Prediction - August 4th 2004

[Lucianarchy]

I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).

[Lothian]

Haven't you already failed this game ? Cognitive disassociation .

Predict something specific and useful.

Will the roof be on the stadium in time for the Olympics ?
Will Elvis re appear.
Will American stop being a twat.
Will Claudio Raneri be sacked ?
How many seats will Labour lose in the European elections.
Where will missing children be found

[Gaga]

Sorry if I pop in to state the obvious (or if Lucianarchy's post is meant to be ironic) but there's been an attack to a western target every day since a long time. I don't think this trend is gonna change in the next 2 months.
If you mean outside middle east, please try to limit the possibilities to a state/region/city.
thanks
ciao

[Marian]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).

Can you be more specific? As to how awful, what type of attack, magnitude of damage/loss/casualties, etc?

I assume at this time you cannot narrow it down beyond 'western' target and what you've stated, but does that only include the United States, UK, and Europe? Are there any parts of Europe that could be excluded? Does Europe mean EU, or all of 'europe' and would that include 'eastern europe'? (Lots of places there if we're talking all of europe generalized).

Do you know where the attack will come from? What nation, group, nationality, person, organization, numbers, etc?

Basically any additional information you could offer would be great.

[Undodog]

DO NOT FEED THE TROLL

[davidhorman]

I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).

I predict that something awful will occur on August 3rd. Let's see who wins.

David

[UnTrickaBLe]

Prediction - August 4th 2004 will be WRONG.

[Marian]

I predict that Aug. 5th, there will be a sh*tstorm of posts about this. ;)

Unfortunately since it's not a paranormal claim, I think I only get $1 over one million years from someone around here, right? ;)

[Drooper]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).

You're a one trick pony Luci. And it's a poor one at that.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).

Here we go again.

You're an attention whore. A pretty pathetic one, too.

But don't worry. I will be there to meet your lies about this "prediction" with evidence, just as I have been there to meet your other lies.

"Questions for Lucianarchy" (http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&threadid=21701)

[Camillus]

Hang on, I think I'm picking something up.

I can't be as specific as Loony but I'm predicting terrorist activity in the summer around a European target. I can only narrow the dates down to the period 13th - 29th August (and maybe a week or so on either side) but I'm clear on the geography: definitely sensing somewhere in Greece...

[ca3799]

And I predict that on Aug 4, 2004, something good will happen (to somebady, somewhere in the world)!

Plus, I'm a better psychic since my prediction is 'good'.

[Lothian]

Originally posted by ca3799
And I predict that on Aug 4, 2004, something good will happen (to somebady, somewhere in the world)!

Plus, I'm a better psychic since my prediction is 'good'. Ooooohhh lovely, If you will now tell me that my deceased relatives still love me I will give you lots of money, :D

[Nigel]

Two nations will go to war, but only one will win. There. Ain't that pretty specific?

[Oleron]

Actually something bad happened last year on 4th August.

I forgot my wifes birthday.

Carnage, absolute carnage.

[Prester John]

Being pedantic the UK is part of Europe.

Don't you think thats a bit of a broad pediction? Perhaps someone could check and find out in the last 2/3 months how mant days there hasn't been an attack on a Western Target?

[Zamzara]

Prediction: even if nothing occurs on that day, but something happens that week, Lucianarchy will still count it as a 'hit'.

[Azrael 5]

What happened to the terrible thing that was due to happen on 14th Feb,I got up late that day,did I miss it?;)

[EHocking]

Originally posted by Lothian
Ooooohhh lovely, If you will now tell me that my deceased relatives still love me I will give you lots of money, :D

OK.... ahem.....

"Your deceased relatives still love you"

Where's my money?

[Ed]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).

Why is this non-trivial? Does a trivial prediction have any meaning whatsoever? I would judge that the first page of the NYT, over the past year, has contained something "awful" concerning an attack on a western target 75% of the time. Given this, it appears to me that the odds of something occuring against western interests somewhere in the world are pretty good. Particularly if one extends the definition to include things like bombing a hotel in the Phillipines. I doubt that even the Forteans would give much weight to something as thin as this. It is an absurd claim, pure gossamer.

[Lothian]

Originally posted by EHocking


OK.... ahem.....

"Your deceased relatives still love you"

Where's my money? So a spiritualist but not a remote viewer. :p

[to.by]

Any target will be west of something, with the exception of it being situated exactly at one of the poles.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Azrael 5
What happened to the terrible thing that was due to happen on 14th Feb,I got up late that day,did I miss it?;)

In terms of casualties, there was a particularly awful attack on the US police HQ in Falluja.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
In terms of casualties, there was a particularly awful attack on the US police HQ in Falluja.

Liar, liar, liar.

It wasn't the US police HQ. It was the Iraqi police HQ.

Don't for a second think you can get away with carefully rewording the facts, until they fit with your imaginary successes.

It wasn't even "particularly" awful. Two days before your" premonition", two huge bombs went off, killing more than 100 people. One of the targets was an Iraqi Army recruiting post, thereby also - by your own definition - making that a "Western" target. Source (http://csmonitor.com/2004/0212/p01s02-woiq.html)

Liar, liar, liar.

[richardm]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


In terms of casualties, there was a particularly awful attack on the US police HQ in Falluja.

Erm.. Iraqi police station. Not a Western target.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by richardm


Erm.. Iraqi police station. Not a Western target.

In case you weren't aware, it was the US backed HQ, clearly a 'western' target.

[richardm]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


In case you weren't aware, it was the US backed HQ, clearly a 'western' target.

So since Iraq's infrastructure is currently being backed by the US, anything that happens in Iraq is a Western target?

Edited to add: It seems particularly disingenuous since all of the people killed were Iraqis. I note your powers weren't up to picking up the attack on a genuine Western target the following month.

[Hellbound]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


In case you weren't aware, it was the US backed HQ, clearly a 'western' target.

Actually, I was about 5 miles away from this when it happened.

There were no US soldiers stationed at or near the police station.

The US had no liasons with the Iraqi police station.

We didn't visit the Iraqi police station.

We didn't provide direct support to the Iraqi police in the normal course of their duties.

The only time any US personnel visted the Iraqi police HQ was to turn over prisoners that we had captured and determined should be handled by local authorities, rather than US authorities.

The US has no direct authority over the Iraqi police, and they act pretty much autonomously.

Finally, seeing that I was stationed there, it seems odd that no one really, ever, talked much about this incident because, well, it was inconsequential when one looked at it. Both before and after it were attacks that involved more total people, more US personnel, and caused more damage.

If one can only predict the least significant events, what use is prediciton? There was nothing special about that day, or that attack..in fact, it was rather unremarkable given the history of the area before and after. Predicting a hot day in the summer is about as impressive.

[Ersby]

Didn't I already replicate this? I chose a date, described an event and got it 100% correct.

In fact, it's got to the point where Lucian's now trying to replicate my results :D

[Nyarlathotep]

Originally posted by UnTrickaBLe
Prediction - August 4th 2004 will be WRONG.

Actually, it is vague enough that it can't help but be right. Something awful happens every day in the world (even if you narrow it down to just 'the west'). Add to that the fact that there is a war going on (which is likely to stillbe going on, in some fashion on August 4th), and Luci has made a prediction that can't possibly fail. He/She may as well have predicted that there will be bad weather somewhere on the North American continent that day, it would have been just as impressive.

[Ed]

I cannot believe that Luci really, really buys this stuff.

[Lothian]

Originally posted by Ed
I cannot believe that Luci really, really buys this stuff. I thought everyone knew.

Luci is Claus's sock puppet.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Ed
I cannot believe that Luci really, really buys this stuff.

He does. He is a shining example of just how dangerous belief in the paranormal can be.

Originally posted by Lothian
Luci is Claus's sock puppet.

You just lost your place in my evening prayers! :p ;)

[alfaniner]

Does somebody have the link to the previous prediction thread so we don't have to go through all this again?

[Aussie Thinker]

What a disgusting ingenuous creep Lucianarchy is !

To DARE claim the police station was a US target.. what a Joke..

And IF she/he/it’s (don’t you find Luci’s fixation with keeping his/her/its sex a secret a revelation of their childishness).. POWER was ANYTHING why wouldn’t it have alerted of the Spanish attack.. now THAT would have been something !

And this latest prediction. pshaw.. just as pathetic... Lucianarchy truly is a moron

[Gregory]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
He does. He is a shining example of just how dangerous belief in the paranormal can be.

Dangerous how? I mean, Luciniarchy strikes me as a fool, but hardly a dangerous fool.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Gregory
Dangerous how? I mean, Luciniarchy strikes me as a fool, but hardly a dangerous fool.

Fools can attract a following, sometimes the greater fool, the greater following.

He is only a fool to those who know what we do. To those who are not aware of his long history of deceit, he can sound very convincing. Just as any successful charlatan does.

That's what makes him dangerous.

[Batman Jr.]

I predict that next August 4th will be Louis Armstrong's 103rd birthday.

[The Don]

Of course if naff all happens, Lucianarchy will insist that the warning was heeded by the powers that be and as a result the attack was foiled.

[Thomas]

Originally posted by Batman Jr.
I predict that next August 4th will be Louis Armstrong's 103rd birthday.
That prediction is way too vague, you're obviosly nothing but a fraud if you can't say anything more specific than that. I'm on to you Batman Jr.

[Cleopatra]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).

Let's analyze this for a bit.

Since antiquity predictions were used as tools in order to make decisions about the future or take necessary precautions to prevent human loses.

For the sake of people you must give it another try and be more specific. Interestingly you exclude Middle East from your prediction. Maybe you haven't heard the news as to what will happen in the period between 1 and 6 of August in the Occupied Territories.

[Quinn]

Originally posted by Thomas

That prediction is way too vague, you're obviosly nothing but a fraud if you can't say anything more specific than that. I'm on to you Batman Jr.

I'll flesh out the prediction...

It's a birthday, yes, but I'm seeing some sort of controversy... something about the month before, like exactly one month earlier, and people being confused about that... something that maybe people used to believe, but it's been shown to be wrong... I'm seeing a grey-haired man talking about it on TV, trying to set things straight, talking about the same thing happening every year... is this making any sense?

[The Don]

Western target could refer both to the type of target and/or its location. As a result......

- Estonian embassy in Peru (HIT because it's a European target)
- Peruvian embassy in Estonia (HIT because it's a European location)
- Muslim school in Israel (HIT because it's a "Western Aligned" location)
- Israeli school in Papua New Guinea (HIT because it's a "Western Aligned" target)
- Iraqi school in Iraq (HIT because even though everyone involved is Iraqi - US presence in Iraq makes it a Western target)

About the only combination which wouldn't be a hit would be an attack in (say) Syria on (say) the Iranian embassy. Of course even this could be construed to be western if you consider the Iranians talking to the U.S. evidence of their Westernisation.

Possibly if a Syrian schoolgirl pulled another Syrian schoolgirl's pigtails - that *may* not be an attack with a Western target

[Jaggy Bunnet]

Originally posted by The Don
Possibly if a Syrian schoolgirl pulled another Syrian schoolgirl's pigtails - that *may* not be an attack with a Western target

Nope, pigtails are clearly an evil Western invention and therefore the attack is on a Western target (the pigtail) not a Syrian target (the girl). So even this is a hit.

[richardm]

Originally posted by Jaggy Bunnet


Nope, pigtails are clearly an evil Western invention and therefore the attack is on a Western target (the pigtail) not a Syrian target (the girl). So even this is a hit.

Obviously you're correct: no true muslim would want to be associated with any part of a pig. Clearly a strike against the West.

[Ed]

Originally posted by Cleopatra


Let's analyze this for a bit.

OK. Let me get a brew and I'll be right with you......OK begin

Since antiquity predictions were used as tools in order to make decisions about the future or take necessary precautions to prevent human loses.

Yes and due to the clear reality of such predictions over the centuries, every head of state, corporate executive and other powerful person has their own personal soothsayer. I believe that it is a Cabinet position in the US.

Another reason why this sort of stuff fails the sniff test. If there were an ounce of truth to it we would see it everywhere. A fact conviniently ignored by fools like luci and ian and others. The lack of ubiquity is enough to kill the idea. I am now waiting for a semi-literate statement about the church killing the growing woo market in the middle ages because it was communication with the evil one.

For the sake of people you must give it another try and be more pecific. Interestingly you exclude Middle East from your prediction. Maybe you haven't heard the news as to what will happen in the period between 1 and 6 of August in the Occupied Territories.

Cleo, do not try to engage. There is nothing on the other side. Hey, luci, do you believe in the power of prayer?

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Cleopatra


For the sake of people you must give it another try and be more specific.

I wish I could, Cleopatra. However, I can only report what I percieve.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I wish I could, Cleopatra. However, I can only report what I percieve.

Come now, that's very uncharacteristic of you.

You know how it works:

You come up with an extremely vague "perception" that can fit anything.

Then you begin interpreting, misinterpreting and flat-out lie, claiming that you "succeeded".

You then go elsewhere and falsely claim to have been tested by the JREF, or other groups or organizations.

(Unfortunately for you, skeptics have a nasty habit of showing up, providing evidence not only that your "predictions" are complete failures, you also cheat, lie and misrepresent)

[Cleopatra]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


I wish I could, Cleopatra. However, I can only report what I percieve. I wish you could too :( It drives me crazy when I know that there might be even one slight possibility to save lives of innocent people and yet we can't do it.

But I have a question. If the prediction is too vague why you make it? Don't you see the moral problem that rises here?

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Cleopatra
I wish you could too :( It drives me crazy when I know that there might be even one slight possibility to save lives of innocent people and yet we can't do it.

