The JREF 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Poll -- Let's get the ball rolling!

[shemp]

OK, I'm bored today, so it's time to get the unofficial JREF 2004 U.S. Presidential Election Poll going.

This isn't a poll to ask who you would vote for. This poll asks what you think the final result will be. So what do you think will be the final result in November?

Also, I'll post a new poll monthly, to see how opinion changes between now and November.

[Hutch]

Went for the electoral vote decider....I still see the electorate pretty evenly divided but this time the Democrats will win Florida by making sure there are no confused Hebrews (description stolen from Robin Williams) and that will tip the balance.

Not that we'll notcie any difference.....or like the old rock song says..."Meet the new Boss--same as the Old Boss"

[daenku32]

What about Kerry 60%+ -- Bush 40%- -- Bush wins ??

It could happen. You never know.

[HarryKeogh]

my vote's for Ficus.

[Luke T.]

Bush 60%+

[Blue Monk]

Lyndon LaRouche 75%

[Marc]

In states using Diebold: Bush - 115% :D

[BobK]

I think you misspelled the candidate's name in the last category.

You must have meant the ever popular Ralph Nader.

[subgenius]

Originally posted by Marc
In states using Diebold: Bush - 115% :D
That's my pick.

[subgenius]

"It's not the people who vote that count. It's the people who count the votes."

[charley_bigtime]

I didn't vote - there's not an option on the poll for "Lawyers."

[varwoche]

I predict Bush will win, seeing as he has expanded his lead in the polls (slightly) despite a horrific several weeks in Iraq. If Iraq doesn't sink him, nothing will.
article (http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040420-121231-1541r.htm)

[Yahweh]

Shemp wins, Shemp always wins.

[Rocky]

I can't stand Bush for bringing religion into everything.
&
Every time Kerry opens his mouth he turns away as well.


Why can't we find a quality Independent candidate?

Someone I can actually feel good voting for....

[MLynn]

I voted 50/50 w/Kerry winning the electorate.

But really, I left my Sylvia Browne hat at work... ;)

[The Fool]

Vote early, vote often.....

in australia rabid supporters of some politicians will vote multiple times....You do not need to prove ID, just state a name and address....so they vote in the name of people they know are not voting, people overseas, people recently dead (but still on the rolls) ..... Many dead people vote in Australian elections. Its a way of remaining active and politically interested in the post death period of your life.

[Frank Newgent]

Originally posted by varwoche
I predict Bush will win, seeing as he has expanded his lead in the polls (slightly) despite a horrific several weeks in Iraq. If Iraq doesn't sink him, nothing will.
article (http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040420-121231-1541r.htm)
People getting their fundamental interests wrong is what American political life is all about.

Thomas Frank (http://www.ruralwomyn.net/kansas_quote.html)

[jj]

My opinion:

Kerry gets 60+% of the vote.
Bush wins by calling an emergency and ordering Diebold to shade the count.

[subgenius]

Originally posted by Frank Newgent

People getting their fundamental interests wrong is what American political life is all about.

Thomas Frank (http://www.ruralwomyn.net/kansas_quote.html)
Worth saving.

[Frank Newgent]

..........There's a reason you probably haven't heard much about this aspect of the heartland [the blight of Emporia, Kansas]. This kind of blight can't be easily blamed on the usual suspects like government or counterculture or high-hat urban policy. The villain that did this to my home state wasn't the Supreme Court or Lyndon Johnson, showering dollars on the poor or putting criminals back on the street. The culprit is the conservatives' beloved free-market capitalism, a system that, at it's most unrestrained, has little use for small town merchants or the agricultural system that supported the small towns in the first place. Deregulated capitalism is what has allowed Wal-Marts to crush local businesses across the Midwest and, even more importantly, what has driven agriculture, the region’s raison d’etre, to a state of near-collapse.

