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Silicon
6th January 2005, 12:54 PM
(Note: I'm using the word skeptic here not to denote Skeptics as we call ourselves. I'm using the title that the author uses, to describe political advocates supporting the chemical industry's contention that CFC's weren't a problem.)



Fascinating history study here:

Skeptics have routinely called global warming "a hoax", and attacked the credibility of scientists promoting the idea. Are the skeptics right? To shed light on the issue, it is helpful to review how the same skeptics treated the ozone hole issue.


I'm not saying that all skepticsm about global warming being due primarily to human causes is unfounded. Just that I found illuminating this survey of the history of the Ozone hole issue. Whether the global warming skeptics are right or wrong, they seem to be using the same tactics.

Of course, environmentalists have ALSO used some of these same tactics, so caveat emptor.




First, some history. in 1974 chemists at UC Irvine published a study predicting that CFC use would cause depletion of the ozone layer. The ozone hole theory was not confirmed until scientists discovered it in 1985. This silenced the critics. But in the years between 74 and 85, we have a history of the tactics used to distort the science and explain away the threat that turned out to be real, and actually not too hard to solve.


Techniques of the Skeptics:

Launch a public relations campaign disputing the evidence.
DuPont, which made 1/4 of the world's CFCs, spent millions of dollars running full-page newspaper advertisements defending CFCs in 1975, claiming there was no proof that CFCs were harming the ozone layer. The chairman of DuPont commented that the ozone depletion theory was "a science fiction tale...a load of rubbish...utter nonsense." (Chemical Week, 16 July 1975). The aerosol industry also launched a PR blitz, issuing a press release stating that the ozone destruction by CFCs was a theory, and not fact. This press release, and many other 'news stories' favorable to industry, were generated by the aerosol industry and printed by the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Fortune magazine, Business Week, and the London Observer (Blysky and Blysky, 1985). The symbol of Chicken Little claiming that "The sky is falling!" was used with great effect by the PR campaign, and appeared in various newspaper headlines.


http://www.wunderground.com/education/ozone_skeptics.asp


That link has a large survey of details. Just the titles of each section are enlightening, as so many of them apply to the creationist debate as well as other non-scientific political conclusions like abstenence-only education.



Predict dire economic consequences, and ignore the cost benefits.

Find and pay a respected scientist to argue persuasively against the threat.


Use non-peer reviewed scientific publications or industry-funded scientists who don't publish original peer-reviewed scientific work to support your point of view.


Trumpet discredited scientific studies and myths supporting your point of view as scientific fact.

Point to the substantial scientific uncertainty, and the certainty of economic loss if immediate action is taken.


Use data from a local area to support your views, and ignore the global evidence.

Disparage scientists, saying they are playing up uncertain predictions of doom in order to get research funding.

Disparage environmentalists, claiming they are hyping environmental problems in order to further their ideological goals.

Complain that it is unfair to require regulatory action in the U.S., as it would put the nation at an economic disadvantage.

Claim that more research is needed before action should be taken.

Argue that it is less expensive to live with the effects.


The author concludes:




Unfortunately, it appears that we have not learned our lesson from the past 30 years' experience with the ozone-CFC debate. Once again, we find a theory that has wide support in the scientific community being attacked by a handful of skeptics, publishing outside of the peer-reviewed scientific literature, their voices greatly amplified by the public relations machines of powerful corporations and politicians sympathetic to them. And once again, some environmentalists have responded by presenting a distorted or imbalanced version of the facts, often colored by excessive emphasis on the low-probability scenarios of doom, that the popular press is only too eager to repeat, since prophesies of disaster sell. A balanced and truthful treatment of the Global Warming debate that focuses on presenting an unbiased version of our current scientific understanding is difficult to find.


