October 21, 2004

[Lucianarchy]

OK, given the 100% specific 'ladybrook prediction accuracy', 'the remarkable Fortean Times / JREF experiments', the prediction of the Falluja police station attack and the remarkable 4thAug 2004 prediction over which the international intell community enforced unprecedented controls during the window in order to sucessfully thwart the attack they now admit was planned, we now have the recent remarkable 'reverse' prediction of Sept 19th.

For this reason 21st October 2004 is a prediction window which will not be commented on specifically until the prediction date has passed and scientific review and analysis can be conducted by those with sufficient expertise and knowledge in these matters.

POSTED ON BEHALF OF THE JREF: The claim by Lucianarchy to have been involved in “remarkable …. JREF experiments' is not true. Lucianarchy has never been involved in any experiment conducted by the JREF or, as far as we are aware, on behalf of the JREF.�

[RabbiSatan]

zzzz....

[Ashles]

Just when you think you've seen it all....

Were you IMPRESSED by the highly controversial and not at all convincing LADYBROOK prediction?

Did you GASP WITH AWE at the remarkable self defeating AUGUST 4th INVERSE PREDICTION?

Were you rendered SPEECHLESS WITH SHOCK at the TOTALLY INORRECT IN EVERY CONCEIVABLE WAY SEPT 19th prediction?

Now we bring you....

drum roll...

The amazing I'M NOT EVEN GOING TO PREDICT ANYTHNG UNTIL AFTER THE DATE HAS PASSED PREDICTION.




Thank you Luci. I was worried a few people were taking you seriously up until now. But thankfully you've made your joke a little too obvious.

[T'ai Chi]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
OK, given the 100% specific 'ladybrook prediction accuracy', 'the remarkable Fortean Times / JREF experiments', the prediction of the Falluja police station attack and the remarkable 4thAug 2004 prediction over which the international intell community enforced unprecedented controls during the window in order to sucessfully thwart the attack they now admit was planned, we now have the recent remarkable 'reverse' prediction of Sept 19th.

For this reason 21st October 2004 is a prediction window which will not be commented on specifically until the prediction date has passed and scientific review and analysis can be conducted by those with sufficient expertise and knowledge in these matters.

Go ahead, shoot your arrow then draw your bullseye around it.

[Dragonrock]

So, any guesses as to which skeptic has their hand up Luci's sock?

[apoger]

For this reason 21st October 2004 is a prediction window which will not be commented on specifically until the prediction date has passed and scientific review and analysis can be conducted by those with sufficient expertise and knowledge in these matters.

So now you are predicting that you will make a prediction after the time has passed?

I predict much ridicule.

[Lothian]

Well, I would like to thank everyone for taking part in the Luci prediction game. I am pleased to confirm that Interesting Ian was nearest when he said Luci’s next date would be 20 October 2004. Well done Ian only one day out !

If, as per the competition rules, Ian can ‘quote’ this post before 28th September I will happily send him the prize money.


Edited to add,

For those interested Luci was second with 17 October.

[Ed]

I for one am awed.

Luci has predicted my BIRTHDAY!!!

[Psiload]

The term is postdiction, Luci. An ex post facto prediction is a postdiction.

[Psi Baba]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
we now have the recent remarkable 'reverse' prediction of Sept 19th.
What the hell is this supposed to mean? Would you care to explain exactly what happened on the 19th of September? I don't want to see anything about what didn't happen, what was supposed to happen, or what was prevented from happening. PLEASE STATE WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED ON THAT DATE!

[thaiboxerken]

"Reverse" prediction?! WTF is that? Does that mean when you are wrong, you are right? I didn't know reverse psychology worked on the actual fabrics of reality and time itself. You really are INSANE Lucianarchy, seek help before you do yourself or others harm.

[CFLarsen]

Here we go again...

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
OK, given the 100% specific 'ladybrook prediction accuracy'

That is not correct. You were not correct in predicting an attack at Ladybrook. You posted a word, quite frequently found on the Internet, without any indication that it was a prediction. No attack happened.

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
'the remarkable Fortean Times / JREF experiments

They were remarkable only in showing what a lying cheat you are. There never were any involvement from either the Fortean Times or JREF. You failed utterly in predicting anything. You tortured your guesses into making them fit, even resorting to outright lies.

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
the prediction of the Falluja police station attack

You did not predict the Falluja police station attack.

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
and the remarkable 4thAug 2004 prediction over which the international intell community enforced unprecedented controls during the window in order to sucessfully thwart the attack they now admit was planned

It was remarkable only in documenting your utter insanity. You predicted an attack, nothing happened, so you claim that you were right, because it was thwarted.

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
we now have the recent remarkable 'reverse' prediction of Sept 19th.

Ahaha. Funny. Now, you twist it into being a "reverse" prediction. You want to claim that you predicted that nothing would happen. That is, of course, a lie.