People who have never lived in a farm state often think of all agricultural interests as essentially identical: farmers and huge agribusiness conglomerates want the same things, they believe. But in reality the interests of the two are more like those of the chicken and Colonel Sanders of backlash lore. And Colonel Sanders has been on an unbroken winning streak now for twenty-some years, with farm legislation, trade policy, and a regulatory climate all crafted to strengthen the conglomerates while weakening farmers. For shareholders and upper management of companies like Archer Daniels Midland and Tyson the result has been miraculous; for town like Emporia it has been ruinous.


SNIP


Let us pause for a moment and gaze across this landscape of dysfunction. A state is spectacularly ill served by the Reagan-Bush stampede of deregulation, privatization, and laissez-faire. It sees its countryside depopulated, its towns disintegrate, its cities stagnate – and its wealthy enclaves sparkle, behind their remote-controlled security gates. The state erupts in revolt, making headlines around the world with its bold defiance of convention. But what do its revolutionaries demand? More of the very measures that have brought ruination on them and their neighbors in the first place.


Thomas Frank (http://www.ruralwomyn.net/kansas_quote.html)

Sorry for the hijack, but...

I could test the thesis. My route takes me through Emporia tomorrow and I just bought a T shirt with this (http://www.deepscience.com/justsilly/silly%20pics/bush.jpg) image on the Zocalo in Mexico City.

What happens if I wear it wandering the Emporia Wal-Mart? I think I may need some bubble wrap or something...

[subgenius]

I think the bubble wrap's in aisle 9.

[shemp]

Bubble wrap? You wear it there, you might need a bullet-proof vest.

The situation in much of the U.S. is like this: You're standing there minding your own business when a rich fat white CEO comes up and smacks you over the head a few times with a 2x4 and takes your wallet. What do you do? Why, of course, blame the feminists, foreigners, blacks, hispanics, arabs, commies, etc. etc. etc.

The majority of Americans are too ignorant, lazy and stupid to think deeply about their situation. Nothing is their own fault. It's always somebody else's fault. So how is the present situation their own fault? Because the majority have put these bastards in power, either by actively voting for them or by giving up and not voting, and by these actions they have acquiesced (don't use that word in Kansas, they'll think you're from Mars) to their own misery. They are so sure that the groups named above are the cause of their problems, and that the "goddamn" Democrats are in cahoots with those groups, that they will vote Republicans who, for all practical purposes, come into their homes and steal their belongings and expect them to thank them for it.

The Bush administration and the Republican party are the biggest protection racket ever. They shake you down, and promise that you won't get hurt as long as you cooperate. How is that different from the Mafia?

If Bush is reelected, I can't wait to see what he'll do without the concern for having to run again. When the majority allow this to happen, they get what they deserve. Me, I'll be looking for job and housing possibilities in Canada or Australia. (Yeah, Fool, I might be your next-door neighbor soon!)

[Mr Manifesto]

Originally posted by shemp

If Bush is reelected, I can't wait to see what he'll do without the concern for having to run again. When the majority allow this to happen, they get what they deserve. Me, I'll be looking for job and housing possibilities in Canada or Australia. (Yeah, Fool, I might be your next-door neighbor soon!)

Dude, wait until Howard gets voted out first.

[Kodiak]

Outright Bush electoral college and popular vote victory, but at <60%.

[Kodiak]

Originally posted by shemp
The Bush administration and the Republican party are the biggest protection racket ever. They shake you down, and promise that you won't get hurt as long as you cooperate. How is that different from the Mafia?

Since when does a "shakedown" go like this?:

GOP: "We cut some taxes. Here is some of you money back..."
Citizen: "Thanks!"
Dem: "Protection racket!...Mafia!"

:nope: :rolleyes:

Try this on instead, and tell me which is a better fit:

"The Democrats and the Democratic Party are the biggest protection racket ever. They shake you down, and promise that they will take good care of you and make everything better as long as you cooperate. How is that different from the Mafia?

:p

[varwoche]

A heartening opinion for the Kerry camp, from good old Dick Morris:
Dubya in Trouble (http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/opedcolumnists/22968.htm)
the polling organizations that track the presidential race in daily surveys have concluded that the contest has settled into a stalemate ... This "tie" is terrible news for the Bush camp. One of the (very few) immutable laws of politics is that the undecided vote almost always goes against the incumbent.

