Prediction - August 4th 2004

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by BPSCG
Luci, I asked you this before, so please answer, before August 4.

I live near the Pentagon and work in downtown Washington DC.

Are my wife and I in danger?

I'll make it easy for you; pick one:

A) Yes
B) No
C) Don't know.

If I don't see an answer by 8:00 am U.S. eastern time on August 3, I'll assume the answer is C and that your prediction is worthless.

There's a fourth possibility:

D) The answer is A, but he keeps silent, because he doesn't want to stop it from happening.

With premonition of this kind comes the responsibility of warning people. Keeping silent about this is equivalent to accepting responsibility for it happening.

If Lucianarchy later claims that he got a hit, he similarly accepts the responsibility of it happening. If anyone gets killed, and Lucianarchy claims that he predicted it, he also says that he did nothing to prevent people from dying.

Lucianarchy claiming to have psychic powers means he accepts being an accomplice to murder.

Personally, I don't believe for a second that Lucianarchy has psychic powers. He's all talk, and no evidence.

[Chad Noles]

Originally posted by CF Larsen:
With premonition of this kind comes the responsibility of warning people. Keeping silent about this is equivalent to accepting responsibility for it happening.

So you say.Can you show us what the law says about this?


If Lucianarchy later claims that he got a hit, he similarly accepts the responsibility of it happening.

Can you prove that the "hit" was preventable?


If anyone gets killed, and Lucianarchy claims that he predicted it, he also says that he did nothing to prevent people from dying.

Lucianarchy claiming to have psychic powers means he accepts being an accomplice to murder.



That's quite a statement even from you.Nice attempt to demonize those you disagree with.By that standard,if a psychic tells you of an event where people will die, and you don't prevent it,then you are just as guilty, too.Are we to believe that all skeptics, who have shrugged off a prediction, as some mere coincidence, of an actual fatal disaster are accomplices to murder?I would find that quite ironic,and ridiculous.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Chad Noles
So you say.Can you show us what the law says about this?

You are held accountable if you are privvy to a crime, and don't do anything to stop it.

criminal negligence
: a gross deviation from the standard of care expected of a reasonable person that is manifest in a failure to protect others from a risk (as of death) deriving from one's conduct and that renders one criminally liable called also culpable negligence

gross negligence
: negligence that is marked by conduct that presents an unreasonably high degree of risk to others and by a failure to exercise even the slightest care in protecting them from it and that is sometimes associated with conscious and willful indifference to their rights
Source (http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=negligence)

Originally posted by Chad Noles
Can you prove that the "hit" was preventable?

If it is an attack, and people knew about it, they could do something about it. Remember, this prediction is from May 12th, 2004. Lucianarchy has had plenty of time to warn the authorities.

Originally posted by Chad Noles
That's quite a statement even from you.Nice attempt to demonize those you disagree with.By that standard,if a psychic tells you of an event where people will die, and you don't prevent it,then you are just as guilty, too.Are we to believe that all skeptics, who have shrugged off a prediction, as some mere coincidence, of an actual fatal disaster are accomplices to murder?I would find that quite ironic,and ridiculous.

I have no rational reason to believe that a psychic can predict an event where people will die. Therefore, I have no rational reason to take action. I cannot be blamed for not succumbing to superstitious beliefs, none of which have been found to be backed by real phenomena.

What you seem to be arguing is that we have to act on every prediction from every psychic in the world. That is a truly ridiculous stance.

[Rolfe]

Considering the long list of mass disasters that have occurred in the past three months or so, anything happening on 4th August is going to have to be pretty apocalyptic to register above that extremely high background noise.

I reckon it's a shot in the dark, perhaps because that date is the 90th anniversary of the outbreak of the First World War and there may be some commemoration events going on that might get targeted.

Rolfe.

[heath]

Wow. 7 pages.

I've got to say I have some growing admiration for Luci. It is a spectacularly sucessful troll.

[Operaider]

Luci, could you please clarify answer some of the questions below, to the best of your ability, before Aug 4th. This will not only make easier to tell if your prediction was real, but also make it harder for skeptics to dismiss it as only fitting a vague description of something that happens all the time.
[list=1] Could you please give me a description of a day in which your prediction for August 4th did not come true? By this I mean, if your prediction were to not come true, for whatever reason, how could we know?

Some would say that a "western target" could describe an area targeted by the west. Could you please verify that this is not what you mean by "western target", so we can eliminate that as a possibility.

Will it be August 4th in that area of the world at the time of attack? Can you please verify that you do not mean that it will just be August 4th somewhere in the world at the time of attack? Some have already suggested this as a possible loophole.

You have said that the event will be self-evident. By this do you mean that once it happens we will have no way of doubting that it is the event you predicted? If people do not think it fits with what you predicted, will it then not be considered "self evident", and hence an incorrect prophecy?

You said it would be an "attack". Could you please give your definition of attack? Can we eliminate natural disasters? Can we safely assume that it will be an intentional attack, and not an accident caused by man? Example: would you consider a disaster similar to the spill caused by the Exxon Valdez an attack?

You said that there will be “over 100 casualties (death or serious injury)�. Can we safely assume that none of the “serious injuries� you describe will be emotional injury, and that all of the injured will have physical injury? Can we assume the injuries predicted will be serious enough that those people will be listed among the injured after the attack? Many minor injuries will not make the news, I assume none of these will be counted as the seriously injured you predicted. [/LIST=1]
Once again, I'm trying to ask you as nicely as I know how. I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt. Though, I must admit that I agree with the others, that your description is very loose and open to a wide range of interpretation. Hopefully you answering some of these questions will fix that problem.

