Can anyone clear it?

[Kumar]

Hello all,

Dr.Bhatia has posted following question at hpathy. Can anyone clear it?

Someone called me up today and told me that the James Randi million dollar challenge to prove that homeopathy works has been won. I am not sure if this is true. So I am asking if anyone knows for sure. The person told me that he saw this in a program on Discovery Channel (India) 2 days back. Has anyone any clue about this program? has anyone seen something like this on Discovery? If someone has access to Randi forums, can you enquire?



__________________
Manish Bhatia (Dr. B!)

http://www.hpathy.com/homeopathy/forum_posts.asp?TID=2627&PN=1

Best wishes.

[jmercer]

Homeopathy isn't (according to them) based on psychic phenomena, so I wouldn't think it would even be eligible for the challenge.

And there's nothing in the challenge forum about a homeopathic challenge, either.

KRAMER will obviously be able to confirm or put this to rest for you, but I seriously doubt it's true.

[TheBoyPaj]

There was a big homeopathy trial planned (which Randi mentioned in his commentary and which he said would include the practitioners being paid for their efforts). He certainly seems to include it under the banner of "paranormal".

I don't know if that's the thing they're talking about, but I'd be very wary of people claiming to have won the prize. People have done that prematurely before, you know.

[jmercer]

Oh, yes - I totally forgot about that in the commentary. Strange that it would be considered paranormal, though - it's not like they claim it is, do they?

[TheBoyPaj]

Yeah, but applicants are always claiming that they have found something that scientists have overlooked. Perpetual motion machines, for example. The applicant never thinks it's paranormal, just that they've found a loophole.

[jmercer]

Let me check my understanding - you're saying that since perpetual motion machines and homeopathy violate the known laws of science, they would be classified as paranormal if they actually work - in spite of whatever the proponents say.

If I understand what you're saying correctly, opening up the test to these guys makes a lot more sense to me now.

Thanks for the explanation. :)

(edited for grammar correction)

[TheBoyPaj]

This thread (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?s=&threadid=39203&perpage=40) discusses this topic. Basically, if Randi declares that a phenomenon is paranormal and accepts your challenge, it doesn't matter if you think it's normal or not. If you succeed and the effect is later explained, you have your million regardless.

[Kumar]

Sorry, I just want to know whether anything was there on Discovery channel & if anyone won the prize o not?

[webfusion]

Why aren't you asking the Discovery Channel ?
http://discoverychannel.co.in/_home/index.shtml


As for someone winning the challenge, hmmmmm, we haven't heard a whisper about it. The Amazing Meeting (TAM) is underway in Las Vegas, with James Randi in attendance, and it seems logical to assume he would make a mention of the million being given. It's not something he would keep secret.

[Kumar]

I sent the e.mail to them but I didn't reaceived their reply as yet. It is bit surprising that I am also not getting proper reply here also.

[MRC_Hans]

Have you e-mailed James Randi and asked? That would seem to be the logical thing to do.

Hans

[TheBoyPaj]

Originally posted by Kumar
I sent the e.mail to them but I didn't reaceived their reply as yet. It is bit surprising that I am also not getting proper reply here also.

We have heard nothing about it. What more do you want us to say? Would you rather we made something up?

[Rolfe]

Originally posted by jmercer
Homeopathy isn't (according to them) based on psychic phenomena, so I wouldn't think it would even be eligible for the challenge.Homoeopathy is indeed eligible for the challenge (http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2002/homeopathytrans.shtml). (This is a link to the transcript of the BBC Horizon programme, but it doesn't seem to be working for me right now.)

Several of Randi's commentaries have mentioned attempts to get homoeopaths to go for the challenge, and it seems to be well accepted that distinguishing a homoeopathically potentised remedy from the unpotentised stock solvent or carrier substance is valid as a challenge protocol. Essentially, homoeopaths claim healing properties for content-free remedies which are chemically no more than lactose or a water-alcohol mixture. Although they don't use the word magic, the idea that you can imbue ordinary substances with amazing healing properties by ritualistic diluting and shaking is essentially no different from a magic spell. And invoking misunderstood vocabulary of quantum mechanics doesn't alter this.