[American]

Write-in "JERK" in 2004.

[shemp]

Originally posted by American
Write-in "JERK" in 2004.

Sorry, I'm not writing you in.

[MLynn]

Originally posted by jj
My opinion:

Kerry gets 60+% of the vote.
Bush wins by calling an emergency and ordering Diebold to shade the count.
Ya know, it could happen...

[Iamme]

(Mr Manifesto)

If Bush is reelected, I can't wait to see what he'll do without the concern for having to run again.

----------------------------------------------------

Stop scaring me like this. I don't have any fingernails left NOW. And we are 6 months away from that day of reckoning. :v:

[Frank Newgent]

Originally posted by subgenius
I think the bubble wrap's in aisle 9.
The 12" by 175' box of 3/16" bubble wrap was on sale for $18.97 at Staples, easily a better deal than the smaller rolls at Wal Mart.

Other circumstances remind me of the old saying: "Everybody's a liberal 'til it costs 'em a quarter."

Likewise clever until around fifteen or twenty grand.

[Lurker]

Originally posted by Marc
In states using Diebold: Bush - 115% :D

As a former employee of said company I would probably agree! :)

Lurker

[slimshady2357]

Wow! I can't believe the results so far :eek:

23 votes think Bush will win one way or another and 51 for Kerry! More than twice as many people here think Kerry will beat Bush???

I hope it's true, but it seems doubtful to me. I voted for Bush winning by about 55-60%.

Is it really that good down there? I thought Bush was still very popular....

Adam

[shemp]

Originally posted by slimshady2357
Wow! I can't believe the results so far :eek:

23 votes think Bush will win one way or another and 51 for Kerry! More than twice as many people here think Kerry will beat Bush???

I hope it's true, but it seems doubtful to me. I voted for Bush winning by about 55-60%.

Is it really that good down there? I thought Bush was still very popular....

Adam

Unfortunately, he is still very popular among morons, psychopaths, and mental defectives, which means about 51% of the U.S. population.

[fishbob]

The way I figure it, if Bush wins, we all lose. If Kerry wins, we all lose, except that Bush will lose too, which is sort of a win for everybody but Bush, even though the Bush supporters will think of it as a loss, which it isn't.

[New Ager]

Hey Fishbob,

Is that what you would call a lose, lose situation?! ;)

[New Ager]

Originally posted by Blue Monk
Lyndon LaRouche 75%

This is correct, except change the percentage symbol for votes. :D

[Kodiak]

Originally posted by shemp


Unfortunately, he is still very popular among morons, psychopaths, and mental defectives, which means about 51% of the U.S. population.

Ahhh...

The elitist finally resorts to demonization and name-calling.


:p :dl:

[WildCat]

Originally posted by Kodiak


Ahhh...

The elitist finally resorts to demonization and name-calling.


:p :dl:
They're not elitist, they're just better than you and smarter. Their mamas told them so. Are you calling their mamas liars?

The Kerry campaign is collapsing, he has no ideas to speak of and isn't inspiring anyone. Hatred of Bush isn't going to win the election for Kerry. I haven't ever heard a Kerry supporter say why they like Kerry, only that they hate Bush. Not enough to win an election, IMHO.

[Dorian Gray]

I actually voted for Bush before I voted against him.

[subgenius]

I was actually for the war until we found out we were lied to.
Only a dummy wouldn't change their mind in the face of new evidence, and changing circumstance.

[Frank Newgent]

Originally posted by WildCat

They're not elitist...
Who said they were?

Hey, guess which Kansas county (http://www.polidata.org/en2000/ks00pcy.pdf) Gore won in 2000?

Just the one where the new NASCAR (http://www.nascar.com/races/tracks/kan/) track was constructed.

[subgenius]

"Elitist" is just the slur du jour. Like "liberal".
Name calling as opposed to thinking about issues.
Hey "slur du jour", I kinda like that. Think I'll copyright it.

[shemp]

I guess I'm an "elitist" for being in the minority that think before they vote.

