Lunar effect

[phildonnia]

From the Sacramento Bee, which I respect for a normally skeptical stance towards pseudoscience:

http://www.sacbee.com/2011/08/15/3838085/did-full-moon-help-sutter-memorial.html

In short, a local hospital delivered 45 babies over the course of two days. The explanation for this is a mystery to anyone who believes that births occur on a regular, evenly-spaced schedule.

According to "hospital spokesman" Gary Zavoral, who may or may not have education in astrophysics: The moon was full, and our bodies are 80% water. Because somehow the moon does something with water.

In defense of the Bee, they were simply quoting the spokesman.

[Soapy Sam]

Perhaps a power cut last winter?

[phildonnia]

Perhaps a power cut last winter?

I thought of something like that. There is a known mechanism by which the full moon seen reflecting beautifully off the ocean surface at night might lead to conception. However, in Sacramento, the moon just doesn't do that.

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Coincidence?

[Loss Leader]

So, variance isn't something that's taught in California statistics classes? Everything is just on the mean all the time? All basketball games end 98-94 and all babies are hermaphrodites?

[elgarak]

Was there a big power outage in the area nine months ago?

[Soapy Sam]

Was there a big power outage in the area nine months ago?
See post 2. We sceptics think alike.:D

[rjh01]

They do not say how many babies they normally deliver in 48 hours. If it is 40 then it is a non story.

[Skeptic Ginger]

I saw this garbage on the news and it really irked me because the newscaster claimed that "scientists are aware of the effect". :( Gag, it's a bunch of bull. Scientists have looked for the effect and found it did not exist.

On my first nursing job, 35 bed hospital, Craig Colorado, the nurses were constantly claiming this effect so I mapped out the 300+ births we'd had in the past year and compared them to the lunar cycle. There was absolutely no correlation whatsoever. I do believe I convinced my colleagues at least about the births if not about the activity in the ED.

[Hokulele]

See post 2. We sceptics think alike.:D


Yep.

http://www.nevadacounty.com/2010/11/power-november-snow-storm-nevada-county/

[Mister Earl]

Additionally, it doesn't matter how much water our bodies are comprised of. The moon affects water and other matter in the exact same way. If it only pulled at water gravitationally, there would be only one high tide per day. Not two.

[steve s]

Additionally, it doesn't matter how much water our bodies are comprised of. The moon affects water and other matter in the exact same way. If it only pulled at water gravitationally, there would be only one high tide per day. Not two.

And they seem to think that the moon exerts more gravity when it's full.

Steve S

[quarky]

It would be very disturbing if the hospital had the same number of births everyday.
Especially if it averaged out to a fraction.

[MattusMaximus]

And they seem to think that the moon exerts more gravity when it's full.

Steve S

It does, I mean it looks bigger, right?

;)

[MattusMaximus]

Additionally, it doesn't matter how much water our bodies are comprised of. The moon affects water and other matter in the exact same way. If it only pulled at water gravitationally, there would be only one high tide per day. Not two.

In my physics classes, I calculate the tidal effect from the moon on a human, and we find that it is less than one-billionth the weight of a paperclip. So, as I tell my students, whether or not you decide to wear a hat or use hair-gel on a given day has more gravitational influence on you than does the lunar tides.

Sort of puts this nonsense into perspective.

Too bad "journalists" can't be bothered to do some basic fact-checking :rolleyes:

[blobru]

They do not say how many babies they normally deliver in 48 hours. If it is 40 then it is a non story.


They say "Sutter Memorial has delivered 325,000 babies since 1937."

(325,000 / (74.5*365.25))*2 = ~24 babies / 48 hours. :stork-gir:stork-boy:stork-bab

So, 21 over their average for the last 74 or so years (not quite double). From which we can conclude: Slow news day.

[BStrong]

Completely un-scientific answer below:

I have no comments about births, but full-moon nights during the summer *seemed* to be busier wrt assaults, domestics, general bad acting out calls.

Please, I'm not making any scientific claim, just otj experience, so don't beat me too badly.

[LarianLeQuella]

Completely un-scientific answer below:

I have no comments about births, but full-moon nights during the summer *seemed* to be busier wrt assaults, domestics, general bad acting out calls.

Please, I'm not making any scientific claim, just otj experience, so don't beat me too badly.

Confirmation Bias (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias)

[godless dave]

In short, a local hospital delivered 45 babies over the course of two days. The explanation for this is a mystery to anyone who believes that births occur on a regular, evenly-spaced schedule.


