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Fishstick
3rd May 2011, 01:10 AM
Now that Bin Laden is gone, a lot of countries that have troops in Afghanistan are going to have to consider their longterm future. Some uneasy questions arise:
What are the goals for the war on terror? What's the delination point where one can say "We won" or "we lost" ? Are we going to continue it until there is zero terrorism? If not, when do we consider it low enough?

gumboot
3rd May 2011, 01:17 AM
Winning the War on Terror is like Winning the War on Bribery or Winning the War on Diplomacy, or, ironically enough, Winning the War on War.

Terrorism is nothing more than a tactic for pursuing political or ideological goals. As long as political and ideological goals exist, some people will use terror to achieve them.

If we were to be honest, the question would be "When is the war on Radical Islam won?" Because that's the war we're actually fighting, and currently we're losing pretty badly. A big part of why we're doing so badly is the people in power for the most part haven't managed to actually grasp the nature of the conflict.

Undesired Walrus
3rd May 2011, 01:56 AM
If we were to be honest, the question would be "When is the war on Radical Islam won?" Because that's the war we're actually fighting, and currently we're losing pretty badly. A big part of why we're doing so badly is the people in power for the most part haven't managed to actually grasp the nature of the conflict.

If you are talking about the West you may have a point, but in the Middle East and the wider region Islamism is taking a beating by a growing surge of young democrats more interested in curtailing corruption, getting jobs and oppurtunity rather than joining the Jihad.

Only 2% of Muslims in Lebanon and 5% in Turkey expressed favorable views of al Qaeda. In Jordan, 15% had a positive opinion of al Qaeda, while about one-in-five in Indonesia (22%) and Egypt (21%) shared this view. Palestinian Muslims offered somewhat more positive opinions (28% favorable), but about two-thirds (68%) viewed bin Laden's organization unfavorably.

In Pakistan, where Bin Laden was living when he died, the confidence level fell from 52 percent in 2005 to 18 percent in 2010. Bin Laden received the highest level of support among Muslims in the Palestinian territories, 34% of whom said they had confidence that he would do the right thing in world affairs. In 2003, 72 percent in the Palestinian territory said they had confidence in bin Laden. Minorities of Muslims in Indonesia (26%), Egypt (22%), Jordan (13%), Turkey (3%) and Lebanon (1%) expressed confidence in bin Laden. In Jordan in 2003, where researchers found the largest change, 56 percent said they had confidence in him.
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/Religion/post/2011/05/pew-osama-bin-ladens-influence-was-waning/1

gumboot
3rd May 2011, 02:01 AM
If you are talking about the West you may have a point, but in the Middle East and the wider region Islamism is taking a beating by a growing surge of young democrats more interested in curtailing corruption, getting jobs and oppurtunity rather than joining the Jihad.


You've made exactly the same mistake the western governments have made. This conflict isn't about Al Qaeda, or terrorism. It's about Radical Islamic ideology.

Darat
3rd May 2011, 02:24 AM
Winning the War on Terror is like Winning the War on Bribery or Winning the War on Diplomacy, or, ironically enough, Winning the War on War.

Terrorism is nothing more than a tactic for pursuing political or ideological goals. As long as political and ideological goals exist, some people will use terror to achieve them.

If we were to be honest, the question would be "When is the war on Radical Islam won?" Because that's the war we're actually fighting, and currently we're losing pretty badly. A big part of why we're doing so badly is the people in power for the most part haven't managed to actually grasp the nature of the conflict.

Are we? I don't see any new countries falling for radicalism since Iran's last revolution. The events in countries like Egypt illustrate that it has even failed to radicalise countries in which there are deep injustices that the people greatly resent, especially the younger generation. If it can't prevail in such places in such circumstances I'd say it is a spent force. As usual extremism was found wanting by most folks.

I'd say radical Islam's time has passed, sure pockets will always remain and we'll be left with many radical Muslims but that always happens after a movement dissipates.

gumboot
3rd May 2011, 02:31 AM
Are we? I don't see any new countries falling for radicalism since Iran's last revolution.

Really? How popular was Radical Islam in the UK in 1979?


The events in countries like Egypt illustrate that it has even failed to radicalise countries in which there are deep injustices that the people greatly resent, especially the younger generation.

Radical Islam has been brutally repressed in Egypt for years. Despite this their popularity has continued to rise.