But I have a question. If the prediction is too vague why you make it? Don't you see the moral problem that rises here?

I am happy not to post predictions. I have been asked to post these further perceptions by other members following 'ladybrook' .

But if you don't want to know about them, fine. I'll stop.

[TLN]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I am happy not to post predictions. I have been asked to post these further perceptions by other members following 'ladybrook' .

But if you don't want to know about them, fine. I'll stop.

None of this answers Cleo's question.

Here it is again so you can continue to ignore it:

Originally posted by Cleopatra
But I have a question. If the prediction is too vague why you make it? Don't you see the moral problem that rises here?

[davidhorman]

However, I can only report what I percieve.

Really? I thought you could predict at least three out of six lottery numbers every week?

David

[Marian]

Lucianarchy, how do you come up with these predictions?

You used the word 'percieve' many times, I'm not sure what you mean by that term.

It seems to me to be weird that you could be so specific about a date in time, yet so vague about what, and where. But when...you can narrow down to a specific 24 hour period months away. So I'm just trying to understand how you obtained this information so specifically while everything else was so vague (vision, voices, etc).

[Thomas]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).

I can feel that you're right, Lucianarchy. I know you're not a fraud, because I have much experience in these matters in contrary to all these narrow-minded skeptics in here. I was wondering if you can help me, because I'm in pain - serious suffering.

I can't find my antipsychotics, can you please tell me where they are?

[Lisa Simpson]

Originally posted by Huntsman


Actually, I was about 5 miles away from this when it happened.

There were no US soldiers stationed at or near the police station.

The US had no liasons with the Iraqi police station.

We didn't visit the Iraqi police station.

We didn't provide direct support to the Iraqi police in the normal course of their duties.

The only time any US personnel visted the Iraqi police HQ was to turn over prisoners that we had captured and determined should be handled by local authorities, rather than US authorities.

The US has no direct authority over the Iraqi police, and they act pretty much autonomously.

Finally, seeing that I was stationed there, it seems odd that no one really, ever, talked much about this incident because, well, it was inconsequential when one looked at it. Both before and after it were attacks that involved more total people, more US personnel, and caused more damage.

If one can only predict the least significant events, what use is prediciton? There was nothing special about that day, or that attack..in fact, it was rather unremarkable given the history of the area before and after. Predicting a hot day in the summer is about as impressive.

Lucianarchy--

How do you respond to the above post? Obviously, I can't vouch for the veracity of Huntsman's account, but it is my impression from watching the news that he is correct. The Iraqi HQ was in no way, shape or form a Western target.

[Cleopatra]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


I am happy not to post predictions. I have been asked to post these further perceptions by other members following 'ladybrook' .

But if you don't want to know about them, fine. I'll stop. No i am all for predictions. I keep predicting the creation of the Palestinian State for two years now but please if you wish explain to me this because it's important for me.

What's your opinion on the morality of a vague prediction? Can't you see a problem here and if not why is that?

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Thomas
I can feel that you're right, Lucianarchy. I know you're not a fraud, because I have much experience in these matters in contrary to all these narrow-minded skeptics in here. I was wondering if you can help me, because I'm in pain - serious suffering.

I can't find my antipsychotics, can you please tell me where they are?

A slight word of warning here.

Lucianarchy - the BigLiar - is apt to take these kinds of posts and abuse them for his own purposes. He has done it before, he will do it again. Normal rational thought does not apply to him.

Don't joke around the BigLiar. He will seek to be approved, even by those meaning to do the opposite. He will skew, he will lie, he will misrepresent, he will do anything to make it seem as if he has supernatural powers.

If you do choose to play games with him, you will find that you have been abused.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Cleopatra


What's your opinion on the morality of a vague prediction?

I have been asked by fellow skeptics to present them here. 'Vague' is a value judgement. For some, even a photograph is 'vague'. I can only present what I percieve. These perceptions come through guided, structured meditation sessions. In terms of morality, remember the context; they are only presented here, within a skeptics forum.

[Nyarlathotep]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


I have been asked by fellow skeptics to present them here. 'Vague' is a value judgement. For some, even a photograph is 'vague'. I can only present what I percieve. These perceptions come through guided, structured meditation sessions. In terms of morality, remember the context; they are only presented here, within a skeptics forum.

But come on. You have to realize that there are degrees of vagueness. When you say "Something awful" is going to happen on such and such a date, it is SO vague that unless the world has the only day total peace and tranquility ever experienced in human history, that it can't help but be true. "Something Awful" could encompass anything from the destruction of all life as we know it down to someone getting a harsh beating, and just about anything in between.

There is vague and then there is so vague as to have no meaning whatsoever. Your "prediction" falls into the latter category.

My prediction is, that no matter what happens on August 4th, whether it be war, crime, terrorism, natural disaster or anything else remotely bad, you will sieze upon it as "proof" of your abilities. Completely oblivious that awful things happen everyday in the world.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Lisa Simpson


Lucianarchy--

How do you respond to the above post? Obviously, I can't vouch for the veracity of Huntsman's account, but it is my impression from watching the news that he is correct. The Iraqi HQ was in no way, shape or form a Western target.

I disagree. The Iraqi Governing Council, which currently controls and has authority for the police in Falluja, is a puppet of the USA. In this particular case, the BBC confirm the US involvement in Falluja:

"The BBC's Jonny Dymond in Baghdad reports that many of Iraq's neighbours are deeply unhappy about the continuing US-led occupation and some do not want to give legitimacy to the coalition-selected Governing Council. "
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3488149.stm

[Lisa Simpson]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


I disagree. The Iraqi Governing Council, which currently controls and has authority for the police in Falluja, is a puppet of the USA. In this particular case, the BBC confirm the US involvement in Falluja:

"The BBC's Jonny Dymond in Baghdad reports that many of Iraq's neighbours are deeply unhappy about the continuing US-led occupation and some do not want to give legitimacy to the coalition-selected Governing Council. "
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/3488149.stm

Uh huh, and what does that have to do with the Iraqi police department? The report from Huntsman said the US had almost nothing to do with the PD. The US involvement seems to be more on a national scale, as in your quote coalition-selected Governing Council, not coalition-backed police department.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Nyarlathotep


But come on. You have to realize that there are degrees of vagueness. When you say "Something awful" is going to happen on such and such a date, it is SO vague that unless the world has the only day total peace and tranquility ever experienced in human history, that it can't help but be true. "Something Awful" could encompass anything from the destruction of all life as we know it down to someone getting a harsh beating, and just about anything in between.

There is vague and then there is so vague as to have no meaning whatsoever. Your "prediction" falls into the latter category.

My prediction is, that no matter what happens on August 4th, whether it be war, crime, terrorism, natural disaster or anything else remotely bad, you will sieze upon it as "proof" of your abilities. Completely oblivious that awful things happen everyday in the world.

I understand, but I can only provide what I percieve. The 'awful' aspect of the perception seemed to project over 100 casualties (death or serious injury). I really hope I am wrong. But the perception was strong.

[Marian]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
These perceptions come through guided, structured meditation sessions.

Can you describe that process in detail? And how these perceptions appear, what they are, etc.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Lisa Simpson


Uh huh, and what does that have to do with the Iraqi police department? The report from Huntsman said the US had almost nothing to do with the PD. The US involvement seems to be more on a national scale, as in your quote coalition-selected Governing Council, not coalition-backed police department.

lol! Are you serious? If you want to believe the IGC are not the invading forces puppets, then that's up to you.

[Lisa Simpson]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


lol! Are you serious? If you want to believe the IGC are not the invading forces puppets, then that's up to you.

For the "federal" government of Iraq, you bet I know it's a puppet government.

For the Iraqi PD, not so much. And we have a first hand account of US involvement with the very Iraqi police station that was attacked. Are you saying your knowledge of the situation in Iraq is greater than a person who was actually there?!?

BTW, Huntsman, feel free to jump back in here.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Marian


Can you describe that process in detail? And how these perceptions appear, what they are, etc.

Sure. I'll put some time aside over the weekend if you want.

ITMT, if you go over to the Fortean Times forum and look for my posts over there, you will find some detail and method buried within. You may have to join first if you want to 'search'.

Best wishes.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Lisa Simpson


For the "federal" government of Iraq, you bet I know it's a puppet government.

For the Iraqi PD, not so much.



Oh, you are serious! Lisa, the police come under the control of the IGC. They are not recognised by the Iraqi's loyal to Saddam Hussain.

[Lisa Simpson]

So apparently you do think you know more than someone who was there.

I give up. You are all knowing, all seeing...except when you aren't.

[Nyarlathotep]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


I understand, but I can only provide what I percieve. The 'awful' aspect of the perception seemed to project over 100 casualties (death or serious injury). I really hope I am wrong. But the perception was strong.

Well, at least you ahve narrowed it down to something checkable. Even so, given the fact that the world averages 17 wars going on at any given time, plus assorted natural disasters, acts of terrorism, and so on, your prediction still isn't that impressive if it comes true. It's about like me predicting that there will be a massive wildfire going on in the Western US on that day. It's not GUARANTEED to be true, but it's so darn likely that no one should be surprised if it comes to pass.

[Beleth]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).
I am grateful that you are not calling this a "prediction" because it is not.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Lisa Simpson
So apparently you do think you know more than someone who was there.


I am telling you the facts, Lisa, as reported by the likes of the BBC and other leading reporters, not some guy on an internet forum who wants be a friggen spider!

The IGC are puppets of the US/invading forces. They control the police. They are not recognised by the Iraqi's loyal to Saddam Hussain. Lisa, these are facts. Well known facts.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Nyarlathotep


Well, at least you ahve narrowed it down to something checkable. Even so, given the fact that the world averages 17 wars going on at any given time, plus assorted natural disasters, acts of terrorism, and so on, your prediction still isn't that impressive if it comes true. It's about like me predicting that there will be a massive wildfire going on in the Western US on that day. It's not GUARANTEED to be true, but it's so darn likely that no one should be surprised if it comes to pass.

Actually, in terms of number of casualties in a western target, it is not likely to happen. There are many more days that such things don't happen. Horrific as they are, it does almost seem like they are almost happening every day. So let's hope and pray they continue not to happen.

[Nyarlathotep]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


Actually, in terms of number of casualties in a western target, it is not likely to happen. There are many more days that such things don't happen. Horrific as they are, it does almost seem like they are almost happening every day. So let's hope and pray they continue not to happen.

It depends on how broadly you define 'western'. Since you consider the Iraqi police station in Fallujah a 'western' target, I think you define 'western' a lot more broadly than I would. Enabling you to make a hit out of almost anything.

[Thomas]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
If you do choose to play games with him, you will find that you have been abused.

Thanks for the advice.

However, since everybody in here knows he's a fraud, and the only ones that will ever belive that he have superpowers are either stupid or insane, I don't think that I have anything to lose really. But thanks anyway.

[Marian]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).

Also, as far as location goes...you've narrowed it down to UK, USA, and 'Europe'.

Europe is kinda vague (at least to me). Is it the EU nations? Western Europe only? ALL of Europe? What nations would that include or not include. Remember I am American and we're geographically challenged. ;) (Actually I am at any rate hehe)

http://eqscreenshot.homestead.com/files/PredictionMap842004.JPG

I took the liberty of coloring in the USA (hey, at least I know where that is ;D) I was wondering if you could indicate all the other locations as well. It would give a decent idea of the representitive land mass we're talking about here.

If you can't rehost it, just PM me and I'll give you my email where you can send the image (you can color it using MSPaint) and I'd be happy to host it. :)

[T'ai Chi]

Originally posted by Nigel
Two nations will go to war, but only one will win. There. Ain't that pretty specific?

When two countries go to war, there is no winner. That's pretty clear.

[Marian]

Originally posted by T'ai Chi


When two countries go to war, there is no winner. That's pretty clear.

I always loved how the Pythia (Oracle at Delphi) stated it when Croesus asked if he should attack Persia. "Croesus will destroy a great empire".

Too bad she left out which one. ;) Details, details!

[Beleth]

Originally posted by Beleth
I am grateful that you are not calling this a "prediction" because it is not. Oops, I lied. You are calling this a prediction, up there in the subject line.

Trouble is, it isn't an interesting prediction. It ranks down there with "tomorrow the sun will rise." Even if something major happens on August 4th, it won't be an interesting prediction. But I don't suppose you will ever see it that way.

[Nigel]

Originally posted by T'ai Chi


When two countries go to war, there is no winner. That's pretty clear.
I didn't tell where I got the line. It's from Woody Allen's "Without Feathers". The point was about the vaugeness of the current topic.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I have been asked by fellow skeptics to present them here. 'Vague' is a value judgement. For some, even a photograph is 'vague'. I can only present what I percieve. These perceptions come through guided, structured meditation sessions.

Oh?

(All quotes from this thread) (http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/printthread.php?s=&threadid=23702)

The psi effect works only through co-operation, that is why Randi has the "Out" in his challenge, a challenge is not co-operation.

...just the living systems which are consciously involved. You are more likely to get a positive result that way.

They were not consciously aware that they were being 'viewed'. This is crucial and perhaps one reason why it currently cannot be given any 'official' recognition. There are security issues involved here that may still take generations to be fully resolved.

The SAIC experiments have done this. They used the scientific method. All participants were co-operative.

I get impressions, perceptions not predictions.

