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svero
9th March 2003, 11:03 AM
So what do you all think of this 2nd resolution? Will it pass? If it doesn't pass what will happen? If the US and UK attack without it how will the US, Tony B, and the UN be affected? And also, I'm particularly interested in what US citizens think if Bush decides to go to war after the resolution doesn't pass. How do you feel about that?

My feeling is that there doesn't seem, at least on the surface (you never know with these politicos), to be enough support for the vote to pass, and that even if it did there would likely be a veto from the French or Russians. I suspect that March 17th is a deadline of sorts whether or not the bill passes.

I'm not sure what will happen to Blair, but it sure seems like many will resign from the labor party if he follows through with an attack without UN backing. I suspect he has little future in politics, but then it partly depends on the aftermath of a war. If it were quick and there was a perception afterwords that Iraq was better off he may have a chance to bounce back. On the other hand if it doesn't go well.. he'd practically be lynched. I recommend he move to washington and live out his remaining years in an undisclosed location ;-)

As for the UN well... Certainly it would undermine the relevance of the UN if an attack went through anyway. One would have to wonder why the US would go back to the UN after ignoring a failed SC vote, since they more or less just do what they want anyway. Any chance anyone believes that a no vote will make the US reconsider it's plans? Any chance for a similar resolution with an extended deadline? I think a lot here depends on whether you believe that WMD is really at the crux of this matter. If it isn't I'd say there's little chance it matters what the outcome of the vote is although the US may still want to wait a bit if they feel they can garner the support they need to make this a UN backed/sanctioned war.

aerocontrols
9th March 2003, 11:13 AM
Originally posted by svero
So what do you all think of this 2nd resolution? Will it pass?

Hard to say. I think the US may get the 9 votes they need, but that France or Russia (or France and Russia) may veto.

Originally posted by svero
If it doesn't pass what will happen?

The war goes ahead anyway.

Originally posted by svero
If the US and UK attack without it how will the US, Tony B, and the UN be affected?

Not much will happen to the US.

If the war goes as well as I believe it will, Tony B will be completely vindicated and strengthened politically.

The UN will not come out of this looking good at all.

Originally posted by svero
And also, I'm particularly interested in what US citizens think if Bush decides to go to war after the resolution doesn't pass. How do you feel about that?

Suits me just fine.

Originally posted by svero
Any chance for a similar resolution with an extended deadline?

Nope. No meaningful extended deadline can be made, since Saddam knows that if he survives until May, it will be too late for military action. By next fall support for military action will have dried up enough that he'll never have to cooperate again.

MattJ

svero
9th March 2003, 11:33 AM
Originally posted by aerocontrols

Suits me just fine.


By that do you mean that it doesn't matter what the dissenters think and how the US is perceived? given the US's relative world strength, or that you feel the war will go so well that Bush will be vindicated and public opinion, in time, will generally look favorably on the decision?

aerocontrols
9th March 2003, 11:43 AM
Originally posted by svero
By that do you mean that it doesn't matter what the dissenters think and how the US is perceived?

I support removal of Saddam Hussein, by military force if necessary, and I have since 1998. I didn't change my mind because the Republican congress criticized Clinton for bombing Iraq during his impeachment trial. I don't change my mind because the French or the Chinese governments are against it. It would be nice if they weren't, but at this point I'm convinced that there never was a 'UN path' to serious disarmament, nor regime change in Iraq.

Originally posted by svero
given the US's relative world strength, or that you feel the war will go so well that Bush will be vindicated and public opinion, in time, will generally look favorably on the decision?

I believe that Bush and Blair will be vindicated.

MattJ