Here's that link again for the full page with its examples. Very illuminating.


http://www.wunderground.com/education/ozone_skeptics.asp

a_unique_person
7th January 2005, 11:49 PM
There are still 'sceptics' out there who don't believe the ozone layer issue was a real one.

a_unique_person
8th January 2005, 12:31 AM
Eg the so called junk science (http://www.junkscience.com/Ozone/ozone_seasonal.htm) maintains it is all a fraud

uruk
8th January 2005, 01:28 PM
I think the environmental issue has become so mired in self-serving economic and political agendas that the real science has gottent lost. I recently did a research paper on environmentalists and global warming and it was so hard to find unbiased scientific information. Each side had it's own "scientific" research that supported their respective agendas. One paper I read stated that global temperature have been steadily on the rise, another said that the mean global temperature have only risin by one degree, and most of that was at the beginning of the 1900's. Who do you believe? Most environmentalist groups have vested interests in thier organizations and hierarchy. Environmentalisism has become a booming business. And well, we all know about corporate vested interests.

Some of the few "unbaised" research I've come across (such as NASA, NOAA, and some "universities) pretty what or how much of an impact we are having on the environment. They do not know yet how to tell what is just a natural weather pattern or one that is caused by us. Geologic evidence shows that there are global weather changes which can happen over the period of a few decades. Some even say the temperature increases may just be a product of moving out of the recent iceage.
Environmental research is still a relatively new field. we've only been keeping scientific records for slightly over two hundred years. weather satelites have only been in use for the past few decades. We didn't discover the ozone hole untill we had circumpolar satellites. Computers have only been in use for the past 60 years. The simulation models are only as accurate as our present level of understading of the environment. And if anyone wants to know how good that is just have to remember how accurate the tv weather report is.

These scientists are not saying that we should just do nothing about our impact on the environment. Our activities in the environment does have an impact, (especially on the local environment) thier just not sure what or how much.

I still think it is best to play it safe, but not go overboard.

epepke
8th January 2005, 05:54 PM
I don't know that you're right about paid dissenters with respect to CFCs and the ozone layer, but one thing that's missing from this discussion. Despite whatever paid dissenters there may have been, we (meaning the world as a whole) fixed the ozone layer problem. Completely. And in such a way that it generated more business, not less. So I don't think that any paid dissenters were a problem.

I see a different problem with global warming. People are fixated on feel-good solutions like the Kyoto protocols, which even if fully implemented, would amount to a fart in a hurricane. Almost nobody supports doing the actual science.

Silicon
9th January 2005, 11:51 AM
Most proponents would characterize Kyoto as just a start.


A journey of a million miles requires a first step.


Or do you think that just because that first step is small, we'd better not start at all?

epepke
9th January 2005, 12:56 PM
Originally posted by Silicon
Most proponents would characterize Kyoto as just a start.

I haven't met most proponents. However, I don't characterize it as a start. I characterize it as a vast waste of resources which will have little or no effect. You don't start with the thing that costs the most and would do the least. Furthermore, whatever most proponents may think, most people I've seen just use it as a way to distinguish the US (bad) from the rest of the world (good).

Assuming that one has decided that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere needs to be reduced, there are many things that would cost less and have a greater effect. What is that phrase, think globally, act locally? Look at the successes and see what's worked there. Look at how California cleaned up LA and how Britain cleaned up London. Look at how the US required catalytic converters on their cars; it was a decade before unleaded gasoline was even available in Europe. Look at how the Nature Conservancy has had some effect on the depletion of the rainforests.

If Arnold Schwarzenegger decided tomorrow to require CO2 scrubbers on every car in California, it would do more to reduce CO2 emissions than any amount of treatifying.

These are the kinds of things we need to do more of, not enhance some vapid and corrupt international bureaocracy.

TillEulenspiegel
9th January 2005, 01:52 PM
Most reputable scientists are skeptics by the nature of the methods of scientific inquiry.

Any person who starts with a conclusion and sets out to support it by manipulation ( meaning anything from cherry picking supportive studies, or basic fraud) , is no scientist or skeptic. See the many "Experts" who supported the that Tobacco is not harmful or addictive, the DOW Tri-clor, dioxin studies ( in re transformers and cleaning agents by the hired guns of that cooperation. Money is power and as we know power corrupts...