Dr. Bhatia is usually wrong. Sounds like this is just another example. I wonder if the Horizon programme has been re-run in the area in question and misreported? Because the trial in the programme was most certainly not successful and the challenge was not won.

Kumar, get real. If someone had succeeded in winning the million, it would be all over this web site, in fact it would be all over the news. In fact, someone passing the preliminary trial phase, while not being eligible for the million, would in itself be big news. (The preliminary phase was waived for the Horizon trial by special dispensation.) There hasn't been the slightest whisper of a hint of anything. So don't you think it's probable that someone is simply mistaken?

Rolfe.

[Dogwood]

Originally posted by Kumar
I sent the e.mail to them but I didn't reaceived their reply as yet. It is bit surprising that I am also not getting proper reply here also.

Why? Do you think we monitor the Discovery Channel 24 hours a day or something?

Do what has been suggested and e-mail Randi and/or Kramer. But don't expect a reply until after TAM.

My non-psychic prediction is however, that the prize has not been won.

[Rolfe]

The link I posted above is working now. My bet is that what is being referred to by Kumar is a re-run of the programme in that transcript, and someone has got the wrong end of the stick.

The actual outcome?NARRATOR: So Horizon hasn't won the million dollars. It's another triumph for James Randi. His reputation and his money are safe....Boring.

Rolfe.

[Winterfrost]

Originally posted by Rolfe
[B](The preliminary phase was waived for the Horizon trial by special dispensation.)

Seriously? Kramer recently told the "ressurrection girl" (can't seem to find that Challenge posting anymore...) that they (paraphrased) "would not change the rules to waive the preliminary trial for anyone, ever."

?

[drkitten]

Originally posted by Winterfrost
Seriously? Kramer recently told the "ressurrection girl" (can't seem to find that Challenge posting anymore...) that they (paraphrased) "would not change the rules to waive the preliminary trial for anyone, ever."


Either Kramer or the TV misspoke. Randi has certainly altered the challenge rules for sufficiently high-profile incidents (for example, putting the prize money into escrow temporarily for SB, if I remember correctly). I'd be marginally more likely to believe Kramer than the random TV reporter.

[Rolfe]

The trial shown on TV was certainly treated as a definitive test, with Randi showing the bank statements to prove that the money existed, and although he didn't actually say he had the cheque with him, the implication was that if there was a sufficiently marked effect there, the money would be won. I can't remember exactly where, but I do recall reading somewhere on this site that because the whole thing was so high-profile, and the controls were so rigorous, (and, unstated, that there was no way there was going to be an effect there anyway so so what), the televised event was being treated as the definitive stage. Kramer would probably be able to clarify this. I'm damn sure they wouldn't waive the preliminary phase for any normal applicant.

To clarify, the unusual thing about this situation was that the "claimant" wasn't someone who themselves believed they had the paranormal power, but the TV show itself, which was essentially saying that if Madeleine Ennis's published results could be replicated under Challenge conditions then they would qualify, so hey, we don't really believe it either, but we'll give it a shot.

Rolfe.

[webfusion]

OK Kumar, you have your clear answer, thanks to Rolfe.

1. This program was in 1988 for Horizon but is still being replayed

2. No, the million wasn't won

3. Homeopathy is nonsense.


Next case...

[Rolfe]

Originally posted by webfusion
1. This program was in 1988 for Horizon but is still being replayed.Actually, it was first shown in November 2002.

I think it's a reasonable assumption that a repeat of this was the origin of Bhatia's silly story. I've seen references to its being shown on the Discovery Channel on other occasions, so if it was that, it wasn't even new to that network.

Rolfe.

[webfusion]

The article said:

...So Randi became the second investigator.

JAMES RANDI: Astonishing.

NARRATOR: On 4th July 1988 the investigative team arrived in Paris ready for the final showdown.


Why did it take from 1988 until 2002 for the HorizonTV Network to air this?

[geni]

Originally posted by webfusion

Why did it take from 1988 until 2002 for the HorizonTV Network to air this?

