Say a goose flies up to me...

[Diamond]

...and sneezes right in my face.

What are my chances of catching avian flu? What are my chances of dying from avian flu? Since health conditions are so much better and the population density is less in Europe compared to South East Asia, why if there's no mass die off of people there, does it mean that we're given the full scare treatment over here? (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/4350638.stm)

My solution to the bird flu crisis is simple. Ten million small blankets and 100 million tiny doses of Lemsip.

Thank you.

[Atlas]

...and sneezes right in my face.

What are my chances of catching avian flu? What are my chances of dying from avian flu? ...Goose sneezes will pass along the virus especially if they haven't wiped their nose since their last sneeze.

As far as dying... pretty good, actually - especially if you're the type who would ring it's neck and make a goose dinner of it. That is, I've heard that most, if not all, people who have died ingested bird flesh.

So cooking does not necessarily offer you protection.

[drkitten]

...and sneezes right in my face.
What are my chances of catching avian flu?


Fairly low. Almost zero, in fact. First, because there aren't a lot of geese with avian flu in the British Isles, and second, because the virus does not easily transfer itself to humans.

Both of those facts, however, are subject to change -- and are expected to change, possibly very suddenly, and possibly within a surprisingly short period of time.

That's the problem. It's like holding onto a hand grenade and asking "what are the chances of it blowing up?" Almost none, as long as Mr. Pin stays put.

What are my chances of dying from avian flu?


If you aren't exposed to it, zero. If you are exposed to it, but do not catch it, zero. If you catch it, the numbers look like somewhere between twenty and fifty percent.

How long are you willing to bet that Mr. Pin stays put?

[Atlas]

It seems we have some disagreement brewing. Who ya gonna believe? Some guy who knows about geese from steppin in their crap while walkin along the river or some doctor who wants to talk 'bout hand grenades?

[Diamond]

It seems we have some disagreement brewing. Who ya gonna believe? Some guy who knows about geese from steppin in their crap while walkin along the river or some doctor who wants to talk 'bout hand grenades?

Is this a trick question?

The problem is that the dread march of this disease from Asia to Eastern Europe and ever westwards is being treated as if it were the Bubonic Plague. What can people do? Shoot every bird in the sky?

Is it worth panicking people over a theoretical threat of virus mutation that no-one can possibly predict with any certainty will happen?

[ceptimus]

If and when the virus mutates into a form easily transmitted between humans, then those humans who survive the pandemic will have good reason to thank the current 'scaremongers'.

However, if the virus never makes that jump, then the scaremongers can be critisized for causing unnecessary panic and waste of funds.

Given the huge asymettry in the possible outcomes, my sympathies are with the scaremongers. Go scaremongers! Make those politicians do at least some preparation.

[Luke T.]

I believe the great flu pandemic (Spanish Flu) of 1918- 1919 that killed more people than The Great War was an avian flu.

[Luke T.]

Achoo!

[casebro]

(snip) If you catch it, the numbers look like somewhere between twenty and fifty percent.




No. Shouldn't this read " If you have such a bad case that you need hospialisation, then the death rate is 20-50%."

We, the public, have no knowledge of the slighter cases. I doubt the authorities do either. The effects of all diseases vary amoungst people. How many folks caught it, and had no more illness than a common cold? As a frinstance, the Spanish flu of 1918 killed about 675,000 Americans, about 1 percent? Maybe I'll ggogle percent by country?

EDIT to add:

Spanish Flu specs:

In the US, 28% caught it, 2.5% of those died.

The world as a whole had 1.8 billion people, 20% caught it, 20 million died, about 1% of the total.

Humidy seemed to play a major role, bigger toll in humid places.


I guess 1% seems significant to folks who buy lottery tickets that have a one in 20,000,000 chance of winning.....

[Diamond]

I believe the great flu pandemic (Spanish Flu) of 1918- 1919 that killed more people than The Great War was an avian flu.

That's true or at least superficially. The flu epidemic appeared to be spread far and wide by migratory birds.

