Help with a thesis?

[slingblade]

Howdy, folks,

If this question is in the wrong place, I'd appreciate direction to the better category, thanks. I simply am not sure where to post this, and the education category seemed like a good choice.

I'm starting my senior thesis for my BA in English, and I'm dying to write a paper regarding Heinlein and sociology. Ever since reading the 1959 work Starship Troopers and discovering RAH's amazing prediction regarding the 1980s and school violence, I've wanted to write a paper about his predictive sociological acumen.

But I'm having trouble framing my thesis--it's broad and vague and needs sharpening. It's also a bit boring, really.

I want to state and prove the following:

"Science fiction writers have long been known for both predicting the future course of scientific endeavor and discovery, and for 'inventing on paper' many of the devices we use today, such as Heinlein's Waldoes, and the waterbed. But Heinlein also had an incredible ability to predict future social trends that, in large part, have come to pass, or seem likely to do so, very nearly as predicted."

And there, I get stuck. The statements seem to scream "so what?"

My prof wanted me to focus instead on Heinlein's feminism, but I find that's already been done pretty well in "Almost a Feminist," and I want my paper to cover not just his feminism, but all or most of his other sociological predictions and observations, like polyamory, religion, government, and so forth.

Can anyone please help me with suggestions on how to better focus my thesis and find my "so what?" Or else give an opinion on whether my current thesis would be acceptable as stated?
This is a 20-page paper, and I'm sure I have enough material to cover that, and more, but still, the thesis seems weak.

I don't want anyone to restate my thesis or create one for me, as I feel that would be cheating. But I need some help.

Thanking you in advance for any help you can offer!

[Kiless]

Originally posted by slingblade
"Science fiction writers have long been known for both predicting the future course of scientific endeavor and discovery, and for 'inventing on paper' many of the devices we use today, such as Heinlein's Waldoes, and the waterbed. But Heinlein also had an incredible ability to predict future social trends that, in large part, have come to pass, or seem likely to do so, very nearly as predicted."

'An incredible ability to predict future social trends'???

Nup.

I think you can say that Heinlein perhaps researched current trends (during his time!) and from those he created stories about what the likely future outlook of what the world could become (can you find such works? Got a biography or autobiography that cites some of his influences?).... or that he wrote speculative fiction... but the way you've phrased it smacks of reverse engineering. How much did of what he wrote about DIDN'T come true in today's world?

Especially (erm...) 'Friday'? ;)

(Yeah, I also got a B.A, English / Philosophy)

(edited for more content)

[Darat]

Originally posted by slingblade
...snip...

I want to state and prove the following:

"Science fiction writers have long been known for both predicting the future course of scientific endeavor and discovery, and for 'inventing on paper' many of the devices we use today, such as Heinlein's Waldoes, and the waterbed. But Heinlein also had an incredible ability to predict future social trends that, in large part, have come to pass, or seem likely to do so, very nearly as predicted."


...snip...

Aren't you going about this the wrong way round? Shouldn’t you first seek the evidence and then see if your statement matches that evidence?

I presume what you need to do is create a robust definition of what a “social prediction� in a story is, then apply that consistently to all of Heinlein’s work to extract all the predictions he made.

Once you’ve done that you need to then check his predictions against the predictions commonly being made when he wrote the story. Hopefully after that you will be left with a list that contains unique “Heinlein predictions�. (However given the close nature of the science-fiction community of that time I would also say you would need to consider was he using a “prediction� from another science fiction author or editor in the field or even a fan rather then something uniquely his.) Then you need to create a scoring scheme that allows you to as objectively as possible score his prediction against what actually came to pass.

You would also need to do the same exercise with many of his contemporary (and comparable) science fiction authors , after all it could just be that Heinlein is for whatever reason better known today then some other authors that were equally as good (or even better) at making predictions then he was.

Then you could compare Heinlein with his peers to determine if he did in fact stand out as someone with an incredible ability to predict future social trends.

Seems a massive undertaking!


As a purely personal comment, apart from a couple of technical ideas Heinlein never struck me as a particularly good predictor of the future.

[slingblade]

Posted by Darat
Aren't you going about this the wrong way round? Shouldn’t you first seek the evidence and then see if your statement matches that evidence?

