CIA warning: Al Qaida will attack US troops in Iraq

[Wayne Grabert]

Have I not been warning you on this board about this very thing for months now? "Wayne, where is your evidence?" Besides my past references to geography and history, how about this? (http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=68&ncid=68&e=3&u=/nyt/20030308/ts_nyt/c_i_a__warns_u_s__troops_of_attacks_in_iraq_by_ter ror_groups) C.I.A. Warns U.S. Troops of Attacks in Iraq by Terror Groups
Sat Mar 8, 2:58 PM ET

By THOM SHANKER and DAVID JOHNSTON The New York Times

WASHINGTON, March 8 The Central Intelligence Agency (news - web sites) has warned that terrorists based in Iraq (news - web sites) are planning attacks against American and allied forces inside the country after any invasion, government counterterrorism officials say.

The agency's previously undisclosed assessment has circulated among senior Bush administration officials. It describes both the risks of terror attacks on American forces inside Iraq if an invasion occurs and the danger of similar attacks on troops already massing in the region.

The assessment goes beyond the threat posed by Saddam Hussein (news - web sites)'s military forces, predicting for the first time that groups that the Bush administration has said are given haven by Mr. Hussein's government may become engaged in the war, even if Iraq's military is defeated and the government overthrown. The administration has said that terrorists operating inside Iraq are affiliated with Al Qaeda, and that they are either tolerated by the Baghdad government or are based in parts of the country where the government exercises little control.

The conclusions are based on recently collected intelligence in the form of intercepted communications, "glimpses" of four to eight midlevel Qaeda operatives said to have been spotted in Iraq and an analysis of the organization's prior tactics, according to administration officials.

"The Al Qaeda network is intent on attacking U.S. interests throughout Iraq, as are other extremist Islamic groups," said one official who has read the C.I.A. threat assessment.

The assessment is just one part of the array of intelligence being gathered by government agencies as part of the continuing campaign against terrorism, and is particularly important to the military right now as the United States and Britain gather their forces for a possible attack on Iraq.

It suggests that terrorist fighters may blend in with the Iraqi civilian population to get close enough to conduct strikes against allied troops during an invasion, officials said. Or they may attack American forces trying to stabilize Iraq after a war.
That's just the first 40% of the article.

Gee, maybe I know what the hell I'm talking about afterall. :eek:

Edited to add: If you read the above carefully, it does NOT establish a link between al Qaida (or al Qaeda) and Hussein's government. There are terrorists operating within the United States also.

NOTE: The link URL is apparently too long for my link to work. Go here (http://news.yahoo.com/fc?tmpl=fc&cid=34&in=us&cat=us_armed_forces) and click on the link to the full story.

[rikzilla]

No links?

What about the al Qaida camp in northern Iraq that Colin Powell spoke of?

How 'bout Ramzi Yusef? #1. He was known to be an agent of the Mukhabarrat before his capture. He masterminded the 1993 WTC bomb. He was busted after setting his apartment on fire in Manila by mixing the bomb making chemicals in a sloppy manner. In Manila documents found in the apartment linked him to the plot to bomb 11 US airliners over the Pacific...these same papers linked this plot to the Abu Sayyef group which is itself a wholly owned subsidiary of al Qaida.

If that's not enough,...his uncle was just captured...Khalid Sheik Muhammed...himself the #3 man in the al Qaida chain of command.

Ramzi and Khalid are both Baluchs...and were both busted in Baluchistani Pakistan. Baluchs have been used by Saddam Hussein's intelligence agents for many, many years. The Baluchs are like the Kurds...no homeland. Baluchistan encompases western Iran, eastern Pakistan and southeastern Afghanistan. The Iraqis used the Baluchs to destabilize Iran during the Iran-Iraq war. Baluchs are also heavily represented in al Qaida as evidenced by Khalid Sheik Muhammed.

Connect the dots at your leisure.

-zilla

[corplinx]

The recently released Bin Laden tape was like a call to arms for Al. Q. The tape seemed to say "Even though we don't support support Saddam, he will fight americans so help him". In the past of course, Saddam didn't fit in with their theocratic philosophy.

I had no doubts there were affiliated operatives in Iraq. It is a vast country and easy to fall through the cracks in. I am sure their presence was either tolerated or unknown but of course there was no official link between them and Saddam.

I just hope they make it easy and become human shields. :)

Maybe Hamas, Hezbollah, and Islamic Jihad will join in too and save us time and dollars later on?