Becuase:

A) the show was broacast by the bbc

B)the orginal tests were not telivised the Horizon program was an attempt to repeat the orginal claims.

[Kumar]

Thanks all for imformation. I hope these are not just assumptions.

[Rolfe]

Of course they are assumptions, Kumar. We have no more knowledge than you do of what was actually shown by the Discovery Channel in India at the time in question. However, based on the garbled tale Bhatia tells, we are assuming it's likely to have been a repeat of the 2002 Horizon programme.

We are alse assuming (on rather more solid ground) that if anyone had actually won the million dollars then the matter would not have been kept secret except for the Indian edition of the Discovery Channel.

Webfusion - the programme was made in 2001 or 2002, and broadcast in November 2002. Randi makes some mention in his commentary at the time of travelling to England for the purpose. But the programme begins with an account, illustrated with contemporary video footage, of events which happened in 1988. Note how much older Benveniste appears between the 1988 footage and the interviews recorded in 2002. (Oops, sorry, I forgot you probably don't have a video of it!)

In effect, in 1988 Benveniste published a paper claiming that ultradilute IgE can cause degranulation of basophils. A subsequent investigation by Maddox, Stewart and Randi demonstrated that the cause of the positive result was in fact observer bias, and it disappeared when proper blinding procedures were implemented. This was shown at the start of the programme, from contemporary recordings.

Subsequently, Madeleine Ennis repeated the experiment with some modifications, principally that she used ultradilute histamine, not IgG, and she used an automatic electronic cell counter rather than manual microscopy, which should have eliminated any possibility of observer bias. She also reported a positive result, and stuck by her story that her experiments were properly blinded.

The Horizon programme therefore attempted to repicate the Ennis protocol, using neutral third party scientists to perform the experiment, and setting it up as an attempt at the JREF Challenge to highlight that if this effect was really there, it would qualify as paranormal. This was the part which was done in 2001-2002. Of course there was bugger-all there. God only knows what Ennis is playing at, she's mistress of the enigmatic smile, and she's never invited anyone to her laboratory to see if they can spot where bias might be introduced.

Rolfe.

[Kumar]

Rolfe,

That is ok but all these programmes should have shown' tests failed & prize not won'. But Dr. Bhatia is mentioning 'prize won' so we may have to check it more accuretely.

Anyway, thanks for informations.

[Rolfe]

Dr. Bhatia didn't even see the programme for himself, he was only asking for clarification of someone else's story.

Now, which do you think is more likely?[list=1] A homoeopath has won the prize but the only people who have access to this astonishing scoop are the producers of the Indian edition of the Discovery Channel. Randi has even failed to mention it at TAM 3.
Someone misunderstood something else he saw, possibly a repeat of the 2002 Horizon programme.[/list=1]Take your time.

Rolfe.

[Carn]

Originally posted by Rolfe
Homoeopathy is indeed eligible for the challenge (http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2002/homeopathytrans.shtml). (This is a link to the transcript of the BBC Horizon programme, but it doesn't seem to be working for me right now.)



Rolfe.

In the link it is described that Benvenistes team produced results pro memory of water until double blind was established and independants observed the process.

Anyone knows why? Dose it has to mean fraud from Benvenistes or someone of his team? Or could it also be lousiness, e.g. they did not dilute correctly and stuff remained in some low concentrations in the bottles?

Same questions about Ennis, fraud or mistakes?

Carn

[Kumar]

Originally posted by Rolfe
Dr. Bhatia didn't even see the programme for himself, he was only asking for clarification of someone else's story.

Now, which do you think is more likely?[list=1] A homoeopath has won the prize but the only people who have access to this astonishing scoop are the producers of the Indian edition of the Discovery Channel. Randi has even failed to mention it at TAM 3.
Someone misunderstood something else he saw, possibly a repeat of the 2002 Horizon programme.[/list=1]Take your time.

Rolfe.

It can't be calculated or assumed. However, 2nd probabilty looks to be more possible in view of responses.

[Rolfe]

Originally posted by Kumar
It can't be calculated or assumed.While it certainly cannot be calculated, it most certainly can be assumed.

Nevertheless I agree with yout conclusion. Would that be a first?