How often? Often daily, but vague and the sort of thing which would not qualify as a lead in this forum, it would just generate ridicule and taunts. However, often I act on these leads in daily life and use them to positive effect. Spontaneous? Difficult to say really, yes, sometimes, like in this case, the information seems to come 'through' me - bolt from the blue so to speak. Usually a compelling seemingly important word or impression of something. These sorts of perceptions seem to be immiment forms of precognition and often occur within the same day. I can and do prepare myself for some work though and use meditation these days, directing my consciousness and visualising in what I see as a 'universal' point in space-time. I would add though, that my experience is that there needs to be a lot of what you might call 'spiritual fitness' and an understanding of free will and responsibility in order to develop the effect. If you think I would "record them here" after the kind of treatment I have experienced here, think again. It is exactly the sort of behaviour which stops many 'psychics' from coming forward, although I would suggest that if anyone is genuinely interested and has experienced an ability to either RV, precognition etc, to do yuor own research and follow the leads to the places which feel right to you. And be prepared to be skeptical of everything you may have been lead to believe before, have the humility to learn again. One thing I can say - like minds attract - have belief in yourself - and you will not go far wrong.
(On how often you get these precognitive/RVing insights)

So, regarding this new prediction of yours that will happen on August 4th 2004:


What "living systems" "consciously involved" are you talking about?
What "participants" are "co-operative"?
Do you get predictions, yes or no?
Do these perceptions come through guided, structured meditation sessions, yes or no?


Please answer the questions. They are polite, reasonable, rational questions about a claim you have made.

[davidhorman]

It's lottery day tomorrow. Bought a ticket yet, Luci?

David

[Cleopatra]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I have been asked by fellow skeptics to present them here. Fellow skeptics? Does this mean that you describe yourself as a skeptic? That is interesting. In that case I am sure that you understand that the process we follow in examining claims is sort of specific. Right?
'Vague' is a value judgement. For some, even a photograph is 'vague'. It is a value judgement indeed generally speaking but when it comes to measures that should be taken in order to protect the general public then vague is definetly a flaw I am sure that you can see that. I can only present what I percieve. That's fair but when it comes to a danger that hides somewhere we expect more.These perceptions come through guided, structured meditation sessions. In terms of morality, remember the context; they are only presented here, within a skeptics forum. Yes your perceptions are presented in a skeptics forum but somebody who describes himself as a skeptic so you understand that this changes the picture dramatically.You know what I mean.

I have a question out of curiosity. I follow the Middle Eastern conflict since I was 16 and I have a personal involvement as well, judging by the news I read the last two days I have this strong feeling that something really bad will happen. Is this feeling of mine the same as yours? I mean shall I call it a "perception of a forthcoming danger"?

[EHocking]

Originally posted by EHocking
OK.... ahem.....

"Your deceased relatives still love you"

Where's my money?
Originally posted by Lothian
So a spiritualist but not a remote viewer. :p

[hmmmmpphhhhhh] OK - I've pushed my chair back away from the PC as far as the keyboard cable will stretch.

Is that remote enough to qualify?

[Lothian]

Originally posted by EHocking


[hmmmmpphhhhhh] OK - I've pushed my chair back away from the PC as far as the keyboard cable will stretch.

Is that remote enough to qualify? OK you win. You can collect it using telekinesis any time you want. ;)

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Cleopatra


I have a question out of curiosity. I follow the Middle Eastern conflict since I was 16 and I have a personal involvement as well, judging by the news I read the last two days I have this strong feeling that something really bad will happen. Is this feeling of mine the same as yours? I mean shall I call it a "perception of a forthcoming danger"?

Ms Cleo, you may call it what you wish. I have explained why I am recording them here. If you don't accept that explanation, then that's not a problem for me.

[Cleopatra]

Why you give up so easily on me Lucianarchy? Is it because you think that I do not deserve some of your time to explain to me certain things? Also this is not the only question I asked you.

[CFLarsen]

Lucianarchy,

Regarding this new prediction of yours that will happen on August 4th 2004:


What "living systems" "consciously involved" are you talking about?
What "participants" are "co-operative"?
Do you get predictions, yes or no?
Do these perceptions come through guided, structured meditation sessions, yes or no?


Please answer the questions. They are polite, reasonable, rational questions about a claim you have made.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Cleopatra
Fellow skeptics? Does this mean that you describe yourself as a skeptic? That is interesting. In that case I am sure that you understand that the process we follow in examining claims is sort of specific. Right?


Sorry, Cleo, I missed that one.

Yes I am most certainly a sceptic. In terms of being specific, Ms Cleo, may I remind you that I am only posting them here because I was asked to. I can only provide what is percieved. Why is that difficult for you?

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Cleopatra
Why you give up so easily on me Lucianarchy? Is it because you think that I do not deserve some of your time to explain to me certain things?

What do want explaining, Cleo?

[Lucianarchy]

Regarding CF Larsen:

Larsen has made a distinct claim about my IP address.

He made the claim that they are "similar".

Saying it is "not resolved" is just about the most stupid thing I have seen from him to date. He either has the evidence, or he hasn't.

A claim which he uses to suggest I am responsible for writing something particulalrly unpleasant about Randi.

Such a claim without evidence is completely dispicable.

Until Larsen removes the dispicable claim and apologises, he remains in contempt and dishonest.

[Cleopatra]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
Ms Cleo, may I remind you that I am only posting them here because I was asked to.
And what if posters of this forum ask you to go get drown in Thames? Do you get my drift? I understand that you were asked to post your predictions but you want to as well. Right?

I can only provide what is percieved. Why is that difficult for you? This is crystal clear to me, what I do not understand though is how you don't see since you are a skeptic yourself that your predictions pose some problems. I am sure you know that and yet you decide to post them, how you bridge those two.

Also, I am interested to know how my funny feeling about a forthecoming tragedy in Middle East that is based on the daily reading of Press and stuff is similar or different to your perception. Where do we differ? Where our perceptions meet?

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Cleopatra

And what if posters of this forum ask you to go get drown in Thames? Do you get my drift? I understand that you were asked to post your predictions but you want to as well. Right?

This is crystal clear to me, what I do not understand though is how you don't see since you are a skeptic yourself that your predictions pose some problems. I am sure you know that and yet you decide to post them, how you bridge those two.

Also, I am interested to know how my funny feeling about a forthecoming tragedy in Middle East that is based on the daily reading of Press and stuff is similar or different to your perception. Where do we differ? Where our perceptions meet?

I am happy either way to post them or not.

I am sceptical about the nature of transmission of info accross space/time. I have seen enough evidence and experienced enough significance myself to warrant further study. It does indeed appear to 'work', I have not yet seen a rational non-mundane explanation for the effect.

I would say you would be wise to follow your own feelings. I do not know where our perceptions meet or where we differ. Do you record and review your 'funny feelings'?

[Hellbound]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


I am telling you the facts, Lisa, as reported by the likes of the BBC and other leading reporters, not some guy on an internet forum who wants be a friggen spider!

Does this mean that you want to be a bubble-head?

Mission accomplished, I'd say.

Since you make an issue of it, try checking the facts.

SGT Brister, Thaddeus B.
B Co, 489th ENG BN
Combat Medical Specialist, 91W20
Operating in support of 130th Engineers, later to 2nd Armored Calvary Division (Al Qaim), then 82nd Airborne Division (Al Fallujah).

I can show evidence that I was there, during the time period in question. I'm sure with the information above, others can check the data as well. I saw it first hand. You rely on the reports of a media that are more interested in the ratings than in truth.

No one is denying that the U.S> Government picked the council, or that the police operate (nominally) under the council.

However, this hardly makes them a "Western" target, any more than one could claim that China is a "Western" target because they are with us in trying to get North Korea to stop making nukes.

Not to mention that many of the Iraqis we discovered supplying weapons and targetting coordinates to terrorists were members of the Iraqi police. One member of the Iraqi police was caught with a mortar team, one of the groups that would shell our camp every night.

The Iraqi police are under the command of the council about tothe same degree that your local sheriff is under the command of Quantico. The local police units operated pretty much autonomously, and most of their orders came from the local mayor of the town they were in; not from the governing council in Bagdhad.

The only way you can fit your "prediction" of a western target to this event is to torture the meanings of words until they are meaningless; unless you mean western by "Anything west of Bagdhad."

"I predict that tomorrow afternoon will be brighter than the evening before" is a prediction as meaningful as yours. Yes, it is accurate, but, oddly enough, it's actually more useful than your vague ones. Even if you are actually seeing into the future, the level of accuracy you get makes such a talent completely and utterly worthless. What actions could we take based on your prediction? What possible changes could such vague information warrant?

None.

Meaningless, useless prediction.

Ya Bubblehead.

[TLN]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
It does indeed appear to 'work', I have not yet seen a rational non-mundane explanation for the effect.

Your predictions are vague and could apply to a variety of situations. There, that's a mundane explanation.

You're also a proven liar who is not to be trusted. Therefore, the possibility exists that you cheat. Another mundane explanation.

In later posts you'll claim, yet again, that you've yet to see a rational explanation for these silly predictions of yours that are completely without value. But I would expect as much from someone who lies as often as you do.

Until you answer my unanswered question you are a knowing liar and are not to be trusted.

http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&threadid=19311&pagenumber=4

[TheBoyPaj]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
You know how it works:

You come up with an extremely vague "perception" that can fit anything.

Then you begin interpreting, misinterpreting and flat-out lie, claiming that you "succeeded".

You then go elsewhere and falsely claim to have been tested by the JREF, or other groups or organizations.


In case we have anyone new here, Claus is referring to this episiode (http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&threadid=37798) where Luci tried to pass off some very average results in RV tests as impressive evidence of his ability (including my own test where his performance so far has been insignificant).

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Huntsman


No one is denying that the U.S> Government picked the council, or that the police operate (nominally) under the council.


Indeed, and that is why they are not recognised by the Iraqi's loyal to Saddam Hussain. They see the US as the invading force, understandably. If you honestly don't think the rebel fighters see the IGC's puppet police station in Falluja as a 'Western target', then that's up to you. :rolleyes:

[Hellbound]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


Indeed, and that is why they are not recognised by the Iraqi's loyal to Saddam Hussain. They see the US as the invading force, understandably. If you honestly don't think the rebel fighters see the IGC's puppet police station in Falluja as a 'Western target', then that's up to you. :rolleyes:

*chuckle*

If you can't understand that many of these "rebel fighters" (also read terrorists) are working in the police building, then that's your problem.

Bubblehead :D

[Beleth]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
It does indeed appear to 'work', I have not yet seen a rational non-mundane explanation for the effect.Just for a moment, put yourself in our shoes, Luci, and look at yourself and your statements the way we see you.

Here we are; it's May 14, 2004, and the US is fighting Iraq, with all that that implies. You come along and say something that would not be too unexpected will happen on a certain day about 2 1/2 months from now.

That's the key. "Not unexpected." What you are saying will happen is not an everyday occurrence, but considering the state of the world, it's not surprising that something like that will happen that day.

Plus, c'mon, you gotta admit that what you are saying is really, really vague. As others have said, "an attack on a Western target" could be anything from another beheading video coming from Iraq to a dirty bomb going off in Paris.

So. Here you are, saying not only that something not-unexpected will happen on a certain day, but that you received this information from some mystical method that involves time travel. Meanwhile, the rest of us live in this mundane world where we can make not-unexpected predictions without needing time travel.

I'm not saying that you won't be correct. I'm saying, that from where we're standing, what you are saying is simply not very compelling. It's not compelling as a prediction, and the method by which you say you receive this information is not compelling as a method of communication.

I'm sorry.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Huntsman


*chuckle*

If you can't understand that many of these "rebel fighters" (also read terrorists) are working in the police building, then that's your problem.

Bubblehead :D

So they attacked Falluja police station, because....... ?

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Beleth
Just for a moment, put yourself in our shoes, Luci, and look at yourself and your statements the way we see you.

Here we are; it's May 14, 2004, and the US is fighting Iraq, with all that that implies. You come along and say something that would not be too unexpected will happen on a certain day about 2 1/2 months from now.

That's the key. "Not unexpected." What you are saying will happen is not an everyday occurrence, but considering the state of the world, it's not surprising that something like that will happen that day.

Plus, c'mon, you gotta admit that what you are saying is really, really vague. As others have said, "an attack on a Western target" could be anything from another beheading video coming from Iraq to a dirty bomb going off in Paris.

So. Here you are, saying not only that something not-unexpected will happen on a certain day, but that you received this information from some mystical method that involves time travel. Meanwhile, the rest of us live in this mundane world where we can make not-unexpected predictions without needing time travel.

I'm not saying that you won't be correct. I'm saying, that from where we're standing, what you are saying is simply not very compelling. It's not compelling as a prediction, and the method by which you say you receive this information is not compelling as a method of communication.

I'm sorry.

No need for sorrow, Beleth. This one is another 'record' against which I can test significance. Like 'ladybrook', the tests I did for Koestler inst, the Fortean Times, and others personal to myself. The so-called RV 'effect' is subtle, small but repeatable. I remain sceptical as to the nature of the effect, to a third party I could indeed be just very 'lucky', however, my own experiences have confirmed that there is indeed some, as yet, unidentified, mode for information transmission which is not limited by our current understanding of time/space.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
No need for sorrow, Beleth. This one is another 'record' against which I can test significance. Like 'ladybrook', the tests I did for Koestler inst, the Fortean Times, and others personal to myself.

What, specifically, are you talking about?

Can we see the reports?

[Nyarlathotep]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


I remain sceptical as to the nature of the effect, to a third party I could indeed be just very 'lucky', however, my own experiences have confirmed that there is indeed some, as yet, unidentified, mode for information transmission which is not limited by our current understanding of time/space.

From what I have seen, neither psi nor luck is involved. Your 'predictions' (or perceptions, or whatever you wish to call them) are so open to interpretation that they can't possibly fail.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Nyarlathotep


From what I have seen, neither psi nor luck is involved. Your 'predictions' (or perceptions, or whatever you wish to call them) are so open to interpretation that they can't possibly fail.