[Wayne Grabert]

Originally posted by rikzilla
What about the al Qaida camp in northern Iraq that Colin Powell spoke of? What about the link between Bush and al Qaida? Al Qaida terrorists who hijacked planes on 9/11 were living in Florida where GWB's brother is governor. That's a stronger link than the al Qaida camps in an area of Iraq that is not in Hussein's control.

Originally posted by rikzilla
How 'bout Ramzi Yusef? #1. He was known to be an agent of the Mukhabarrat before his capture. And in 1985 Jonathan Pollard was a US Navy Intelligence analyst who was providing military secrets to Israel who in turn was giving them to the KGB in exchange for allowing Russian Jews to immigrate to Israel. Does than implicate Ronald Reagan?

If there were a legitimate link, Rik, Bush and Powell would have made a big deal about it by now instead of making baseless assertions and implications. Read the full article in my post (using the link at the bottom of the post). It discusses the issue of trying to link Saddam and al Qaida.

[Wayne Grabert]

Originally posted by corplinx
The recently released Bin Laden tape was like a call to arms for Al. Q. The tape seemed to say "Even though we don't support support Saddam, he will fight americans so help him". Actually, it specifically said it would be wrong to fight "the crusaders" to defend any of the current Arab regimes. Bin Laden said that Muslims should fight "the crusaders" only to defend Islam. Bin Laden didn't say anything remotely like "so help him."

[Troll]

Well that's a freaking relief. They're gonna attack us in Iraq? Saves time and money from hunting the bastards in other countries, doesn't it?

[Wayne Grabert]

Originally posted by Troll
Well that's a freaking relief. They're gonna attack us in Iraq? Saves time and money from hunting the bastards in other countries, doesn't it? What makes you think they will abandon their cells in other countries? They won't. They'll be fighting us on all fronts with thousands of new recruits and millions of more dollars of financial support.

[Pyrrho]

Are we supposed to be surprised? What else is al Quaida/Qaeda/Qaida supposed to do? Sit on their butts and sing Glory Hallelujah?

[Troll]

Originally posted by Wayne Grabert
What makes you think they will abandon their cells in other countries? They won't. They'll be fighting us on all fronts with thousands of new recruits and millions of more dollars of financial support.

cells? a few people here and there? No biggie. we're looking for them and that's the money/time consuming thing. Them all gathering together to fight a war with us makes it freaking easier. May I add a huge "duh"?

[rikzilla]

Originally posted by Wayne Grabert
What about the link between Bush and al Qaida? Al Qaida terrorists who hijacked planes on 9/11 were living in Florida where GWB's brother is governor. That's a stronger link than the al Qaida camps in an area of Iraq that is not in Hussein's control.

And in 1985 Jonathan Pollard was a US Navy Intelligence analyst who was providing military secrets to Israel who in turn was giving them to the KGB in exchange for allowing Russian Jews to immigrate to Israel. Does than implicate Ronald Reagan?

If there were a legitimate link, Rik, Bush and Powell would have made a big deal about it by now instead of making baseless assertions and implications. Read the full article in my post (using the link at the bottom of the post). It discusses the issue of trying to link Saddam and al Qaida.

You are obfuscating. Yusef was a Mukhabarrat agent...that is a known and documented fact. Yusef was captured while planning attacks with Abu Sayyef (which is a branch of al Qaida)...another fact. Yussef's uncle is the FREAKING #3 MAN IN THE AL QAIDA CHAIN OF COMMAND ---also a fact.

You failed to address any of these facts. Instead you go on about Johnathon Pollard and Florida....??? You are not addressing my factual links...you are simply obfuscating. Can you explain why an Iraqi intel agent who has committed terrorism in the US, and who was working with Abu Sayyef....and who's own Uncle is Al Qaida's #3 man = no links between Iraq and Al Qaida???

Even a blind man could see it.

-zilla

[Wayne Grabert]

Originally posted by rikzilla


You are obfuscating. Yusef was a Mukhabarrat agent...that is a known and documented fact. Yusef was captured while planning attacks with Abu Sayyef (which is a branch of al Qaida)...another fact. Yussef's uncle is the FREAKING #3 MAN IN THE AL QAIDA CHAIN OF COMMAND ---also a fact.

You failed to address any of these facts. Instead you go on about Johnathon Pollard and Florida....??? You are not addressing my factual links...you are simply obfuscating. Can you explain why an Iraqi intel agent who has committed terrorism in the US, and who was working with Abu Sayyef....and who's own Uncle is Al Qaida's #3 man = no links between Iraq and Al Qaida???