[Chad Noles]

Originally posted by CFLarsen:
You are held accountable if you are privvy to a crime,

Who said anything about a crime?We were talking about a prediction. Are we to assume that you consider all predictions crimes.

originally posted by CFLarsen:
If it is an attack, and people knew about it, they could do something about it.

I asked you to prove your position,if you are so certain.
This is not proof.You are welcome to your opinion.

Originally posted by CFLarsen:
Remember, this prediction is from May 12th, 2004. Lucianarchy has had plenty of time to warn the authorities.

And so have you.By your standards, you are now just as responsible.

Originally posted by CFLarsen:I have no rational reason to believe that a psychic can predict an event where people will die. Therefore, I have no rational reason to take action.

Then you have no rational standing to accuse anyone of being an accomplice to murder even if they admit they "knew" and did nothing.

Originally posted by CFLarsen:
What you seem to be arguing is that we have to act on every prediction from every psychic in the world. That is a truly ridiculous stance.

No,you are wrong.I'm not saying that we have to act on every prediction from every psychic in the world.I'm not even sure how you would derive that from what I wrote.What I'm saying is that I find your accusation that anyone who makes a prediction that come true,or has knowledge of the same,is equalivent to a murderer.A truly ridiculous stance,indeeed.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Chad Noles
Who said anything about a crime?We were talking about a prediction. Are we to assume that you consider all predictions crimes.

Not at all. We were talking about the prediction made by Lucianarchy. I don't think an "attack" cannot be considered a crime.

Originally posted by Chad Noles
I asked you to prove your position,if you are so certain. This is not proof.You are welcome to your opinion.

I refer you to the references I posted. Those were not my opinions. If you don't accept evidence, then I cannot do anything about that.

Originally posted by Chad Noles
And so have you.By your standards, you are now just as responsible.

Not at all. I don't believe that Lucianarchy is capable of predicting events.

Originally posted by Chad Noles
Then you have no rational standing to accuse anyone of being an accomplice to murder even if they admit they "knew" and did nothing.

I wasn't doing that. I have pointed out that if Lucianarchy takes credit for having knowledge about an event, where people got killed, and he did nothing to prevent it, then he also accepts being responsible for it.

Originally posted by Chad Noles
No,you are wrong.I'm not saying that we have to act on every prediction from every psychic in the world.I'm not even sure how you would derive that from what I wrote.What I'm saying is that I find your accusation that anyone who makes a prediction that come true,or has knowledge of the same,is equalivent to a murderer.A truly ridiculous stance,indeeed.

But I am not doing that. I have explained that I cannot be blamed for not succumbing to superstitious beliefs, none of which have been found to be backed by real phenomena.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Operaider

Once again, I'm trying to ask you as nicely as I know how. I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt. Though, I must admit that I agree with the others, that your description is very loose and open to a wide range of interpretation. Hopefully you answering some of these questions will fix that problem.

Hopefully, you will do me the courtesy of reading what I have already wroter about this subject before asking such questions. Because, I have clearly stated, I have told you all I know. Only you can judge the significance for yourself. Claus Larsen, for instance, on the Fallujah police station attack, said it was not a particularly nasty attack and refused to accept that the US/Coalition installed puppet police station in Fallujah was not a 'Western target' . Now, that's up to him. That's his belief.
Only you can judge for yourself. Self evident.

It's unlikely to happen, statistically, those sort of attacks of 100+ deaths or serious injuries against western targets are, thankfully, not likely to happen. And I sincerely hope it doesn't. I was asked to record these perceptions here by other skeptics in this forum. That's it. No more. No less.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
Because, I have clearly stated, I have told you all I know.

Then, you have predicted nothing.

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
Only you can judge the significance for yourself.

No, that is not what "self-evident" means. You are merely trying to create an "out" for yourself: If it is "self-evident" for you, then your prediction will come true, no matter what happens.

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
Claus Larsen, for instance, on the Fallujah police station attack, said it was not a particularly nasty attack

It wasn't, compared to what else went on (and goes on!) in Iraq.

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
and refused to accept that the US/Coalition installed puppet police station in Fallujah was not a 'Western target' .

Please! That is a ridiculous claim: If the Iraqui police can be considered a "Western" attack, then there are hardly any attacks that cannot be considered such.

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
Only you can judge for yourself. Self evident.

(groan.....)

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
It's unlikely to happen, statistically, those sort of attacks of 100+ deaths or serious injuries against western targets are, thankfully, not likely to happen. And I sincerely hope it doesn't. I was asked to record these perceptions here by other skeptics in this forum. That's it. No more. No less.

Let's see what happens. Let's see what you claim afterwards.

[TheBoyPaj]

Sorry Claus, but you have lost me on the whole "negligence" angle.

Imagine Luci really did have a vision of an attack, and he really did get the information "100+ casualties" and "Western target". What do you suggest he should do to prevent this disaster? What would "the authorities" (whoever they might be, since the country is not known) do about it?

You know yourself how vague it is. That's what makes it utterly useless, even if it's true.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by TheBoyPaj
Sorry Claus, but you have lost me on the whole "negligence" angle.

Imagine Luci really did have a vision of an attack, and he really did get the information "100+ casualties" and "Western target". What do you suggest he should do to prevent this disaster? What would "the authorities" (whoever they might be, since the country is not known) do about it?

I don't know, but that is not Lucianarchy's problem. His problem is that if he really believes that he has a premonition about something that will kill people - and we are not talking about a few deaths here - then he has to contact the authorities, at least where he lives right now.

Of course, someone reporting a carnage like this would either be dismissed as a kook, or be hauled in for interrogation. If it later turned out that the prediction came true, he would most certainly be hauled in for a very thorough interrogation. But that's no excuse for not reporting it.

