why do people believe in astrology?

[JMA]

A journalist from the belgium TV Chanel asked me (in the name of the belgium french skeptic organisation, the "Comité Para") for an interview in a scientific program about "belief in astrology".

They will be an astronomer who would debunk the astrology's principles, but the journalist also wants a sociologist or a psychologist (I'm a psychologist) who can explain "why do people believe in astrology?".

Well, I'm gonna talk about the Barnum effect for sure.

But what do you think I should say other than that?

[Ladewig]

-it allows people to blame their faults on something other than themselves.

-it's fun to feel exclusive; to feel you are part of a special group.

-it provides comfort to people who want to believe that the world is more ordered and structured than it is.

[The Don]

Please consider that I am not a psychologist but......

It seems to me that one thing that most people hate is uncertainty. The fact that there is no guarantee as to what the future holds is deeply unsettling. If Astrology was to work then the predictions it produces gives us some degree of certainty so you know that:

- You're going on a long journey at some time in the future
- You will meet a tall dark stranger

Also, the reading is likely to contain both bad and good news so that you have something good to look forward to, and the certainty that the bad times won't be too bad.

[Ashles]

People hate not being in control. Being in control of their lives, their environment, other people...

Astrology gives people the illusion of, if not control, at least perception of the future. It allows people the psychological comfort of knowledge of unknowable aspects of life. This is highly desirable.

Oviously there is also the Forer Effect (http://www.skepdic.com/forer.html) which reinforces their belief that astrology actually is relevent to them.

Also making decisions is difficult - so it is so much easier if we can let a 'higher power' do it for us. Worried about taking that new job? Let the stars decide for you. That way you now that, no matter how it actually turns out, you were always 'meant' to make that choice. It absolves you from having made a mistake.

Astrology can be useful in decision making with some people - faced with neutral advice we often pick the advice that agrees with what we are already leaning towards. However that also tends to deny people the responsibility of their own decisions.

The universe is a complex place. We want to understand the universe and if we hear explanations which are simple (like astrology - it's the planets effects) we will often grasp the easy and simple explanation instead of attempting to understand the real complexity of the universe.

To many people it doesn't matter if the explanation is wrong so long as they at least have one.

[Marquis de Carabas]

Don't neglect to point out that astrology's division of people into distinct groupings provides reinforcement for our pernicious belief that other human beings are easily classifiable based on superficial data. It provides a handy means of stereotyping.

[flume]

Originally posted by Ladewig -it provides comfort to people who want to believe that the world is more ordered and structured than it is. But at the same time, it provides comfort that 'there is more than meets the eye', so that when the current reality looks drab, we can think there are exterior forces which may bring positive changes which are not indicated by our current situations.

[flume]

Originally posted by Ladewig
-it allows people to blame their faults on something other than themselves. "Retrograde Mercury" is good for this. It's good for taking away blame from yourself, but also for providing hope that bad times are not permanent.

[c4ts]

Why do people believe in astrology?

People like to hear good things about themselves (even if they don't quite apply), and they like to think that good things will happen to them.

[Nex]

Originally posted by JMA
But what do you think I should say other than that?

"Ignorance is bliss."



Well, it applies... :D

[Garrette]

While I don't disagree with the earlier posts, I think they miss one very important point and subsequently risk alienating your listeners.

Another reason for belief is that they have no reason not to believe.

By this I mean that most people:

1) Have not been schooled in proper logic

2) Have not been educated on proper science

3) Have not been exposed in large measure to information debunking astrology

4) Due to the already mentioned Forer Effect have had their beliefs "confirmed"


I think focusing first on the fact that someone's belief may be based on a lack of information will allow you a better lead into discussing continued belief in the face of adverse evidence.

[flume]

Originally posted by Garrette
Another reason for belief is that they have no reason not to believe. Good post.
Also they may be in community of people who do believe. If they are in a large community of believers, they will not think to question. If they are in a small group of believers, even knowing that there are skeptics, the belief by their smaller community will support them in thinking their belief is reasonable.

[roger]

Originally posted by JMA
A journalist from the belgium TV Chanel asked me (in the name of the belgium french skeptic organisation, the "Comité Para") for an interview in a scientific program about "belief in astrology".

They will be an astronomer who would debunk the astrology's principles, but the journalist also wants a sociologist or a psychologist (I'm a psychologist) who can explain "why do people believe in astrology?".

Well, I'm gonna talk about the Barnum effect for sure.

But what do you think I should say other than that? I don't mean to be mean, but, you're the purported expert. All the posts below your's sound like good hypothesis, but, absent studies and cites, they are just speculation. You aren't advancing human knowledge if you get on camera and just say a bunch of stuff that hasn't been substantiated.

