Anyone seen whats going on in Lebanon?

[TillEulenspiegel]

Just listened to a Lebanese man address hundreds of thousands . His statement was :We are all Lebanese Muslim , Jew, Christian. We are all one all Lebanese" Crowd goes nuts.

The demonstrators theme was Syria out , the pro Syrian government out.

Wow an outbreak of spontaneous democracy? In the middle East ?With no tanks?

Well Theres the Velvet revolution, the rose revoloution...Maybe thats the wave of the future?

Almost gives one hope. One more oasis of sanity in a region of self- destructive and self-defeating behavior.

Oh if but true.

[CBL4]

I share your joy but it needs to be tempered.

First of all, it sounds nationalistic not democratic. Second, democracy failed once in Lebanon. Freedom and democracy in Lebanon would be wonderful but it will be a hard struggle.

CBL

[aerocontrols]

It's awesome.

[Jocko]

Is there a source? I'd love to see more on this. If this kind of inclusive language permeates throughout, I'd say it's much more than rank nationalism.

[aerocontrols]

Originally posted by Jocko
Is there a source? I'd love to see more on this. If this kind of inclusive language permeates throughout, I'd say it's much more than rank nationalism.

Lots (http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&q=lebanon&btnG=Search+News) of sources.

Photos (http://news.search.yahoo.com/search/news/?ei=ISO-8859-1&c=news_photos&p=lebanon+protests) , too.

[TillEulenspiegel]

Sorry heard it on NPR and it was breaking news.
Abc news has this :http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=519698

Seems there was a gaff in the numbers, it was 10's of thousands in the particular circumstance I posted. The difference tho I thing is just arithmetic and not indicative of the stance of the people in the country.

As for cautionary, I remember ...still, that guy with a bag full of Bok Choy standing in front of a tank in Tienanmen square. Just when all seemed to go their way , the government sent in tanks and killed people.

I hoped for them, as I now hope for the Iraqis and the Lebanese.

Edit : AHH I see Aero beat me . cool.

[Mycroft]

Originally posted by CBL4
I share your joy but it needs to be tempered.

First of all, it sounds nationalistic not democratic. Second, democracy failed once in Lebanon. Freedom and democracy in Lebanon would be wonderful but it will be a hard struggle.

CBL

I don't think nationalism is a bad thing if it advances a positive change.

[CBL4]

I don't think nationalism is a bad thing if it advances a positive change.Not to be too flippant but a positive change is clearly positive. Nationalism can be a cause for good or bad or, more likely, both.

If it gets the Syrians out of Lebanon, then it is a short term good. The medium to long term effect will have to wait. I am cautiously hopeful.

CBL

[Mycroft]

"It is my civic duty as a Lebanese to take part in this uprising," said Youssef Mukhtar, a 47-year-old engineer. "Enough bloodshed and disasters. It is the 21st century, and people should be able to govern themselves. The situation has become unbearable and we have to regain our country."

Many held pictures of Hariri and sang patriotic songs. Some protesters held a copy of the Quran in one hand and the cross in another hand to signify Muslim-Christian national unity.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2005/02/21/international/i063538S45.DTL

Beautiful imagry, the cross and the Quran together to represent unity.

A large portion of my family are Lebanese-Americans, so I follow this with more than casual interest. It would be a miracle if this tragedy somehow led to Lebanon being freed from Syrian influence. Let's pray for that miracle.

[aerocontrols]

Originally posted by Mycroft
It would be a miracle if this tragedy somehow led to Lebanon being freed from Syrian influence. Let's pray for that miracle.

JREF is not the place I expected to see world events attributed to a Divine power.

I hope for good things to occur, and if I have the ability, I try to help them along. I never know quite what to say when someone asks me to pray for something.

MattJ

[Skeptic]

Originally posted by CBL4
I share your joy but it needs to be tempered.

First of all, it sounds nationalistic not democratic. Second, democracy failed once in Lebanon. Freedom and democracy in Lebanon would be wonderful but it will be a hard struggle.

CBL

However, if the call is truly for "we are all Lebanese, jews, Christians, and Muslims" then the nationalism here serves as a commitment to diversity, not for uniformity.

After all, when someone says, "we are all Americans, black, white, brown, yellow, and red", this is really a call for racial harmony, not a call for American nationalism.

This is not to say you are wrong in your worries, but just to put it in context.

[peptoabysmal]

Originally posted by TillEulenspiegel
Wow an outbreak of spontaneous democracy? In the middle East ?With no tanks?


So you believe that the wars in Afganistan and Iraq had nothing to do with this?

[TillEulenspiegel]

Originally posted by peptoabysmal
So you believe that the wars in Afganistan and Iraq had nothing to do with this?


Did I say that? I'm sure that the despots in the ME are looking at each other wondering, Who's next?

No I was commenting on the nature of the demonstrations, spontaneous, inclusive, from the ground up. That is why it seems more promising then "regime change" or coups fronted by right wing death squads trained in the US or Islamic driven attempts to re-craft the world according to their twisted vision trained in terrorist camps.

