ELAINE McGUCKIN, Asteroid Prophet

[jmercer]

Kramer,

Just an observation - she didn't claim that the town would be destroyed on that date, just that the date had signficance that would be explained after the town was destroyed.

From McGuckin's letter
I place no precise time for these events but indicate that March 9, 2005 has a connection to the first of them and that that will be explained after the event has occurred, whenever that shall be.


There are two problems here:

1) The March 9 date has no specified content, just that the significance of it will be explained after the first town is destroyed.

2) Both asteroid event timings are utterly open-ended. They can happen now, or 1000 years in the future.

You can reject the claim because it's open-ended, but I don't see how you can close it based on the March 9 date - since there's no way to know what she means by it having a "connection".

(Edited to add last sentence in clarification)

[Lisa Simpson]

For those of you in Scotland and Australia, did anything of any interest happen in those places on the date specified?

[Metullus]

Originally posted by jmercer
Kramer,

Just an observation - she didn't claim that the town would be destroyed on that date, just that the date had signficance that would be explained after the town was destroyed.



There are two problems here:

1) The March 9 date has no specified content, just that the significance of it will be explained after the first town is destroyed.

2) Both asteroid event timings are utterly open-ended. They can happen now, or 1000 years in the future.

You can reject the claim because it's open-ended, but I don't see how you can close it based on the March 9 date - since there's no way to know what she means by it having a "connection".

(Edited to add last sentence in clarification)

I agree, the March 9th date does not seem to have any relevance except retrospectively - it is the open-endedness of the claim that makes it untestable.

No different than my prediction that the numbers 2, 13, 23, 31, & 43 will win the lottery sometime after March 9th, 2005.

So who gets the interest on the $1m over the 1000 years?

[KRAMER]

Yes, you are quite correct. I didn't read that properly. I noticed it when I opened the subsequent claim letter, which came from the same Kerala Post Office. Quite a pair, these two.

So the file will be open for 12 months and if either of those two towns are destroyed by asteroids within that time period, she wins the big bucks.

OK?

OK.

[jmercer]

Ok.

Hey.

Wait a minute.

Do I win anything for being right? Like an wristband? ;) :D

[Lisa Simpson]

Originally posted by KRAMER
Yes, you are quite correct. I didn't read that properly. I noticed it whebn I opened the subsequent claim letter, which came from the same Kerala Post Office. Quite a pair, these two.

So the file will be open for 12 months and if either of those two towns are destroyed by asteroids within that time period, she wins the big bucks.

OK?

OK.

Of course, then out of the generosity of her heart, she will donate the million to families in Scotland and Australia, right?

[Metullus]

Originally posted by Lisa Simpson
Of course, then out of the generosity of her heart, she will donate the million to families in Scotland and Australia, right?

Why do you even ask? Are you a cynic as well as a sKeptic?

Have you no faith in humanity?

Geeze, Louise...

[Lisa Simpson]

No, I'm a Kynic and a sKeptic. And a bad speeler.

[jmercer]

But you do have a way with words. I laughed harder and harder every time I saw a "No." from you in response to Kumar in the other forums.

Eloquent, short, pithy and pointed. How did you get so much into a single word? :clap:

[webfusion]

You folks aren't doing your homework --

March 9, 2005:
Princeton University, Department of Astrophysical Sciences (http://www.princetonastronomy.org/announce.html) offered its monthly public observing open house starting at 8:00 PM.

During this session, while viewing the heavens through a 12" Schmidt-Cassegrain telescope, someone discovered an asteroid the size of Delaware looming large and headed straight for earth.

http://www.nastyboy.ch/images/space/asteroid.jpg

[Metullus]

Yeah, but which town is it going to hit?

[webfusion]

This thing is the size of Delaware. It won't hit just a few tiny towns! Methinks Elaine has her focus way too limited.
Upon impact, (estimates by the Princeton team are 73 days, give or take a few hours) our entire civilization will vanish in the darkness of a global dust cloud. McGuckin's sure gonna have one slight problem ---- where to spend her million with all the supermarkets closed forever.

[Metullus]

Impossible.

Delaware does not exist.

Scientific fact.

[jmercer]

What about California?

[Metullus]

Tis a consumation devoutly to be wish'd...

[Enid]

Metullus does not exist.

Scientific fact.