Originally posted by TheBoyPaj
You know yourself how vague it is. That's what makes it utterly useless, even if it's true.

Yes, I know. But if Lucianarchy later claims that he predicted such a bloodbath, then he also knew about it beforehand. Why should it matter how he knew about it? Heck, psychics can solve crimes, right?

[Rolfe]

I'm getting flashes that all these high-level security alerts are a godsend for Luci, of course something just awful was going to happen, but the vigilance of the authorities thankfully prevented it.

Rolfe.

[reprise]

My prediction is that on 4 August, 2004 +/- 24 hours Luci will finally implode from frustration, thus initiating the End Times.

[Operaider]

Luci, I have read all of the previous posts about this subject.

I realize that you have no new information on the subject. I am merly asking for you to define for us what you have already predicted. You used the term "Western Target". I'm not asking you what "western target"; I'm asking you how you define western target. You used the word "attack". I'm not asking what kind of attack, I'm asking what you would define as an attack. Would a train derailing do to negligence be considered an attack? Would natural disasters be considered an attack by God? I wouldn't think so, but it's not my prediction. I'm asking if you think so.

All these questions are asking for your definition of something you've already predicted. I'm not asking for any new predictions.
I only want you to clarify what you mean in your original prediction.

[Ed]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
Claus Larsen, for instance, on the Fallujah police station attack, said it was not a particularly nasty attack and refused to accept that the US/Coalition installed puppet police station in Fallujah .


So predictions have a left of center spin? Interesting.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Operaider
Would a train derailing do to negligence be considered an attack? Would natural disasters be considered an attack by God?



No and no.

[Operaider]

:DThank you Luci:biggrin:

[Zamzara]

I've seen this kind of thing on the web before, with missing children usually. The psychics always predict doom and gloom, never a happy outcome.

The reason: If the missing child indeed turns out to have been murdered, the psychic was right and she has scored a hit. Win for the psychic.

If the child turns up safe and well, the psychic says she was praying for this outcome and no-one could be happier that she is wrong: "I'm just so glad it's all over" etc. The psychic fawns over the child's 'miraculous' safety, and the skeptic is left with nowhere to go because he can't oppose the psychic without giving the appearance to observers that he is unhappy that the child is safe.

[CFLarsen]

Countdown begun: Aug. 4th

The 4th of August has begun.

Let's recap. Lucianarchy has made the following prediction:

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).

...

The 'awful' aspect of the perception seemed to project over 100 casualties (death or serious injury). I really hope I am wrong. But the perception was strong.

...

I perceive a Western target as one controlled / operated / symbolic of the Western forces of power - armed / industrial / social.

It has to be from terrorists:

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
It would only be significant if the allegations were proven and the attack was from terrorists

It has to be an "attack". It cannot be a natural disaster or accident:

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I have said the perception was of an attack, not a accident or anything. There was definately malicious intent involved.

As to whether it is "self-evident", Lucianarchy has created a nice "out" for himself, though:

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
The significance needs to be self-evident.

...

There will be no judging, it will be self-evident, either way.

Lucianarchy has also made it clear that it means "self-evident, if anyone considers it self-evident". That means: If he thinks it is, then it is.

Where can we expect this?

Albania, Andorra, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, FYR Macedonia, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, San Marino, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Vatican City, USA. There are some countries where only part is considered "European", but let's be generous and include everything. Let's also throw in Canada for good measures.
Source: Wikipedia

So, for the next 24 hours, let's watch the news....

[Dogwood]

This may have already been covered, but what side of the International Date Line are we talking about? It's still Aug. 3rd where I am.

(Better make it the next 48 hours).

[BPSCG]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Where can we expect this?

Albania, Andorra, Armenia, Austria, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Cyprus, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, FYR Macedonia, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russia, San Marino, Serbia and Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, Vatican City, USA. There are some countries where only part is considered "European", but let's be generous and include everything. Let's also throw in Canada for good measures.
[/B]What, Canada but not Mexico...?

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by mark tidwell
This may have already been covered, but what side of the International Date Line are we talking about? It's still Aug. 3rd where I am.

(Better make it the next 48 hours).

Fine with me. As long as it is August 4th anywhere on this planet.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by BPSCG
What, Canada but not Mexico...?

Nope.

[JPK]

I realise that at this point it's Aug 4th somewhere. Will this attack be a ingle event or the accumulated death/injuries throughout Aug 4th?

For example does this count if added to other things that might happen throughout the day?

http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/08/03/iraq.main/index.html
Suicide car bomb kills 4 at Iraqi checkpoint Tuesday, August 3, 2004 Posted: 9:58 AM EDT (1358 GMT)
BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Four Iraqi National Guardsman were killed and six wounded Tuesday when a suicide car bomb rocked a checkpoint near the eastern city of Baquba, police said.The suicide bomber was driving a 1979 Corona, and an Iraqi man believed to be involved in the attack was arrested, police said. Paperwork in the car indicated that the owner was Sudanese
The bomber was seen following vehicles of U.S.-led multinational forces, and the car bomb was detonated as they passed the checkpoint in the city north of Baghdad.

The morbid body count would now stand at:
dead / wounded
4 / 6

we might be 1/10th of the way if these are to be included.

JPK

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by JPK
Will this attack be a ingle event or the accumulated death/injuries throughout Aug 4th?

No. It has to be one attack:

An attack on a Western target

It has to be 100+ casualties:

over 100 casualties (death or serious injury).

It has to be by terrorists:

It would only be significant if the allegations were proven and the attack was from terrorists

[TheBoyPaj]

I would expect it to be August 4th at the place of the attack, rather than anywhere in the globe. Also, since Alaska is enjoying daylight saving time, the last few hours of August 4th will be limited to a few islands.

http://www.worldtimezone.com/index24.html

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by TheBoyPaj
I would expect it to be August 4th at the place of the attack, rather than anywhere in the globe. Also, since Alaska is enjoying daylight saving time, the last few hours of August 4th will be limited to a few islands.