What the quote about one man fighting for his home being greater then ten mercenaries? Any force from the outside , no matter how well intentioned cannot equal the inertia of a nation rallying around common cause.

[Mycroft]

Originally posted by aerocontrols
I hope for good things to occur, and if I have the ability, I try to help them along. I never know quite what to say when someone asks me to pray for something.


Don't say anything. Just take it as you would a figure of speech like "cross your fingers." There is nothing wrong with agreeing with the sentiment expressed without buying into the ritual evoked to express it.

[webfusion]

"Any force from the outside , no matter how well intentioned cannot equal the inertia of a nation rallying around common cause." said TillEulenspiegel.

Here is my question:
Today there was a meeting of the opponents of Israeli disengagement, and a new working group was formed by several right-wing IDF reservists (calling themselves "The Judgement Day Team" (http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/543106.html)) whose mission will be to organize tens of thousands of demonstrators to take to the streets against the July 20th evacuation of jews from the Gaza Strip.

So, can the mainstream Israelis (common cause, if you will) who overwhelmingly want this Gaza withdrawal to go forward, be now be considered an "outside force" by the Gaza settlers?

===================================

back on topic :::::
Regarding the demonstrations in Lebanon, at some point these Freedom Lovers better be careful, because the Syrians are notorious for not taking any sh*t from popular reformist movements, and they have proved their willingness in the past to simply put these instigations directly into the ground (literally).
http://www.reformsyria.org/Baath/Terrorism/the_hama_massacre.htm

see: Hama, 1982

[kimiko]

The first female suicide bomber, Loula Abboud, was Lebanese...and Christian. The religions will unite against a common enemy, but it's not necessarily positive.

I echo the cautiously optomistic feeling.

[The Central Scrutinizer]

/Start Butthead

Uhhhh....huh huh huh huh .....were there any lebanese chicks there? Huh uh uh uh u huhhu huh uh uh !!!!

/End

[webfusion]

Since the USA and France are "mobilizing" their efforts together now, that's where most of the reports are coming from and the media is focused on Bush and Chirac.

However, here is an interesting DEBKA article:

Friday, February 18:
As revealed by DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources, Syrian forces began distributing weapons to Lebanese groups supporting Damascus and arming the 1.4 million expatriate laborers in Lebanon.

The belligerent Hizballah (Iranian-backed) leader Hassan Nasrallah warned (or threatened) that "popular agitation against Syria’s grip on the country following the killing of Rafiq Hariri could plunge Lebanon into civil war again." With clear and solid support from Damascus and Tehran, he exhorted the 100,000 Shiites massed in Beirut to mark the Ashura festival (Friday) not to forget the real enemy: "Death to Israel!" they roared after him.

[Mycroft]

Originally posted by webfusion
Friday, February 18:
As revealed by DEBKAfile’s intelligence sources, Syrian forces began distributing weapons to Lebanese groups supporting Damascus and arming the 1.4 million expatriate laborers in Lebanon.
[/i]

Webs,

Isn't the population of Lebanon less than 4 milllion? How can a country that small absorb 1.4 million expatriot workers from Syria?

[BPSCG]

If Lebanon could throw out the Syrians and become a democracy again, Syria would be surrounded by democracies (yes, I'm including Iraq as a democracy).

That has to worry Bashir Assad.

[webfusion]

in Lebanon, apparently, there is plenty to keep this large influx of Syrians busy. It would be terribly difficult to obtain some independent confirmation of these numbers, but knowing how Syrians have so little to do in their own country, it wouldn't surprise me that such a vast expatriate community sprang-up in the Lebanon over the past decades. By the way, have you noticed how the mainstream media is ignoring the pro-Syrian aspect and focusing almost exclusively on the opposition? I just had a slight tiff with Mr The Fool on another forum topic because he couldn't "find" any mention of this information and demanded I provide sources to back up my (apparently, in his view) false statements. When I showed him that it was indeed proper information, TF proceeded to insult me with an ad-hom. Typical.


{edited to add:::::}
Case to consider:
During the later Ottoman & British Mandate periods, hundreds of thousands of Syrians (Huranis) drifted South into the Western part of Palestine, as the Jews built up the nation. They went to work in the Haifa port, and assisted in various other endeavors that the Jewish immigrants were undertaking, including railroads, quarries, housing, clearing the Hula Valley, etc.
I don't have the source documentation right in front of me, but 100,000 or so were admitted to Palestine during the 1930's ------

"30,000-36,000 Syrian migrants (Huranis) entered Palestine during the last few months alone" ("La Syrie" daily, August 12, 1934).

Syrian rulers have always considered the area as a southern province of Greater Syria. Az-ed-Din el-Qassam, the role-model of Hamas terrorism, who terrorized Jews in British Mandate, was a Syrian, as were Said el-A'az, a leader of the 1936-38 anti-Jewish pogroms and also Kaukji, the commander-in-chief of the Arab mercenaries terrorizing Jews in the thirties and forties.