If it can't prevail in such places in such circumstances I'd say it is a spent force. As usual extremism was found wanting by most folks.

I'd say radical Islam's time has passed, sure pockets will always remain and we'll be left with many radical Muslims but that always happens after a movement dissipates.

Sure it's passed. Just like how the British eradicated any threat of Radical Islam after the Sepoy Mutiny... ;)

Radical Islam has a pretty constant history; it grows to a point where it tries to take on the authorities directly, is severely defeated, and then incubates, coming back a few years later to repeat the cycle. Every time it has reemerged in the last 200 years it has been stronger than before. There's no indications of this changing any time soon.

Based on what is happening in the thousands of extremist schools spreading across the globe (even into your own country), it's next come-back will be quite the event.

Darat
3rd May 2011, 02:40 AM
Really? How popular was Radical Islam in the UK in 1979?


What's that to do with my point? Are you saying the UK has fallen to "radical Islam"?




Radical Islam has been brutally repressed in Egypt for years. Despite this their popularity has continued to rise.


All opposition had been brutally repressed in Egypt yet the uprising still happened, but it was not led by the radical Islamists, at best they tried to play catch-up to claim some relevance in the uprising.




Sure it's passed. Just like how the British eradicated any threat of Radical Islam after the Sepoy Mutiny... ;)



And as I said we will be left with pockets and many radicalised Muslims, just like we are left with radicalised terrorists of other extremists once their popular support dissipates, but I was talking about as a movement. (I did make a mistake I think it can be argued that Afghanistan did fall to the radicals and that was after Iran's revolution.)


Radical Islam has a pretty constant history; it grows to a point where it tries to take on the authorities directly, is severely defeated, and then incubates, coming back a few years later to repeat the cycle. Every time it has reemerged in the last 200 years it has been stronger than before. There's no indications of this changing any time soon.

Based on what is happening in the thousands of extremist schools spreading across the globe (even into your own country), it's next come-back will be quite the event.

I look forward to you providing the evidence to support your quite extraordinary claims in the above.

Undesired Walrus
3rd May 2011, 02:46 AM
You've made exactly the same mistake the western governments have made. This conflict isn't about Al Qaeda, or terrorism. It's about Radical Islamic ideology.

Well, Al Qaeda are the posterboys for Radical Islamism. Any reduction in their support is encouraging.

Undesired Walrus
3rd May 2011, 02:55 AM
Really? How popular was Radical Islam in the UK in 1979?

Just because it may have become more popular in the UK in recent years doesn't mean Islam in the UK is just going in one direction. On the whole Muslims have got far less conservative since the seventies. How many back then would be tolerant to homosexuality or pre-marital sex?


Radical Islam has been brutally repressed in Egypt for years. Despite this their popularity has continued to rise.

Not nearly as popular as the secular Wafd party.

gumboot
3rd May 2011, 02:55 AM
What's that to do with my point? Are you saying the UK has fallen to "radical Islam"?

No, but Radical Islam has spread, quite remarkably, in the UK since 1979.


All opposition had been brutally repressed in Egypt yet the uprising still happened, but it was not led by the radical Islamists, at best they tried to play catch-up to claim some relevance in the uprising.

Violent uprisings are not the danger, when it comes to a dangerous ideology. Particularly not in the home of the Muslim Brotherhood.



And as I said we will be left with pockets and many radicalised Muslims, just like we are left with radicalised terrorists of other extremists once their popular support dissipates, but I was talking about as a movement. (I did make a mistake I think it can be argued that Afghanistan did fall to the radicals and that was after Iran's revolution.)

An ideology isn't a movement. It can exist in isolation for a very long time or spread very, very slowly. It's doesn't require the momentum of a movement. Those who think in terms of Radical Islam "overthrowing" the west don't really get it.


I look forward to you providing the evidence to support your quite extraordinary claims in the above.

Which ones? There's nothing particularly extraordinary about what I've said, if you're familiar with the history of Radical Islam, particular in the Pathan territories of what is now modern day Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. For two centuries the west has tried to stamp them out, and for two centuries they continued to grow. In the beginning they had a single isolated mountain outpost. Now they practically have two entire nations. Not bad for an ideology the British claim to have wiped out several times.