It would absolutely be the most reasonable. When did the 9-11 attacks happen in the Pacific? On 10-11??

[BPSCG]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by BPSCG
What, Canada but not Mexico...?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Nope.
Why not? Canada is not part of the U.S. (guy on an Air Canada flight once felt it necessary to impart this little-known fact to me), and neither is Mexico.

If Canada is considered western by dint of being in the western hemisphere, so is Mexico, last time I checked.

If Canada is considered western because its ancestry is tied to a European country, so is Mexico.

C'mon - give Luci the benefit of one extra country.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by BPSCG
Why not? Canada is not part of the U.S. (guy on an Air Canada flight once felt it necessary to impart this little-known fact to me), and neither is Mexico.

If Canada is considered western by dint of being in the western hemisphere, so is Mexico, last time I checked.

If Canada is considered western because its ancestry is tied to a European country, so is Mexico.

C'mon - give Luci the benefit of one extra country.

Fine. Whatever. Mexico is in.

[Rolfe]

I suppose the Forum being down was IT?? :D

Rolfe.

[Cleopatra]

I think that Luci got it right. A water pipe broke in the Olympic Village today and the chef of mission of Liberia didn't have a morning shower.

[Rob Lister]

Originally posted by Rolfe
I suppose the Forum being down was IT?? :D

Rolfe.

Otherwise, its a very slow news day. No...wait...FOX is discussing what Kerry didn't eat at Wendy's. No...wait...CNN too! This is big news!

Headlines from Foxnews.com

Mary Kay Letourneau Freed
Ex-teacher paroled after prison stint for sex with student, 12Wash. Judge OKs Gay Marriage
But nothing happens until state Supreme Court looks at case
• Mo. Bans Gay Marriage Kobe Accuser May Drop Case
Woman fears her sex-life details could torpedo NBA star's trialCrude Prices Take a Dip
Oil supplies up, troubled Yukos says it can keep exports flowingSix Hostages Freed in Iraq
Fallujah chief says 4 Jordanians let go in raid; militants release Turks
• Lynddie 'Snuck' Into PrisonU.S. Probing Terror Plot
Agents don't know whether plan defunct or successfully interrupted
• Pakistan: Suspects Had Plans
• Qaeda Group Eyeing LeadersMark Hacking Had Alias
Husband of missing woman also went by 'Jonathan Long'
• Peterson Trolled Boat AdsHenri Cartier-Bresson Dies
Legendary photographer captured Gandhi, Matisse, WWII on filmStaten Island Ferry Pilot Guilty
Helmsman admits lying, may also take 11 manslaughter countsBear Scares Boy to Death
Bostonian, 13, collapses, dies after encounter with N.H. beast

The last one is clearly what luci was referring to.

[Rolfe]

Originally posted by Rob Lister
Otherwise, its a very slow news day. No...wait...FOX is discussing what Kerry didn't eat at Wendy's. No...wait...CNN too! This is big news!Still got maybe 16 hours to go before it isn't Wednesday anywhere. (Depending on whether I've got the time zones right or not, probably not.) And then how long would it take for the news to get through from some Pacific atoll.... Don't give up on it yet!

Rolfe.

[CFLarsen]

Still counting...


Still no word from Lucianarchy...

[BPSCG]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Fine. Whatever. Mexico is in. Yay!. I mean Ole! :D

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by BPSCG
Yay!. I mean Ole! :D

Doesn't help much, does it?

[reprise]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Still counting...


Still no word from Lucianarchy...

That's because he seems to have abandoned you as Enemy No 1 and is now pursuing Xouper over at SC for his "evildoings".

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by reprise
That's because he seems to have abandoned you as Enemy No 1 and is now pursuing Xouper over at SC for his "evildoings".

Not my problem. Not anybody's problem but his own.

[Chupacabras]

But wait!

Remember the gregorian calendar is off by several years regarding the birth of Jeebuz. That gives quite some margin to this (and any) prediction.

Lest we jump to conclusions. :rolleyes:

[Rob Lister]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Not my problem. Not anybody's problem but his own.

Ah, but it is your problem because of your pledge.

[Nyarlathotep]

Well, it's August 4 and not only has a 'major attack on a western target' failed to materialize, but it's a pretty slow newsday overall. Though I do notice that there is no attempt (so far) to backpedal and explain some lesser event as the attack in question, and I will give you credit for that. Though I have to wonder if you ahdn't been pressed for more details and thus hadn't given such details as 90+ causualties and a 'western target' if you wouldn't be doing exactly that. I am sure that some tragedy is occuring somewhere on the globe at any given time, after all.

[troy jones]

Originally posted by Nyarlathotep
Well, it's August 4 and not only has a 'major attack on a western target' failed to materialize, but it's a pretty slow newsday overall. Though I do notice that there is no attempt (so far) to backpedal and explain some lesser event as the attack in question, and I will give you credit for that. Though I have to wonder if you ahdn't been pressed for more details and thus hadn't given such details as 90+ causualties and a 'western target' if you wouldn't be doing exactly that. I am sure that some tragedy is occuring somewhere on the globe at any given time, after all.
I'm guessing he'll take the bear attack as a hit. It's only 99 casualties short after all.

Although anything could happen between now and midnight.

[thaiboxerken]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).

Oh, let's all help Lucianarchy out here. Let's find as many "attacks" on a "Western target" that we can.

[thaiboxerken]

Here, I'll place one attack on here.

