Solar panel sales may halt due to shortage of polysilicon

[jay gw]

MUNICH (Reuters) - Top solar power executives voiced fears on Wednesday that their industry's stellar growth over the past few years might stall due to a global shortage of polysilicon, the main component of solar cells.

Takashi Tomita of Japan's Sharp, the world's biggest solar-cell maker, warned of what he called a "vicious spiral" in which the market could grind to a halt as rocketing silicon prices meant suppliers could not afford to meet demand.

"I am very worried about it, because a shortage of polysilicon materials would lead to an increase in prices of polysilicon and could ultimately lead to a stagnation of the solar-cell market, said Tomita, chief of solar systems at Sharp.

The solar market currently supplies a fraction of 1 percent of the world's energy needs and is worth an estimated $7 billion annually. The industry may increase that proportion to 8 percent by 2030, according to the European Renewable Energy Council.

Given generous subsidies from some governments -- notably Japan and Germany, the world's two biggest producers of solar power -- demand has soared for the panels that harness energy from the sun to provide electricity without emitting carbon.

But prices for solar-grade silicon, which have leapt from around $9 per kilo in 2000 to $25 last year and $60 this month, are threatening to put the brakes on the annual growth rates of 30 to 40 percent the industry has seen since 1997.

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=technologyNews&storyID=8171706&src=rss/technologyNews

Oh boy. Not good news.

[Capsid]

Here in the UK, government grants for home installation of solar panels may be terminated by November 2005, as reported here

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4359305.stm

Not good news either.

[Drooper]

Originally posted by jay gw
Oh boy. Not good news.


You just can't win with you AGW fundies.

When demand for solar energy takes off you complain.:rolleyes:

[Rob Lister]

Originally posted by Drooper
You just can't win with you AGW fundies.

When demand for solar energy takes off you complain.:rolleyes:

:dl:

[Rob Lister]

Originally posted by jay gw

Oh boy. Not good news.

Don't worry about it. The shortage is due to sudden demand far outstripping current supply. It's not like the raw materials are in short supply. So, feel assured that by 2030 we will certainly reach that goal of solar providing us with 8% of our energy needs.

We'll, at least 8% of our daytime energy needs...On a nice day that's not to cold or warm...when the electricity goes out...everywhere at once.

[jay gw]

The shortage is due to sudden demand far outstripping current supply. It's not like the raw materials are in short supply.

Um....if the raw materials are plentiful, why has the price gone from 9 dollars to 60?

[pmurray]

Originally posted by Rob Lister
We'll, at least 8% of our daytime energy needs...On a nice day that's not to cold or warm...when the electricity goes out...everywhere at once.
What's the one thing that Australia has? Desert. My plan is to carpet the esert with solar cells, then use the energy to photosynthesise atmospheric carbon into hydrocarbons (a wonderfully transportable form of energy), and ship it to asia. We could all live rich as arabs for the next thousand years.

[Rob Lister]

Originally posted by jay gw
Um....if the raw materials are plentiful, why has the price gone from 9 dollars to 60?

Because polysilicon is not a raw material, it is a product manufactured from silicon, which is a raw material. Silicon is not in short supply (by any means). It is the current manufactoring capability that is in short supply (relative to demand). This creates a market nich. Said nich attacts investment capital. Investment capital creates manufactoring capability.

[Drooper]

Originally posted by jay gw
Um....if the raw materials are plentiful, why has the price gone from 9 dollars to 60?

Hang on. I think you need to go read a bit more.

The raw material of solar grade silicon is silicon (d'oh). Silicon is available in limitless quantities (we're pretty much talking sand here). So there is in fact no shortage of raw materials.

What we have is a temporary shortgage of manufacture and refining capacity for solar grade silicon.

Believe I or not, if you want the world to use solar energy this sudden price rise for solar grade silicon is a good thing. The higher price leads to short-term higher profits which leads to increased investment in refining capacity (and also new techlnology) which leads to increased supply, which leads to increased economies of scale, which along with improved technology brings lower prices in the long term and lower prices for solar cells.


This is a typical example of the type of reporting and thinking employed by AGW fundies and communicated to the general public. In short, very weak on logic and analysis, poorly informed and drawing alarmist and erroneous conclusions.

[jay gw]

It may not even matter if silicon is cheap or not.

Here's cost comparisons between traditional electricity and solar energy:

January through April there is little energy from solar panels, it's winter.

For the rest of the year, the cents per kilowatt hour for residential electricity is 8.5.

For solar it's 39.5.

It is 500 percent more expensive to use solar than traditional electricity.

Around 59% of world solar product sales installed the last five years were in applications that are tied to the electricity grid. Solar Energy prices in these applications are 5-20 times more expensive than the cheapest source of conventional electricity generation, although they may only be 3-5 times the electricity tariff that utility customers pay.

By contrast, PV can be fully cost competitive on economic grounds in remote (off-grid) industrial and habitational applications.

In a Sacramento, California home, it would cost around $16-$20,000 to satisfy around 25% of that homes energy needs.

(Wow. Roughly 18,000 dollars to get 25 percent of a house's energy needs. There's a reason why houses don't use solar.)

http://www.solarbuzz.com/SolarPrices.htm

[Drooper]

You've just realised this?

[jay gw]

Drooper: Which along with improved technology brings lower prices in the long term and lower prices for solar cells.

When's the "long term" exactly? 2150?

[Drooper]

Originally posted by jay gw
When's the "long term" exactly? 2150?

I'm not an expert in technology, but that seems a little too long term.

But the point is that when over time the technology will advance, the cost will come down and energy production will almost certainly migrate to solar (along with other alternatives). Just relax, stop trying to manipulate the climate and let it happen.