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
For this reason 21st October 2004 is a prediction window which will not be commented on specifically until the prediction date has passed and scientific review and analysis can be conducted by those with sufficient expertise and knowledge in these matters.

So, no specific prediction whatsoever. Looking back on this list of "predictions", it becomes obvious that they are increasingly vague, to the point where no prediction is now made.

You will come back and claim that your hidden prediction came true.

Fool. (http://www.dudeluci.com/1201HMdlpic.jpg)

[Dragonrock]

Come on people! Luci can not be for real. No one in the history of the universe is that bullheaded.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Dragonrock
Come on people! Luci can not be for real. No one in the history of the universe is that bullheaded.

Oh, he is very much for real.

[Lothian]

Oh come on. Don't confuse Luci being a creduloid with having no sense of humour.

This thread is clearly Luci taking the mick out of her own failure.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Lothian
Oh come on. Don't confuse Luci being a creduloid with having no sense of humour.

This thread is clearly Luci taking the mick out of her own failure.

Taking the what??

[Lothian]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Taking the what?? Take the Mick, the mickey, make fun of, pulling your leg.

I wasn't sure if I could say 'taking the piss' so went for the tamer version. I guess I will soon find out if I can say taking the piss.

[Ashles]

The remarkable Fortean Times/Jref experiment. Hmm.. I've just had a look over there.

Would this be the one about which a Fortean Times forum regular said:

It also ought to be said that LA was most certainly not tested by 'The Fortean Times'. Rather, he participated in an improvised online experiment concocted by members of the message board. As very well he knows.

To parade his performance here as in some way edifying is sad enough - but to claim to have been validated by the magazine (if he has in fact made that claim) is just charlantry.

As Hugo put it, oh curious browsers from other boards (and welcome, by the way ), his performance was something less than Geller


"Something less than Geller"... another one for Luci's sig.

[Cthulhu]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
[

For this reason 21st October 2004 is a prediction window which will not be commented on specifically until the prediction date has passed and scientific review and analysis can be conducted by those with sufficient expertise and knowledge in these matters. [/B]

Bwhahahahahahahahah.....

thats one of the funniest things I have read today! Thanks!

If I didn't know better, I would say someone is experimenting with the JREF forums.

[Dragonrock]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Oh, he is very much for real.

Sorry, I'm skeptical, prove it.

:)

[Marian]

Clown Shoes

[Operaider]

Operaider 9/20/2004 9:01am - Is anyone else surprised that Luci hasn't relied on the ol' "reverse psychic" excuse yet? I think if anyone could make a case for it, it would be her.

I'm probably going to regret mentioning that.

Larsen, make a note of this post. A month from know when she starts using that as an excuse, I want it known that it was my idea first.Luci 9/20/2004 10:08am - OK, given the 100% specific 'ladybrook prediction accuracy', 'the remarkable Fortean Times / JREF experiments', the prediction of the Falluja police station attack and the remarkable 4thAug 2004 prediction over which the international intell community enforced unprecedented controls during the window in order to sucessfully thwart the attack they now admit was planned, we now have the recent remarkable 'reverse' prediction of Sept 19th.

For this reason 21st October 2004 is a prediction window which will not be commented on specifically until the prediction date has passed and scientific review and analysis can be conducted by those with sufficient expertise and knowledge in these matters.Does anyone think Randi might give me the prize money based on my amazing ability to predict Luci's excuses? I was also correct in predicting that I would regret bringing that possible excuse to Luci's attention.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Operaider
Does anyone think Randi might give me the prize money based on my amazing ability to predict Luci's excuses? I was also correct in predicting that I would regret bringing that possible excuse to Luci's attention.

Sorry, but that is not a paranormal ability. It is a given... :)

[teddosan]

Hi. Long time listner to the Luci threads; first time poster... I used to think Luci was for real. And, by "for real" I sure as hell don't mean "has some real ability"; just I thought he/she was seriously trying to predict something. After the "unprecedented security prevented my predicted attack" post I started to question... Is Luci just jerking everyone off? After this post, I am positive of it.
CFLarson, I like you man... But... I think you're wrong about this one... I know you think he/she truly believes (or it's actually your sockpuppet; which would be funny as hell). But there's just no way that someone could get this ridiculous with the "predictions" and expect to try to prove anything to us. Luci is just trying to see how far he/she can push us. It's either someone's sock puppet or just someone doing a "how much can I piss these guys off" experiment...

[LostAngeles]

Lucian, send me the prediction.

I hearby swear not to reveal or comment on any of its contents until the date rolls over from October 21, 2004 to October 22, 2004.

This way, you won't have people claiming you retrofitted your prediction to the day's actual events.

I have no affiliation with CFLarsen, Randi, or the ilk, nor do I have any affiliation with the "woos".

[Temp3st]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy


For this reason 21st October 2004 is a prediction window which will not be commented on specifically until the prediction date has passed and scientific review and analysis can be conducted by those with sufficient expertise and knowledge in these matters. [/B]

Please don't comment on it.
We are not interested.
You are an idiot and a fool.

