Drewbot's Challenge

[Drewbot]

Split to new thread from here (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=96177).

Would this be acceptable as a challenge?

I claim I can use my psychic powers to detect what shape is contained in a sealed box

I am in a closed room,

You bring me 10 boxes which include one of the following shapes, triangle, square, pentagon, hexagon, octagon.

You may use two of any shape, they can be placed randomly in the boxes.

If I psychically predict 6 of the 10 shapes, then I win $1000000

Would this be acceptable?

[jsfisher]

Would this be acceptable as a challenge?

I claim I can use my psychic powers to detect what shape is contained in a sealed box

I am in a closed room,

You bring me 10 boxes which include one of the following shapes, triangle, square, pentagon, hexagon, octagon.

You may use two of any shape, they can be placed randomly in the boxes.

If I psychically predict 6 of the 10 shapes, then I win $1000000

Would this be acceptable?


Only 6 out of 10? That seems like a very low criterion for success. I may have miscalculated the probabilities, but aren't there about 6 chances in 1,000 of getting 6 or more correct? (This assumes you don't peek in each box after guessing, too. Your chances go up considerably if you peek.)

[jimtron]

Would this be acceptable as a challenge?

I claim I can use my psychic powers to detect what shape is contained in a sealed box

I am in a closed room,

You bring me 10 boxes which include one of the following shapes, triangle, square, pentagon, hexagon, octagon.

You may use two of any shape, they can be placed randomly in the boxes.

If I psychically predict 6 of the 10 shapes, then I win $1000000

Would this be acceptable?

Drewbot: can you tell us a bit about your powers? Then maybe we could suggest a better test than this. Can you see through opaque box walls?

[William Smith]

Split to new thread from here (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=96177).

Would this be acceptable as a challenge?

I claim I can use my psychic powers to detect what shape is contained in a sealed box

I am in a closed room,

You bring me 10 boxes which include one of the following shapes, triangle, square, pentagon, hexagon, octagon.

You may use two of any shape, they can be placed randomly in the boxes.

If I psychically predict 6 of the 10 shapes, then I win $1000000

Would this be acceptable?

This sounds good so far. You might have to do two runs with getting six out of ten correct each time to satisfy the requirement.

Have you tried this at home? How successful were you?

[Drewbot]

Actually, I dont have any powers, I was seeing if I could get one random shot at a million bucks, that is why I posted it in the FAQ thread, and not as a challenge. It got moved here.

[hcmom]

The point of the challenge is to set up a test so that it can't be won by a random shot.

[Drewbot]

Durn.

[Gr8wight]

The point of the challenge is to set up a test so that it can't be won by a random shot.

There's nothing that can't be won by a random shot. The point of the challenge is to create a test that would be easy to win if the claimant had the powers they profess, but extremely unlikely to be won by a random shot.

[SkepticScott]

This is also why the JREF has an expert on probability and statistics review all the numbers involved in the challenge. p(slipping a fast one past him) << 1e-6 :D