I guess I am supposed to have respect for people who used to have decent-paying jobs or who used to have farms, who now work at Wal-Mart for minimum wage, and can't understand that the Bush administration sends their jobs overseas and sends their sons and daughters off to die for his re-election, and they still support him. The only word for these people is "moron." One doesn't have to be an "elitist" to see that.

"Elitist"? I work a 9-5 job, make about $50,000 a year, which in this part of the country is decent but isn't a hell of a lot of money. My wife has been out of work for 18 months, I have a $1,100/month mortgage plus a $300/month car payment plus all the usual other bills, I pay my taxes like all other working stiffs, and I'm an "elitist"?

I'll tell you what an "elitist" is pal. It's the guy who doesn't have to work 9-5, who lives off investments and/or inheritance. The guy whose name appears in the shareholder reports under "5% or more stockholders." The guy whose sons and daughters don't go off to fight because they bought their way into Yale or Harvard. The guy who thinks nothing of blowing several hundred or thousands on a night out. The guy who doesn't have to do his own driving. The guy who sits in his big comfy chair at the club drinking $30 shots of scotch and smoking $50 cigars. That's who's really putting down the working people, who laughs at them while he courts their votes, who thinks it's "quaint" the way the common people live. Most of these guys are Republicans.

The "elitist" is the guy who benefits from the fact that 60% of U.S. corporations pay no income tax. That sure helps out the bottom line and drives up the stock price. It sure doesn't create jobs. Most of the job creation in the U.S. is in small startup companies, usually run by people who themselves got the axe. But it isn't enough to balance out the net loss of jobs going overseas plus the higher-paying jobs that have turned into low-paying Wal-Mart jobs.

"Elitist"? I'm the same as your next door neighbor, except I'm smart enough to see through the bullsh*t. The majority of Americans aren't. They buy into the promises of the Bush Protection Racket.

[Frank Newgent]

The place I'm talking about goes by different names. Some call it America. Others call it Middle America. It has also come to be known as Red America, in reference to the maps that were produced on the night of the 2000 presidential election. People in Blue America, which is my part of America, tend to live around big cities on the coasts. People in Red America tend to live on farms or in small towns or small cities far away from the coasts. Things are different there.

Everything that people in my neighborhood do without motors, the people in Red America do with motors. We sail; they powerboat. We cross-country ski; they snowmobile. We hike; they drive ATVs. We have vineyard tours; they have tractor pulls. When it comes to yard work, they have rider mowers; we have illegal aliens.

Different sorts of institutions dominate life in these two places. In Red America churches are everywhere. In Blue America Thai restaurants are everywhere. In Red America they have QVC, the Pro Bowlers Tour, and hunting. In Blue America we have NPR, Doris Kearns Goodwin, and socially conscious investing. In Red America the Wal-Marts are massive, with parking lots the size of state parks. In Blue America the stores are small but the markups are big. You'll rarely see a Christmas store in Blue America, but in Red America, even in July, you'll come upon stores selling fake Christmas trees, wreath-decorated napkins, Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer collectible thimbles and spoons, and little snow-covered villages.

We in the coastal metro Blue areas read more books and attend more plays than the people in the Red heartland. We're more sophisticated and cosmopolitan—just ask us about our alumni trips to China or Provence, or our interest in Buddhism. But don't ask us, please, what life in Red America is like. We don't know. We don't know who Tim LaHaye and Jerry B. Jenkins are, even though the novels they have co-written have sold about 40 million copies over the past few years. We don't know what James Dobson says on his radio program, which is listened to by millions. We don't know about Reba or Travis. We don't know what happens in mega-churches on Wednesday evenings, and some of us couldn't tell you the difference between a fundamentalist and an evangelical, let alone describe what it means to be a Pentecostal. Very few of us know what goes on in Branson, Missouri, even though it has seven million visitors a year, or could name even five NASCAR drivers, although stock-car races are the best-attended sporting events in the country. We don't know how to shoot or clean a rifle. We can't tell a military officer's rank by looking at his insignia. We don't know what soy beans look like when they're growing in a field.


http://www.theatlantic.com/issues/2001/12/brooks.htm

Sound reasonable to you? Did you know that the top three soybean producing states - Illinois, Iowa and Minnesota - fell to Gore in 2000?

