EU doomed to failure within 15 years

[shecky]

sez CIA (http://news.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=591&id=56762005)

THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

[Tex]

I've noticed that the adjective "ailing" or "troubled" is used to describe pretty much every welfare or pension system in the world. If worse comes to worst, welfare benefits could be cut, and while this is not ideal, I don't see how it follows that the EU would "break up" over this. Plus buying power in Europe should be boosted by the fact that they have the world's new hegemonic currency.

But the end of NATO I could see. Thanks in no small part to Bush's follies, the Europeans would no doubt prefer to strengthen the capacities of the EU and phase out their alliances with the US.

[KelvinG]

Oh, I wouldn't take this CIA report to seriously. I'm sure it's plagued by bad intelligence.

[Nikk]

It is hard to see any reason why welfare costs should not be addressed when they become too burdensome. Or why this would lead to the break up of the EU. What benefits would that have to anybody? There is no EU wide welfare system only a series of national systems.

The break up of NATO is quite likely however.

Insofar as the report sees a multipolar world developing, sure, that is fairly obvious. Bush's policies may make the US's influence in that world less than it would otherwise have been but it is impossible to predict if the system will be less stable as a result.

[a_unique_person]

Originally posted by Nikk
It is hard to see any reason why welfare costs should not be addressed when they become too burdensome. Or why this would lead to the break up of the EU. What benefits would that have to anybody? There is no EU wide welfare system only a series of national systems.


Exactly. The welfare system is the responsibility of each state. If that means that some states do not mean the requirements of their membership of the EU, it is a matter for each of the states.

The departure of a few states does not mean the end of the UE, and the existence and viability of each of the states is, as ever, a matter for the citizens of that state.

[Nikk]

Originally posted by a_unique_person
Exactly. The welfare system is the responsibility of each state. If that means that some states do not mean the requirements of their membership of the EU, it is a matter for each of the states.

The departure of a few states does not mean the end of the UE, and the existence and viability of each of the states is, as ever, a matter for the citizens of that state.

One can always create a doomsday scenario in which welfare costs effectively bankrupt a state but as we are not Argentina it is not too likely that anything like this would happen.

One of the strengths of the EU is that there are significant differences in the economies and social structures of the various states. This means that there are a range of examples of different economic and social models to learn from when reform in an individual state is needed.

[MRC_Hans]

CIA. CIA? Wasn't that the very same agency that recently told us about all those nasty Weapons of Mass Destruction[tm] that a certain Saddam Hussein was hoarding?:dio:

So, now they have an opinion of what will happen in one of the world's most complex economical systems over the next 20 years?

Mmmm, I think I will opt not to loose too much sleep over that :rolleyes:.

Hans