Today, Missouri voters attacked freedom.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,127979,00.html

"Mo. Voters Approve Ban on Gay Marriage"

[thaiboxerken]

Here is another "major" attack.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,127981,00.html

BAGHDAD, Iraq — Fierce gunbattles broke out Wednesday between Iraqi police and dozens of masked militants roaming the northern city of Mosul (search), killing 12 Iraqis and wounding 26 others, officials said.

[thaiboxerken]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/nottinghamshire/3533212.stm

Part of a city park was sealed off after a serious sexual assault on a 15-year-old girl.

Here is another attack on a western target.

[thaiboxerken]

Yet, another "western" target.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/3534042.stm

A doorman at a Beijing kindergarten has stabbed 15 children, killing one of them, according to Chinese state media.

[Piscivore]

Without reading the entirety of this thread, is it anywhere specified the "casualties" must be human?
'Dead zone' spreads across Gulf of Mexico (http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/science/08/04/environment.deadzone.reut/index.html)

It's definitely "Western", though.

[Psiload]

IT happened!

http://www.cnn.com/2004/SHOWBIZ/Movies/08/04/slater.reut/index.html

Chicken pox scotches Slater debut

Christian Slater (A westerner) was attacked by chicken pox!

Luci has the gift! :eek:

[jnelso99]

Originally posted by The Mighty Thor
As the date grows nearer it occurs to me that if, Ed forbid, something akin to 9/11 should happen on the predicted date, our Lunianarchy will no doubt be getting a visit from some real MIB who tend not to have a sense of psirony, and who will be asking some very serious questions of him and looking into his anarchy-prone personal lifestyle very closely. :(

Got here late. As an aside, when I was in college (University of Illinois), the university newspaper ran a comic strip called "Go Die", and one of the main characters said something to the effect of "Oh yeah? Well, I'm going to go blow up the World Trade Center!". Either that day or the next was the 1993 attack on the WTC. Yes, the cartoonist did get a visit from the FBI or CIA (whichever one deals with these things), and for the rest of that week that character had a "Karnak" hat on and was making silly predictions.

[Zep]

Well, it's Thursday here, and no attacks. Well...perhaps an attack of the heebie-jeebies waiting for Luci's predictions to come true...

[Lisa Simpson]

Originally posted by Zep
Well, it's Thursday here, and no attacks. Well...perhaps an attack of the heebie-jeebies waiting for Luci's predictions to come true...

There is still 6.5 hours left of Aug. 4th here in California. There will be a mass insecticide (http://abclocal.go.com/kabc/news/080404_nw_west_Nile_spraying.html) tonight, but I don't think that counts.

[Jeff Corey]

It's still Wednesday here and nothing big to get Bush to delay the election yet. It depends where you are and I was wondering - doesn't august 4 cover about 24 hours, depending on time zone?

[Kopji]

Now now, the 4th is not over yet.

In the meantime, suppose that we take the psychic warning seriously. Being a Prophet of Doom is such a risk free endeavor, it is no wonder that so many people profess the truth of it. If nothing happens, there will always be an 'out'. The creativity of prophets to spin interpretations is endless.

But back to the matter of risk.

Let's say there is a prediction that "X will happen at place Y"

Potential Outcomes: Prophet Win/Lose
A X happens at Y ---------------------------------Win
B X does not happen ----------------------------Lose (see note below)
C X happens at (NOT Y) -------------------------Partial Win
D X might have happened at Y ----------------Win
E X might not have happened -----------------Win
F X might have happened at (NOT Y) ---------Win


Humm, so the odds are with the ability of a prophet to appear successful: Prediction is a pretty low risk activity. Might even be a NO risk activity because I have seen prophets of doom outright lose, and then deny the prediction was ever made. Or there is always the option of changing the prediction AFTER the event occurs. This last method is like shooting an arrow at a wall, and then drawing a bullseye around wherever it hit.

Adding to the success is the fact that most people do not take these predictions seriously, and so no accountability is required of the prophet:

We to not send prophets of doom a bill for reallocation of emergency equipment if the prediction fails to occur.

We do not require malpractice insurance in case a mistake is made and people are moved into danger instead of away from it.

We do not imprison prophets for causing panic or chaos resulting in injury of people seeking a place of safety.


Who owns the consequences of prophetic utterances?
Never the prophet of doom.









Fortunately I burned some incense and waved some sticks in the air, did a little dance and a holy song, asking (insert Deity of choice here) to intervene on our behalf. If we are safe by this time tomorrow it is only by Divine protection, if not, it was (insert Deity of choice here) 's will. Part of life's wonderful mystery, etc.

[Operaider]

Anyone want to take beats on what his "out" is going to be?

My money is on
"I only said August 4th, I never said 2004"

Any other predictions ?

[Kopji]

The dark side of this is that there is an entire population out there wishing for disaster to strike so their cherished beliefs can persist unchallenged.

My bet is that this thread would just be ignored till it drifts to the bottom. Pretending 'wrong' things never happened is a terrific success, look how it works for Sylvia.

[Loki]

luci appears to have been right! (http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/footy/common/story_page/0,8033,10346577%255E20322,00.html)

WESTERN Bulldogs president David Smorgon conceded yesterday the club "made a mistake" in appointing Peter Rohde as coach.

Sacked yesterday after winning just eight of 41 games, Rohde has agreed to coach the rest of the season and will be paid out the final year of his contract, believed to be less than $200,000.
I can't tell you how much emotional injury this sacking has caused to many people here...truly, a tragedy.

[Operaider]

Am I right in assuming that everything East of the Atlantic is now Aug 5th? This is REALY going to cut down on Luci's odds.

