Calculating the Hits: Pope (likely to be) Dead in 2005.

[LostAngeles]

We all know that just about every year, some psychic, some where, via some method of communication predicts the death of Pope John Paul II or alternately just "The Pope." Currently, as of 1:10PM PST, Pope John Paul II's kidneys and other organs are failing. It seemse very likely that he'll pass soon.

If so, this gives the psychics a "hit" on their yearly predictions. However, since they tend to do it every year, wouldn't we count those against this hit.

Say, (and I'm not going to look this up) that our ol' fav' Sylvia Brown has predicted his demise every year since 2000, including this year. If the Pope dies, then she gets a "hit" for this year. However, she predicted it for six years running giving her a "score" of -5.

Likewise, Miss Cleo predicted it for 2004 and 2005 and the Pope dies, she gets a "score" of 0.

Darat (who we all know resigned to his discovery of his psychic powers which the JREF vehmently denies because they're lying evil negative biddies) predicted it for 2005 alone. He alone gets to count this as a hit.

Even if it doesn't work anyway like that, shouldn't it? I mean it's like predicting someplace in "The Ring of Fire" is going to have an earthquake. Or that a white man with a lawyerly education will be POTUS. It's bound to happen soon. Maybe not this year, but possibly within the next ten years. Misses on topic X should count against hits on topic X.

[Janice]

I think these kind of predictions are really not worth taking note of, it is just done to try and attract fame, and generally they just make themselves look stupid. If they could really foresee the future, they would be working for every government around the world, to try to stop wars and natural disasters.

The most important thing here is that the pope does not suffer too much, and he will be sadly missed by millions.

[DangerousBeliefs]

Picking a DATE is a hit.

Picking a year is fishing.

[AngrySteve]

Father Andrew Wingate was on a Coast 2 Coast last night, sticking to his guns, that some group of 'mystics' will come and save the Pope

and he said he will be forced to re-think his predictions if the Pope dies

One of his predictions is that China and Russia will join forces and invade the USA, within the next four years.

Anyone notice how jolly cheerful most of the predictions the psychics make are?

[pupdog]

In true professional psychic tradition, I predict the Pope will die Saturday, 2 April 2005.

[Flaherty]

What we ought to do is look at the life expectancy tables to check the probability of an 84 year old male surviving the year. I don't have them in front of me (they are at the office, or as we say in Florida: "oriface"). Let's say the chance is 50%. That's much too high to give anyone, psychic or not, credit for making an accurate prediction.