The Forer study cited by Ashes is a good example of what to talk about - it's scientificially verified. But a lot of the rest honestly sounds like armchair psychology to me.


That's probably a bit harshly written, but I've been on a 'verify your evidence' kick in my offline life lately, and it seems to have trickled into my post.

[Paul C. Anagnostopoulos]

---Even New Age woo-woos like to categorize people, and astrology hasn't become politically incorrect yet since you don't wear your sign on your skin.

~~ Paul

[ma1ic3]

Astrology has to be one of the stupidest beliefs I've come across. It wasn't until a few years ago that I realized that people actually took it seriously. I thought it was just something people got into for fun.

[The idea]

Originally posted by JMA
[...] the journalist also wants a sociologist or a psychologist (I'm a psychologist) who can explain "why do people believe in astrology?".

What do you consider to be evidence that someone actually believes in astrology? Are people making important decisions based purely on astrology?

Maybe people use astrology as a way of making random decisions on unimportant matters. Maybe a person who is already in favor of a particular choice uses astrological considerations to rationalize the choice.

[Lavie Enrose]

Originally posted by JMA
But what do you think I should say other than that?

You may wish to look into the work of Psychologist Bertram R. Forer for some ideas.

I met a person recently who not only believes in astrology she obsesses about her daily reading. I just cannot seem to get through to her that astrology is nonsense. It is sad to see how she lets her belief in astrology control her life.

[JMA]

Originally posted by roger
I don't mean to be mean, but, you're the purported expert. All the posts below your's sound like good hypothesis, but, absent studies and cites, they are just speculation. You aren't advancing human knowledge if you get on camera and just say a bunch of stuff that hasn't been substantiated.

Well, I tought of talking about researchs who found correlation between the locus of control of subjects and the belief in astrology... They has been a few study about that in the field of psychology of religion, and this correlation is substantiated... ;)

[Kiless]

I'd add that with the plethora of astrology readings advertised, books, little scrolls with yearly advice for the signs for sale at the newsagency, being on the radio every morning on the way to work, being shown as a part of morning TV chat shows, it's in pretty much every woman's magazine there is and some of the mainstream magazines that aren't particularly gender specific in terms of audience, it's in a section of every newspaper I've ever seen (usually next to the crosswords), it's part of every dating agency tick box list, it's a common dating question (so, what's your sign / are we compatible?) it pops up on news sites on the internet, the sigils are sold as necklaces and bracelet charms and everyone, EVERYONE, despite believing it or not, knows their sign.

Can't escape it. Therefore, tempted to believe in it... because how can all of these be all so wrong?? :rolleyes:

[CFLarsen]

Lots of good points, but:

Originally posted by Marquis de Carabas
Don't neglect to point out that astrology's division of people into distinct groupings provides reinforcement for our pernicious belief that other human beings are easily classifiable based on superficial data. It provides a handy means of stereotyping.

this is a very important one.

Here's how you can make your point clear:

<hr>
If you were to say on TV that blacks are poor business leaders, are particularly suicidal and have a tendency towards alcoholism, you would be heavily criticized. And justly so: Not only is there no evidence, it is also discriminating.

But if astrologers claim that people born in Pisces are poor business leaders, are particularly suicidal and have a tendency towards alcoholism, then there is no public outcry.

It underlines the fact that we can get away with almost anything, as long as we claim it is paranormal.

Why is superstition given a free ride?
<hr>

It is a brief example, it is easily understood and gets the message through.

[Ladewig]

Originally posted by JMA
who can explain why people believe in astrology?.


Because it has thousands of years of evidence.

[ducks for cover]

Well, I've heard people give that answer when providing reasons why they believe.

.. .... . .... .. . ... .. ...
OK here's a better reason: because they have no idea what precession of the equinoxes is.

[ma1ic3]

Great point Marquis de Carabas and great analogy CFLarson.

Originally posted by CFLarsen
It underlines the fact that we can get away with almost anything, as long as we claim it is paranormal.

Why is superstition given a free ride?


There is also one other reason why it is more tolerated than racial discrimination, which is a much larger one. Discrimination based on race has caused a ton of blood shed and led to slavery. Discrimination based on Astrology and other things that don't have anything to do with the supernatural, such as stereotypes baseds on clothing and music, haven't caused such huge problems before and are much more tolerated.

If people started killing other people because of their astrological sign, then people would start seeing it as ignorant like racism. People can more easily see what is wrong with a belief when it starts to only lead to things that they disagree with on an emotional level.