You really should try reading your posts before clicking that 'submit' button.

Do you know the UK definition for 'tosser' by the way?

[Ashles]

CFLarson, I like you man... But... I think you're wrong about this one... I know you think he/she truly believes (or it's actually your sockpuppet; which would be funny as hell). But there's just no way that someone could get this ridiculous with the "predictions" and expect to try to prove anything to us. Luci is just trying to see how far he/she can push us. It's either someone's sock puppet or just someone doing a "how much can I piss these guys off" experiment...
Ted's right. I don't care how many posts Luci has on this, or any other forum. It's a joke.

Let's see (I've been meaning to say this for a while):

Take
Lucianarchy
remove the cia, the r, and the h

What do you have?

[Mojo]

Originally posted by Psi Baba
What the hell is this supposed to mean? Would you care to explain exactly what happened on the 19th of September? I don't want to see anything about what didn't happen, what was supposed to happen, or what was prevented from happening. PLEASE STATE WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED ON THAT DATE!

As far as I can make out, Lucianarchy didn't actually predict anything for September 19th; the "prediction" was:
Originally posted by Lunacy
I have percieved 19th September as another high risk window for similar attacks and hope and pray that the intelligence agancies agian act to thwart such an attack.
What, exactly, is this predicting?

Incidentally, and I'm sorry if this has been posted before, but has anyone else noticed that Lucianarchy's avatar looks suspiciously like a load of balls?

[BKITU]

Originally posted by Mojo
As far as I can make out, Lucianarchy didn't actually predict anything for September 19th; the "prediction" was:

I have percieved 19th September as another high risk window for similar attacks and hope and pray that the intelligence agancies agian act to thwart such an attack.

What, exactly, is this predicting?


He predicted that either there would be an attack, or that there wouldn't. So, in essence: A or ~A = T

As a child I occasionally joked that the chance of rain on any given day is 50% -- either it will rain or not. The difference between LA and myself here is that 1) I was a child, and 2) I was joking.

[Operaider]

Originally posted by Mojo
As far as I can make out, Lucianarchy didn't actually predict anything for September 19th; [snip] What, exactly, is this predicting? apparently he predicted just a little more information in his last one than he would have liked. With his new prediction he has eliminated all possible information except the date. The only way his October 21st prediction can fail is if the world ends on October 20th. Though, with Luci history of failed predictions, that might not be out of the question.
Incidentally, and I'm sorry if this has been posted before, but has anyone else noticed that Lucianarchy's avatar looks suspiciously like a load of balls? Well, you'd have to have some big ones to continue to make predictions after such dismal failures. :eek::eek:

[Ratman_tf]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
OK, given the 100% specific 'ladybrook prediction accuracy'.

You are a deluded person. How anyone can post one word and call it a prediction would astound me if I wasn't already aquainted with your very pathetic trick.

This October thing will be as much of a sham, I betcha.

[steenkh]

Originally posted by Ratman_tf
This October thing will be as much of a sham, I betcha.
Now, in this case Luci has not even bothered to offer a prediction before the event so he can hardly fail, but even so, if he continues to produce predictions, he simply cannot fail to get one right eventually.

I predict that on september 30, a car bomb will explode in Iraq. If this fails (very slim chance of that, but the security forces might surprise us by doing a tremendous job to prevent it), I can predict the same for October 3, and so on.

It is a pity that Luci so exploits the sorry situation of our times. It would have been much more sympathetic if he issued a claim for Randi's million that he could win three national lotteries in a row. First he would grab the lottery money, and then he would relieve JREF of its raison d'etre, and we would all be speechless.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by teddosan
CFLarson, I like you man... But... I think you're wrong about this one... I know you think he/she truly believes (or it's actually your sockpuppet; which would be funny as hell). But there's just no way that someone could get this ridiculous with the "predictions" and expect to try to prove anything to us. Luci is just trying to see how far he/she can push us. It's either someone's sock puppet or just someone doing a "how much can I piss these guys off" experiment...

Originally posted by Ashles
Ted's right. I don't care how many posts Luci has on this, or any other forum. It's a joke.

Pardon me, guys. No malice intended, but I've been "at" Lucianarchy for a couple of years now, and there is nothing in his behavior that makes me believe he is in it for the laugh.

I know a bit more about Lucianarchy that you do.

[Dragonrock]

Originally posted by Dragonrock
Sorry, I'm skeptical, prove it.

:)

Sorry Larsen, I just have to repeat myself.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Dragonrock
Sorry Larsen, I just have to repeat myself.

Sorry, missed it. :)

In time. The more I dig, the worse it looks. This is going way beyond a mere stupid Usenet posting.

[Ratman_tf]

Originally posted by steenkh
Now, in this case Luci has not even bothered to offer a prediction before the event so he can hardly fail, but even so, if he continues to produce predictions, he simply cannot fail to get one right eventually.

Ladybrook was one word.

One

Freakin

Word.

