BillHoyt
30th June 2004, 04:31 AM
This thread is meant to be a diary of an ongoing investigation. One skeptic, who is told some very scary things by a friend. The friend had attended a series of seminars on security and terrorism. I'll call them "Brave New World." These were professional seminars, but clearly with an agenda to push the attendees to self-protective action. Did this agenda distort the facts? Was truth twisted to make a case?
This will be the story of one skeptic's journey to separate fact from fiction.
Day 1: A friend returns from a professional seminar. I'll call it "Brave New World." Topics all revolved around the issues of how to keep towns, cities, companies and all their people safe from security threats. One particular workshop, however, frightened the pimikens out of her. It was lead by an epidemiologist from Texas. I'll call him "Tex"
"Tex" talked about bioterrorism and the future threats about diseases and coming epidemics. According to my friend, Tex said:
o West Nile virus was going to become a significant North American threat
o SARS is incubating in both Canada and the U.S. Northwest, and will soon cause epidemics with high mortality rates.
o Fortunately, flu vaccination will prevent SARS deaths, though not SARS infection.
o Bubonic plague can be carried by squirrels, many of whom are infected now. It can be passed by squirrel bites. The threat of bubonic plague will soon increase in both U.S. cities and small towns.
These are some of the claims I remember from our conversation. I had no idea what to make of them, but I offered her a cross-check with some of my contacts. She offered to send me copies of the Tex handouts.
Day 2: I get the copies of the Tex handouts. I now have his name, position and credentials. There is every reason to trust Tex so far, because his background seems suited to the material he was discussing.
Now I need to go through the printed claims, one by one, and sort them out from both my untrustworthy recollections of what she told me and her untrustworthy recollections of what Tex said. I'm at a disadvantage here, because I don't have a recording of what Tex said, just his handouts. So I have to go by what Tex wrote. Fair enough, though, because now I'm working with first-hand Tex material. The next step is to speak with one of my contacts at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). He's an epidemiologist.
This will be the story of one skeptic's journey to separate fact from fiction.
Day 1: A friend returns from a professional seminar. I'll call it "Brave New World." Topics all revolved around the issues of how to keep towns, cities, companies and all their people safe from security threats. One particular workshop, however, frightened the pimikens out of her. It was lead by an epidemiologist from Texas. I'll call him "Tex"
"Tex" talked about bioterrorism and the future threats about diseases and coming epidemics. According to my friend, Tex said:
o West Nile virus was going to become a significant North American threat
o SARS is incubating in both Canada and the U.S. Northwest, and will soon cause epidemics with high mortality rates.
o Fortunately, flu vaccination will prevent SARS deaths, though not SARS infection.
o Bubonic plague can be carried by squirrels, many of whom are infected now. It can be passed by squirrel bites. The threat of bubonic plague will soon increase in both U.S. cities and small towns.
These are some of the claims I remember from our conversation. I had no idea what to make of them, but I offered her a cross-check with some of my contacts. She offered to send me copies of the Tex handouts.
Day 2: I get the copies of the Tex handouts. I now have his name, position and credentials. There is every reason to trust Tex so far, because his background seems suited to the material he was discussing.
Now I need to go through the printed claims, one by one, and sort them out from both my untrustworthy recollections of what she told me and her untrustworthy recollections of what Tex said. I'm at a disadvantage here, because I don't have a recording of what Tex said, just his handouts. So I have to go by what Tex wrote. Fair enough, though, because now I'm working with first-hand Tex material. The next step is to speak with one of my contacts at the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). He's an epidemiologist.