Who believes that?

[godless dave]

Was there a big power outage in the area nine months ago?

I'm pretty sure that one's been debunked too.

[Moon-Spinner]

And they seem to think that the moon exerts more gravity when it's full.

Steve S

That's the first thing that came to my mind also. I re-read the article to see if I missed something, but nope...

[Gord_in_Toronto]

And they seem to think that the moon exerts more gravity when it's full.

Steve S


But of course it does! You only have to look at it! And sometimes when I look up it is very, very small and I have been told that it can actually disappear. If it's not there, then it can have no gravitational effect whatsoever. :scared:

[quarky]

Never mind gravity; the full moon, on a clear night, supplies a source of light. That light allows some night time activities that would be difficult without it; especially in rural areas.

Should that extra light at night occur during summer; on a weekend night; well...

Kids are going to ram around.

Go back a few hundred years with your imagination:
No flashlights. No street lights. No car lights.
That bright moonlight was very significant.

And it has nothing to do with gravity.
It has to do with being able to see.

[grmcdorman]

Never mind gravity; the full moon, on a clear night, supplies a source of light. That light allows some night time activities that would be difficult without it; especially in rural areas.

Should that extra light at night occur during summer; on a weekend night; well...

Kids are going to ram around.

Go back a few hundred years with your imagination:
No flashlights. No street lights. No car lights.
That bright moonlight was very significant.

And it has nothing to do with gravity.
It has to do with being able to see.
Except that the claim is more births when the moon is full. Somehow I don't think that a conception when the moon is full will ensure that the child is born when the moon is full.

[elgarak]

Except that the claim is more births when the moon is full. Somehow I don't think that a conception when the moon is full will ensure that the child is born when the moon is full.

Average human pregnancy 38 weeks. Lunar cycle 29.5 days. Hence average human pregnancy 9.01 lunar cycles. That's not too far off.

(Somehow I doubt that human sexual activity is too closely related to full moons in modern times, though. Unless you're a werewolf.)

[quarky]

Except that the claim is more births when the moon is full. Somehow I don't think that a conception when the moon is full will ensure that the child is born when the moon is full.

Yeah, that is pretty nuts.
I was just trying to point out that there is actual significance in a full moon, with (most likely) certain ramifications.
The woo is insane.
The light is not.

[Roboramma]

They say "Sutter Memorial has delivered 325,000 babies since 1937."

(325,000 / (74.5*365.25))*2 = ~24 babies / 48 hours. :stork-gir:stork-boy:stork-bab

So, 21 over their average for the last 74 or so years (not quite double). From which we can conclude: Slow news day.

Taking into account changes in the population and age-distribution may impact things as well.

Also, it seems this happened in August, and according this (http://www.panix.com/~murphy/bday.html) link, August has the highest number of births of any month in the year. According to the link, from a sample of 480,040 birthdays, it looks like 43,000 were in August, whereas 480,040/12 ~= 40,000.

(For those who didn't click the link, it's "An Analysis of the Distribution of Birthdays in a Calendar Year (http://www.panix.com/~murphy/bday.html)")

[Skeptic Ginger]

It does, I mean it looks bigger, right?

;)
While it does not have enough gravitational force to affect a human body, the reason the tides are higher on the new and full moons are because the Sun and Moon have a combined effect then and they don't when the Moon is at a 900 angle from the Sun.

[Skeptic Ginger]

Completely un-scientific answer below:

I have no comments about births, but full-moon nights during the summer *seemed* to be busier wrt assaults, domestics, general bad acting out calls.

Please, I'm not making any scientific claim, just otj experience, so don't beat me too badly.

It's due to your selective memory and confirmation bias, not due to actual increase in activity. When you observe objectively (meaning actually record the data not just recall it) the effect disappears.

[blobru]

Taking into account changes in the population and age-distribution may impact things as well.

Also, it seems this happened in August, and according this (http://www.panix.com/~murphy/bday.html) link, August has the highest number of births of any month in the year. According to the link, from a sample of 480,040 birthdays, it looks like 43,000 were in August, whereas 480,040/12 ~= 40,000.

(For those who didn't click the link, it's "An Analysis of the Distribution of Birthdays in a Calendar Year (http://www.panix.com/~murphy/bday.html)")


So much for spring fever, eh (more like fall's balls). :Banane20::Banane41: