senor boogie woogie
14th March 2004, 08:11 PM
Hola!
I could rant about the crappy choices in 2004, but that is some other time.
I read the news and read the polls in Election 2004. The poll says something like Kerry-50% Bush-48% Nader-2%. This is not accurate. What the pollsters need to take a look at in the individual states and how they vote.
A candidate can win a majority of votes from 11 of the most populous states and win the election, while blowing the popular vote. These states are California, New York, Pennslyvania, Illinois, Texas, New Jersey, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Massachuttes. Include DC which is a gimme for the Democrats anyway. All of the above states with the exception of Texas is very winnable
Democratic "safe" states-California, Minnesota, Iowa, New York, Massechuttes, Hawaii, Oregan, Washington State, DC, Illinois. I would also venture than Michigan and Ohio will fall to the Democratic column.
Republican states: All southern states with the possible exception of Florida, Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, the "Dakotas" and most of the inner mountain states. Also Indiana.
Looking at http://johnedwards2004.com/map, I see Kerry with a 278 to 260 win against Bush. If I was him, I would campaign my ass off in Ohio and Florida. Make a lot of stops in the uppper midwest, especially Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan. Of Course California and Oregan and Washington state. Write off the south.
I can also see another 2000 election but with Bush as the victim, Bush might win the popular vote but lose the election. Who knows?
I could rant about the crappy choices in 2004, but that is some other time.
I read the news and read the polls in Election 2004. The poll says something like Kerry-50% Bush-48% Nader-2%. This is not accurate. What the pollsters need to take a look at in the individual states and how they vote.
A candidate can win a majority of votes from 11 of the most populous states and win the election, while blowing the popular vote. These states are California, New York, Pennslyvania, Illinois, Texas, New Jersey, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Massachuttes. Include DC which is a gimme for the Democrats anyway. All of the above states with the exception of Texas is very winnable
Democratic "safe" states-California, Minnesota, Iowa, New York, Massechuttes, Hawaii, Oregan, Washington State, DC, Illinois. I would also venture than Michigan and Ohio will fall to the Democratic column.
Republican states: All southern states with the possible exception of Florida, Utah, Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, the "Dakotas" and most of the inner mountain states. Also Indiana.
Looking at http://johnedwards2004.com/map, I see Kerry with a 278 to 260 win against Bush. If I was him, I would campaign my ass off in Ohio and Florida. Make a lot of stops in the uppper midwest, especially Iowa, Wisconsin and Michigan. Of Course California and Oregan and Washington state. Write off the south.
I can also see another 2000 election but with Bush as the victim, Bush might win the popular vote but lose the election. Who knows?