It wasn't even a sentence, much less a prediction.

[teddosan]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Pardon me, guys. No malice intended, but I've been "at" Lucianarchy for a couple of years now, and there is nothing in his behavior that makes me believe he is in it for the laugh.

I know a bit more about Lucianarchy that you do.

Yeah, I'll give you that... I know you have way more history with Luci.
And, I did some investigating. I looked up some of Luci's posts on other forums. Those posts are just as goofy... He actually went into the Court TV forum just to berate the randi.org people who joined over there. That doesn't fit with the whole "sockpuppet" theory...
I just can't believe how totally ridiculous the claims have become... It's unfathomable that there really is someone out there making claims like this who could actually believe his own outlandish blatherings. Anyways, apparently there is...
BTW, I think this has been discussed before, but is Luci a male or a female? Just curious...

[thaiboxerken]

Lucianarchy wa baka desu!! Dansei desu.

[CFLarsen]

Lucianarchy is male.

[Archangel]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
[B]Here we go again...



That is not correct. You were not correct in predicting an attack at Ladybrook. You posted a word, quite frequently found on the Internet, without any indication that it was a prediction. No attack happened.

Not that Luci has actually successfully predicted anything IMO, but since when is Ladybrook a commonly found word on the internet?

There were a whole 2710 hits on google, and the bulk of those were from the town(s) website(s).

Originally posted by thaiboxerken
Lucianarchy wa baka desu!! Dansei desu.

oh and since when are personal insults allowed on the forums?

Unless Ken gets a free ride because he is towing the party line?

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Archangel
Not that Luci has actually successfully predicted anything IMO, but since when is Ladybrook a commonly found word on the internet?

I didn't say "commonly found". I said "quite frequently".

Originally posted by Archangel
There were a whole 2710 hits on google, and the bulk of those were from the town(s) website(s).

So? Nobody said anything about who mentioned the word. It is still a heck of a lot more references than a nearby town of mine has.

A hit is a hit.

Originally posted by Archangel
oh and since when are personal insults allowed on the forums?

Unless Ken gets a free ride because he is towing the party line?

I wasn't aware of such a rule.

Be civil and polite.

The JREF wishes civility be the norm and will endeavor to ensure that civility will be the norm, however this does not mean that Members will be insulated from all insults or challenges; the nature of the forum inevitably involves strong emotions and opinions which can result in heated exchanges. The JREF also wishes the forum to be accessible to as many people as possible and will endeavor to ensure that the content in the Forum is suitable for a mature audience.
From Forum Rules (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?s=&threadid=42936)

Lucianarchy has also been rude. "Free ride" also.

[Archangel]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
I didn't say "commonly found". I said "quite frequently".

Are you really trying to claim that "quite frequently" /= "commonly found"

if so maybe you should tell us which Dictionary you are using:

Entry: commonly
Function: adverb
Definition: usually
Synonyms: frequently, generally, ordinarily, regularly
Antonyms: rarely, seldom, uncommonly, unusually
Source: Roget's New Millenniumâ„¢ Thesaurus, First Edition (v 1.0.5)
Copyright © 2004 by Lexico Publishing Group, LLC. All rights reserved.
Cite (http://thesaurus.reference.com/search?q=frequently)

Or are you playing the same games that you accuse Lucian of?


So? Nobody said anything about who mentioned the word. It is still a heck of a lot more references than a nearby town of mine has.


Prove it, you are making a claim here lets see the evidence.


A hit is a hit.

*Devils advocate*
Unless your name is John Edward, Sylvia Brown, et al.
*/devils advocate*


I wasn't aware of such a rule.
Lucianarchy has also been rude. "Free ride" also.
Ok I'll admit, I mis-remembered the rules, however since when is it "Be(ing) civil and polite" calling someone an Idiot? as Ken has done?.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Archangel
Are you really trying to claim that "quite frequently" /= "commonly found"

As I understand it - and used it in that meaning, "quite frequently" is not as often as "commonly found". Ants are commonly found, but I can quite frequently spot a fox in the woods.

Originally posted by Archangel
Prove it, you are making a claim here lets see the evidence.

Røgerup. Town close to where I live. 69 Google hits.

Originally posted by Archangel
*Devils advocate*
Unless your name is John Edward, Sylvia Brown, et al.
*/devils advocate*

We are talking Google hits, not cold-reading hits. Google hits are unambiguous.

Originally posted by Archangel
Ok I'll admit, I mis-remembered the rules, however since when is it "Be(ing) civil and polite" calling someone an Idiot? as Ken has done?.

Rules are interpreted and enforced by the moderators/administrators. You are free to report him, if you want. Just also remember to report Lucianarchy. Or people might think you are giving him a free ride.

[teddosan]

Rules are interpreted and enforced by the moderators/administrators. You are free to report him, if you want.

I doubt that the mods can speak Japanese... Anyways, the nuance of "baka" is really not that mean...