Not so, some here have even accused me of cheating. Ranging from hcking to being a secret spy. :rolleyes:

[Nyarlathotep]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


Not so, some here have even accused me of cheating. Ranging from hcking to being a secret spy. :rolleyes:

I have never seen any such allegations. Please share.....

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Nyarlathotep


I have never seen any such allegations. Please share.....

No worries check out the 'ladybrook' example in my sig. :)

The 'explanations' range from hacking to using police scanners to being a terrorist. :rolleyes:

[Nyarlathotep]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


No worries check out the 'ladybrook' example in my sig. :)

The 'explanations' range from hacking to using police scanners to being a terrorist. :rolleyes:

Admittedly I only skimmed the umpteen bajillion pages of that thread, so I can't find any references to hacking or scanners, I do see that there was a lot of confusion about the time/date stamp on the post where the prediction was made, and given the conditions (the event happening so close to the posting), it seems a reasonable question to me. I also see a lot of people saying the same thinga bout that prediction as I have about your latest, that it is so vague as to be meaningless. I would say the same thing too, throwing out a name, ("ladybrook") with no details, and fishing for some significance afterwards doesn't mean a thing. Your predictions strike me much more as a case of making the facts fit afterwards, than foretelling the future.

[Beleth]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
The 'explanations' range from hacking to using police scanners to being a terrorist. :rolleyes: But again, from the perspective of us mundanes, all three of these explanations are more likely than the explanation that you are getting signals from the future.

They are extremely unlikely, granted. All I'm saying is that an RV explanation is even less likely.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Beleth
But again, from the perspective of us mundanes, all three of these explanations are more likely than the explanation that you are getting signals from the future.

They are extremely unlikely, granted. All I'm saying is that an RV explanation is even less likely.

The thing is, Beleth, I know I am not a spy, hacker or terrorist.

[TLN]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
The thing is, Beleth, I know I am not a spy, hacker or terrorist.

But we don't.

Also, since you're a proven liar, we don't trust you with this or any statement.

[Ceinwyn]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


The thing is, Beleth, I know I am not a spy, hacker or terrorist. You're not much of a remote viewer either.

"A western target" and you consider an Iraqi police station to be valid?

And now you expect us to believe that you have "sensed" something somewhere, sometime.

Luci. Stop being such an idiot. Please.

[Ceinwyn]

Ok, apparently wherever the United States is, is a western target. So look out all the rest of the world, except Africa.

Now, if Luci had said "Africa"...

oh wait. Nelson Mandela knows people in the U.S.

Damn.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by buki
Ok, apparently wherever the United States is, is a western target. So look out all the rest of the world, except Africa.

Now, if Luci had said "Africa"...

oh wait. Nelson Mandela knows people in the U.S.

Damn.

Africa is supported by the West, precisely as the Fallujah Iraqi police.

[Thumbo]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I percieve that something awful will occur that day.

Indeed. My 50th birthday.

[EHocking]

Originally posted by Lothian
OK you win. You can collect it using telekinesis any time you want. ;)

Checked your wallet recently?

I've just teleported it into my bank account. I wonder, will the bank charge me for this transaction, or merely think about charging me a transaction fee?

[Z]

Don't forget - on top of being a pathetic liar, a ridiculous example of a non-psychic, a troll, and a pseudo-sceptic, Luci here is also a pothead.

Let's see - read a bunch of papers about the state of the world, do a 'guided meditation' involving a hookah pipe and lots of incense, then make a vague prediction so vastly encompassing that you can't help but be right.

Luci, you're pathetic.

I predict something awful will happen on or about June 9, 2004 against a US associated target involving several injuries and at least one person named John, Ian, or possibly Jack.

I predict over the next two years there will be a significant astronomical event reported.

I predict in 2005 an actor will die.

I predict that sometime before the end of the decade there will be a major social change in the United States.

I predict that something significant will happen in a place called Springfield involving US citizens.

I predict that huge swarms of rarely-seen insects are about to cover my town within a few days.

There. Here's my predictions. They are all based on 'perception' and 'guided meditations' - but no weed. Let's see what my hit/miss ratio will be. I'm guessing they'll be pretty accurate - considering they're extremely vague and can be stretched to fit any interpretation I want to use.

Now, I challenge you, Luci, to come up with a specific perception - something undeniable, something definite.

Try this one: I predict that in the morning of September 12, 2004 in the city of Cincinnati, OH, USA, in the region of Clifton, a man wearing a brown jacket and a blue cap smoking a bent apple pipe with Admiral's Choice Vanilla Cavendish tobacco will meet a dark-haired woman wearing a blue sweater and carrying a copy of War and Peace. The two will exchance niceties, discuss the weather, and go their seperate ways, only to each be hit by the same drunk driver, whose name will be Eustace P. Juggs or something similar, driving a 1965 Chevy pickup truck in primer grey, rust, and turquoise, with a tattered bumper sticker that reads, "My son beat up your honor roll student."

If you can come up with a prediction even half this specific and get it right, I'll never say another word against you again. If the prediction I made comes true, I'll be in the hospital probably. Heck, if even only a third of my prediction comes true, I'll get a tattoo on my butt stating "Luci Is God"!

Gentleman's honor, I will.

So... how about that prediction, pothead?

[Cleopatra]

Hi Luci.

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I am happy either way to post them or not.Indeed but you choose to post them.I am sceptical about the nature of transmission of info accross space/time. I have seen enough evidence and experienced enough significance myself to warrant further study. It does indeed appear to 'work', I have not yet seen a rational non-mundane explanation for the effect. Ok but I have a question. How can you possibly check if the perception is accurate if it is that vague. You know what I mean, if not I can clarify.

I would say you would be wise to follow your own feelings. I do not know where our perceptions meet or where we differ. Do you record and review your 'funny feelings'? If you ask whether I keep a journal or not, the answer is not really since I do remember the day X that I read something about Middle East and I told myself:" Hmmmm if the info is accurate this means that we will have some unpleasant events".

If I say that I perceive that a suicide bombing will occur in Jerusalem in the next two months does this mean that we ( me and you that is) do the same thing in terms of predicting events?

[Cleopatra]

*cough*

[CFLarsen]

BigLiar has run away again...

[The Don]

I have, in my time, played quite a bit of bridge. This is a card game, played in opposing pairs in which one pair attempts to make a specified number of tricks with a nominated suit as trumps (or by specifying that there is no trump suit). The decision as to how many tricks and which trump suit is made by means of an auction in which successively higher bids are made.

Over the years, a set of bidding conventions have developed to better enable the correct combination of number of tricks and trump suit to be found. In some cases one finds oneself going through the motions of adhering to the conventions despite knowing where you need to get to in terms of the bidding.

I fear that Lucianarchy's threads come down to a skeptical convention. Despite the fact that his/her/its predictions are so clearly vague and bogus, we have do go through the effort of an attempted debunk if only to prevent Lucianarchy going to other boards and claiming our acquiescence as a victory.

In the same way that (depending on convention) 1NT promises 12-14 pts and a balanced hand or that a 2 clubs response is asking about a major suit perhaps we could develop a "conventional" response to Lucianarchy's nonsense ?

Perhaps we could have bids such as: 1 No Clue; 2 Stupid to Consider; 4 Goodness Sake Shutup ?

[T'ai Chi]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
BigLiar has run away again...

How do you run on a bulletin board?

Anything like this: http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&threadid=37789?

What do you think, Claus?

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by T'ai Chi
Anything like this: http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&threadid=37789?

What do you think, Claus?

Please stop hijacking threads.

[Cleopatra]

Although Lucianarchy told me that he will reply in questions in threads that are worded in a civil manner he hasn't replied to my last questions.
I am bumping this thread in case he forgot about it.

[TLN]

Originally posted by Cleopatra
Although Lucianarchy told me that he will reply in questions in threads that are worded in a civil manner he hasn't replied to my last questions.
I am bumping this thread in case he forgot about it.

This is nothing new. Lucianarchy's claim that he answers direct questions asked in a civil manner in the thread in which he originally made the claim is a simple lie. There are many, many examples of this.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by TLN
This is nothing new. Lucianarchy's claim that he answers direct questions asked in a civil manner in the thread in which he originally made the claim is a simple lie. There are many, many examples of this.

Right here in this thread. I posted this to Lucianarchy:

So, regarding this new prediction of yours that will happen on August 4th 2004:


What "living systems" "consciously involved" are you talking about?
What "participants" are "co-operative"?
Do you get predictions, yes or no?
Do these perceptions come through guided, structured meditation sessions, yes or no?


Please answer the questions. They are polite, reasonable, rational questions about a claim you have made.

I have repeated it several times, because Lucianarchy did not answer these polite, reasonable, rational questions about a claim he has made.

I will make sure that this thread does not disappear, ever.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Cleopatra
Hi Luci.

Indeed but you choose to post them. Ok but I have a question. How can you possibly check if the perception is accurate if it is that vague. You know what I mean, if not I can clarify.

If you ask whether I keep a journal or not, the answer is not really since I do remember the day X that I read something about Middle East and I told myself:" Hmmmm if the info is accurate this means that we will have some unpleasant events".

If I say that I perceive that a suicide bombing will occur in Jerusalem in the next two months does this mean that we ( me and you that is) do the same thing in terms of predicting events?

Hi, Cleo. I haven't been able to get on much recently.
Nothing's 'proof'. The 'vague' subjective value has to be self evident.

I have already said, I don't know what your 'funny feelings / predictions mean to you. I record mine so any 'luck' effect can be measured.

[CFLarsen]

Lucianarchy,

Regarding this new prediction of yours that will happen on August 4th 2004:


What "living systems" "consciously involved" are you talking about?
What "participants" are "co-operative"?
Do you get predictions, yes or no?
Do these perceptions come through guided, structured meditation sessions, yes or no?


Please answer the questions. They are polite, reasonable, rational questions about a claim you have made.

[TheBoyPaj]

And while you're at it, I'm still waiting for a reply to this question from March:

"What, exactly, do you claim to be able to do?"

(From http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&threadid=37798&perpage=40&pagenumber=3 )

[Belgian thought]

�gNothing's 'proof'�h can this apply to your "Ladybrook" prediction? Probabilities as used in your reasoning should not be added but multiplied and would tend towards zero.

As an aside, is zero the proof of nothing?

�gThe 'vague' subjective value has to be self evident�h surely should read; �gThe subjective value has to be vaguely self evident�h this has some meaning and sense whilst your sentence did not.

"I have already said, I don't know what your 'funny feelings / predictions mean to you. I record mine so any 'luck' effect can be measured."

Just like a compulsive gambler who always tells you about his wins!

And to finish off, any words regarding your pretty poor performance in TheBoyPaj�fs experiment? Were/are you having a vague kind of blankout?

[Ed]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


Hi, Cleo. I haven't been able to get on much recently.
Nothing's 'proof'. The 'vague' subjective value has to be self evident.

I have already said, I don't know what your 'funny feelings / predictions mean to you. I record mine so any 'luck' effect can be measured.


What sort of events would you admit to not fulfilling the characteristics of your vision?

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Huntsman


*chuckle*

If you can't understand that many of these "rebel fighters" (also read terrorists) are working in the police building, then that's your problem.

Bubblehead :D

In all your name-calling and chuckling you seem to have missed replying to my response, Hunty:

So the police station at Falluja was attacked because...?

[thaiboxerken]

To counter Luci's claim, I will give my prediction that something nice will happen in the western world on that very same day.

;)

When one makes very vague and broad predictions, the chances of success are almost 100%. Nice try, Luci, but no rational person has ever been impressed by your "predictions".

[DickK]

Originally posted by thaiboxerken
To counter Luci's claim, I will give my prediction that something nice will happen in the western world on that very same day.

;)

When one makes very vague and broad predictions, the chances of success are almost 100%. Nice try, Luci, but no rational person has ever been impressed by your "predictions". Actually, good point tbk, given relative notions of "nice" and "awful", who's to judge this frickin prediction anyway. What a crock.

[Thomas]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
Nothing's 'proof'. The 'vague' subjective value has to be self evident.
Polite question for Lucianarchy (http://www.pixcells.dk/sounds/wavfile.wav)

[thaiboxerken]

That is pretty funny, Thomas!! :D

[Cleopatra]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


Hi, Cleo. I haven't been able to get on much recently.
No worries.
Nothing's 'proof'. The 'vague' subjective value has to be self evident. Could you explain this to me please? Also what will constitute a fullfilment of your prediction?

I have already said, I don't know what your 'funny feelings / predictions mean to you. I record mine so any 'luck' effect can be measured. How do you record them? Do you mean that you tale notes like " Something terrible will happen on August the 4th"? Because my predictions are not that vague I mean I say " I bet that in a time frame of two months from now a bomb will explode in Jerusalem.

Can you tell me if our predictions have any similarities or differences?

[Hellbound]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


In all your name-calling and chuckling you seem to have missed replying to my response, Hunty:

So the police station at Falluja was attacked because...?

No, Luci, I saw your reply, I declined to answer it.

Because, really, you just don't grasp the basics.

They attacked it because some of those were working against the terrorists as well. It was a mixed bag. This is a classic example of Luci's strawman...I only stated that some police worked with terrorists. Luci seems to think I believe they all were. Not true, nor did I claim or imply such.