Oh yeah, and all those hundreds of thousands of Syrians who "migrated" (along with Egyptians, Sudanese, Eastern Palestinians (from trans-Jordan), Lebanese, Iraqis, Turks and others) instantly became the "indigenous population of Palestine" who then claimed the Jews displaced them from their Palestinian homeland in 1948!
True story.

[aerocontrols]

Originally posted by Mycroft
Webs,

Isn't the population of Lebanon less than 4 milllion? How can a country that small absorb 1.4 million expatriot workers from Syria?

CIA world factbook estimates the number of expatriate workers in Lebanon at 1 million in 2001. Whatever the real number is now, there's no reason to believe that all of them are Syrian. Then again, there's no reason to think that Syria would only arm Syrian expats. One presumes they might arm Palestinians as well.

My opinion of Debka as an objective source is less than stellar.

[Ed]

The Lebanese are great Americans.

[aerocontrols]

NRO's The Corner (http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp) has a couple of interesting observations. The leader of this movement to remove the Syrians from Lebanon is Walid Jumblatt. Now check this out

February 3, 2002: "The oil axis is present in most of the U.S. administration, beginning with its president, vice-president, and top advisers, including [Condoleezza] Rice, who is oil-colored, while the axis of Jews is present with Paul Wolfowitz."

November, 19, 2003: Walid Jumblatt expresses regret that Paul Wolfowitz was not killed during a missile attack that occured while Wolfowitz was visiting Baghdad.

February 12, 2004: "We are all happy when U.S. soldiers are killed [in Iraq] week in and week out. The killing of U.S. soldiers in Iraq is legitimate and obligatory."

April 28, 2004: He says that America was behind Osama Bin Laden, using him whenever we needed an enemy to pop up. When asked "Even 9/11", he replied "Even 9/11...Why didn't the sirens go off when the four hijacked planes took off?...The U.S. always needs an enemy...According to this plan or ideology of the born-again Christians who formed an alliance with Zionism - Islam is the monster, Islam is the target."

February 21, 2005: "It's strange for me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq," explains Jumblatt. "I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, 8 million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world." Jumblatt says this spark of democratic revolt is spreading. "The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing. The Berlin Wall has fallen. We can see it."

A case of the insane, driven sane?

MattJ

[rikzilla]

Originally posted by aerocontrols
NRO's The Corner (http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp) has a couple of interesting observations. The leader of this movement to remove the Syrians from Lebanon is Walid Jumblatt. Now check this out



A case of the insane, driven sane?

MattJ

So cool....Sharansky was right! :) Freedom is axiomatic.

-z

[Ed]

Originally posted by aerocontrols
NRO's The Corner (http://www.nationalreview.com/thecorner/corner.asp) has a couple of interesting observations. The leader of this movement to remove the Syrians from Lebanon is Walid Jumblatt. Now check this out



A case of the insane, driven sane?

MattJ


Walid Jumblatt, you, sir, are a great American. Do was Danny Thomas.

[webfusion]

"My opinion of Debka as an objective source is less than stellar." ---- aerocontrols.

Absolutely, no argument there! They are not CBS News, that's for sure! However, that is not to say they don't have their place in the world of Internet Information Sources.

Look, what is happening more and more, the major news outlets parrot the words they get in "News Conferences" and they follow whatever stuff is easily obtainable. The bloggers and non-traditional sources are filling a need for details and fact-checking and research and bringing stories forward that aren't even being mentioned in the mainstream media. One of the reasons I like coming onto this board is the continual postings here mentioning off-beat and interesting stories, and evaluating their importance based on the unique JREF "I doubt that.." point of view!

Not all sources can be taken at face value, but the underlying points can be debated. To dismiss a report because it comes from Debka, or WorldNetDaily or Israel National News (Arutz7) or even Ha'Aaretz journalists such as Amira Haas, is shortsighted. It is a case of attacking the messenger instead of the message.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Now, regarding the numbers of expatriate Syrians, I have registered and then written an inquiry directly to the Ministry of Expatriates (http://www.moex.gov.sy/) in Damascus, to try to verify the number. I should have their reply shortly.

Also, in re-reading the report I mentioned in Debka, it says that the Syrians are arming "groups" that will support and defend their 1.5-million expatriates, it actually doesn't say that the expatriates themselves are all being armed. A minor deviation, and yes, that would tend to support your contention that Palestinians are being supplied with weapons at this stage, in anticipation of needing them to put down the Walid-Jumblatt-led anti-Syrian coalition.

[aerocontrols]

Originally posted by webfusion
Not all sources can be taken at face value, but the underlying points can be debated. To dismiss a report because it comes from Debka, or WorldNetDaily or Israel National News (Arutz7) or even Ha'Aaretz journalists such as Amira Haas, is shortsighted. It is a case of attacking the messenger instead of the message.


I didn't dismiss the report due to it's source. I addressed it and added some more information to try to answer Mycroft's questions.

Then I stated that I don't think they are an objective source. We should be wary of messengers, some more than others.

MattJ