[Archangel]

Originally posted by CFLarsen & teddosan
Rules are interpreted and enforced by the moderators/administrators. You are free to report him, if you want.

I doubt that the mods can speak Japanese... Anyways, the nuance of "baka" is really not that mean...
Claus:
I'm not going to report anyone, as I have already stated I misremembered which forums rules I was thinking of, however even if I hadn't I wouldnt have reported either, I was just disgusted at the things that Ken gets away with.
I have now used the option at my disposal and put him on ignore, where he can join InterestingIan (who rarely is the former).

Teddosan:
I'm a bit rusty on my Japanese but isnt what he said something along the lines of "Luci you stupid child/student?".


As I understand it - and used it in that meaning, "quite frequently" is not as often as "commonly found". Ants are commonly found, but I can quite frequently spot a fox in the woods
Again this is semantics IMO however I'll agree to disagree.


Røgerup. Town close to where I live. 69 Google hits.

I got 120 with the non-special character, and Ill agree that this is very few.
To put this in perspective however:
Population
Denmark: 5.3Million
Cite (http://www.dst.dk/HomeUK/Statistics/Key_indicators/Population/pop.aspx)

UK: 60.2Million
Cite (http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/uk.html)

Therefore for the sake of the argument we can either divide the total of the UK population by Denmarks which gives us a figure of
11.3584 dividing the total hits for Ladybrook by this number, to give an approximate population simularity*.
so
2710/11.3584 = 239 hits (rounded up)

so is this still "quite frequently"?


*I realise this doesnt take into account population density v internet connectivity, which has a huge factor on google hits

[LTC8K6]

LA only put the single word "labybrook" at the end of a post. No mention of any prediction at all. Just the misspelled word.

This is LA's actual "prediction".

The psi effect works only through co-operation, that is why Randi has the "Out" in his challenge, a challenge is not co-operation. ladybrook

LA claims that an event near a place called "ladybrooke" with an e, is a hit. There is a bit of question about the spelling.

Here is the event, which didn't really happen at ladybrooke. The bus was merely driven through ladybrooke estate.

Two masked gunmen left a sports bag containing a large incendiary device on a bus on the Stewartstown Road at about 1630 BST on Saturday.

They ordered the driver to take it through the nearby Ladybrooke estate, over speed ramps, and park it outside Woodbourne police station.

The driver stopped the bus at the junction of the Stewartstown Road and Black's Road while police closed the road and evacuated nearby houses.

Army bomb experts carried out a controlled explosion on the device during the alert, which lasted for about four hours.


Here is another similar "prediction" from me. Shearon Harris

[Ed]

Originally posted by Archangel
Claus:
Therefore for the sake of the argument we can either divide the total of the UK population by Denmarks which gives us a figure of
11.3584 dividing the total hits for Ladybrook by this number, to give an approximate population simularity*.
so
2710/11.3584 = 239 hits (rounded up)

so is this still "quite frequently"?


*I realise this doesnt take into account population density v internet connectivity, which has a huge factor on google hits

Well, cconider this:

Ladybrooke=260+ hits
Ladybrook=300+hit
Lady Brook=330,000 + hits

Luci is intrinsically dishonest when it comes to counting a "hit". Do you doubt, even for a second, that any of these would have been scored as an amazing proof of Luci's paranormal abilities?

[Jaggy Bunnet]

Originally posted by Archangel
Therefore for the sake of the argument we can either divide the total of the UK population by Denmarks which gives us a figure of
11.3584 dividing the total hits for Ladybrook by this number, to give an approximate population simularity*.
so
2710/11.3584 = 239 hits (rounded up)

so is this still "quite frequently"?


*I realise this doesnt take into account population density v internet connectivity, which has a huge factor on google hits

I see no reason whatsoever why you should adjust for population size. The claim was that there were a lot more google references for Lunacy's alleged prediction than there were for a town near where he lived. There was no reference to "relative to population" in the claim, therefore it is incorrect to include it in considering the evidence of whether the claim is true or not.

And on an aside, Lunacy's "prediction" was ladybrook and the claimed hit ladybrooke. Allowing for an error of one character, the number of possible hits is vastly increased, e.g.:

ladybrook 2,680 hits
ladybrooke 241 hits
lady brook 322,000 hits

Believe me - any of the above (and no doubt many more remote variants) would count as a hit for Lunacy so must be included in considering the probability.

[Soapy Sam]

I predict---

That 21st October 2004........WILL BE......

The 199th anniversary of the Battle of Trafalgar.


I'm sure this has COSMIC SIGNIFICANCE,

which I shall look into after lunch.

[Lothian]

An someone please read Jaggy and Ed's posts and tell me there is not something parnormal going on

[Ed]

Originally posted by Lothian
An someone please read Jaggy and Ed's posts and tell me there is not something parnormal going on


Yes. But the mundane explination is that Jaggy is a noted, but crude, plagerist.