Even a blind man could see it.

-zilla No, Rik, it all adds up to conjecture! Was his goddamned uncle the #3 man in Mukhabarat also? No.

You fail to understand my point about Pollard. Let's say Pollard had an uncle who was the #3 man in the JDL. Then what? Is Reagan guilty now? Pollard was a Zionist and a traitor to America. His actions were not the policy of the intelligence agency he was working for. Get it yet?

So Yusef was an Islamic extremist (and a Pakistani, not an Iraqi) who supposedly was working for Mukhabarat at one time earlier in his life. I suppose if he had worked at McDonald's as a teenager that would mean McDonald's was a supporter of al Qaida too, wouldn't it? Notice I said "supposedly," since that "fact" is really nothing more than speculation on the part of Laurie Mylroie. Did she even bother to mention that Yusef was a Pakastani, not an Iraqi? I doubt it. So much for your blind man's "facts."

[Wayne Grabert]

Rik, it is also dishonest of you to misrepresent Laurie Mylroie. Even she doesn't claim that it is a fact that Yusef was an Iraqi agent. She says that he was likely an Iraqi agent, though she hasn't had much success convincing any of the intelligence agencies of this. Why should she? She hasn't convinced herself yet.

Here is what Mylroie has to say about Yusef. (http://www.fas.org/irp/world/iraq/956-tni.htm) Ramzi Yousef, a.k.a. Abdul Basit Karim -the key man; likely Iraqi agent. There's that pesky word: likely.

[corplinx]

Wayne, I will try to find a transcript of the Bin Laden tape and see if my interpretation is wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

However, let me just state again that I know there is no _serious_ collusion between Sadam and Al Q. however, I do not care either.

[corplinx]

Originally posted by corplinx
However, let me just state again that I know there is no _serious_ collusion between Sadam and Al Q.

let me revise, i see no evidence of serious collusion, there could be collusion but i see no compelling evidence

[Wayne Grabert]

Originally posted by corplinx
Wayne, I will try to find a transcript of the Bin Laden tape and see if my interpretation is wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.
Good luck. If you succeed, post the link. I've already read a translation of the full transcript, but I tried in vain to find it. On one of the threads on this board back then someone posted a link to the transcript. I believe it was from MSN's news site, but it didn't show up in Goggle when I looked back then.

[aerocontrols]

I think this (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2751019.stm) is what you're looking for.

MattJ

[rikzilla]

Originally posted by Wayne Grabert
Rik, it is also dishonest of you to misrepresent Laurie Mylroie. Even she doesn't claim that it is a fact that Yusef was an Iraqi agent. She says that he was likely an Iraqi agent, though she hasn't had much success convincing any of the intelligence agencies of this. Why should she? She hasn't convinced herself yet.

Here is what Mylroie has to say about Yusef. (http://www.fas.org/irp/world/iraq/956-tni.htm) There's that pesky word: likely.

Wayne!!

You actually read Mylroie!!!! :D ;) Wow! You da man! To paraphrase an old and trite saying "If I can only get one guy to read Mylroie, then it was all worth it!!" :D :D

Yes, you caught me...good for you. But remember, Yusef was not really just a Pakistani,...he is a Baluch, as is his uncle. If you read Mylroie you will also know the signifigance of the people of the Baluchistan regions of Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan....and their close working ties with Iraqi intelligence over the last 30 years.

Thanks for taking the time to read it Wayne. You caught me, but only in characterizing her claims as a bit more substantial than she did. You should look in the footnotes and check her research tho...it seems to me that she's right about Yusef. If she is, it's a hell of a good tie in between Iraq and al Qaida.

You're a good guy Wayne....(though wrong of course) ;)

-zilla

[JAR]

Originally posted by Troll
Well that's a freaking relief. They're gonna attack us in Iraq? Saves time and money from hunting the bastards in other countries, doesn't it?

I agree. If they do attack, the U.S. military forces will beat them again.

[Wayne Grabert]

Originally posted by rikzilla

Thanks for taking the time to read it Wayne. You caught me, but only in characterizing her claims as a bit more substantial than she did.
You tricked me into it. :D

[Wayne Grabert]

Originally posted by aerocontrols
I think this (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/2751019.stm) is what you're looking for.

MattJ
Good man! Thanks, Matt. From binny himself: First, showing good intentions. This means fighting should be for the sake of the one God.