However, there's still no reason to call the Iraqi police a "Western" target. They assisted U.S. operations on their own basis (i.e.-we might ask them to help with crowd control or translation, but they made their own mind what to do and how to enforce their laws). They were not under the command of any U.S. personnel (you can argue about the council here, but the council doesn't micromanage every police station and, although selected by the U.S., the council is made up of Iraqis). Although some assisted us, some actively assisted the terrorists (gaining access to military areas and getting targetting information, or using police vehicles to transport personel and weaponry).

You'd be as accurate calling Toyota am Amrican company. They're a Japanese one, even if a large portion of their sales is in the U.S. Likewise, the Iraqi police are not a Western target, even if many of them cooperate with U.S. forces.

Basically, talk to me when you get some actual knowledge of conditions over there (and I can conclusively say that the media coverage, even by CNN and the BBC, while technically accurate, is very slanted and misleading as to the actual conditions).

I'll make an even better prediciton.

Sometime in the last two weeks of June or the first two of July, an attack will occur in Iraq (see, I even get the type or tragedy and the specific country, already two up on you). This attack will involve both coalition forces and Sunni Moslems(also got two specific groups involved, not vague terms such as "Western target" which I then interpret to be anything I want). There will be casualties, although the number is not clear (here I only tied you).

Now, can you get any more specific than that? Well, my predicition is quite simply based on what would be obvious to anyone with a brain that could understand the situation. Yours is less precise. Now, if your psychic powers provide less information than simply deducing a likelihood, what good are they? You aren't seeing the future, you're getting vague impressions from anxiety and misrepresenting them.

Call me when you have something useful, until then, you're another fraud.

Oh, and by the way, why focusing on me? Upset that I decided to ignore you for a while? There are many, many other questions here, many much more directly related to your claims. Of course, easier to snipe at someone you think has a chance of not replying, than answer the hard questions others have posted.

Edited to add: Namecalling? Pot...kettle..kettle...pot
Sod off Bubblehead, you started that crap with the wants to be a spider BS (in the process of blowing off the fact that, unlike weasels like yourself, I am willing to put my life on the line for my beliefs. If your predictions are so accurate, why the f**k are you sitting on your a$$? Get to the #$%^#$% middle east and save the lives of the peopel you foresee. But no, you'd rather sit back and snicker as they get legs blown off, wouldn't you? Make you feel all superior? Give you that great "I told you so" feeling when you watch them pick up body parts from U.S. troops, civillians, and Iraqi children on the news? You make me sick, either way. Either you're a fraud, or a completely callous psychopath. Of course, could be both).

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Huntsman



Basically, talk to me when you get some actual knowledge of conditions over there (and I can conclusively say that the media coverage, even by CNN and the BBC, while technically accurate, is very slanted and misleading as to the actual conditions).


Hunty, we're not talking about the conditions in Iraq.

We're talking about the police station in Falluja.

Let me make this simple for you.

The US/coalition invaded Iraq.

They set up an interim 'puppet' council (IGC) who are not in any shape or form recognised by the Iraqi's loyal to Saddam Hussein.

The Iraqi's see this as western imperialism invading their country.

The fact that you were there, and are still ignorant of the facts, is quite astounding, to say the least.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Cleopatra

No worries.
Could you explain this to me please? Also what will constitute a fullfilment of your prediction?

How do you record them? Do you mean that you tale notes like " Something terrible will happen on August the 4th"? Because my predictions are not that vague I mean I say " I bet that in a time frame of two months from now a bomb will explode in Jerusalem.

Can you tell me if our predictions have any similarities or differences?

Only you know if your feelings are predictions or not.

There is no "fullifment". I have already said that the perceptions are often vague, it is the fact that significant repeated correlations occur over time that warrant the recording. To juts have one correlation is perhaps lucky. But I have been able to do this over many occaisions. If you were to record yours for times, feelings and descriptions, you would perhaps be able to see if there was a pattern over chance.

[CFLarsen]

Lucianarchy,

Regarding this new prediction of yours that will happen on August 4th 2004:


What "living systems" "consciously involved" are you talking about?
What "participants" are "co-operative"?
Do you get predictions, yes or no?
Do these perceptions come through guided, structured meditation sessions, yes or no?


Please answer the questions. They are polite, reasonable, rational questions about a claim you have made.

[thaiboxerken]

Only you know if your feelings are predictions or not.

With such a purely subjective standard, what makes you actually think you'll convince any skeptic that you have superpowers?

[Hellbound]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


Hunty, we're not talking about the conditions in Iraq.

We're talking about the police station in Falluja.

Let me make this simple for you.

The US/coalition invaded Iraq.

They set up an interim 'puppet' council (IGC) who are not in any shape or form recognised by the Iraqi's loyal to Saddam Hussein.

The Iraqi's see this as western imperialism invading their country.

The fact that you were there, and are still ignorant of the facts, is quite astounding, to say the least.

Let me make this simple for you, since you have never been there and still don't understand the situation:

The Iraqi police are, by vast majority, the same Iraqis who held those positions before we got there. SO the police are, for the most part, the recognized ones (or, they were until Saddam did away with the civillian police force).

The Iraqi police are assisting U.S. troops (in general), but this no more makes them a 'Western' target than Japan is a 'Western' target because they have people there.

Some Iraqis see this as western imperialism invaading, yes, and they strike out at both 'Western' targets and sympathetic Iraqi targets.

No matter how one consdiers it (unless you torture the words to the point where they have no meaning) the Iraqi police, while assiting the coalition and 'Western' troops, are not a 'Western' target but an Iraqi one. The government in Bagdhad has very little to do with the day to day operations of the police, the police do very little to assist the coalition (primarily accepting prisoners we don't want to hold and making a showing in some areas to help keep crowds away from dangerous operations, such as bomb disposal), they are made up of Iraqi citizens (including leadership), they tend to take their commands from the local 'mayor', not from the coalition emplaced government, and while they (in general) support the coalition, they are not a 'Western' target.

In any case, I still stand by my point. If your predicitons are so vague as to be useless, how the heck can you even assume they are predicitions? If the best you can get is something like you've posted so far, or something like my earlier 'prediction', then there is no proof there. Heck, I'll even narrow my time frame to the last week of June. Bet my prediction will be right, too...not to mention more accurate and precise. Nothign you have posted could lead to any sort of proof, you'll have to have specifics. The eevidence suggests that the far more likely explanation, given the absolute worhtlessness of your predictions and their unverifiability, that you are fooling yourself into these visions. If your subjective experience is all that tells you it's a prediciton (I.e.-you feel like it is), then this lends even more weight to the idea that your imagination is simply drawing likely conclusions, picking dates at random, and for whatever reason you 'feel' like you're seeing the future. If I clear my mind and wait for a date, one will pop up. It's not a prediciton, it's simply my mind wandering to a day.

Case dismissed due to lack of evidence. You may appeal with new evidcence in this case, until then, I'm done here.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Huntsman


[...]
Some Iraqis see this as western imperialism invaading, yes [...]

"some"?! I think that may just about be the stupidest, most ignorant thing you have farted out so far.

[Hellbound]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


"some"?! I think that may just about be the stupidest, most ignorant thing you have farted out so far.

AH, I see.

You have never been to Iraq.

You have not talked to Iraqis about twhat they believe or want.

THe only information you have is from CNN/BBC/etc.

Yet you know what they see things as? You know their thoughts and feelings?

I talked to many Iraqi civillians there, and even some of the POWs we had.

The majority want the U.S. there, and don't see it as 'western imperialism'. They do want us to hurry and get things fixed and turn it over to them, but the situation is far from it's protrayal in the media. The media are doing to Iraq what they do in Palestine and Isreal. Anti-US protests in Palestine generally involve a minority, but that isn't the impression one gets from news media. Likewsie in Iraq.

Frankly, Luci, you have no standing or basis for your assertions. I also notice you still failed to address the many other points in last post; instead you choose to squibble over a minor point that really isn't gernmaine to the discussion. Nice evasion, Bubblehead.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Huntsman


I talked to many Iraqi civillians there, and even some of the POWs we had.

The majority want the U.S. there, and don't see it as 'western imperialism'.

:dl:

[Hellbound]

This, from someone who uses 30 second sound bites as their primary source :rolleyes:

As I stated before, I'm done here, especially considering that Luci can't even confine her/his/itself to addressing the main points.

[Aussie Thinker]

Hunstman,

You have ELOQUENTLY made a complete mess of Luci !

Pretty funny considering you are an “ignerent” soldier and she/he/it is a master expert in Psi ! (bwahaha.. whatever the hell that is)

Don’t leave though.. your insights here are fantastic and I am sure most of us here like to hear from people “on the ground” much more than us armchair experts !

People forget that Iraq was ALWAYS a model of secularism in the Arab world and was a very advanced well developed country.. in fact until he went of the rails with paranoia it was even a fairly well run dictatorship !

A HUGE number of Iraqis are Urbane secularists who WOULD love the US to straighten things out. Luci doesn’t realise that moderate secularists do NOT march and chant in mobs in the street.. they don’t make good copy.. they also don’t want to make themselves a target for the fringe nutters !

I hope the US sort things out there.. wether they can or not may be another thing .. I wish them the best of luck though.

[Ceinwyn]

Where I live (Ottawa, Canada) there are quite a few families of Middle-Eastern origin. They have kept their culture alive, from their religious practices to the clothing they wear. They often speak in Arabic.

Does that make my building a Middle-Eastern target?

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Huntsman
This, from someone who uses 30 second sound bites as their primary source :rolleyes:

As I stated before, I'm done here, especially considering that Luci can't even confine her/his/itself to addressing the main points.

This from someone who uses what Iraqi prisoners of war as a primary source for what most Iraqi's think of the invading west.:rolleyes: They are so **** scared they will probably say whatever you want / expect them to say. Idiot.

"done"? Over-done is more like it.

[CFLarsen]

Lucianarchy,

For the 6th time:

Regarding this new prediction of yours that will happen on August 4th 2004:


What "living systems" "consciously involved" are you talking about?
What "participants" are "co-operative"?
Do you get predictions, yes or no?
Do these perceptions come through guided, structured meditation sessions, yes or no?


Please answer the questions. They are polite, reasonable, rational questions about a claim you have made.

[thaiboxerken]

Here is another prediction. Tomorrow, a brunette will make the headlines in a western newspaper.

[thaiboxerken]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


This from someone who uses what Iraqi prisoners of war as a primary source for what most Iraqi's think of the invading west.:rolleyes: They are so s**t scared they will probably say whatever you want / expect them to say. Idiot.

"done"? Over-done is more like it.

I don't know what posts you've been reading, but Huntsman has stated that he has talked to more than Iraqi POW's. He's talked to Iraqi citizens and civilians. You are the idiot.

[Hellbound]

Thanks, thai.

In fact, the vast majority of my conversations were with civillians in the towns we were operating in.

And the prisoners (not all were war prisoners, some were civil prisoners we were holding at the request of the local leaders until they could be turned over to civillian authorities) were hardly scared. Some were, yes, but we had many that wanted to get captured again (because they were given clean water, food, and medicines, and generally treated well).

In addition, there are many other sources of inrormation out there, my opinions are not based soley on personal experience. Schools have been rebuilt and are being restocked, political prisoners from Saddam's regime have been released, electrical generation is swiftly being restored, water purification is being implemented, food is more readily available, medicines are being provided and countless lives saved (and quality of life improved) by them (example, almost no insulin exists in Iraqi clinics...we provided it to clinics in the area we covered), sanitatry facilities are being built and saniation instruction is being given (many clinics dispose of medical waste by dumping it outside on the street; we saw many Iraqi children poking each other with discarded syringes). This is a just a few off the top of my head things I can mention. While some of the die-hard politicals that had it good during Saddam's reign are against us, at least an equal number are glad we went in and are pleased with our changes. They do want to rule themselves (and I do not fault them), but that's different from claiming they don't want us there at all.

[CFLarsen]

Huntsman,

My cousin's husband has been stationed in Basra. He is a very experienced UN soldier. His views reflects yours.

[rppa]

I'm new here, so I don't know the history of different posters. I came across the first post in this thread and I thought "OK, this is a joke, a parody of a cold-reading." Only after reading the first few posts did I realize this was supposed to be a real prediction.

Lucian says the vagueness is subjective. Here's a clue: If you could open a random newspaper from a random city on a random date and find an article describing "something awful happening to a Western target", then the prediction is vague. And you could.

Let me clarify for our poor psychic: Your prediction is so vague that you can find an event that fits in ANY newspaper from ANY major city on ANY date. OK? That's vague.

Don't believe me? Wait... the spirits are speaking. Something awful happened once to a Western target. The spirits tell me they will speak through three separate people to prove their power. If one person gives me a year (from say 1995 on), one gives a month, and one gives a day, I predict something awful happened on that exact day and I will pull up a newspaper clipping to prove it.

But there's more: The spirits tell me something awful will be reported in the Washington Post tomorrow! In the Metro section! Now, if that's not specific, what is?

[Sloe_Bohemian]

Originally posted by rppa

Don't believe me? Wait... the spirits are speaking. Something awful happened once to a Western target. The spirits tell me they will speak through three separate people to prove their power. If one person gives me a year (from say 1995 on), one gives a month, and one gives a day, I predict something awful happened on that exact day and I will pull up a newspaper clipping to prove it.


OK, I'll bite....
the year is 1985.

So now you're waiting on two more people to provide months and days.

[Hellbound]

SEPTEMBER!!!!!!

[Lisa Simpson]

27th.

[Ed]

I posted the following to myself on 7/11/01:

In mid September a tragedy will befall New York City. The reprecussions of this tragedy will take a generation to pass. I see fire and destruction. I see planes crashing into buildings.

I also told my wife and he will swear to the truth of it. I opened the letter to myself in her presence on 9/12/01.

