bvw12
6th June 2004, 02:17 PM
I was talking to a neighbor awhile ago – he happens to be a research scientist – and I mentioned how frustrated I was with always having to fill the water trays on the radiators, because the water kept evaporating so fast. He said he’d heard people had that problem – though he never experienced it himself, as he had central heating – but it sounded like a goofy notion, so he set up an experiment and observed trays of water, and found that they never evaporated. I was astonished, and said that was ridiculous.
‘no,’ he said, ‘not really – I run into this sort of thing all the time: there are lots of anecdotal stories about this thing or that thing, but when you set up a rigorous scientific study to see what’s going on, in turns out that nobody can ever demonstrate the process.’
‘this is stupid,’ I said. ‘What do you mean, the water never evaporates?’
‘just what I said,’ he said.
‘maybe you didn’t wait long enough,’ I said.
‘what is long enough?’ he replied.
‘well that depends,’ I said, ‘on how much water you start out with, how much water is exposed on the surface, the temperature in the room, the moisture already in the air ….’
‘hold on!’ my friend demanded. ‘just give me a straight answer without all this hedging: what is “long enough.” That was you’re statement, that I had to wait ‘long enough,’ now just tell me how long that is, give me a definite number, something that will work every time.’
‘this is ridiculous,’ I said, ‘i’m not wasting any more time on this with you – you know, everyone knows evaporation occurs, so why bother talking about it.’
‘you may be convinced it occurs, but you have to be able to show it,’ my friend responded. ‘in my trials, btw, I’ve even gone out of my way to be extra fair to you guys, for example, just to be sure no water spills out of your trays, I’ve covered your trays and sealed them against leaks.’
‘hmmm?’ I said, eyebrows araising a bit.
‘that’s right. And I left the placebo controlled group of trays uncovered, which should certainly give you the advantage.’
‘ummm,’ I said, ‘in that situation, I’d actually be surprised if evaporation even performed as well as placebo!’
my friend laughed uproariously. ‘you just don’t understand placebo, do you?’ he asked sarcastically.
‘on the contrary,’ I responded, ‘you don’t seem to understand evaporation.’
‘doesn’t matter,’ he said with an air of finality. ‘I don’t need to understand something to be able to measure it.’
And he walked away, enshrouded with an aura of triumph.
meanwhile, i finished cleaning up my golf clubs. i had a match against tiger woods set up, and i was really quite confident i'd beat him: a 30 stroke handicap for me, and a 10 pound lead weight attached to each of his hands. he was verum, i was placebo, and the bookies were voting for me! :p
*************************************************
You know, you guys are in the unenviable position of presiding over the greatest debacle in the history of modern science. Although I wouldn’t want to be the goat, as you guys are, at least you’re contributing the basis for an important new understanding in scientific experimental research: that it is not merely reliability with which we should be concerned, but also credibility. Both are required, before heuristic value can be attributed to your outcomes. Your discipline is more exacting than you realize.
‘no,’ he said, ‘not really – I run into this sort of thing all the time: there are lots of anecdotal stories about this thing or that thing, but when you set up a rigorous scientific study to see what’s going on, in turns out that nobody can ever demonstrate the process.’
‘this is stupid,’ I said. ‘What do you mean, the water never evaporates?’
‘just what I said,’ he said.
‘maybe you didn’t wait long enough,’ I said.
‘what is long enough?’ he replied.
‘well that depends,’ I said, ‘on how much water you start out with, how much water is exposed on the surface, the temperature in the room, the moisture already in the air ….’
‘hold on!’ my friend demanded. ‘just give me a straight answer without all this hedging: what is “long enough.” That was you’re statement, that I had to wait ‘long enough,’ now just tell me how long that is, give me a definite number, something that will work every time.’
‘this is ridiculous,’ I said, ‘i’m not wasting any more time on this with you – you know, everyone knows evaporation occurs, so why bother talking about it.’
‘you may be convinced it occurs, but you have to be able to show it,’ my friend responded. ‘in my trials, btw, I’ve even gone out of my way to be extra fair to you guys, for example, just to be sure no water spills out of your trays, I’ve covered your trays and sealed them against leaks.’
‘hmmm?’ I said, eyebrows araising a bit.
‘that’s right. And I left the placebo controlled group of trays uncovered, which should certainly give you the advantage.’
‘ummm,’ I said, ‘in that situation, I’d actually be surprised if evaporation even performed as well as placebo!’
my friend laughed uproariously. ‘you just don’t understand placebo, do you?’ he asked sarcastically.
‘on the contrary,’ I responded, ‘you don’t seem to understand evaporation.’
‘doesn’t matter,’ he said with an air of finality. ‘I don’t need to understand something to be able to measure it.’
And he walked away, enshrouded with an aura of triumph.
meanwhile, i finished cleaning up my golf clubs. i had a match against tiger woods set up, and i was really quite confident i'd beat him: a 30 stroke handicap for me, and a 10 pound lead weight attached to each of his hands. he was verum, i was placebo, and the bookies were voting for me! :p
*************************************************
You know, you guys are in the unenviable position of presiding over the greatest debacle in the history of modern science. Although I wouldn’t want to be the goat, as you guys are, at least you’re contributing the basis for an important new understanding in scientific experimental research: that it is not merely reliability with which we should be concerned, but also credibility. Both are required, before heuristic value can be attributed to your outcomes. Your discipline is more exacting than you realize.