Off the top of my head, I can think of an exception though. People do still stereotype a lot based on nationality (think Canada and France), which has caused loads of violence in the past and isn't looked down upon as much as racism. This might be because a nation isn't composed of nations, but is composed of races. A nation that only had one type of music or clothing would probably act differently as well. There is probably a lot of other things to consider as well, but I dont' want to go on and on about it.

[Ladewig]

If you're trying to understand what astrology believers believe, you may find this site useful. http://www.bobmarksastrologer.com/skeptics.htm

[JMA]

The journalist want to do the Forer experiment.

Here is the plan:

They will be 12 peoples (university students), maybe more. We asked each one of them for their astrological sign before.

They'll come at the experiment. It'll be in a university auditorum. We'll give at each one of them a psychological description for their astrological sign. Then we asked them to rate the accuracy of the description.

After that, we'll reveal that it was exactly the same description for everyone...

That's the idea.

I have some worries, because we'll say it's an astrological description of their psychology. I'm wondering if, because we are at the university and because I'm a psychologist, they we'll be a tendency to say "no, it doesn't match my personality" because they we'll think we expect them to say that (after all, everybody knows that astrology is nonsense).

You see what I mean?

Forer did that otherwise. He did that with a fake psychological test. I didn't talk of astrology for he's experiment. I'm wondering if we shoudn't have plan to do the same thing...

What do you think?

[Ashles]

Originally posted by JMA
The journalist want to do the Forer experiment.

Here is the plan:

They will be 12 peoples (university students), maybe more. We asked each one of them for their astrological sign before.

They'll come at the experiment. It'll be in a university auditorum. We'll give at each one of them a psychological description for their astrological sign. Then we asked them to rate the accuracy of the description.

After that, we'll reveal that it was exactly the same description for everyone...

That's the idea.

I have some worries, because we'll say it's an astrological description of their psychology. I'm wondering if, because we are at the university and because I'm a psychologist, they we'll be a tendency to say "no, it doesn't match my personality" because they we'll think we expect them to say that (after all, everybody knows that astrology is nonsense).

You see what I mean?

Forer did that otherwise. He did that with a fake psychological test. I didn't talk of astrology for he's experiment. I'm wondering if we shoudn't have plan to do the same thing...

What do you think?
I think you should cut out 12 horoscopes from some paper or magazine, remove the star sign for each one, photocopy them and give all 12 to each student and ask them which one fits them best. That way it doesn't matter what they think of astrolgy either way.

Or, as a more psychologically interesting experiment, write 12 horoscopes yourself in the usual style, but vary them from quite negative to quite positive, and ask the students to pick which one applies to them. My money would be on the ones that are near to being the most complimentary, but not the actual most positive ones. People want to hear they are pretty much great, but recognise they have the odd flaw here and there.
Although they will be "Job Interview" type flaws - eg. too hard on yourself, don't trust easily etc.
Negative, but a bit positive too.

[Bearguin]

Go pick up 12 different papers that include horoscopes.

Compare all 12 Aries, 12 Gemini etc. looking for consistencies from one paper to another.

It stuns me that people can say they believe this when even the writes don't agree.

[Bearguin]

For example. Aries for today.

One site (http://horoscopes.astrology.com/dailyaries.html?ice=ast,scopes,cmari)
After lots of emotional upheaval, your holiday is here. Apparently, you've been good so far this year -- because Santa is coming early. Don't forget to leave the cookies out.

Second site (http://my.horoscope.com/gethoroscope.asp?day=24&month=5&year=2005&sign=1)
Circumstances will be very unusual with your finances or the money matters of someone to whom you are close. Handle any joint financial ventures with kid gloves. This is not the time to criticize what others do.

So, which is it? Do I get a holiday and something from Santa or do I need to make sure my wife isn't spending money foolishly?

Oh, wiat. My wife is spending money foolishly by buyin me a gift! And I can't criticize her for it.

[RSLancastr]

Why do people believe in astrology?

Well, that depends on their sign.

I, for example, am an Aquarius. We never believe believe in astrology.

:)

I think that people who sriously believe in astrology do so for many of the same reasons why people believe in any religion.

[thaiboxerken]

Well, according to the "real" astroligist from the link Ladewig posted, "real" astrology doesn't use the 12 signs...

[Ashles]

Originally posted by RSLancastr
Why do people believe in astrology?

Well, that depends on their sign.

I, for example, am an Aquarius. We never believe believe in astrology.

:)
That's my gag you swine! [shakes fist at sky for some reason]

Ironically I am actually an Aquarian and they are supposed to be sceptical (oh the ground shaking irony...)