This sorta reminds me of waiting for the ball to drop, and the fear surounding Y2K
[list=a] People are waiting for a disaster to happen, even though we all know its a bunch of hype
It's much more boring than I thought it would be
I'm drunk and dancing to Prince songs
[/list=a] I'm going to sleep, I hope were all still around when I wake up.

[Jeff Corey]

Count down.
The International Date Line at about the 180 meridian, will close out August 4 in about 5.5 hours. Unless you're on PST (Polynesian Savings Time).
After that, it will be August 5. No more, no less.
I predict when Luciintheskywithzircons fails to do anything, it will claim that, in fact, that it did.
Do "Ladybrook" ring a bell?

[BPSCG]

With a little over three hours to go, here's the news from the Alexandria, Virginia daily enews:

**************************************************
ALEXANDRIA POLICE INCIDENTS

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 4, 2004

BURGLARY:

3300 blk. of King St. 07-30/ 7:00 p.m. - 08-02/ 8:00 a.m. Someone entered the school's trailer by prying open the door. Once inside, the suspect vandalized the interior by painting graffiti on the walls and desks.

**************************************************

But we've got Zacarias Mousaui (or however you spell his name), the 20th September 11 hijacker, locked up here.* Maybe his al Queda buds are planning a bust-out.

*Last I heard, anyway. Could be in Guantanamo now, for all I know...

[BPSCG]

BTW, is it just me, or are the times in the messages on this forum all messed up...?

[Aussie Thinker]

Luci..

Greatest Psi Artist EVER

In late breaking news…

The greatest attack ever planned by terrorists against Western targets was narrowly averted Today due to the intervention of Lucianarchy.

A few months ago Luci proclaimed his/her prediction on the JREF forums.

Knowing this would generate a HUGE amount of “positive� psi from all the sceptics there desperate for Luci to fail. This MASSIVE amount of energy generated by those HOPING for nothing bad to happen on August 4 2004 averted the attack.

Luci is being recommended for a Congressional Medal of Honour, Victoria Cross and Red Star (???)

I would recommend him/her for certification at the local looney bin!




BTW… Need I ask but does anyone find it amusing that the 4th ended up being a SINGULARLY slow news/attack day ?

[garys_2k]

If he was a "prophet of Doom," he only missed by a single day: http://www.doom3.com/

[Ed]

Originally posted by Aussie Thinker
BTW… Need I ask but does anyone find it amusing that the 4th ended up being a SINGULARLY slow news/attack day ?

It seems like NOTHING happened today. Oh, I won a book on ebay.

[Kopji]

The west coast of the US is still in danger.

6:55PM Arizona Time and all is well.

(We really have our own Microsoft time zone!)

[Lisa Simpson]

Originally posted by Ed
It seems like NOTHING happened today. Oh, I won a book on ebay.

Well, my grandmother died today, but she was 96, so it was not unexpected.

[Operaider]

BTW… Need I ask but does anyone find it amusing that the 4th ended up being a SINGULARLY slow news/attack day ?

Could it be that Luci is a reverse psychic?

Does anyone know where we can find a day-to-day death / injury tally for the wars in Iraq or Afghanistan? I'm interested in how today compares to the average.

[Mercutio]

Originally posted by Lisa Simpson
Well, my grandmother died today, but she was 96, so it was not unexpected. My sincere condolences anyway. I suppose somebody had to die today, but I am still sorry for your loss.

[Lisa Simpson]

Thank you.

[evilgoldtoesock]

Doom 3??

Yes, the final hour is near...John Carmack and his evil hoard of programmers will break open the demon gate, forcing us hapless computer gamers to battle the most horrific foes for countless hours, (not to mention the fact that we all have to buy new computers to run Doom 3.)

Hmm, say, this might mean that I'll have to buy an ALIENware desktop system...placing me at serious risk for abduction.

[The Mighty Thor]

So, to sum up . . .

Lucianarchy -- you got it ALL WRONG dude.

August 4, 2004 might even go down as one of the quietest news days in history -- a keep the DEAD DONKEY day.

Indeed thousands of fish died in the Thames due to the mucky weather.

Thread over.

Thank you.

Nada, zilch, zero, zip, goose egg.:p

[princhester]

It's still only about 5 pm on the 4th on Midway Is. and that's US territory.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Operaider
My money is on
"I only said August 4th, I never said 2004"

I'll take the bet. Then, I'll point to the title of this thread.... ;)

[RabbiSatan]

Mmmm, still no sign from Luci - oh well. Not that his spectacular failure will deter him from believing.

[Kopji]

My money will be on this turning into a moral lesson. How atheists around the globe are intellectually dishonest because there was a sense of expectation that would not be here if there were really no belief. blah blah blah...

Well, no belief here anyway, I'm going to bed.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by RabbiSatan
Mmmm, still no sign from Luci - oh well. Not that his spectacular failure will deter him from believing.

Not to worry. He's busy.

[princhester]

It's still only 11pm or so on the 4th in Alaska, and not even 9pm in Hawaii.

You guys have no faith ;)

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by princhester
It's still only 11pm or so on the 4th in Alaska, and not even 9pm in Hawaii.

You guys have no faith ;)

It's running a bit thin, isn't it? :)

[MRC_Hans]

It is now VERY DEFINITELY August 5th, and yesterday was one of the calmest days of the year to date.

Psirony, anyone?

:crazy:


Hans

[scratchy]

Originally posted by RabbiSatan
Mmmm, still no sign from Luci - oh well. Not that his spectacular failure will deter him from believing.

Maybe he's in the slammer after trying to attack a western target? Just kidding, he's probably wacuuming the internet to find something that could be wiewed as an attack.