It was a horrible, wrenching experience for me and it has convinced me of the truth that there is "something" beyond us that wishes to communicate. The sceptic will say that this is not true but I am willing to produce my evidence, take a lie detector test and swear to it's truth to the peril of my immortal soul if I lie. I am a successful businessman and well repected in my community; I have no reason to lie and open myself to mockery.

Your doubts say more about you than about my experience. I have nothing but pity for you.

[rppa]

Originally posted by Sloe_Bohemian


OK, I'll bite....
the year is 1985.

So now you're waiting on two more people to provide months and days.

Well, I said "from 1995 on" but I'm fairly sure that 1985 is included in the online index (which was my concern).

The spirits have guided the audience to September 27, 1985. I find the following from the Washington Post archives:

Hurricane Gloria struck the east coast.

Reporter David Ottoway reports that the Iran-Iraq war has taken a serious turn for U.S. interests, as noncombatant oil tankers are being attacked.

Gun battles erupted as two different groups of Sudanese soldiers mutinied.

Three bombs explode in South Africa.

--------------
Whichever of those resonates most with you as fitting the spiritual prediction must have been the one they were talking about. The spirits are never wrong!

[Ed]

Excellent. Not a good as my 9/11 scam... uhhhh prediction, but good.

[Lisa Simpson]

Originally posted by rppa



The spirits have guided the audience to September 27, 1985. I find the following from the Washington Post archives:

Hurricane Gloria struck the east coast.

Whichever of those resonates most with you as fitting the spiritual prediction must have been the one they were talking about. The spirits are never wrong!

Gasp! The call from the spirit world must have been my late mother-in-law. Her name was Gloria <cue eerie music>

[Timble]

I keep reading the title of this thread as 'Prediction 24 August 2004'

Is this a premonition, will something awful happen on that date, is this supernatural....paranormal...? *Cue music from the X-files*


or may be it means that I need to get the prescription on my reading glasses checked.

[rppa]

I admit I'm being deliberately clumsy at the game, but I can't figure out Ed's scam -- er-- superpower. He is obviously the real thing.

OK, I said that something awful would appear in the Washington Post today. And not only today, but I predicted that it would be printed in the Metro section. Let's just check that...

Well, sadly, the story is about more deaths in Iraq. I don't want to make light of this, but here it is:
Michael M. Carey told his high school guidance counselor in Prince George County, Va., that all he wanted to be was a U.S. Marine. He was living his dream when he died Tuesday in Iraq. He was 20. The Department of Defense said Carey died after he fell into a canal and did not resurface. His body was recovered that day.

The Pentagon also announced yesterday the death in Baghdad of another soldier from the Washington region: Army Pfc. Leslie D. Jackson of Richmond.

At 18, Jackson is believed to be the youngest soldier from this region to die in Iraq. A truck driver for the 1st Cavalry Division, she was killed Thursday when her vehicle hit a roadside bomb, the Pentagon said.

Now, how did I do this? How did I know it would be in Metro? I don't even live in Washington or see a Washington Post on a regular basis.

A skeptical nonbeliever like my wife might point out that I *did* live in Washington for 17 years, and that for virtually every morning of those 17 years we had a conversation that went something like this:

Me: Oh, this is terrible.
Her: What?
Me: This story in the Metro section.
Her: There are three or four terrible things in the Metro section every day. You just get depressed when you read it. Why do you keep reading it?
Me: I like to stay up on the local... oh no, this is really terrible.
Her: (Throws toast).

But you true believers know the Real Truth.

[Ed]

Originally posted by Timble
I keep reading the title of this thread as 'Prediction 24 August 2004'

Is this a premonition, will something awful happen on that date, is this supernatural....paranormal...? *Cue music from Dragnet*





Illegal?



Edit to add: In the interest of accuracy I changed the music from "X-Files" to "Dragnet" in the direct quote above.

[Timble]

Originally posted by Ed


Illegal?

Edit to add: In the interest of accuracy I changed the music from "X-Files" to "Dragnet" in the direct quote above.

No, I'm perfectly capable of being vague and dippy without smoking the 'funny' cigarettes. ;)

[Ceinwyn]

Ladybrook.

:D

[thaiboxerken]

Originally posted by thaiboxerken
Here is another prediction. Tomorrow, a brunette will make the headlines in a western newspaper.

And here it is, my prediction came true.

http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/05/22/journalists.subpoena/index.html

Eat my shorts, Luci.

[Scoobmaster]

I predict that on August 4 2004 I will be another year older! :)

P.S. Go back and pick another day - don't tarnish my birthday! It is bad enough that the Terminator films picked August 4 for their Skynet doomsday!

[thaiboxerken]

Maybe it's your birthday that Luci's prediction was about. Does Luci have a grudge against you, besides the one he has against all skepticism and rationality?

[charva_gj]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


Only you know if your feelings are predictions or not.

There is no "fullifment". I have already said that the perceptions are often vague, it is the fact that significant repeated correlations occur over time that warrant the recording. To juts have one correlation is perhaps lucky. But I have been able to do this over many occaisions. If you were to record yours for times, feelings and descriptions, you would perhaps be able to see if there was a pattern over chance.

By your own admission, your prediction for February 14th was vague. Given that, why now are you so sure that your prediction referred to the Police HQ attack in Falluja, and not some other terrorist attack that was planned, but averted (and not publicised)? You do not seem to consider this possibility.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by charva_gj


By your own admission, your prediction for February 14th was vague. Given that, why now are you so sure that your prediction referred to the Police HQ attack in Falluja, and not some other terrorist attack that was planned, but averted (and not publicised)? You do not seem to consider this possibility.

Thanks for your comments, Charva.

The correlation was significant. Not very, granted. But it was never the less, significant.

'ladybrook' was 100% significant.

Other significance includes the 'Alexius' session at the Fortean Times and the other FT tests. My experient with the Edinburgh U. Psych.Dept / Koestler was very significant.

The overall pattern is highly significant.

[thaiboxerken]

How do you account for my "Brunette" prediction, Luci? Am i psychic too?

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by thaiboxerken
How do you account for my "Brunette" prediction, Luci? Am i psychic too?

No. You, are a cretin.

[thaiboxerken]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


No. You, are a cretin.

But I made a prediction before the event. Exactly how am I a cretin? Can you explain the difference between my predictions and yours?

[glee]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I percieve that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).

1. I think it is a good thing that believers in paranormal powers try to prove their case.

2. I think (as many have already remarked) that the above is too vague to be of any value.
You need to define your terms, otherwise after the event you can claim practically anything as a 'hit'.

'something awful' :
- I gather you now say this will involve at least 100 deaths. Does that mean that 99 deaths will be a failure?

'that day' :
- as you know there are many timezones across the world. Do you mean that wherever the attack occurs, it will be the above day using local time?

'an attack' :
- does this mean there will be only one incident? If two (or more) bombs go off, will you add all casualties together?
- does this mean a terrorist attack? if bank robbers and police open fire in a crowded street, and there are further casualties from cars crashing, is that an 'attack'?

'a Western target (UK, USA, Europe))' :
- as has been pointed out, the UK is in Europe.
- the UK administers e.g. the Falkland Islands, Belize and Bermuda. Will all those places count as 'Western'?
- Australia, Canada and many other places are part of the Commonwealth, and owe alliegence to the Queen of England. Will all those places count as 'Western'?
- the UK has embassies all over the world. Will all those places count as 'Western'?
- Israel enters (and has won) the Eurovision song contest. Will it count as 'Western'?
- the UK has SAS soldiers working in various Gulf States. Will all those places count as 'Western'?

I haven't bothered to list all the countries where US, UK or European soldiers are currently stationed. Will all those places count as 'Western'?

Otherwise your prediction seems to be that any number of violent deaths in almost any part of the World will happen sometime when it is August 4 somewhere in the World.

[Lucianarchy]

I understand, Glee, but I can only provide what I percieve.

In case you missed it, I have already stated the following earlier on in the thread:

The 'awful' aspect of the perception seemed to project over 100 casualties (death or serious injury). I really hope I am wrong. But the perception was strong.

I accept you may see that as 'vague'. But attacks with over 100 casualties like that are not, thankfully, every day events.

[davidhorman]

But attacks with over 100 casualties like that are not, thankfully, every day events.

I've found six so far this year, which gives Luci a 0.04 probability of being right by chance, unless you're going out on a limb and saying it will be an attack, and not an accident/natural disaster. Can anyone find any others?

251 pilgrims crushed in stampedes
More than 90 (close enough) killed in fires in China
320 killed by an exploding train in Iran
550 killed by an earthquake in Morocco
191 killed in Madrid bombings
150 killed by an exploding train in Korea

I think we're on day 147 or 148 of the year.

David

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by davidhorman


I've found six so far this year, which gives Luci a 0.04 probability of being right by chance, unless you're going out on a limb and saying it will be an attack, and not an accident/natural disaster.

David

How many 100 plus casualty attacks this year David? And yes, I have said the perception was of an attack, not a accident or anything. There was definately malicious intent involved.

[Pixel42]

In order for a prediction of a likely event to be meaningful it needs to be specific, e.g. "there will be a major earthquake this year" is no good because there's one most years; something like "there will be a major earthquake in Chile in November" is required.

If a much less likely event is being predicted, it doesn't need to be so specific to be impressive. For instance, the ghastly events of Sept 11th 2001 were a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for any genuine psychic to prove their gift beyond doubt, because that was an event that no amount of intelligent guesswork could ever have predicted. So a psychic would not have had to predict the exact date and place, just "there will be a terrorist attack this year in the US which will result in the deaths of thousands" would have been pretty convincing proof of genuine clairvoyance. Conversely, those psychics who claim to predict the major news events at the start of every year, and who predicted the usual earthquakes and stock market volatility for 2001 and failed to mention the events of 9/11, are clearly charlatans. That's all of them, I think?

Anyway, a prediction of a terrorist attack on a stated date which will kill at least 100 people is specific enough to mildly impress me, if it comes true. I will be watching the news on August 4th with particular interest.

[glee]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I understand, Glee, but I can only provide what I percieve.

In case you missed it, I have already stated the following earlier on in the thread:

I accept you may see that as 'vague'. But attacks with over 100 casualties like that are not, thankfully, every day events.

One of the key points is what your ability allows you to do. You need to state as much as possible before the event what constitutes a 'hit'. (Afterwards is not helpful.)

I accept that you are predicting over 100 casualties. You therefore agree that 99 would be a miss?

In case you missed it, what I consider 'vague' is, for example, your definition of 'a Western target'.
Is Belize 'a Western target'?
Is Australia 'a Western target'?
Is Israel 'a Western target'?

And thankfully attacks with over 100 casualties are not a daily occurrence. But they do happen. If one happens on Aug 3 (GMT), will you claim that as a hit? If Aug 3 (GMT) is Aug 4 (local time elsewhere), is that a hit?
If there is a rail crash in the UK, and there are unproven allegations of sabotage, is that a hit?

[Drooper]

Originally posted by glee


One of the key points is what your ability allows you to do. You need to state as much as possible before the event what constitutes a 'hit'. (Afterwards is not helpful.)

I accept that you are predicting over 100 casualties. You therefore agree that 99 would be a miss?

In case you missed it, what I consider 'vague' is, for example, your definition of 'a Western target'.
Is Belize 'a Western target'?
Is Australia 'a Western target'?
Is Israel 'a Western target'?

And thankfully attacks with over 100 casualties are not a daily occurrence. But they do happen. If one happens on Aug 3 (GMT), will you claim that as a hit? If Aug 3 (GMT) is Aug 4 (local time elsewhere), is that a hit?
If there is a rail crash in the UK, and there are unproven allegations of sabotage, is that a hit?


I beg to differ.

"casualties" is extremely vague.

Say it plainly Luci. 100 dead? 100 dead or injured? 100 dead, injured or emotionally effected (e.g. relative)?

vague, vague, wishy, washy.

[glee]

Originally posted by Drooper
"casualties" is extremely vague.

Say it plainly Luci. 100 dead? 100 dead or injured? 100 dead, injured or emotionally effected (e.g. relative)?

vague, vague, wishy, washy.

You're right to ask for a clear definition beforehand of 'casualties'.
Here it is:

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
The 'awful' aspect of the perception seemed to project over 100 casualties (death or serious injury).


So presumably nobody dead, but 100 people taken to hospital counts as a 'hit'.

I do worry about the use of the phrase '...the perception seemed to project...'.
If there are less than 100 casualties, then it seems to me that the prediction will still be claimed as a 'hit'.

[Drooper]

Originally posted by glee


You're right to ask for a clear definition beforehand of 'casualties'.
Here it is:



So presumably nobody dead, but 100 people taken to hospital counts as a 'hit'.

I do worry about the use of the phrase '...the perception seemed to project...'.
If there are less than 100 casualties, then it seems to me that the prediction will still be claimed as a 'hit'.

It's still provides loads of wriggle room to fit different events.

what does "serious" injuries mean??? At present it will mean anything Luci claims it means ex post.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by glee


One of the key points is what your ability allows you to do. You need to state as much as possible before the event what constitutes a 'hit'. (Afterwards is not helpful.)

I have not talked about 'hits', I talk about significance


I accept that you are predicting over 100 casualties. You therefore agree that 99 would be a miss?

It would decrease in self evident significance.

In case you missed it, what I consider 'vague' is, for example, your definition of 'a Western target'.
Is Belize 'a Western target'?
Is Australia 'a Western target'?
Is Israel 'a Western target'?

I perceive a Western target as one controlled / operated / symbolic of the Western forces of power - armed / industrial / social.