[RichardR]

As well as the Forer Effect already noted, there is Confirmation Bias. (http://skepdic.com/confirmbias.html)

[arthwollipot]

Originally posted by Bearguin
For example. Aries for today.

...

So, which is it? Do I get a holiday and something from Santa or do I need to make sure my wife isn't spending money foolishly?

Oh, wiat. My wife is spending money foolishly by buyin me a gift! And I can't criticize her for it.

Try my friend's Ultimate Conglomerate Super-Foolproof Horoscope (http://www.curufea.com/scope.php)

[wbeaty]

Originally posted by Ashles
People hate not being in control. Being in control of their lives, their environment, other people...

"People?" Heh. Try: "WE HUMANS hate not being in control, etc.

But in some circumstances there's no need to assume that astrology-believers are mentally defective or inferior. I myself grew up believing in astrology ...but only because my parents did.

Ours was a New-Ager family. We kids learned to believe in astrology in the same way we learned to believe in the government and other mysterious unseen "forces" of the adult world. It wasn't until I was off on my own that I *ever* met anyone who was strongly skeptical, yet also knew how to think. (Of course I'd met virulent scoffers who were hostile and arrogant in their badmouthing of astrology, but they had a very obvious emotional bias, and so were totally untrustworthy to render any opinion.)

What finally turned me skeptical? Attempts at astrological "proof!" Studies by astrology-supporters showed that newspaper horoscopes were total garbage, but that certain features of more advanced horoscopes actually worked. But then later studies showed that even the first results were questionable. But in my mind, seeing astrology-supporters disproving the newspaper horoscopes was the crack that shattered my belief. If newspaper horoscopes were questionable, yet they were supported only by widespread ignorance, why then why not question EVERYTHING about it?

The final blow was when I heard about Barnum effect. After all, newspaper horoscopes actually work, and until hearing about Barnum effect I had no good explanation for why the horoscopes seemed "accurate."

The moral, at least in my own case: people with concealed (or unconcealed) hatred of 'paranormal stuff" have little hope of persuading a Believer. It takes a pro-paranormal investigator, or at lease a calm, openminded, impartial person to do the job, such as a Sagan or a Shermer. Sneering or ridicule reveals conflicts of interest. Skeptics who try to substitute a "belly laugh" for the required "thousand syllogisms" will be rejected by an openminded, teachable Believer.

[JMA]

I just came back for TV show shooting. It went well and it was fun ;)

Thank you all for your opinions about belief in astrology. It was really interresting to read it.

We did the replication of the Forer experiment with 14 subjects. The result was 6.01/10 (0 = "The profile don't fit me at all" vs. "The profile fit me perfectly").

Forer had usually 8.4, so it's less than him, but well my idea is it's because we told the subjets it was astrological profiles, so the belief in astrology of the subjects has an influence on his answers.

In fact, we didn't have enough subject, so we took 2 university students walking by and both of them put 1/10 :( So the level of education must be playing too...

But in the end, it was a pretty good experience. When I told the people it was exactly the same profile for everyone, those who believe in astrology were really amazed :p

I think it'll be a good TV show, even if it's for a small TV chanel of a littel country, aka belgium:D

[Ashles]

Originally posted by JMA
In fact, we didn't have enough subject, so we took 2 university students walking by and both of them put 1/10 :( So the level of education must be playing too...
That strikes me as a bit unfair of them. I find it hard to belive that they genuinely felt that description didn't fit them at all. And that they both felt that equally.
I suspect that, knowing it was about astrology, they would have put 1/10 no matter what it had said.
If so then, rather unfortunately, they slightly undermined they very point they might have been trying to make.

But overall sounds like a great experience and a superb demonstration. Great work JMA.

[Yahweh]

Originally posted by Bearguin
Go pick up 12 different papers that include horoscopes.

Compare all 12 Aries, 12 Gemini etc. looking for consistencies from one paper to another.

It stuns me that people can say they believe this when even the writes don't agree.
So horoscope writers will validate astrology when they copy from each others newspapers? *skepticism falls to pieces on the floor*

:D

[RSLancastr]

Originally posted by Ashles
Ironically I am actually an Aquarian and they are supposed to be sceptical (oh the ground shaking irony...) Thus, with our statistical sample size of two, we have conclusively proven the validity of Astrology.

[Vikram]

Originally posted by RSLancastr
Thus, with our statistical sample size of two, we have conclusively proven the validity of Astrology.
Make that three!

Let's get out the champagne! This is a science-altering event.