Edit: now i know: he's out partying to celebrate that his prediction didnt happen. Quote L-Y: "It's unlikely to happen, statistically, those sort of attacks of 100+ deaths or serious injuries against western targets are, thankfully, not likely to happen. And I sincerely hope it doesn't."

[princhester]

At 11.59 pm on 4 August 2004 there is going to be a massive attack on the some reef fish, a few seabirds and a turtle on Midway Island and you guys are going to have egg on your faces, let me tell you! There's still 3.5 hours to go nearly. C'mon Osama, you can do it! You just need a vewy vewy fast boat.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by scratchy
Maybe he's in the slammer after trying to attack a western target? Just kidding, he's probably wacuuming the internet to find something that could be wiewed as an attack.

Or, it was prevented by those nasty skeptics, with their negative psi. Remember when he blamed me for messing up his prediction of the England-Portugal soccer match? England was "cheated", and it was a conspiracy that went deep. Very deep: The Swedish referee made sure of that (He was supposedly tipped off by me!). Only the ref was Swiss, not Swedish.

How Lucianarchy tried to salvage that one? By claiming that "SWiss" and "SWeden" were similar....

Source (http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&threadid=42229&perpage=40&highlight=soccer&pagenumber=2)

I expect a similarly desperate, pathethic string of excuses for this one, too.

[scratchy]

[i]

I expect a similarly desperate, pathethic string of excuses for this one, too. [/B]

And that will probably be the "it was going to happen, but was prevented"-excuse. But then again, the prediction should then have been: "something's going to happen but will be prevented". Hmmm....

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by scratchy
And that will probably be the "it was going to happen, but was prevented"-excuse. But then again, the prediction should then have been: "something's going to happen but will be prevented". Hmmm....

Lucianarchy did say that it was very strong.

No word yet.

[Zamzara]

I'm going to bet on the "No one is happier about this than me, you should just be glad too" excuse so popular with child abduction psychics.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Zamzara
I'm going to bet on the "No one is happier about this than me, you should just be glad too" excuse so popular with child abduction psychics.

Keep'em coming, I'm sure Lucianarchy can use all the excuses he can get.

[HarryKeogh]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Keep'em coming, I'm sure Lucianarchy can use all the excuses he can get.

how about this excuse..."I have absolutely no psychic powers. Never have. Never will. I just throw dates out there hoping one will hit. Yes, I know it's sad that in one of the dark corners of my mind I'm hoping something terrible will happen so I can impress some strangers on some internet message boards but it will make me feel good for a while knowing I was able to pull off a scam just like the big names in the phony predictions arena (Edward, Brown et al). Yes, I know; either I really think I do have psychic powers which makes me delusional or I have an utter lack of tact by trying to exploit tragedy to satisfy my own low esteem but I just can't help myself"

Lucianarchy, as someone who had friends die on 9/11 and has a close, dear relative fighting (for no good reason) in Iraq please stop using these horrible circumstances to try and pull one over on people. It's classless. It's not cute or clever. Just classless.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by HarryKeogh
how about this excuse..."I have absolutely no psychic powers. Never have. Never will. I just throw dates out there hoping one will hit. Yes, I know it's sad that in one of the dark corners of my mind I'm hoping something terrible will happen so I can impress some strangers on some internet message boards but it will make me feel good for a while knowing I was able to pull off a scam just like the big names in the phony predictions arena (Edward, Brown et al). Yes, I know; either I really think I do have psychic powers which makes me delusional or I have an utter lack of tact by trying to exploit tragedy to satisfy my own low esteem but I just can't help myself"

That would indeed be a miracle!!

Originally posted by HarryKeogh
Lucianarchy, as someone who had friends die on 9/11 and has a close, dear relative fighting (for no good reason) in Iraq please stop using these horrible circumstances to try and pull one over on people. It's classless. It's not cute or clever. Just classless.

Heartless.

[Prester John]

Is there any evidence to suggest that failed predictions have any rationalising effects on psychics?

Will this failed prediction make it into Luci's signature?

Win - don't lose option for Luci.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Prester John
Is there any evidence to suggest that failed predictions have any rationalising effects on psychics?

Will this failed prediction make it into Luci's signature?

Win - don't lose option for Luci.

What I'll be most interested in, would be to see his list of recorded predictions. Every time he gets one, he writes it down. It could be very interesting to see how often he claims a hit, and how he argues that they were hits.

Of course, we will never see this list, as we will never see evidence of his fantastic results at the Koestler Institute....

[MRC_Hans]

No word from one of our most prolifoc posters yet. Are we having bets?

Mine is that he will stay away for a couple of days, then return and try to pretend he has forgotten all about it.

.... Of course he will be reminded :rolleyes:.

Hans

[BPSCG]

Are you guys all nuts? Didn't you see this story? (http://www.wtopnews.com/index.php?nid=25&sid=240929) Almost a million dead.

I, for one, will never doubt Loonyanarchy again. :crazy:

[Flo]

Will you all stop stalking and censoring this poor soul already ! :D

[BPSCG]

My bet for an excuse: "So many of you said I should contact the appropriate authorities that I thought about it, and after getting another flash of insight that revealed to me where the attack was going to take place, I phoned 911. Of course, you won't read about this in the newspapers..."

[Rolfe]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Remember when he blamed me for messing up his prediction of the England-Portugal soccer match? England was "cheated", and it was a conspiracy that went deep. Very deep: The Swedish referee made sure of that (He was supposedly tipped off by me!). Only the ref was Swiss, not Swedish.

How Lucianarchy tried to salvage that one? By claiming that "SWiss" and "SWeden" were similar....

