Saddam's real plan

[jj]

I think it's clear now. He intended to disappear, and sent his troops all home to stay safe and healty, except for those he didn't trust in the first place.

What he figures on doing, if he did indeed survive, is just showing up, telling his troops to pick up the guns, and take over again after we leave.

And I don't see us being very smart about that. A powerplant here, a water plant there, and we have a full-scale revolt on our hands, never mind we had nothing to do with it.

[Gem]

It's possible... but if his hero was Stalin, then he probably read "The Prince" by Michioveli.

"The Prince" is like a "how to keep power for dummies" type book. It gives you advise on how to keep power once you get it (but not how to get it, dang!). One of the advice is when you're under attack, fleeing and hoping that the people will cheer you back as a "liberator." It's not a good idea, always fight it out.

So the real plan could be stagnate diplomacy, drag it out for as long as possible. If the US doesn't give a damn about diplo (which they did), the Army comes into play. He put most of his army in the north (to keep down the kurds and possibly against the infamous "northern front." To keep forces in the south would mean international humiliation at the sight of his troops surrednering. He kept his republican guard at baghdad (not "elite," but "well paid and loyal"). What was really hard to swallow was how they gave up SO fast. Probably the bombing, desertion and a 120 mm shell from an Abram tank:D

If he's still alive and safe (likely syria, Iran has some bad blood with him (iraq-iran war)), his bet is guerrila warfare on civilian infrastructure and blaming it on the US. THen when the Americans leave (I beleive they will never leave Iraq, Iraq is a strategic location in the middles east), he pops back up. A little power struggle, but he can handle it. Then if you want to make a movie about his return, call it " saddam: the terminator"

Gem

[Kashyapa]

In my paranoid moments, I've wondered if Saddam is going to lead a giant, bloody, 5th column sort of insurrection once we've gotten all settled down and fat and happy. What a way to get a victory- and the man's just enough of a megalomaniac, and just enough of a cockroach (nasty being who survives real well) that he'd try it. What a coup.

I don't want it to happen, as it's good young American kids over there who'd get the shaft, but it would be a damn elegant and evil plan, and it makes sense in a sickening sort of way. That promised "unconventional" attack hasn't materialized yet....

[a_unique_person]

He's not that capable, and he commanded no loyalty.

Now that he is gone, he is never coming back.

The worst that could happen now for the US is Muslim extremists, or people are are just as p**d off at the US as with Saddam, start making use of the mountains of weapons he has left lying around the place.

Already, the US is not looking to good in the public relations stakes, according to some reports. And if they delay elections by 5 years and install four or more military bases, they would be even less popular. "We have come to bring you democracy, when we think you will vote the way we want" appears to be the line.



US unpopularity

The situation is very tense as the marines are holding a meeting with tribal elders.

Marines have physically threatened reporters who try to get close to the meeting.

Across many cities in the highly-populated centre and east of Iraq, between the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, the message to the Americans has been the same - now you have got rid of Saddam, you too should leave.

Two days ago, in Diwaniyah, at least two people were shot in riots which followed an attempt by marines to impose a leader.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/2960395.stm

Put it this way, if in five years time, and the US is still running the place, Saddam did manage to stage a comback and boot them out, he would be thanked, and asked to leave.