[Odin]

Some shocking information-
Jambo lives here-
Location: North Lanarkshire Scotland
according to multimap thats here:
here (http://www.multimap.com/map/browse.cgi?client=public&X=300000.821902063&Y=650000.738290284&width=500&height=300&gride=277936.821902063&gridn=667252.738290284&srec=0&coordsys=gb&db=freegaz&addr1=&addr2=&addr3=&pc=&advanced=&local=&localinfosel=&kw=&inmap=&table=&ovtype=&zm=0&scale=1000000&out.x=6&out.y=7)
and Oban is in the left corner.
Coincidence?
Especially after
this thread. (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?s=&threadid=53851)
So, did Jambo's curse occur on the ninth?
Did this anger the Gods so that they are now sending a meteor towards Scotland? Are they going to miss by 50 miles?
Or does the person Jambos cursing live here AND THE CURSE HAS WORKED???

[Metullus]

Originally posted by Enid
Metullus does not exist.

Scientific fact.

Descartes was wrong? Damn Then all the years I've spent talking to myself have been wasted!

[juninho]

Originally posted by webfusion
McGuckin's sure gonna have one slight problem ---- where to spend her million with all the supermarkets closed forever.

I've always been puzzled by things like this. In the UK, there were plenty of people placing bets at the bookmakers that the world would come to an end at Midnight 2000. How on earth did they expect to pick up their winnings? Total and utter idiots.

[sophia8]

Originally posted by juninho
I've always been puzzled by things like this. In the UK, there were plenty of people placing bets at the bookmakers that the world would come to an end at Midnight 2000. How on earth did they expect to pick up their winnings? Total and utter idiots.
The website that was telling everyone about the end of the world in May 2003 (when the 10th planet hit us - come on, you must remember that!) was selling videos and books right up to the day of the catastrophe, and for at least a week afterwards. You'd have thought that maybe a couple of weeks before the event, the website would have announced it was closing down and all the organisers were getting ready to seal themselves in their survival bunkers.
But no, they carried on processing credit card orders for goods they wouldn't have been able to post out, for customers who would have been toast by the time the goods, telling them they were about to be toast, would have reached them anyway.

[Ashles]

Originally posted by juninho
I've always been puzzled by things like this. In the UK, there were plenty of people placing bets at the bookmakers that the world would come to an end at Midnight 2000. How on earth did they expect to pick up their winnings? Total and utter idiots.
Wow! Maybe I should set up an online betting site that only takes bets on the end of the world.

Any date - I'll give odds of 10,000 to one.

[IXP]

Originally posted by Ashles
Wow! Maybe I should set up an online betting site that only takes bets on the end of the world.

Any date - I'll give odds of 10,000 to one.

Too late, it's already been done. They call it life insurance. Think what they would have to pay out if the world ended tomorrrow!

IXP

[Ashles]

You've reminded me of those miserable adverts where they have an old person on TV talking to old viewers and making them feel guilty if they haven't aranged for their own funeral to be paid for.

"Are you old? Going to die soon? Haven't thought about funeral expenses? You are so selfish!
Give up what little money you have and forget about your own happiness for the few short years you have left and give all your money to our company.
Old people! You are so selfish! It'll probably be for the best when you snuff it! And your family sees you as nothing but a burden!
So just to recap - give us all your money, then die!"

In England these adverts are mostly enacted by June Whitfield.

[steenkh]

Originally posted by KRAMER

So the file will be open for 12 months and if either of those two towns are destroyed by asteroids within that time period, she wins the big bucks.

OK?

OK.
No, I do not think she should win the big bucks in that case. But I do think she should be deemed to have passed the preliminary test. The formal test would still have to be passed.

[webfusion]

There's another thread running simultaneously about the "Protocols and Revisions" which is discussing the passing of a prelim test and then what will be the protocol applicable for the main test to obtain the money.

steenkh touches upon this point here, and I wanted to comment (especially since it is also relevent to the applicant TC ALBIN, Weatherman, for instance).

When the demonstration is of such great magnitude, and refers to a specific one-time event, how can an individual go from being an "applicant" to a "claimant" when there is no next time (or a very long delay) to show the paranormal ability again?

Causing (or predicting) Snow in July, would be a time-related claim. The second test would have to be delayed until some future point, perhaps decades, for the claimant to produce the same results. By making an application of predicting asteroids or meteorites or shooting stars or whatever hitting Earth at a specific time or place, and they do indeed materialize, what are the protocols for the main test then? It might be another 1400 years before the next asteroid shower.

Just curious.

[KRAMER]

Originally posted by steenkh
No, I do not think she should win the big bucks in that case. But I do think she should be deemed to have passed the preliminary test. The formal test would still have to be passed.

Wow. Randi ought to fire me.

I guess I didn't give this claim much of my attention. I wonder why.