Iraqi Election Predictions

[Tmy]

Less than a week away!! I dont know what the hell is going to happen. I here there are like 7000 candidates, but its hard to tell jsut whos who cause they are afraid to campaine. Voting will probably be a hazard with all these insurgents planning to disrupt things.

Any odds on voter turnout? # of explosions?

[iain]

George Bush will be declared the winner; but cynics will come up with feeble reasons why the vote must have been rigged like "he wasn't standing as a candidate".

[Kerberos]

Originally posted by Tmy

Any odds on voter turnout? # of explosions?
There's only going to be a single explosion, voter turnout will be impossible to determine since the explosion happens in downtown Baghdad and comes froim a nuclear bomb. (Do I win the Million dollars if I'm right?)

[Cleon]

Obviously, Allawi's going to win. The US' favored candidate is not going to lose an election when the US military is running the country. :) His win will be spun as "proof" that Iraqis love the occupation.

The truth being, of course, that most Iraqis won't participate. Some will boycott, particularly hardcore anti-Occupation types. But like Afghanistan, the majority who don't live in Baghdad and maybe a couple of other cities simply won't be able to.

[HarryKeogh]

I predict low voter turnout and lots of dead people

[bjornart]

Originally posted by Cleon
Obviously, Allawi's going to win. The US' favored candidate is not going to lose an election when the US military is running the country. :) His win will be spun as "proof" that Iraqis love the occupation.

The truth being, of course, that most Iraqis won't participate. Some will boycott, particularly hardcore anti-Occupation types. But like Afghanistan, the majority who don't live in Baghdad and maybe a couple of other cities simply won't be able to.

Actually I think Baghdad will be one of the places people can't vote, rather than one where they can.

[Cleon]

Originally posted by bjornart
Actually I think Baghdad will be one of the places people can't vote, rather than one where they can.

Well, the US controls Baghdad pretty well, so they'd be able to set up voter stations and guard them pretty well (and, of course, ensure that people vote for the right person). Fallujah--hell no, they won't be able to vote. Mosul--maybe. Tikrit--really, really, unlikely.

[Tmy]

Did they have any debates.? Id' love to hear what the different candidates have to say.

[HarryKeogh]

Originally posted by Tmy
Did they have any debates.? Id' love to hear what the different candidates have to say.

Are they even campaigning? Seems like a good way to be targeted for assassination.

[rikzilla]

Prediction: Mosul will be the trouble spot.

The 4th ID is gearing up for a fight up there to keep the polls open. I'm betting the rest of Iraq will turn out in large numbers to vote.

-z

[Number Six]

I submit that most people want to vote in the election, although they may be scared away by violence. The 60% Shi'ite definitely want to vote becuase they're going to win. And the 20% Kurds want to vote because they like the new Iraq better than the old Iraq. It's the 20% Sunni that don't want to vote and that are going to try to stop as many Shi'ites and Kurds from doing so as they can.

[Ziggurat]

Originally posted by Cleon
Obviously, Allawi's going to win. The US' favored candidate is not going to lose an election when the US military is running the country. :) His win will be spun as "proof" that Iraqis love the occupation.


I don't think you understand how this election is being run, or what the election is really for. This isn't an election for the prime minister, it's an election for the national assembly. The statement that obviously Allawi will win doesn't even make that much sense: he's part of a party slate, which may do well, but this isn't a winner-take-all election.

[DavidJames]

There may be violence, but not as much as predicted allowing the administration to proclaim the election another milestone in making Iraq a free, democratic nation, and underscoring the the value and real reason for the invasion.

[varwoche]

Originally posted by rikzilla
Prediction: Mosul will be the trouble spot.

The 4th ID is gearing up for a fight up there to keep the polls open. I'm betting the rest of Iraq will turn out in large numbers to vote. It looks like it will be a trouble spot even ignoring potential violence.

Mosul is the 3rd largest city in Iraq, with a population just under 2 million. According to a news report yesterday (on NPR?) they need approx 800 election workers. As of several days ago there were 3.

[HarryKeogh]

from this week's issue...

www.theonion.com

http://www.theonion.com/images/421/image_article2730_418x429.jpg

[VicDaring]

Originally posted by HarryKeogh
Are they even campaigning? Seems like a good way to be targeted for assassination.

I read somewhere that the Iranian government is spending loads of money campaigning for their candidates.

Lovely.

My prediction is that W. will say, "Freedom is on the march!" about a billion times.

[rikzilla]

Go checkout Ali's blog (http://iraqilibe.blogspot.com/2005/01/situation-in-baghdad-remains-same.html)

"...I would never believe that the Ba'athists and Islamists funded and aided by the intelligence of many Arab and Muslim countries would let the election day pass peacefully.
I'm more than sure they are planning for some serious attacks on that day and it's not going to be like Afghanistan where there were only few attacks on few voting centers.
The stakes are too high for them just as they are for us.
We've been waiting for the moment when we can decide our future all our lives and now it's happening and I can't tell you how excited that makes me and all freedom loving Iraqis.
.I feel like after voting I would not care what would happen to me.
I would say my word, voice my will loud and clear in public for the first time in my life and that means almost everything to me.
The terrorist can kill me and many of the Iraqis who are going to vote, but we would die proud.
We will regain our self esteem and our pride that Saddam and his thugs took away by humiliating us, torturing and killing our friends and beloved ones in front of our eyes and then spitting in our faces after that, and all we could do was what we had to do to avoid more death and torture, we could only praise them after each murder and each crime.
. It made us hate ourselves and the whole world, lose our trust in everyone and just keep living a life that was worse than death but one that we still couldn't sacrifice for a good cause fearing for our families fate after our death."

I'm just guessing here,....but I think Ali and his brothers will be voting no matter how hairy it gets.

-z

[VicDaring]

Oh goody, we're going Blog.

From Riverbend (http://riverbendblog.blogspot.com/):

The elections are set for the 29th. It's an interesting situation. The different sects and factions just can't seem to agree. Sunni Arabs are going to boycott elections. It's not about religion or fatwas or any of that so much as the principle of holding elections while you are under occupation. People don't really sense that this is the first stepping stone to democracy as western media is implying. Many people sense that this is just the final act of a really bad play. It's the tying of the ribbon on the "democracy parcel" we've been handed. It's being stuck with an occupation government that has been labeled 'legitimate' through elections.

We're being bombarded with cute Iraqi commercials of happy Iraqi families preparing to vote. Signs and billboards remind us that the elections are getting closer...

Can you just imagine what our history books are going to look like 20 years from now?

"The first democratic elections were held in Iraq on January 29, 2005 under the ever-watchful collective eye of the occupation forces, headed by the United States of America. Troops in tanks watched as swarms of warm, fuzzy Iraqis headed for the ballot boxes to select one of the American-approved candidates..."

It won't look good.

She goes on to talk about invisible candidates and ballot selling.

But hey, Freedom is on the March!




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