Most recently, he was found out when "his" book "Parry Hotter and the Goblet of Fear" was released one day after Rowling's work of similar name. A bit of a giveaway was similar artwork on the cover. Unfortunately for him, most dealers displayed the books side by side so it was the work of only a few months before the coppers realized something was amiss.

I note that he has brought this reprehensible behavior here.

:D

[Lothian]

Originally posted by Ed
Yes. But the mundane explination is that Jaggy is a noted, but crude, plagerist.
Not only is he a plagerist but he copied you as well :eek:

[Jaggy Bunnet]

Originally posted by Ed
Yes. But the mundane explination is that Jaggy is a noted, but crude, plagerist.

Most recently, he was found out when "his" book "Parry Hotter and the Goblet of Fear" was released one day after Rowling's work of similar name. A bit of a giveaway was similar artwork on the cover. Unfortunately for him, most dealers displayed the books side by side so it was the work of only a few months before the coppers realized something was amiss.

I note that he has brought this reprehensible behavior here.

:D

Not at all.

Ed used his precognitive powers to pre-copy my post and try and claim it as his own.

Proof of this is that he had to guess at the true number of hits for each search (look how vague his figures are!) as I had not performed the searches at that point so he couldn't pre-view them (or something).:p

[Lothian]

Originally posted by Jaggy Bunnet
Not at all.

Ed used his precognitive powers to pre-copy my post and try and claim it as his own.

Proof of this is that he had to guess at the true number of hits for each search (look how vague his figures are!) as I had not performed the searches at that point so he couldn't pre-view them (or something).:p If you compare the figures for ladybrooke you had 241 hits Ed had 260+. lady brook you had 322,000 Ed had 330,000.

We all know the internet is getting bigger.

It follows that Ed's searches were after you and therefore his posting time must be considered suspect. Or he edited his post after the event but due to a quirk the system does not show that he edited it...... ummmm the connection to lady(space)brook(e) gets stronger.

[Archangel]

Originally posted by Ed
Well, cconider this:

Ladybrooke=260+ hits
Ladybrook=300+hit
Lady Brook=330,000 + hits

Luci is intrinsically dishonest when it comes to counting a "hit". Do you doubt, even for a second, that any of these would have been scored as an amazing proof of Luci's paranormal abilities?

Absolutely no doubt whatsoever that (s)he would.
I think that (s)he is either deluded or lying, however I also think that civility and honesty should be used in debunking these claims, as rudeness gets us nowhere (witness Claus' banning from the Fortean Times website), and an eloquent rebuttal is always more satisfying than resorting to name calling.
If he annoys you guys so much, why not just ignore him?


Originally posted by LTC8K6

LA only put the single word "labybrook" at the end of a post. No mention of any prediction at all. Just the misspelled word.

This is LA's actual "prediction".

I realise this, I read the original thread as it was happening, and Im shocked whenever its brought out as proof of Lucians Divine Powers.



I see no reason whatsoever why you should adjust for population size. The claim was that there were a lot more google references for Lunacy's alleged prediction than there were for a town near where he lived. There was no reference to "relative to population" in the claim, therefore it is incorrect to include it in considering the evidence of whether the claim is true or not.

Well if Im going to be totally honest, it was a quick way to back out of admitting I was wrong :D .
However, relative population/Internet Connectivity technically does play an important part IMO however is a tangent to the main point.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Archangel
Claus:
I'm not going to report anyone, as I have already stated I misremembered which forums rules I was thinking of, however even if I hadn't I wouldnt have reported either, I was just disgusted at the things that Ken gets away with.

You could compile a comparative list of what Ken has gotten away with, and what other posters have not gotten away with.

Originally posted by Archangel
I got 120 with the non-special character, and Ill agree that this is very few.

What's the "non-special" character?

Originally posted by Archangel
To put this in perspective however:
Population
Denmark: 5.3Million
Cite (http://www.dst.dk/HomeUK/Statistics/Key_indicators/Population/pop.aspx)

UK: 60.2Million
Cite (http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/uk.html)

Therefore for the sake of the argument we can either divide the total of the UK population by Denmarks which gives us a figure of
11.3584 dividing the total hits for Ladybrook by this number, to give an approximate population simularity*.
so
2710/11.3584 = 239 hits (rounded up)

so is this still "quite frequently"?

You can't compare like this. English is a far more wide-spread language than Danish, and is used outside the UK as well. In fact, it is the Internet language par excellence.

Originally posted by Archangel
*I realise this doesnt take into account population density v internet connectivity, which has a huge factor on google hits

Not just popularity density, but also language distribution.

Originally posted by Archangel
I think that (s)he is either deluded or lying, however I also think that civility and honesty should be used in debunking these claims, as rudeness gets us nowhere (witness Claus' banning from the Fortean Times website)

I wasn't banned from the FTMB. I was suspended. I can post there today.

[thaiboxerken]

Looks like Arch is another one of those "non-believing" believers. Out to defend Luci's position, while saying that he doesn't believe Luci's position. Fact is, Luci made no prediction about ladybrooke. Fact, no attack happened at ladybrooke.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by thaiboxerken
Fact is, Luci made no prediction about ladybrooke. Fact, no attack happened at ladybrooke.