Rolfe.

[Rolfe]

Originally posted by Carn
Anyone knows why? Dose it has to mean fraud from Benvenistes or someone of his team? Or could it also be lousiness, e.g. they did not dilute correctly and stuff remained in some low concentrations in the bottles?

Same questions about Ennis, fraud or mistakes?The Benveniste situation was quite clear in the full programme. The cell counts (granulated versus degranulated basophils) were done manually, by looking at the cells under a microscope and essentially going one-two-three. Using this technique, it is quite easy to bias the count the way you want it to go. Even without realising it. (For example, a cell is only half in the microscope field. Do you count it or not?)

It turned out that the technicians in Benveniste's lab knew which sample was which and there was a strong probability that they were getting the results they either wanted or expected without actually realising what they were doing. John Maddox spotted this, and Randi devised a blinding code to rectify the problem. When the experiment was repeated with the technicians unaware of which sample was which, the results were random noise. Nobody ever alleged deliberate deception.

Ennis is a slightly different matter. She used an electronic counter, which should by itself have eliminated operator bias. She also maintains she has proper blinding precautions in place. However, she has never had her laboratory practices subjected to any close scrutiny that I am aware of, and when the Horizon team tried to replicate her results they failed.

Rolfe.

[edthedoc]

We'll never get the whole story from Benveniste: he died last year.

[Zep]

Bhatia's quote:Someone called me up today and told me that the James Randi million dollar challenge to prove that homeopathy works has been won. I am not sure if this is true. So I am asking if anyone knows for sure. The person told me that he saw this in a program on Discovery Channel (India) 2 days back. Has anyone any clue about this program? has anyone seen something like this on Discovery? If someone has access to Randi forums, can you enquire?It's a question about something he has heard second-hand. Which means, Kumar, even Bhatia did not know about it (and couldn't be bothered to look it up himself). And if it turned out true, don't you think Bhatia would be trumpeting it across India now?




[sound of mosquitos whining in the silence...]

[Ladewig]

Originally posted by Rolfe


Kumar, get real.

You told Kumar to "get real."
Such advice indicates that it is you that believes in magic. :D

[Rolfe]

Originally posted by Ladewig
You told Kumar to "get real."
Such advice indicates that it is you that believes in magic. :D Touché!

If you've read the whole thread - isn't "Edifying Fiona" a complete cow! Knows everything, ready to lecture everyone and anyone about everything and anything, and has a PhD in getting hold of the wrong end of the stick.

I happened to be around in the thread where she first joined, and she was exactly like that even from her first posts. Like, I'm a homoeopath, so I know I have carte blanche to be as big a bitch as I like around here, and I'll get the wholehearted support of the mods and the other members.

I wonder if she is actually a sock of one of the mods? They do run these - "Humble" is actually one of the admin team, though I can't remember which one at the moment.

Rolfe.

[KRAMER]

Originally posted by Kumar
It is bit surprising that I am also not getting proper reply here also.

Whoever told you the prize had been won was pulling your leg and pulling it hard. We have no planned test of homeopathy as a result of a submitted application, and the Million Dollars has not been won by anyone, anywhere. The preliminary test has never been passed, either. No final, formal test has ever taken place.

Kapisto? Bueno.

And if the Discovery Channel had ever reported such an event,
I'm sure we would have heard about it long before such rumours appeared here in the forum. And there's your proper reply. I hope it satisfies you.

However, there is a proposal in the works (presented by a group of UK scientists) which would last at least 2 years and cost over a million pounds to conduct. We are presently involved in seeking funding for such a test, the results of which would be conclusive in every sense of the word.

Now here is the caveat: As of this point in time, the Homeopathists involved have NOT submitted an application for the Challenge, despite the fact that Randi has offered the million dollar prize as a reward for passing the test.

Randi has also offered me a bet of $1,000 that, like so many other homeopathists, quacks and frauds, the group (which has agreed to the test) will either withdraw their protocol approval, vanish sometime during the course of the preparations, or simply refuse to be tested when the time comes.

Randi bets that the test, like all other such acceptable tests, will never take place.

I won't take the bet. I'm quite sure his prediction will be realized.