For the reference to your own country see the documentary "Undercover Mosque" and its sequel. These Saudi-funded extremist centres of thought exist throughout the planet, in their thousands. In the UK, 80% of domestically trained Muslim clerics come from Deobandi schools. Good times.

gumboot
3rd May 2011, 02:58 AM
Well, Al Qaeda are the posterboys for Radical Islamism.


Only amongst ignorant westerners. A lot of Radical Muslims are very anti Al Qaeda.

Undesired Walrus
3rd May 2011, 03:03 AM
Really? How popular was Radical Islam in the UK in 1979?

Just because it may have become more popular in the UK in recent years doesn't mean Islam in the UK is just going in one direction. On the whole Muslims have got far less conservative since the seventies. How many back then would be tolerant to homosexuality or pre-marital sex?


Radical Islam has been brutally repressed in Egypt for years. Despite this their popularity has continued to rise.

Not nearly as popular as the secular Al-Wafd party.

gumboot
3rd May 2011, 03:04 AM
Just because it may have become more popular in the UK in recent years doesn't mean Islam in the UK is just going in one direction.

80% of domestically trained Islamic Clerics in the UK come from extremist Deobandi schools. 80%. Wahhabism and Deobandism have exploded in the last two decades.



On the whole Muslims have got far less conservative since the seventies. How many back then would be tolerant to homosexuality or pre-marital sex?

How many are now? Undercover Mosque investigated some of the most "progressive" mosques in the UK, Mosques publicly applauded and supported by the government for their efforts to bridge the gap between cultures, and yet in secret they instructed their members in a dark-age ideology.


Not nearly as popular as the secular Wafd party.

You mean the party that was dissolved sixty years ago? Or are you referring to another Wafd Party?

Undesired Walrus
3rd May 2011, 03:05 AM
Only amongst ignorant westerners.

You are a charmer gumboot.

A lot of Radical Muslims are very anti Al Qaeda.

But how many have the talent that Al Qaeda had in launching attacks against the West?

Undesired Walrus
3rd May 2011, 03:09 AM
You mean the party that was dissolved sixty years ago? Or are you referring to another Wafd Party?

The one that is leading in the opinion polls.

gumboot
3rd May 2011, 03:11 AM
You are a charmer gumboot.

That wasn't meant as an attack against you, but against the ignorant western political leaders who made Al Qaeda the poster boy.



But how many have the talent that Al Qaeda had in launching attacks against the West?

At the risk of repeating myself, again;

You've made exactly the same mistake the western governments have made. This conflict isn't about Al Qaeda, or terrorism. It's about Radical Islamic ideology.

Terrorist attacks are not, never have been, and never will be a serious threat to the west.

gumboot
3rd May 2011, 03:18 AM
The one that is leading in the opinion polls.

Ah right. Got ya. The "New Wafd Party". I am pretty excited in what happens in the Egyptian elections. I think it will be a crucial election on the very matter I am raising in this thread. The "War on Terror" is a mislabelling of a clash between liberal western ideology and radical Islamic ideology. The west has put a pretty concerted effort into westernising Egypt over the last century or so. Genuine free elections will be the first real test in a long time of how well we have done.

I sincerely hope that we're on top. :D

Undesired Walrus
3rd May 2011, 03:27 AM
That wasn't meant as an attack against you, but against the ignorant western political leaders who made Al Qaeda the poster boy.

No worries.



At the risk of repeating myself, again;



Terrorist attacks are not, never have been, and never will be a serious threat to the west.

Well, I suppose so. But I have to say that I can't imagine radical Islam threatening the democratic society of the UK. Everyone's favourite British Jihadist Anjem Choudary may be on your TV screens a lot but he can't get a cup of tea in hardly any Arabic cafes in the East End (The owners kick him out).

Jekyll's Guest
3rd May 2011, 08:07 AM
When a better bogey man comes along?

Expect a switch when a second super power emerges. We could see 'plucky Afgani freedom fighters' in our media again in our lifetime.

MaGZ
3rd May 2011, 06:50 PM
The "War on Terror" will be ended when the US economy totally collapses and the good ole USA breaks up into smaller states

or

when the US breaks with Zionism and stops its Israel-first policy in the Middle East.

Virus
4th May 2011, 02:36 AM
Antisemite alert^^^^^

Yeah right because Islamofascism is all Israel's fault isn't it?