Precisely. We should all remember that. All else is, effectively, hokum.

[Archangel]

Sorry about it taking so long to get back, but I had to rebuild my system and to be honest I had forgotten about the thread.

Originally posted by CFLarsen
You could compile a comparative list of what Ken has gotten away with, and what other posters have not gotten away with.

I could at that, but that would mean reading all of his messages again, and like I said he is now on my ignore (and Lucian is coming close)


What's the "non-special" character?

I counted the " ø " as a special character (its not used in English) therefore I replaced that with an "o"


You can't compare like this. English is a far more wide-spread language than Danish, and is used outside the UK as well. In fact, it is the Internet language par excellence.

Exactly English is far more wide-spread, and thus its likely that two words like "lady" and "brook" and any combination thereof would likely be more common than a Danish word.



Not just popularity density, but also language distribution.

Yep, but I didnt feel it valid enough to try and go into those statistics, but if we were to do that I would think that the 300k+ hits that Ed found would bring it back down to the same sort of distribution list.


I wasn't banned from the FTMB. I was suspended. I can post there today.
Ahh ok, I gave up on that whole saga way back and the last I had read was you were banned.


Originally posted by CFLarsen
[B] &
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by thaiboxerken
Fact is, Luci made no prediction about ladybrooke. Fact, no attack happened at ladybrooke.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Precisely. We should all remember that. All else is, effectively, hokum.


This makes a first, something Ken says that I actually agree with, a few more posts like this and I may have to remove him from Ignore.

I agree one word doesnt make a prediction, nor did anything happen there, the same as the prediction about Sept 17 and the August one didnt occur.

However I still think that civility should be used in debating (maybe thats because I was taught to debate in that manner) no matter how intellectually inferior you perceive your opponent to be.

*Edited to fix tags

[Ed]

Thanks guys. I set Luci up to post this just so everyone can remember my birthday and what do I get? Nada, zippo, nothing.

Comeon, Luci, let's take our ball and go home.

:(

[Anders]

Hey, its the 21:st! :j1:

So what does happen in the world so far according to CNN.com

Castro falls, over: Well that happened yesterday,;
Typhoon in Japan: Going on for some time;
Some World Series events: Again yesterday;

Soooo, so far Nothing, well, there are a few hours left on the 21:st in middle-east, about 9 hours.

[Stitch]

Well nobody has claimed it as the day Osama will be caught (http://www.randi.org/vbulletin/showthread.php?s=&threadid=45051) either. What a damp squib :(

[CFLarsen]

Happy birthday, Ed!

[Yaotl]

Happy Birthday Ed!

[El Greco]

What they said, Ed!

[uruk]

Well maybe Luci meant oct 21, in the U.S. it's still morning at the moment. but no Osama.
Wait! how common is the name Osama or bin lauden in Saudi Arabia? Mabe Luci heard wrong and it was Osama Ben loudin or some other person. Or may be he heard something like "Oh! Mama's been lardin' "or some sick horrible thing like that in the apartment next to him?

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Lucianarchy
OK, given the 100% specific 'ladybrook prediction accuracy', 'the remarkable Fortean Times / JREF experiments', the prediction of the Falluja police station attack and the remarkable 4thAug 2004 prediction over which the international intell community enforced unprecedented controls during the window in order to sucessfully thwart the attack they now admit was planned, we now have the recent remarkable 'reverse' prediction of Sept 19th.

For this reason 21st October 2004 is a prediction window which will not be commented on specifically until the prediction date has passed and scientific review and analysis can be conducted by those with sufficient expertise and knowledge in these matters.

POSTED ON BEHALF OF THE JREF: The claim by Lucianarchy to have been involved in “remarkable …. JREF experiments' is not true. Lucianarchy has never been involved in any experiment conducted by the JREF or, as far as we are aware, on behalf of the JREF.�

....ouch, Lucianarchy: You have now officially been labeled a liar....

[Dr Adequate]

So... going back to the original post... Lucianarchy has predicted that something will happen today. That's very impressive, but I can do better. Something will also happen tomorrow and the day after. Million me.

Have a good one, Ed.

[teddosan]

So did Luci ever give his "prediction" to Lost Angeles as requested? Or is he keeping it for himself so that tomorrow he can post "Aha! My prediction was (something from today's news) and it happened exactly as I predicted!"

Luci, if you didn't give the "prediction" to a third party, please do not submit your postdiction tomorrow and claim success. You certainly cannot expect anyone to believe you; especially now that JREF itself has called you out for being a liar...

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by teddosan
So did Luci ever give his "prediction" to Lost Angeles as requested? Or is he keeping it for himself so that tomorrow he can post "Aha! My prediction was (something from today's news) and it happened exactly as I predicted!"