Maybe. I'm not sure. I think I've done what you suggest, but maybe I'm looking at it wonky. I mean, I've read many of his works, though not all, and many times he has hit nails on the head, like "The Crazy Years" of the 1960s, especially in Stranger, and the aforementioned school violence of Troopers. Also, see my sig lines, and RAH's statement about religion and politics, highly applicable to current trends in America today. That's where the idea for the paper came from: reading stuff written in the 40s and 50s and saying, "wow, how'd he figure that out? How'd he get that so right, even to the very decade?" I'm not trying to prove he was always right, but that he was right a surprising number of times. Also, I want to explore how he may have been able to do that, to be that right.

I presume what you need to do is create a robust definition of what a “social prediction� in a story is, then apply that consistently to all of Heinlein’s work to extract all the predictions he made.

Applying it to all of his work would be ideal, but I am not required by my supervising professor to use all of his works, and the paper isn't nearly long enough, page-wise, to do that. I can't write more than 20 pages. While I must cover more than one work, I simply can't cover them all in Heinlein's case. There's just too much, so I have to be selective. This isn't my dictum, but my prof's. When we discussed the feminism thesis, he chose five books for me to cite from, and said "of course, you can find this in nearly all of his works, but you can't possibly cover them all in one paper. Just do these five." So.

Also, I don't have to prove what the thesis doesn't state, but what it does. But I agree it isn't well-worded or very focused--that's why I hollered help! :)

However, the idea of defining a "social prediction" is a very good one! I can see now that's where a lot of the vagueness lies in my stated thesis.

You would also need to do the same exercise with many of his contemporary (and comparable) science fiction authors , after all it could just be that Heinlein is for whatever reason better known today then some other authors that were equally as good (or even better) at making predictions then he was.

Then you could compare Heinlein with his peers to determine if he did in fact stand out as someone with an incredible ability to predict future social trends.

Seems a massive undertaking!

Yeah. Sigh. I tend to take on such big projects, but so far, I've done all right with them.

I'm not sure about the compare/contrast you suggest, however. That is, this paper is supposed to concentrate on one author. I'll have to ask my prof if I can or should do a C/C, or stick to analyzing one author and his works, bearing in mind the limitations I'm under as to the massiveness of the entire body.

One such author would be Phil K. Dick, especially his Minority Report and the future crime squad, which also seems to be a growing trend in American society--trying to prevent crime in advance of it occuring, rather than to punish it after it happens.

But it may be moot, if I'm only allowed to analyze one author. I'll ask.

posted by Kiless
I think you can say that Heinlein perhaps researched current trends (during his time!) and from those he created stories about what the likely future outlook of what the world could become....How much did of what he wrote about DIDN'T come true in today's world?


But that's prediction. I mean, to predict isn't always a woo-woo activity.

Webster's says:
Predict: transitive verb: to declare or indicate in advance; especially: foretell on the basis of observation, experience, or scientific reason. (empahsis mine)

So I think I have the right word. "Project" might be more to some folk's liking, but isn't that just semantics? However, I think you may be saying that he didn't write these things AS predictions, or wasn't trying to foretell the future, but rather was merely speculating on what might happen, given what he knew in his time. What I want to highlight is how many times, and with how much accuracy, he turned out to be correct.

As to what he wrote which didn't come true, since that's not the goal of my thesis, I don't necessarily have to go there, for this paper. But I think it might be a good idea to use some of those things, as contrast. I should put in a qualifier, though, to the effect that while he predicted or projected many things, not all of them came about. Then, give examples.

Thanks to both of you. I have to fully digest what you've suggested, but I can see it will all be very helpful, and I sure appreciate it!

[Darat]

Originally posted by slingblade

...snip...


I'm not sure about the compare/contrast you suggest, however. That is, this paper is supposed to concentrate on one author. I'll have to ask my prof if I can or should do a C/C, or stick to analyzing one author and his works, bearing in mind the limitations I'm under as to the massiveness of the entire body.

One such author would be Phil K. Dick, especially his Minority Report and the future crime squad, which also seems to be a growing trend in American society--trying to prevent crime in advance of it occuring, rather than to punish it after it happens.

But it may be moot, if I'm only allowed to analyze one author. I'll ask.

...snip...


I was suggesting the comparison not so much to use but to as way to determine if Heinlein did have an incredible ability compared to other similar authors. It could be that he was no better or no worse then many other authors. Also he was a fairly prolific writer and it could just be that he made a lot of predictions and only a tiny handful were "on the mark".