It should not be for championing ethnic groups, or for championing the non-Islamic regimes in all Arab countries, including Iraq.

[Jedi Knight]

The CIA special operations soldiers are hunting Al Qaida day and night, 24/7, 365.

I am very confident in the force protection strategy employed by US forces when deployed overseas. I don't think we will see any more situations like what happened in Beirut with the US Marines.

So Al Qaida has two major hurdles to overcome--escaping the hunt of them by masculine American CIA special forces that are so dangerous the mere mentioning of them strikes fear into the heart of the enemy, and the major hurdle of a very sophisticated force protection plan for our deployed soldiers.

Attacks on our forces are more likely when the war starts and the line of control is fluid. That is when our soldiers need to be very alert for sudden sneaky Al Qaida-type homicide bombings.

JK

[DrBenway]

I listen to Bin Laden's words, imagining that I'm a Muslim and I'm afraid. The story of the 300 mujahadin pounded by "smart bombs," yet largely unscathed, is powerful. The fact that this bombardment happened during Ramadan is also stirring. The reference to other wars against the Muslim people gives hope of victory against impossible odds. The call to fight for God only and not for any political standard seems to validate the noble and holy purpose of the battle.

I think our boys are in for some serious sh*t over there. I only hope the resistance is poorly armed. And I hope the shi'ites aren't as cool with OBL as so many other Muslims seem to be.

I wish there were a number of Mulsim leaders out there who could say something as stirring *against* OBL's rhetoric. I'd like a few voices for peace to get as much attention on al Jazeera as OBL.

But where are those moderates?

[corplinx]

Originally posted by DrBenway

But where are those moderates?

My guess is moderates don't get good ratings.

[rikzilla]

Originally posted by DrBenway
I listen to Bin Laden's words, imagining that I'm a Muslim and I'm afraid. The story of the 300 mujahadin pounded by "smart bombs," yet largely unscathed, is powerful. The fact that this bombardment happened during Ramadan is also stirring. The reference to other wars against the Muslim people gives hope of victory against impossible odds. The call to fight for God only and not for any political standard seems to validate the noble and holy purpose of the battle.

I think our boys are in for some serious sh*t over there. I only hope the resistance is poorly armed. And I hope the shi'ites aren't as cool with OBL as so many other Muslims seem to be.

I wish there were a number of Mulsim leaders out there who could say something as stirring *against* OBL's rhetoric. I'd like a few voices for peace to get as much attention on al Jazeera as OBL.

But where are those moderates?

What? You actually believed that story that only 6% of his people were lost at Tora Bora??? It's first rate *********. sure, perhaps his followers will believe it....and let them. The tactical advantage of "covered trenchs" is a chimera. It's almost as bad as those old "duck and cover" commercials in the 60's! By all means let them dig their trenchs! :D :D ;) Our guys,..after they stop laughing...will have a field day killing the idiots who have listened to Bin Laden's bad advice. Sure, HE made it out of Tora Bora...but only just....and most definately not with 94% of his force!!! (I bet he didn't even make it out with 94% of his own ass) That's just the biggest fu@king joke I've heard yet!

Talk about propaganda!!! :p :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

-zilla

BTW: Their moderates will start popping up on al Jazeera after it becomes more and more obvious that the "jihad" is a lost cause.

[DrBenway]

Bin Ladin's alive. To his Muslim listeners in Iraq, that fact alone must validate his words. His voice on al-Jazeera is proof to our enemies that we're not all-powerful. The enemy's fighting spirit must have been strengthened by his words.

I don't think there's anything we could say to counter OBL's brillant propaganda move. But I do think that a well respected Muslim leader in the area able to argue the illegality of OBL's cause in a coherent manner might make a difference. I'd like to hear such a leader talk about a new future for Iraq without Saddam or a demagogue like OBL running the show with an iron fist. I'd like to hear some rhetoric about a new government where the voice of the Muslim people would be heard.

I'm not worried about the Republican Guard particularly. I'm worried about a guerrilla war with the Muslim people within Iraq. I hope they're poorly armed.

I would guess that Iran would supply any populist movement in Iraq with arms.

[BillyTK]

Bin Laden must be wetting himself. Not only will the US get rid of one of his main enemies for him, but in doing so they'll give him a propaganda coup which will have polarise the muslim rank and file. And BL doesn't have to lift a finger...

[crackmonkey]

I'm sure he'll cackle about that endlessly in his jail cell...