Luci, if you didn't give the "prediction" to a third party, please do not submit your postdiction tomorrow and claim success. You certainly cannot expect anyone to believe you; especially now that JREF itself has called you out for being a liar...

The penny just dropped.

That's why he wanted to get banned! So he was "prevented" from explaining this failure away.

[Cthulhu]

Maybe he/she/it was predicting the fall of the New York Yankees? which technically happened on 10/21 NY local time......:D

[Anders]

Originally posted by uruk
Well maybe Luci meant oct 21, in the U.S. it's still morning at the moment. but no Osama.
Wait! how common is the name Osama or bin lauden in Saudi Arabia? Mabe Luci heard wrong and it was Osama Ben loudin or some other person. Or may be he heard something like "Oh! Mama's been lardin' "or some sick horrible thing like that in the apartment next to him?
No no no, Why do people believe that USA is in the middle of the world. Time zone is Middle east, nothing else. And time limit is coming to an end. I think in about 2 hours.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Cthulhu
Maybe he/she/it was predicting the fall of the New York Yankees? which technically happened on 10/21 NY local time......:D

No, that was a given.... :D (And I even used to live in NY....)

[CurtC]

Originally posted by Cthulhu
Maybe he/she/it was predicting the fall of the New York Yankees? which technically happened on 10/21 NY local time......:D Well, I think that happened at about 8:45pm on 10/20, when Damon hit the grand slam.

[Belgian thought]

All’s well at 20.50
Here in sleepy Kent
Poor Lucy has done it again
Another prediction gone astray.
Can’t sleep for another night
Sold my shares and all my rights
Because of his prediction.

It’s about time that
People brought on injunctions
Against liars, beggars and thieves
And those in the make believe.
Lucy give it a rest or give me your address
So that I can serve my writ
Against your bollock words at their best!

[Yaotl]

S/he has been banned from here, so s/he won't be responding. No sign of this prediction on his/her forum though. What a waste.

[Soapy Sam]

I just burned my toast.

Awesome.

[teddosan]

Why did Luci get banned? Which thread tells the story?

[Cthulhu]

Originally posted by CurtC
Well, I think that happened at about 8:45pm on 10/20, when Damon hit the grand slam.

Hmmm...good point...and what a beautiful slam it was.

[LostAngeles]

Originally posted by teddosan
So did Luci ever give his "prediction" to Lost Angeles as requested? Or is he keeping it for himself so that tomorrow he can post "Aha! My prediction was (something from today's news) and it happened exactly as I predicted!"

Luci, if you didn't give the "prediction" to a third party, please do not submit your postdiction tomorrow and claim success. You certainly cannot expect anyone to believe you; especially now that JREF itself has called you out for being a liar...

No, s/he never did. After Luci ignored my request, I essentially dropped out of this thread.

In all honesty, I had no real hope of ever recieving anything. I expected to be ignored or accused of being in Larsen's boat.

Thusly I made a correct prediction and therefore deserve the RandiMillion. Yes? Yes? Aww...

Then again, Luci might have predicted my sprained ankle. Except the actual injury was on Monday and was diagnosed yesterday. Maybe a horrible accident with the crutches? ...*gasp*!

Geez... what an irresponsible psychic. I mean, not stopping terror attacks, not warning a person on potential horrible accidents. Yeesh!

Tsk, tsk, :rolleyes: .

[Kopji]

Best prediction ever: Luci predicted his own banning. :clap:

[Yaotl]

Originally posted by Kopji
Best prediction ever: Luci predicted his own banning. :clap:

That happened on the 19th though ;)

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by Yaotl
That happened on the 19th though ;)

Since when has Lucianarchy been discouraged by something like the wrong date? ;)

[Yaotl]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Since when has Lucianarchy been discouraged by something like the wrong date? ;)

Damn universe for being too quick! :D

I could have sworn Luci put it on his/her forum though.

[kaisersean]

By the way- Lucianarchy has moved to a new location, where he is apparently continuing his long-running tradition of making an idiot of himself. He's at SciFi's Proof Positive show bulletin board.

http://mboard.scifi.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=176625&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1#176625

I happened to run into the name over there, and recognized it immediately. Already, he's citing his "amazing" ladybrooke prediction. I am not amused.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by kaisersean
By the way- Lucianarchy has moved to a new location, where he is apparently continuing his long-running tradition of making an idiot of himself. He's at SciFi's Proof Positive show bulletin board.

http://mboard.scifi.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=176625&page=0&view=collapsed&sb=5&o=&fpart=1#176625

I happened to run into the name over there, and recognized it immediately. Already, he's citing his "amazing" ladybrooke prediction. I am not amused.

His false claims there have been rebutted.

[Kopji]

That happened on the 19th though

Yeah ok. But he used the word "window" of the 21st. I interpreted that to mean the 19th through the 23rd. :rolleyes:

He had a certain charisma though, I will miss him. Not everyone can make prediction after prediction that never happens, and yet have us all reading his posts as if they actually meant something.

O well, I'm sure another will come along. (A prediction?)