Source (http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&threadid=42229&perpage=40&highlight=soccer&pagenumber=2)I just read that thread. :eek: :eek: :eek:

Please somebody tell me Luci was joking and had his tongue firmly in his cheek:Since the Danes and Swedes are obviously in cahoots in this tournament, it is highly possible that a Dane tipped off the ref about the prediciton, thus messing up the most likely post-quantum probable outcome.followed byYes, but, "Sw" Swedish..... "Sw" Swiss..... the similarities, the similarities.Nobody could possibly mean this seriously!

Rolfe.

PS. I take it it's now very definitely Thursday (or later) everywhere?

[Lucianarchy]

For commentary, see:

http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?postid=1870560060#post1870560060

[Jeff Corey]

Originally posted by BPSCG
Are you guys all nuts? Didn't you see this story? (http://www.wtopnews.com/index.php?nid=25&sid=240929) Almost a million dead.

I, for one, will never doubt Loonyanarchy again. :crazy:
I'm surprized that the headline wasn't "A Million Croakers Croak!", but that definitely qualifies.
And I am starting to seriously consider that the attention whore has been putting us on all along.

[Peter S.]

[i]...How Lucianarchy tried to salvage that one? By claiming that "SWiss" and "SWeden" were similar.... [/B]

As similar as those IP addresses? :D

[scratchy]

Well, my prediction for the excuse-betting was right. Wooo, maybe im a psycic?

[Doubt]

Originally posted by Doubt
Counter prediction for August 4, 2004:

I perceive that something good will occur that day. An postive action or event at a Western "target" (UK, USA, Europe).

Should not take too much to find one or more events that will make my prediction true. I wonder how many bad events we can find for Luci.

Being vague is such a great way to liberate ones self from responsibility and honesty.

Luci was wrong and I was right.

The Dow Jones finished higher on the 4th. That was a good thing happening at a western target.

I am 100 times better at psychic predictions and Luci. What is 100 times nothing equal to again?
:D

[Ersby]

Originally posted by Doubt
Luci was wrong and I was right.

The Dow Jones finished higher on the 4th. That was a good thing happening at a western target.

I am 100 times better at psychic predictions and Luci. What is 100 times nothing equal to again?
:D

I supplied a non-psychic prediction for Lucian that was 100% "accurate" in its description of an earthquake. Lucian called it "vague" without ever deeming to explain why.

As for another good thing that happened on the 4th: the Daleks are back!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/entertainment/tv_and_radio/3535588.stm

[rppa]

thus messing up the most likely post-quantum probable outcome.

"Post-quantum"????

The random use of the word "quantum" probably irritates me more than any other pseudo-scientific gibberish. This usage is new to me, though. What the hell is "post-quantum" supposed to be?

[Nyarlathotep]

I think Luci has done something valuable her, though. Psychics tend to be very good at "predictions after the fact" (for lack of a better term); for example seeing an event and coming up with a rationalization as to how that event fit something vague that they said in the past. However, when they say beforehand "such and such a thing will happen at a particular time" they tend to fall down flat on their faces.

Between the last time that Luci predicted an attack on a western target and later said that the attack on the police station in Fallujah was it, and this one, where he/she gave more specifics thus eliminating a lot of wiggle room (i.e. saying that it would involve 90+ casualties prevented counting a lot of tragic but small scale events as a hit) he/she demonstrated that principle beautifully.

[Sloe_Bohemian]

I just wanted to gloat....

Luci was WRAU-ONG!!! WRONG! WRONG! R-R-R-RAW...AUNG!!! WRONG! MissTook'n FALSCH!!! B-z-z-z-z-z Wrongaroni and Wrongaroo G-O-N-G-G - G - G !!!!! :D Hit the Road, Jack... an' don't come back, nomore no more no MORE, NO More!!!! Luci was WRAU-ONG!!! WRONG! WRONG! R-R-R-RAW...AUNG!!! WRONG! MissTook'n FALSCH!!! B-z-z-z-z-z Wrongaroni and Wrongaroo G-O-N-G-G - G - G !!!!! Hit the Road, Jack... an' don't come back, nomore no more no MORE, NO More!!!! Luci was WRAU-ONG!!! WRONG! WRONG! R-R-R-RAW...AUNG!!! :cool: WRONG! MissTook'n FALSCH!!! B-z-z-z-z-z Wrongaroni and Wrongaroo G-O-N-G-G - G - G !!!!! Hit the Road, Jack... an' don't come back, nomore no more no MORE, NO More!!!! Luci was WRAU-ONG!!! WRONG! WRONG! R-R-R-RAW...AUNG!!! WRONG! MissTook'n FALSCH!!! B-z-z-z-z-z Wrongaroni and Wrongaroo G-O-N-G-G - G - G !!!!! Hit the Road, Jack... an' don't come back, nomore no more no MORE, NO More!!!! Luci was WRAU-ONG!!! WRONG! WRONG! R-R-R-RAW...AUNG!!! WRONG! MissTook'n FALSCH!!! B-z-z-z-z-z Wrongaroni and Wrongaroo G-O-N-G-G - G - G !!!!! Hit the Road, Jack... an' don't come back, nomore no more no MORE, NO More!!!! Luci was WRAU-ONG!!! WRONG! WRONG! R-R-R-RAW...AUNG!!! WRONG! MissTook'n FALSCH!!! B-z-z-z-z-z Wrongaroni and Wrongaroo G-O-N-G-G - G - G !!!!! :D Hit the Road, Jack... an' don't come back, nomore no more no MORE, NO More!!!!



Sometimes you just need to take a moment...
sit back....
and enjoy the superior feeling that comes from rejecting the "woo"

[CFLarsen]

Nyarlathotep,

I agree. We can all learn a valuable lesson here. The case of Lucianarchy is very helpful to skepticism. We see almost every kind of Superstitious behavior from him.