But its virulence was apparent everywhere, not suddenly when it appeared in Europe or the US. Where is the SE Asian pandemic?

There are quicker means of moving the disease - like aeroplanes. Yet strangely this vector is not discussed.

[Dymanic]

Spanish Flu specs:

In the US, 28% caught it, 2.5% of those died.
Projected deaths from avian flu assuming the same rates of attack and mortality:

Current U.S. population: 297,447,451

297,447,451 x .28 = 83,285,286

83,285,286 x .025 = 2,082,132


The world as a whole had 1.8 billion people, 20% caught it, 20 million died, about 1% of the total.

Current world population: 6,473,325,393

1% of that is 64,733,253. PEOPLE. That's more than died in World War II.

[Zep]

As long as they are the "appropriate" people who die*, it could be worth it... Who wants to be on the Selection Committee??


[runs away swftly]


*TV evangelist scammers, homeopathists, anti-vaxxers, Uri Geller, etc.

[Capsid]

There are quicker means of moving the disease - like aeroplanes. Yet strangely this vector is not discussed.
Movement of people will be restricted if a pandemic occurs. Schools will be closed, airports will be closed etc. I think staying at home would be the best course of action.

[SezMe]

Capsid, given the immense power and economic leverage of multinational corporations, do you really think international travel will be halted? Remember, not only airplanes but ships could be vectors. Will international trade between the Far East and the USA (for only one example) be halted. I think not...unless it gets so bad that the damage (deaths in the 10s of millions) will have already occurred.

Of course, individually staying at home is the best course of action. The same cannot necessarily be said to be true at the national level. There, one has to trade off individual flu deaths against MASSIVE economic dislocation and the inevitable deaths attendant thereto.

I can see no simple answers to some very complex questions.

[Capsid]

Capsid, given the immense power and economic leverage of multinational corporations, do you really think international travel will be halted? Remember, not only airplanes but ships could be vectors. Will international trade between the Far East and the USA (for only one example) be halted. I think not...unless it gets so bad that the damage (deaths in the 10s of millions) will have already occurred.

Of course, individually staying at home is the best course of action. The same cannot necessarily be said to be true at the national level. There, one has to trade off individual flu deaths against MASSIVE economic dislocation and the inevitable deaths attendant thereto.

I can see no simple answers to some very complex questions.
Well, I said restricted not halted. Agreed it is complex. It might come down to individual choice. I would stay at home.

[drkitten]

But its virulence was apparent everywhere, not suddenly when it appeared in Europe or the US. Where is the SE Asian pandemic?

Not happening yet. The current version of avian flu has not yet mutated into a typically virulent form.

The problem is, when -- and it's when, not if, given influenza's known mutation rates -- the mutation occurs, the virulence will immediately be apparent in SE Asia, and at that time the UK will be something like two months from epidemic, according to the WHO's predictions.

If you think you can design, fund, support, and implement a national-level epidemic response for a disease as virulent as the flu with such a high death rate in only two months, then by all means, don't do anything yet. If you think that prepping for such an event might take more than two months lead time, then the time to start planning is now, before the mutation occurs.

[Bowser]

I've heard that most, if not all, people who have died ingested bird flesh. So cooking does not necessarily offer you protection.No, cooking the meat thoroughly will protect you, provided you have been diligent in how you handled the uncooked meat. The types of precautions we should already be following in our kitchens, but we'll need to be more diligent about.

http://www.cbc.ca/cp/world/050720/w072069.html

[Mercutio]

So, we've covered sneezing and cooking.

What I'm worried about are all those people out having unprotected sex with geese.

[Bowser]

That's true or at least superficially. The flu epidemic appeared to be spread far and wide by migratory birds. But its virulence was apparent everywhere, not suddenly when it appeared in Europe or the US. Where is the SE Asian pandemic? There are quicker means of moving the disease - like aeroplanes. Yet strangely this vector is not discussed.The pandemic is currently limited to the wild bird populations, and it is moving rapidly westward through Eurasia.

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_Map_2005_QinghaiL.html

Airplanes will be an issue, but not until h5n1 is more easily transmitted between humans. Airports in the US are already setting up quarantine stations.

