was mentioning that the things she wants are no normal girly things, instead she wants a bigger harddrive, better video card, and more RAM...

I said outloud "Shane would be drooling if he heard this right now...", it wasnt but 5 seconds later that Shane showed up in the room.

"Soy, La Luna, Las Estrellas"

Yesterday, Physics Teacher showed a video on Circular Motion (how cool!).

The video was nothing remarkable, it casually showed a nice early diagram of the universe, the diagram was in Italian (well, Spanish and Italian are quite close...). The diagram was nicely labeled with calligraphy. Some of the labels were in fact the sun, the moon, and the stars.

"Vendyokus Endala Krishvu"

Yall might recognize the word "Krishvu", but the others are in reference to the fictional religion I've created.

A specific question about the nature of God was asked to me (something regarding omniscience), I responded by detailing the character Vendyokus as the Devine Feminine essence of the God.

Of course, this may not be intuition, its not necessarily intuition to fulfill your own prophecies.

"Human penchant for life"

During Debate, we were discussing whether people have an obligation to value the "common good" before their own self-interests.

It was mentioned that all human actions are movitated by one desire: The need for survival.

This is easily a human penchant for life.

"Red hots (candy)"

I found a box Hot Tomales in the kitchen. Hot Tomales candy are a cylindrical version of Red Hots in my opinion.

"Robotic Motion"

An interesting thing I saw, folks in the Forensics Room were having quite a delightful little 70s Disco Dance competition.

"I dont like the drugs but the drugs like me"

That is a lyric in a song by Marilyn Manson...

I was asked what kind of music I liked, then I was asked if I enjoyed Marilyn Manson.

Today, during English class, I was busy letting my mind wander off in all different directions at once. I gave thought "extreme programming" or "competitive programming".

Well, it seems about 20 minutes later (during Lunch Hour), I was asked by a friend if I wanted to join the computer programming team... jesus christ, I had no idea my school had this kind of team (I knew the school was ungodly boring, but this pushes the limits). Well, it seems I'm now the (tentative) second of a 3 person team who will be in a nice computer programming competition.

And other fun fun stuff!

Edit to add: After I completed this post, the folks on PalTalk began talking about nostalgia. George152 had made a comment about Deja Vu... hmmm, a paranormal reference timed perfectly with the completion of my post...


Originally posted by Clancie
Hi Yahweh,

Interesting list! (I'm going to guess that the girl -wasn't- wearing the denim outfit you thought she would be wearing today. :) ).
(In actuality, I cheated a little with that prediction... although I legitimately had no foreknowledge, the guess was not totally out of the air, I just noticed the gal enjoys denim and wears it quite often... and guess what she wore yesterday? :p I must be psychic! )

In actuality, I have an unusually compulsive habit of unconsciously linking my thoughts to completely unrelated events that occur throughout the day. (This happens dozens of times a day, however I have a tendency to forget most of the "connections".)


Originally posted by Ladewig
Before I accept the conclusion that the paranormal explanation of what you describe is the best one, I must consider all possible explanations. Perhaps the things you describe are a bit more creative than what actually happened - you might be pulling our legs, or trolling, or performing an experiment to see how the board reacts. I would also need to rule out mental illness. There are some illnesses in which sufferers intently believes in their ability to predict the future.

More information is needed before we "multiply entities" to include a paranormal source.
The things I described are actual events, they happened as described (I tried to keep the details as straight as possible, so it is possible that my little brain selectively dressed up the details just slightly :D ).

The point was merely to demonstrate that things can occur which are seemingly beyond "coincidental" explanation, but that "beyond coincidence" conclusion is quite premature. (Of course, I might be a psychic in denial... yeah, whatever...)

A phone rings and a person knows who is already on the other end, one person starts a sentence and another person finishes it, two people wear the same outfit, you go to PM someone and find as you are about to do so that you have recieved a PM from that person: There is nothing remarkable about any of those events.

Go through yourself and see how many casual thoughts or occurrences which seem to have mysterious "psychic connections" yourself.

Helpful note: Highlight the bottom of my first post... I intended the thread to be a direct opposition to Ian's claim that things which are (by his own personal standards) seemingly inexplicable by coincidence and therefore suggest the nature of event might be "paranormal".

[Yahweh]

Originally posted by Wrath of the Swarm
Aha! Proof that Yahweh is actually Stargate SG-1's Daniel Jackson!

Behold! (http://www.gateworld.net/omnipedia/characters/j/jackson.shtml) He has the eyebrows, the cowl, the ultimate cosmic powers... even the glasses are the same!
"Eyebrow" singular ya mean.

*Women in the audience cringe, Yahweh chuckles to himself*

[Yahweh]

Originally posted by Dragonrock
I was actually refering to Yahweh and Pirate Lad. I think they are both teenagers.
Yahweh: Current Age = 16

Pirate Lad: Current Age = 23


Pirate Lad is very old teenager by my standards :p

[Suezoled]

Originally posted by Clancie

:confused:

And, Suezoled...., iyo, did I?

No Clancie. You did not. You said it was very much a likely random occurence.

[Clancie]

Posted by Suezoled

No Clancie. You did not. You said it was very much a likely random occurence.
Great--just wanted to be sure my meaning -was- clear. :)

[T'ai Chi]

Originally posted by Yahweh

Yahweh: Current Age = 16


I bet it is 16.something right now!

[Yahweh]

Originally posted by T'ai Chi
I bet it is 16.something right now!
At the very moment I am typing this (9:12:40 PM CST)

Current Age = ~16.3424657534247