And thankfully attacks with over 100 casualties are not a daily occurrence. But they do happen. If one happens on Aug 3 (GMT), will you claim that as a hit? If Aug 3 (GMT) is Aug 4 (local time elsewhere), is that a hit?

You would have to decide whether the it was significant or not.

If there is a rail crash in the UK, and there are unproven allegations of sabotage, is that a hit?

It would only be significant if the allegations were proven and the attack was from terrorists and you thought the target could reasonably be described as above.

[glee]

Originally posted by glee
One of the key points is what your ability allows you to do. You need to state as much as possible before the event what constitutes a 'hit'. (Afterwards is not helpful.)


Originally posted by lucianarchy
I have not talked about 'hits', I talk about significance


OK, by all means use significance. But do please explain what you mean by it.

Originally posted by glee
I accept that you are predicting over 100 casualties. You therefore agree that 99 would be a miss?


Originally posted by lucianarchy
It would decrease in self evident significance.


Here for example I need clarification. You state that your prediction is for over 100 casualties. If there are only 99, are you going to say your prediction was:

- correct?
- pretty good?
- significant?
- reasonably significant?
- not very significant?
- insignificant?
- wrong?

Originally posted by glee
In case you missed it, what I consider 'vague' is, for example, your definition of 'a Western target'.
Is Belize 'a Western target'?
Is Australia 'a Western target'?
Is Israel 'a Western target'?


Originally posted by lucianarchy
I perceive a Western target as one controlled / operated / symbolic of the Western forces of power - armed / industrial / social.


Well that is a very vague definition.
What do you mean by 'Western'?
What do you mean by 'controlled / operated / symbolic of the Western forces of power'?

I have already asked you if Belize, the Falklands or Bermuda qualify under your definition. Please answer yes or no.
Since Israel receives billions of dollars annually from the US, I assume you include Israel and all territories under Israeli control in your definition. DO you agree?
Since McDonalds and Coca-Cola are clearly symbolic of the 'West', I assume an attack on such premises anywhere in the world comes under your definition.
Could you give an example of an attack that would not be significant to you. (Perhaps we could then find a link to the West...)

Originally posted by glee
And thankfully attacks with over 100 casualties are not a daily occurrence. But they do happen. If one happens on Aug 3 (GMT), will you claim that as a hit? If Aug 3 (GMT) is Aug 4 (local time elsewhere), is that a hit?


Originally posted by lucianarchy
You would have to decide whether the it was significant or not.


Are you going to claim it's significant?
How accurate is your prediction?

Originally posted by glee
If there is a rail crash in the UK, and there are unproven allegations of sabotage, is that a hit?


Originally posted by lucianarchy
It would only be significant if the allegations were proven and the attack was from terrorists and you thought the target could reasonably be described as above.


The problem I have with your prediction is knowing whether an incident is going to be claimed as significant.
I'm afraid it is not satisfactory for you to say after the event "oh, I think that target is reasonably significant."
Please specify clearly exactly what your prediction covers.

Here's an example of an exact prediction:

"the next two US Presidential elections will be won by a white, Christian, straight, rich male - who has previous experience as a Senator, Congressman or Governer. He will represent an established political party, and will run with a Vice-President who comes from a different background. The campaign will rely heavily on TV coverage."

[Lucianarchy]

Glee, you seem to miss the point. The significance needs to be self-evident. The 14th Feb was, to use your own language up there, for me, "reasonably significant".

[glee]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
Glee, you seem to miss the point. The significance needs to be self-evident. The 14th Feb was, to use your own language up there, for me, "reasonably significant".

I'm afraid you're definitely missing my point.

I want to know what you will consider 'significant'. (I don't know if your definition of 'self-evident' is the same as mine, or indeed any other poster.)
Take the number of casualties that you foresee.
Your 'prediction' says over 100. This is notable as one of only two clear points (the other being the date - though you haven't yet said if you're using GMT for that).
Please tell us what numbers will fall into these categories:

- correct?
- pretty good?
- significant?
- reasonably significant?
- not very significant?
- insignificant?
- wrong?

(For example, you could state:

- correct? 100+
- pretty good? 80-99
- significant? 60-79
- reasonably significant? 40-59
- not very significant? 20-39
- insignificant? 10-19
- wrong? less than 10)

I want to know what countries and targets are covered by your prediction.
Please state if, according to you, the following countries are 'a Western target as one controlled / operated / symbolic of the Western forces of power - armed / industrial / social':

Algeria
Australia
Belize
Bermuda
Canada
Cyprus
Falkland Islands
Hong Kong
Iraq
Israel
Oman
New Zealand
Philippines

Here is my 'prediction' again:

"the next two US Presidential elections will be won by a white, Christian, straight, rich male - who has previous experience as a Senator, Congressman or Governer. He will represent an established political party, and will run with a Vice-President who comes from a different background. The campaign will rely heavily on TV coverage."

What do you think of it?
Is it more detailed than yours?
Is it self-evident whether it happens?
(I don't live in the US, but I think this is an extremely good prediction.)

[Drooper]

You might as well give up. Luci is perfectly aware of the game he is playing.

Your time would be more productively spent trying to nail some jelly to the wall than trying to nail luci to specifics.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by glee


I'm afraid you're definitely missing my point.



No, not at all. I have given you both the perception and the example of finding significance for a self-evident result.

I do not have the time or inclination to go through every single example / possibility you care to cite. :rolleyes:

Make of the results what you will. It's not a problem for me.

[thaiboxerken]

Self-evident, in Luci's case, is defined as that which is evident, only to himself.

[glee]

Originally posted by Drooper
You might as well give up. Luci is perfectly aware of the game he is playing.

Your time would be more productively spent trying to nail some jelly to the wall than trying to nail luci to specifics.

Yes, of course you're right.
I did have hopes of a reasonable discussion when the prediction was first made.
But since Luci won't define where the 'target' is, how many 'casualties' would be 'significant', or even when it will happen...

[glee]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I have given you both the perception and the example of finding significance for a self-evident result.


I doubt even you understand what this means!
Is 99 casualties 'significant'?
If yes, then why does your prediction specify 100?

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I do not have the time or inclination to go through every single example / possibility you care to cite. :rolleyes:


And of course no-one asked you to.
What you actually mean is
"I am embarrassed by my own vagueness, so will not even answer one example."

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
Make of the results what you will. It's not a problem for me.

Well suppose that on Aug 3, 27 people in Belize go to hospital (mainly with shock) after an explosive device ruptures a gas pipe.
You will claim this is 'self-evidently' 'significant' and proves you can predict.
The rest of us will not accept it. (It won't be a problem for us!)

[alfaniner]

What are the specifications for proving this "prediction" did NOT happen?

In the Million Dollar Challenge, the claimant must describe what constitutes both a positive and negative result.


Many, many, many possibilities could be interpreted as a positive result (at least, by Luci).

What would constitute a negative result here?

[TheBoyPaj]

Luci's not entering the challenge. That way HE can make the rules of his little game.

By the way, Luci. What, exactly, do you claim to be able to do?

[Belgian thought]

This is the sound of silence - do bee do bee doo!

I perceive that on this forum it will contiune.

[Doctor X]

Man, I really thought the first post was suppose to be comic and ironic.

Wow.

--J.D.

[Timble]

Given LA's record on prophecy so far, August 4 should be the safest day of the year.

[Z]

Who cares about Luci? I just wanna see how many of my predictions come true.

[T'ai Chi]

Is anyone able to get more specific than: An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe)?

[Lothian]

Originally posted by T'ai Chi
Is anyone able to get more specific than: An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe)? Ooooo prediction poker. I will see your

An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe)

and raise to

An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe) excluding Liechtenstein.:p

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by glee
Well suppose that on Aug 3, 27 people in Belize go to hospital (mainly with shock) after an explosive device ruptures a gas pipe.
You will claim this is 'self-evidently' 'significant' and proves you can predict.

He will. He has done it before.

Originally posted by glee
The rest of us will not accept it. (It won't be a problem for us!)

I'm not so sure that it won't be a problem. Don't forget that he tried to give the impression that he had been tested by the JREF and the Fortean Times - and succeeded! Don't forget that the false story gets the headline, but the correction gets the bottom of page 39.

That's what Lucianarchy is banking on.

[Ersby]

Originally posted by T'ai Chi
Is anyone able to get more specific than: An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe)?

On the 20th February I made this prediction (on the FTMB http://www.forteantimes.com/forum/showthread.php?threadid=13511&perpage=15&pagenumber=19 )

“I see a structure, a building, this is an urban environment. There are people here, people in the buildings. The people seemed to be focused on one thing: I can hear taking a shouting. I can smell burning. There’s a booming or roaring sound. Very loud. And a source of light or heat. A great deal of movement, a lot of energy. There’s something, a metal structure, up high.”

This came "true" with an earthquake in North Africa.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/3515803.stm

Despite the high accuracy rate, Lucian called it "vague", although he admitted that "Ersby does indeed often provide good examples for controls, if you ever read the JREF board, look up his 'psychic dice' stuff". Of course, this was when he was on his best behaviour with his new friends.

[TheBoyPaj]

Ersby also got a hit in the latest round of my book test (http://clarion.no-ip.org/books.php). The man's on fire! ;)

[LostAngeles]

I can clarify Lucian's prediction.

Many years ago, I swore to take over the world by age 24. August 4th, 2004 with be the final day of being 24 for me. Therefore, my master plans must come to fruition.

Thankfully, both genetic experiments were a success. I will be unleashing Whitey(a.k.a. The Man) on August 3rd. If the world does not give in, the plan is to unleash the Michael Moore-Ann Coulter harpy spawn.

The world will not bow to the The Man.

You're all doomed.

[TheBoyPaj]

That's odd. I made a similar vow to "stick it to the Man" on August the 5th. It seems your reign will be short-lived.

[T'ai Chi]

I'll go out on a limb and say something will happen in Iraq?

;)

[RabbiSatan]

I'm so excited!!

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by RabbiSatan
I'm so excited!!
I just can't hide it!

[thaiboxerken]

No matter what happens, wherever it is in the world, Luci will claim victory and call this another "RV" win.

Something bad will happen on August 4th, big deal. What would be more impressive is if Luci predicted a day where nothing bad happened in the world to anyone anywhere.

[RabbiSatan]

Will Lucianarchy pull through? Will he finally develope an intellect? Will something so ambigously open to interpretation horrible occur on August 4th? Will Lucy finally cough up that long awaited evidence of psi?

Stay tuned folks! It's only a week away! :D

[Gr8wight]

Originally posted by Lothian
I thought everyone knew.

Luci is Claus's sock puppet.


I haven't been here very long, and I don't really know anybody, but I've followed enough of the discourse on these boards that that comment made me laugh out loud.

[RabbiSatan]

To save Luci the effort of wiggling, I'll provide some news items that fall into luci's ambiguous catagory.

Woman dies after Alligator Attack (http://www.cnn.com/2004/US/South/07/26/alligator.death.ap/index.html)

Yup - it's an attack on a "Western" target alright. The vibes are strong from this one.

[Doubt]

Counter prediction for August 4, 2004:

I perceive that something good will occur that day. An postive action or event at a Western "target" (UK, USA, Europe).

Should not take too much to find one or more events that will make my prediction true. I wonder how many bad events we can find for Luci.

Being vague is such a great way to liberate ones self from responsibility and honesty.

[Gastric ReFlux]

I'm curious, since we're getting closer to August 4, has the threadstarter been able to focus more on the perception that something awful will happen against Western interests? Or do I misapprehend the process? I'm just guessing that like if I walk closer to someting, I can see it better and in more detail that there might be a similar effect regarding paranormal perception.

Thanks, and I'll also gladly hear of any strong perceptions regarding upcoming Powerball drawings.

[Chemical_Penguin]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
I understand, but I can only provide what I percieve. The 'awful' aspect of the perception seemed to project over 100 casualties (death or serious injury). I really hope I am wrong. But the perception was strong.

Well it's narrowed down a bit, lucianarchy will have to google for an event that has around 100 deaths/casualties. Just as long as a celebrity doesn't die and he/she tries to say "Everyone that mourns the loss of [dead celeb's name] is considered a casualty in my heart"

[jj]

In Augustus's moon, three days after the first
Comes a wind, rain, and a flood!
Something will wash away, someone will suffer,
And the moon will shine in the sky!

[homer]

I predict that August 4th will be a Wednesday and will have 24 hours in it . I also predict that I will get stuck in traffic coming home from work that day , probabily due to the bombing of the Houses of Parliament by Anarchists at 3.53 pm . 73 fatalities will be reported . Is that precise enough ?
It occurs to me that if this actually happens then Special Branch will be paying me a visit . I predict that my paranormal powers will prevent this from happening .

[RabbiSatan]

Day of violence claims at least 114 lives (http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/07/28/iraq.main/index.html)

Hhhmm...lots of death, we're getting closeerr.

Btw luci - does Iraq count as a western target anymore?

[Sloe_Bohemian]

C'mon Luci... let us know what's happening?
Have there been any changes to your prediction... is it clearer now... aren't you as excited as the rest of us?

I'll be sure to let all your adoring fans at Mia Dolan's forum know how well you do... although, would you believe that a bunch of "believers" don't seem concerned with their own safety? I've told them about your warning and they don't really care. I don't think they really put much stock in this whole "prediction" racket... they just seem to like patting each other on the back.

[bluess]

Originally posted by Cleopatra
Why you give up so easily on me Lucianarchy? Is it because you think that I do not deserve some of your time to explain to me certain things? Also this is not the only question I asked you.

Someone may have pointed this out later on (I'm reading as fast as I can!)...