[Badly Shaved Monkey]

So, we've covered sneezing and cooking.

What I'm worried about are all those people out having unprotected sex with geese.

When the disease hits Alabama there wil be problems. You could have a situation where a man brings the disease home to his wife and sister...




and she catches it as well.

[Badly Shaved Monkey]

...and sneezes right in my face.

Harry Hill (http://www.harryhill.co.uk/) envisaged meeting an angry goose and gave some clear advice; "Twist off the beak and karate chop to the neck". I think this is something we should all bear in mind.

[Doubt]

So, we've covered sneezing and cooking.

What I'm worried about are all those people out having unprotected sex with geese.

Are we sure we should only worry about geese?

I mean, what about ducks. The AFLAC duck already sounds sick to me.

We could need a new catch phrase. “Don’t **ck that duck?”

[MRC_Hans]

No. Shouldn't this read " If you have such a bad case that you need hospialisation, then the death rate is 20-50%."

*snip*.Important point. At this time, we only know the outcome of cases that were serious enough to catch attention in the first place. Also, we don't know how the mutated, human to human transmittable version will be.

However, as also mentioned, even 1% mortality in a given population is appalling for a highly contagious disease. It will mean a death toll that will make all other disasters and even major wars pale in comparison. Here at the JREF, it will mean we loose 58 memebers.

Hans

[Stitch]

So, we've covered sneezing and cooking.

What I'm worried about are all those people out having unprotected sex with geese.

I'm more worried that you even considered this, never mind that it worries you :D

[Dymanic]

Of course, individually staying at home is the best course of action. The same cannot necessarily be said to be true at the national level.
Individually, grazing one's stock on the commons is the best course of action. The same cannot necessarily be said to be true at the village level. Whether it's good for the economy or not, if an H2H transmissible strain starts sweeping across the country, it's likely to occur to a whole bunch of people that calling in sick might be a good way to avoid getting sick.

[Dymanic]

Important point. At this time, we only know the outcome of cases that were serious enough to catch attention in the first place.
Important point: this assumes that there were less serious cases. In a typical flu season, there are lots of mild cases. That's because lots of folks get infected with a strain that is just a slight variation on a strain their immune systems successfully fought off in some earlier year. The effects vary amongst people primarily because different people have had exposure to different strains. But H5N1 isn't just a variant on an earlier flu; it's a whole new subtype. NOBODY has any resistance to it.

[casebro]

Important point: this assumes that there were less serious cases. In a typical flu season, there are lots of mild cases. That's because lots of folks get infected with a strain that is just a slight variation on a strain their immune systems successfully fought off in some earlier year. The effects vary amongst people primarily because different people have had exposure to different strains. But H5N1 isn't just a variant on an earlier flu; it's a whole new subtype. NOBODY has any resistance to it.

ALL epidemics have some mild cases- even small pox didn't kill off ALL of the Amerinds.

But don't we have some resistance to the N1 of the species? Chickens won't, they only live a couple years, so lose their herd immunity. Humans live 75 years, and so retain some immunity from all those years of exposure to all those different strains.

So far, after millions of years of evolution, there has not been a disease that killed off ALL of the humans.

Seems like, before the WHO continues this crusade against a possible pandemic, they ought to develope an exposure test. Like the TB scratch test, look for folk in the Chinese poultry industry who have been exposed, and survived without medical treatment. That would give a realistic estimate of virulence.

[Dymanic]

ALL epidemics have some mild cases- even small pox didn't kill off ALL of the Amerinds.

That's true. But "mild" and "non-fatal" aren't quite the same thing. I'd venture to guess that among the Amerinds that actually contracted the disease, there was an extremely high rate of fatality, and among the survivors, very few who didn't get extremely ill.

But don't we have some resistance to the N1 of the species?
Maybe so, but it probably won't help much. Immunologic response to NA appears to be partly suppressed in favour of the more frequently mutating HA antigen. This is why vaccine designers tend to focus almost exclusively on HA.