Perhaps rather then your current opening statement you can start with a more manageable statement, in terms of supporting it such as:

"Science fiction writers have long had a reputation for predicting the future course of scientific endeavour and discovery, for 'inventing on paper' many of the devices we use today, from highly technical ideas such as Heinlein's Waldoes to the waterbed. But Heinlein also made many social predictions within his stories some of which have, in large part, come to pass or seem to be on the verge of doing so.�

What you could then do is pick a subset of his work and try to show how it was possible for an intelligent and well educated person of his time to make these seemingly accurate predictions.

Or and I think this is probably more relevant for and English paper you could attempt to show how he used his fiction to develop his ideas (predictions) over a period of decades.

It may mean not being able to use one of your favourites (e.g. Starship Trooper). My suggestion would be to use his “future history� series which spanned his writing career and are normally given as:

Methuselah's Children, The Man Who Sold the Moon, The Green Hills of Earth, Revolt in 2100, Orphans of the Sky, The Past Through Tomorrow, Time Enough for Love

Using those you could show how the events in the real world moulded and influenced his thinking and therefore the books and stories he wrote, I think that would give your idea somewhat more of a “so what?�.

And your opening statement becomes something like:

"Science fiction writers have long had a reputation for predicting the future course of scientific endeavour and discovery, for 'inventing on paper' many of the devices we use today, from highly technical ideas such as Heinlein's Waldoes to the waterbed. Yet less widely appreciated is that many of the authors who started to write in the 40s and 50s also made bold social predictions and wove these into their stories. A master of this social exposition was Heinlein, who over a long writing career made many startlingly accurate predictions of future trends. By examining a number of his novels over a 40 year period it is possible to gain an understanding of how he achieved his social predictions.�

(I know the above is very clumsy – but hey I’m not an English BA student!)

[Kiless]

Originally posted by Darat
"Science fiction writers have long had a reputation for predicting the future course of scientific endeavour and discovery, for 'inventing on paper' many of the devices we use today, from highly technical ideas such as Heinlein's Waldoes to the waterbed. Yet less widely appreciated is that many of the authors who started to write in the 40s and 50s also made bold social predictions and wove these into their stories. A master of this social exposition was Heinlein, who over a long writing career made many startlingly accurate predictions of future trends. By examining a number of his novels over a 40 year period it is possible to gain an understanding of how he achieved his social predictions.�

(I know the above is very clumsy – but hey I’m not an English BA student!)

No, Darat, that was great. :) And it does sound like a fun subject overall, albeit a pity it's only 20 pages!

[slingblade]

Originally posted by Darat

Methuselah's Children, The Man Who Sold the Moon, The Green Hills of Earth, Revolt in 2100, Orphans of the Sky, The Past Through Tomorrow, Time Enough for Love

Oh! :) Except for Revolt, those are the books I was to use for the feminism thesis! I was also going to add To Sail Beyond the Sunset, with which my prof was unfamiliar.

Using those you could show how the events in the real world moulded and influenced his thinking and therefore the books and stories he wrote, I think that would give your idea somewhat more of a “so what?�.

And your opening statement becomes something like:

"Science fiction writers have long had a reputation for predicting the future course of scientific endeavour and discovery, for 'inventing on paper' many of the devices we use today, from highly technical ideas such as Heinlein's Waldoes to the waterbed. Yet less widely appreciated is that many of the authors who started to write in the 40s and 50s also made bold social predictions and wove these into their stories. A master of this social exposition was Heinlein, who over a long writing career made many startlingly accurate predictions of future trends. By examining a number of his novels over a 40 year period it is possible to gain an understanding of how he achieved his social predictions.�

(I know the above is very clumsy – but hey I’m not an English BA student!)

Wow. Double wow. Yes, I'd reword that somewhat, but overall, THAT'S what I've been trying to say! That's my point, expressed very well indeed. :clap:

Oh, thanks so very much! I can see now where I went astray, and how better to focus the thesis now. (And it's not "very clumsy," really. It needs fine-tuning, but it's very, very good.)

Man, I'm in awe. You've been of considerable and impressive help on this issue. Thankyouthankyouthankyou! I can't wait to get started on this now. If you were here where I am, I'd buy you a drink, and a steak, and maybe even some flowers!

[ceo_esq]

Darat, I have to hand it to you - that was well done!