Cleo, I think the issue is since you have studied some of these subjects (based on readings of your other posts) Luci can't use the same hand-waving and buzzwords to blow off yor posts. Of all the people, if Luci truly believes as he/she/it represents, he/she/it should be responding to you as you are the most likely person on this forum to help validate.

Luci's unwillingness to address your very respectful questions just shows that he/she/it is invested in a position come hell or high water.

[Ed]

I'm sorta sure that this was asked but:

What constitutes Aug. 4? Isn't it Aug 4 for 48 hours somewhere? Is it Greenwich? Or is it one of those predictions where anything around Aug 4 is "close enough"?

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by RabbiSatan
Btw luci - does Iraq count as a western target anymore?

Anything can be interpreted as a "western target". If it has a CocaCola vending machine, it is a "western target".

That's the beauty of it: Lucianarchy cannot be wrong.

[troy jones]

Originally posted by Ed
I'm sorta sure that this was asked but:

What constitutes Aug. 4? Isn't it Aug 4 for 48 hours somewhere? Is it Greenwich? Or is it one of those predictions where anything around Aug 4 is "close enough"?
He isn't going to clarify of course. If something happens on Aug. 4 GMT it looks like a very specific hit. If something happens in the period of Aug. 3-5, it is still within serveral hours of being spot-on, and probably close enough to be considered a hit by woo-woo standards. If something just happens that week, it can still be deemed "significant".

Similarly, since the U.S. (and Europe) has interests and does business all around the globe, there is virtually no part of the world that could not be construed as "western" in some sense. Again, if something happens in the U.S. or Europe, it looks like he made a specific prediction in advance. If something terrible happens in Outer Mongolia, well then he can just blow some smoke about the westernizing influence of global trade or American imperialism or foreign aid or somesuch, and still paint it as a hit. The "western" Fallujah police HQ incident is an example of this.

His later statement that it would be a result of "malicious intent" may appear specific also but it's no better really. If there are no terrorist attacks that week anywhere in the world, a natural disaster could always be ascribed to the maliciously negligent actions of multinational corporations whose pollution supposedly cause disasters indirectly by damaging the environment. Or perhaps he will lay it at the feet of Project HAARP controlling the weather or something--part of the Great American Imperialist Conspiracy[TM]. Malicious intent is just as broad (and useless) as the other parts of his prediction.

Obviously it would be "better", from his perspective, if over 100 people were killed in a single incident in the geographical U.S. or Europe on Aug. 4th GMT as a result of a deliberate, malicious act. The possibility exists that that could happen of course (though the odds are against it IMO) in which case he might be able to leverage this "prediction" into a book deal, TV appearances, etc, depending on how entertaining he is.

And if Aug. 4 comes and goes, well, he can always claim some mudslide in Chile in the early morning hours of Aug. 5th that left almost 100 villagers homeless as a fulfillment of his prophecy. That's good enough to convince himself, if no one else, and he can always try again a few months down the road to make another "prediction" that will propel him into the Big Time.

[RabbiSatan]

Da-da-bump!

Three killed in Uzbekistan blasts (http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/07/30/uzbek.blasts/index.html)

Yup, more attacks on "Western" targets alright :rolleyes:

Your recent flame war and crusade against Claus wouldn't have anything to do with diverting attention from your prediction......would it?

[Ed]

Just want to keep this near the top.

Don't know about you guys but 8/4 is all planned out for me.

http://images.amazon.com/images/P/B00006RCMQ.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg

[JPK]

Seems like a sad day in Iraq today. Many explosions. But the really sad news for the Iraqis is that It will get worse in a few days if Luci is correct.
JPK

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by JPK
Seems like a sad day in Iraq today. Many explosions. But the really sad news for the Iraqis is that It will get worse in a few days if Luci is correct.

That anyone can use the news that people have been blown apart by bombs to boost their own imagined psychic powers, is - quite frankly - sickening.

It never ceases to amaze me just how low some people will go to put themselves in the limelight.

[JPK]

Do you think the White House is listening to Luci? :)

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The federal government warned Sunday of possible terrorist attacks against "iconic" financial institutions in New York City, Washington and Newark, N.J., saying a confluence of intelligence over the weekend pointed to a car or truck bomb.

JPK

[Lisa Simpson]

Originally posted by JPK
Do you think the White House is listening to Luci?



JPK

If the White House is listening to Luci, we are in big, big trouble.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by JPK
Do you think the White House is listening to Luci?

No. I don't think anyone is listening to Lucianarchy. After all these years of desperately trying to promote himself as a star in the paranormal world, he has gotten exactly nowhere. He is nothing but a sad character, who would deserve our pity, if it wasn't for his mean and fraudulous behavior.

He is completely marginalized in every community he has ever entered. He can't seem to make it anywhere. He cannot command any support for his claims, not even in the wackiest parts of the world of superstition.

That says a lot.

[Ed]

Originally posted by JPK
Seems like a sad day in Iraq today. Many explosions. But the really sad news for the Iraqis is that It will get worse in a few days if Luci is correct.
JPK

Anyone who has been following events is aware that it is going to get worse in Iraq. It is like predicting that gravity is down.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by Ed
Anyone who has been following events is aware that it is going to get worse in Iraq. It is like predicting that gravity is down.

When I had the perception, I said quite clearly that I really hoped that nothing would happen that day. I was asked by some here to record them when I got them. I realise now, that only serves those who want to riducule and be nasty.

[RabbiSatan]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
When I had the perception, I said quite clearly that I really hoped that nothing would happen that day. I was asked by some here to record them when I got them. I realise now, that only serves those who want to riducule and be nasty.

So........is something going to happen or not? Please, stop being vague and elaborate on what you saw.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
When I had the perception, I said quite clearly that I really hoped that nothing would happen that day. I was asked by some here to record them when I got them. I realise now, that only serves those who want to riducule and be nasty.

But "hope" has nothing to do with this, does it? You either get a premonition that comes true - or you don't. This idea of yours that people - me, in particular, it seems - can thwart an upcoming event is nothing but a cop-out. That way, you can always claim that you were either right, or that the baaaaaaaaad skeptics ruined the whole thing.

Tell me something: Just how many people do you recon actually believe that you have paranormal powers? Can you give an estimate? 1? 10? 100? 1000? 10,000? 100,000? A million?

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by RabbiSatan
So........is something going to happen or not? Please, stop being vague and elaborate on what you saw.

Please have the courtesy to at least find out about my perceptions before demanding things I don't claim to do. All I know, is what I have said. I do not get PsiNN newsflashes with mindvideo and time-travelling reporters, I pick up perceptions and strong feelings associated with simple words or dates. These happen during meditation sessions, and are 'instant' complete packages of information, which tend to fade out in intensity with time.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
Please have the courtesy to at least find out about my perceptions before demanding things I don't claim to do. All I know, is what I have said. I do not get PsiNN newsflashes with mindvideo and time-travelling reporters, I pick up perceptions and strong feelings associated with simple words or dates. These happen during meditation sessions, and are 'instant' complete packages of information, which tend to fade out in intensity with time.

But this contradicts what you (after the fact) claim to be able to do: Predict specific events, at a specific time.

Why is it so impossible for you to stick to the truth?

[JPK]

Now if these things that happened today. 8/01/04, all happened on 8/4/04 I assume Luci would be claiming victory. But lets say that on 8/4/04 the world has it's first peacefull day ever, will Luci claim to have only been of by a few hours?"

JPK

[CFLarsen]

Dozens die in Paraguay shop fire

A huge fire has swept through a shopping centre in Paraguay's capital, Asuncion, killing dozens of people.
Police say more than 50 died in the blaze which started at midday local time when the centre was packed, and some reports speak of over 100 dead.

Firefighters are still bringing bodies out of the burnt debris at the site on the outskirts of the city.
Source (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3526436.stm)

Is this a candidate for your "prediction, Lucianarchy? Just yes or no.

Answer, if you have an inkling of humanity left in you.

[Lucianarchy]

Originally posted by JPK
Now if these things that happened today. 8/01/04, all happened on 8/4/04 I assume Luci would be claiming victory. But lets say that on 8/4/04 the world has it's first peacefull day ever, will Luci claim to have only been of by a few hours?"

JPK

No. There will be no judging, it will be self-evident, either way.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
No. There will be no judging, it will be self-evident, either way.

This is in direct violation with what you have preciously claimed. You have, in the past, posted extremely vague predictions, and the, after-the-fact, tried to claim that you really predicted a specific event.

Do you really think you will persuade anyone this way?

[Anders]

Wednsday is probaly a very quite day in Irak. Accoding to some militay man on CNN, the terroristic people plan their attacks in the Mosques during the Saturday services. And implementing them on sunday, hence the large activity today in Irak. The number of attacks should be decreasing during the week.

But we'll see, Oh, Lucis predictions: I make better prediction, my grandmother make better predictions than that. "Attack on western target", wow! c'mon, we want specific places, time, number of dead...

[TheBoyPaj]

I prefer something along these lines:

http://www.pagetworld.plus.com/luci.jpg

[Lucianarchy]

:dl:

Good one, Paj!

[Operaider]

I have not posted in a while and find this conversation very interesting. So I figured I better post before time runs out.

Now, Lucianarchy. It is obvious that many people have doubts about your prediction. Mostly due to vagueness. I think that if you could answer some of the following questions it will help clear some things up. I read that you do not respond to rudeness, so I am trying to be as polite as possible. If you detect any sarcasm it is not what I intended, and you have my apologies in advance.

Prediction - August 4th 2004
I perceive that something awful will occur that day. An attack on a Western target (UK, USA, Europe).
[list=1]
Could you please give me a description of a day in which your prediction for August 4th did not come true? By this I mean, if your prediction were to not come true, for whatever reason, how could we know?

Some would say that a "western target" could describe an area targeted by the west. Could you please verify that this is not what you mean by "western target", so we can eliminate that as a possibility.

Will it be August 4th in that area of the world at the time of attack? Can you please verify that you do not mean that it will just be August 4th somewhere in the world at the time of attack? Some have already suggested this as a possible loophole.

You have said that the event will be self-evident. By this do you mean that once it happens we will have no way of doubting that it is the event you predicted? If people do not think it fits with what you predicted, will it then not be considered "self evident", and hence an incorrect prophecy?

You said it would be an "attack". Could you please give your definition of attack? Can we eliminate natural disasters? Can we safely assume that it will be an intentional attack, and not an accident caused by man? Example: would you consider a disaster similar to the spill caused by the Exxon Valdez an attack?

You said that there will be “over 100 casualties (death or serious injury)�. Can we safely assume that none of the “serious injuries� you describe will be emotional injury, and that all of the injured will have physical injury? Can we assume the injuries predicted will be serious enough that those people will be listed among the injured after the attack? Many minor injuries will not make the news, I assume none of these will be counted as the seriously injured you predicted. [/list=1]

I appreciate your time, and thank you in advance for any clarifications you might bring forth. As I’ve said, I meant no disrespect with any of these questions. I’m just trying to eliminate some of the vagueness others have complained about. Likewise, I mean no disrespect with the following prediction. It is only meant as a sort of devils advocate. The prediction is…

“There will be an attack on a Western target on August 3rd or August 5th that will be greater than any attack made on August 4th in terms of casualties and injuries.�

[Aussie Thinker]

Luci has it COMPLETELY covered…

As he/she sits at home “praying� fervently for a disastrous attack on Wednesday he ponders the irony of wishing for all that death just to make his out and out guess come true !

But then he thinks .. hmmm.. if it doesn’t happen it was only BECAUSE I predicted it..

He will claim purely by making the prediction KNOWN he created enough “negative� (or is it positive) PSI to avert the event.

You can’t win with these nutters

1. They make an INCREDIBLY vague prediction
2. That will claim anything remotely resembling their prediction validates it
3. When NOTHING resembles the prediction they claim “negative� Psi or some such ********.

We all cannot wait for Luci’s prediction to be shown as another piece of balderdash but don’t for ONE second think it will change his/her mind about his/her “powers� !

[CFLarsen]

You forgot this one:

4. They will lie about it, too.

[The Mighty Thor]

As the date grows nearer it occurs to me that if, Ed forbid, something akin to 9/11 should happen on the predicted date, our Lunianarchy will no doubt be getting a visit from some real MIB who tend not to have a sense of psirony, and who will be asking some very serious questions of him and looking into his anarchy-prone personal lifestyle very closely. :(

[richardm]

Let's call the FBI, just to be on the safe side. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3526486.stm)

[Ed]

Originally posted by The Mighty Thor
As the date grows nearer it occurs to me that if, Ed forbid, something akin to 9/11 should happen on the predicted date, our Lunianarchy will no doubt be getting a visit from some real MIB who tend not to have a sense of psirony, and who will be asking some very serious questions of him and looking into his anarchy-prone personal lifestyle very closely. :(

I suspect that the MIB could teach a thing or two about orifice probing to the aliens.

I noted this in the Telegraph today:

At 11.11am on Wednesday, in front of one of the most select groups of old soldiers in the world, a piper will play a lament for those who cannot join them. August 4 marks the 90th anniversary of the day on which Britain declared war on Germany and embarked on four years of slaughter.

Of all obnoxious possibilities for a bombing this one strike me as particularly obnoxious. Lot's of Royals, MP's, and others will be there I wager. Sounds a bit like the venue in Day of the Jackal.

[BPSCG]

Luci, I asked you this before, so please answer, before August 4.

I live near the Pentagon and work in downtown Washington DC.

Are my wife and I in danger?

I'll make it easy for you; pick one:

A) Yes
B) No
C) Don't know.

If I don't see an answer by 8:00 am U.S. eastern time on August 3, I'll assume the answer is C and that your prediction is worthless.

Again, put up or shut up.