[KRAMER]

Originally posted by new drkitten
Either Kramer or the TV misspoke. Randi has certainly altered the challenge rules for sufficiently high-profile incidents (for example, putting the prize money into escrow temporarily for SB, if I remember correctly). I'd be marginally more likely to believe Kramer than the random TV reporter.

A clarification:

I myself have no authority to alter, amend or discard any of the Challenge rules, "ever".

Randi himself, however, certainly does, and as stated previously here by a forum member, he has done so (VERY rarely) but only in high-profile cases, or when dangling the million dollar carrot before the nose of world reknowned "psychics" in an attempt to get them to apply and be tested. He WANTS to test them. He WANTS them to prove that they can actually do what they are making a fortune by only pretending to do.

It has never worked, though, despite the fact that some HAVE accepted in public, such as the fatuous, infamous Sylvia Browne.

See the home page of the JREF website and have a look at the Sylvia Browne clock. Time marches on.

Like so many others of her noxious ilk, she accepts publicly, then ignores all correspondence sent to her in an attempt to set a test location and date.

Gee. Why do you suppose she might do that ?

Duh.

[CFLarsen]

Originally posted by KRAMER
Gee. Why do you suppose she might do that ?

Duh.

Exactly. This is why I find it so hard to accept that these high-profile proponents of the paranormal (and I'm being nice here) are self-deluded. I would like to be convinced that people like Sylvia Browne, John Edward, James van Praagh, or even Gary Schwartz are self-deluded, but I simply cannot see how they can be.

Based on their behavior, I think it would be highly unlikely that they are deluding themselves. They know that they are crooks.

Feel free to convince me otherwise.

[KRAMER]

I had the honor of being in the presence of Richard Dawkins last weekend at TAM3. His rocket-fueled intellect was never less than astounding.

Those of you who were there may recall a statement he made (which drew thunderous applause and laughter) regarding 'the inherent problem in any double-blind test of homeopathy'...and I am paraphrasing here, though Professor Dawkins' address will appear in its entirety on the forthcoming TAM3 dvd, now in preparation:

"...the problem being that the control/placebo is identical to the experimental."

He also offered a way in which this problem could be solved, namely by putting the control substance through precisely the same dillution process as the experimental. Again, I am paraphrasing here.

I am quite sure that the Dawkins segment of the forthcoming TAM3 dvd will be most enlightening for anyone looking for answers to the problem of finding an acceptable test of homeopathy.

[KRAMER]

Originally posted by CFLarsen
Based on their behavior, I think it would be highly unlikely that they are deluding themselves. They know that they are crooks.

Feel free to convince me otherwise.

Don't look at me.

As an employee of the JREF, I am required to use specific wording when quantifying the "talents" of these people you've mentioned, as follows:

IN MY OPINION, they know that they are crooks.

Yes folks, unless I want to draw attention from their lawyers, I must preface such statements with the words, "in my opinion".

I cannot say that they are frauds, but I can certainly state that such is my opinion.

How nice it would be if I could speak my mind freely.

[Rolfe]

Originally posted by KRAMER
How nice it would be if I could speak my mind freely. Well, I can. I've explicitly dangled the JREF million in front of qualified veterinary surgeons who espouse homoeopathy. They went through exactly the same hoops as the psychics. Randi is a stage entertainer, and you'd do well not to get involved with such a charlatan, and so on.

This is just nuts. I'm not a particularly high-maintenance person myself, and I earn more than I spend on a regular basis. I own my own house, I have enough in the bank to indulge my modest whims, and my pension plan isn't bad.

But even I would happily crawl barefoot over broken glass for the chance to net a million bucks just for demonstrating that the medicine I practice every day actually has a physiological effect. If anyone was mad enough to offer me the opportunity.

OK, something might go wrong. Conceivably, Randi might even stack the deck and prevent me from winning. (Though if he did he'd better be ready for some seriously bad publicity.) But it would still be worth the try. Indeed, every doctor and vet on the planet would be queueing up, quite frankly.

The disdainful rejection of the prize really says it all.

Knowing, deliberate fraud.

Rolfe.