[Regnad Kcin]

What, no choice for Pat Paulson? (Yeah, I know he's dead now, but hope springs eternal!)

[TillEulenspiegel]

You know the whole country is so evenly divided and not in static terms like Party affiliation used to mean in the 50's-70's, but completely divisively divided that unless there is an October surprise the outcome is a coin toss.

The thing tho to conceder is this election is not monopoler in it's thrust ( "it's the economy stupid " ) altho Bush has seemingly painted himself that way -"I am a War president". Look to D.C today at the pro/anti choice rallies, the economy is a huge concern to many people and the cost of drugs/health care will also factor in.. This will be a more dynamic election then Clinton/Bush or Gore/Bush. As diverse as the electorate is, it is polarized. The two sides don't talk anymore, I don't think the people in Washington ( and perhaps us) know how to spell compromise. There's also issues that only the aware take into account...appointments to the bench , especially the SCOTUS. Where's jimmy the Greek when ya need him?

[New Ager]

Originally posted by The Fool
Vote early, vote often.....

Many dead people vote in Australian elections. Its a way of remaining active and politically interested in the post death period of your life.

Uh-oh, I smell a new line that our favorite medium could try...

"This is John Edward reaching out to the candidates in Australia. Do you have supporters that have crossed over? Is the next election going to be close for you? Well, don't let it be. Thru me, I will contact those dearly departed voters and bring you another term.

Remember, a death ends a life, but it doesn't have to end a voting record. So, contact me, John Edward and I will give you the peace of mind that another term will bring.

I'm getting a "V". Looks like those voters are trying to come through already. So, don't delay. Some people are dying to vote for you."

:D

[New Ager]

(Quote by ?)

The culprit is the conservatives' beloved free-market capitalism, a system that, at it's most unrestrained, has little use for small town merchants or the agricultural system that supported the small towns in the first place. Deregulated capitalism is what has allowed Wal-Marts to crush local businesses across the Midwest...

(New Ager)

Yeah, it always bugs me too when Wal-Mart offers so many quality products at low prices. We need higher prices and less choices.

[New Ager]

Originally posted by American
Write-in "JERK" in 2004.

Bill Clinton is not allowed to run.

[New Ager]

(Shemp)

If Bush is reelected, I can't wait to see what he'll do without the concern for having to run again.

(New Ager)

Cut taxes, bring the economy back, put a strangle hold on terrorism, and be the moral leader of our country.

(Shemp)

Me, I'll be looking for job and housing possibilities in Canada or Australia.

(New Ager)

With socialism running rampant in the country to the North, I'm sure there will many leaving and you can find opportunities in the People's Republic Of Canada.

[New Ager]

(Adam)

More than twice as many people here think Kerry will beat Bush???

I hope it's true, but it seems doubtful to me. I voted for Bush winning by about 55-60%.

(New Ager)

Twice as many don't think Kerry will win, it's just wishful thinking. I bet if each person had to put their house up on the outcome, you would see a more realistic vote total.

(Adam)

Is it really that good down there? I thought Bush was still very popular....

(New Ager)

Oh, he is. Some can't face it though.

[Regnad Kcin]

Originally posted by New Ager
Bill Clinton is not allowed to run. You should be thankful. He would trounce GWB without even breaking a sweat.

[New Ager]

Nope, Bush would beat him.

Clinton could barely beat Dole.

Ahhh, the adulation for slickmeister still amazes me. And some of you call yourself skeptics.

Where Clinton is concerned, it seems that skepticism takes a back seat to fanaticism.

[Regnad Kcin]

Originally posted by New Ager
Clinton could barely beat Dole.Popular Vote: Clinton -- 49.24% Dole -- 40.71%Electoral Vote (270 needed to win): Clinton -- 379 Dole -- 159Source: State Elections Offices (http://www.fec.gov/96fed/geresult.htm), per the Federal Election Commission.Where Clinton is concerned, it seems that skepticism takes a back seat to fanaticism. Funny you should say that.