Mad Cow Disease is another bogus scare?

[CFLarsen]

From this thread (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?p=1230669#p1230669)
Um, well, let's see...

1) There have been a very scant amount of people who died from CJ
2) There's no evidence that any of them got CJ from eating BSE-infected meat
3) Cows can't even get it from eating the red meat of infected cows (they have to eat the brain or spinal cord)

Isn't that enough? Mad Cow Disease is another bogus scare. And turning away relief for hurricane victims on that basis is ludicrous bordering on unconscionable.

While the causes of CJ are not decided yet, such a statement as the above should cause us to ask:

Who benefits from scaring people like this?


Not the consumers. They get scared.

Not the politicians. They were blamed.

Not the meat industry. They lost a lot of money and markets.

Not the scientists. They grapple with the causes.


Who is behind this world-wide "bogus scare", and why would they do it?

How can they get away with it?

[Mojo]

From this thread (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?p=1230669#p1230669)


While the causes of CJ are not decided yet, such a statement as the above should cause us to ask:

Who benefits from scaring people like this?


Not the consumers. They get scared.

Not the politicians. They were blamed.

Not the meat industry. They lost a lot of money and markets.

Not the scientists. They grapple with the causes.


Who is behind this world-wide "bogus scare", and why would they do it?Journalists. Because it gives them something to fill their paper with. How can they get away with it?Because they set the agenda.

[epepke]

why would they do it?

They're stupid.

How can they get away with it?

People are stupid.

Look, most of this stuff is really quite simple. People are bad, stupid, and incompetent.

[Euromutt]

Mojo's nailed it; scare stories sell papers and increase viewing ratings. That said, do not discount opportunism on the part of politicians currently in opposition ("this would never have happened if we'd been in power!") and certain scientists more interested in publicity-whoring than in advancing science. Oh, and pseudoscientists and other woo types, of course; the Kevin Trudeaus of this world will be all too happy to sell you their book detailing how to prevent CJD with shark-cartilage enemas, while the PETA types will try to convince you that CJD is the inevitable consequence of eating meat.

[Beerina]

From this thread (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?p=1230669#p1230669)


While the causes of CJ are not decided yet, such a statement as the above should cause us to ask:

Who benefits from scaring people like this?

Not the consumers. They get scared.

This is correct.

Not the politicians. They were blamed.

Incorrect. The politicians in countries without mad cows benefit from kickbacks by their local meat industries.

Not the meat industry. They lost a lot of money and markets.

Not in the countries affected. However, meat producers in continental Europe benefit because they no longer import UK beef. Similar arguments are made by politicians riding to the rescue by banning beef from the US for similar reasons, or fruits and vegetables because they contain pesticides.

US rice used to be banned in Japan (and maybe still is for all I know) because it was not "right for the sensitive Japanese stomach. Translated: Domestic Japanese rice farmers could continue to charge 10x the world rice price due to their government-protected monopoly. So I guess consumers lose a lot more than just being scared:

- Prices in affected countries go up due to short supplies because local product is destroyed

- Prices in non-affected countries go up due to short supplies because of a ban on importation

Not the scientists. They grapple with the causes.

When they're not being talking heads or applying for grants. Plus, a politician only needs one live wire or two in the scientific community to pick up the ball and start banning.

[Kerberos]

Besides the excellent points rasied so far from other posters, Cluas's point would not, even if it was true qualify as a rebutal. If Shanek's points where correct then it's a bogus scare whether or not anybody benefits from it. Now his second point is not (ETA: At least not if by that he means that there is no evidence that it's caused by BSE at all, if he means that it's not caused by the meat itself, but by brain matter then he might be right), in fact, correct, but I still think his overall point holds; the risc is greatly exagerated.

[Manny]

Well, look. I'm all for beating up the media and they certainly have their part in this, but it's not like they made it up from whole cloth.

When cows started going nuts and dropping dead in the 80's, Britain said that people would not be affected. At all. The species barrier would protect everyone. Then in the 90's people started dying. Not many, to be sure, but more than the zero the British government had promised and in a particularly ghastly way. Also, it turned out that it wasn't a case of eating an infected cow and getting the disease. vCJD has a pretty long latency period followed by a sudden onset and very quick death. So now you've got a whole nation of people wondering whether the meat they had been eating for the past decade would suddenly and without warning up and kill them next week or next month or next year or not at all. Only a few people caught vCJD, but over 150,000 cattle got BSE. Saying that's statistically low is kind of like saying that a flu pandemic that kills 20 million people is statistically low on a population of 6 billion. True, but useless. Is it "bogus" to be scared by all that? I don't think so.

Add in bad science. Britian's false assurances were backed by many scientists . In fairness, other scientists differed. But no one wants to hear about the how disagreements strengthen the scientific process when they bet on the wrong scientist and as a result might go mad and die without warning a week from next Tuesday. Even after the vCJD cases broke, people were assured that the prion only existed in spinal material. A few years and a new generation of testing equipment later, that turned out to be false, too, at least for human victims of vCJD. And the prion could only be spread from cattle to other cattle through feed. Well, OK, maybe sheep, too. So no ruminants. But it can't pass through dried blood, so that's OK -- still is, at least until the next generation of testing equipment. Anyone sensing how full of, well, bull, a rational non-professional might perceive this as being?

So now no one knows who or what to believe. Scientists tell us that we're not in much danger because BSE doesn't present in cattle under 30 months old and the US beef industry typically slaughters its cows well before then. But "scientists" told us it would never affect humans in the first place and that it didn't exist in skeletal muscle.

I agree that the risk is overstated. I would eat (and did eat in the mid-90's) British beef without hesitation. But I can understand the fear. People have been fed almost as much beef manure as beef.

[Nyarlathotep]

Of Course, Claus, you are assuming that a bogus scare has to be intentionally set up by someone. But that's not necessarily the case. The public is quite good at panicking all on its own without anyone intentionally trying to get them to do it. remember the Y2K 'Bug' and how Jan 1, 2000 was going to bring us financial chaos,the destruction of the power grid, planes falling from the sky, burning hail, locusts, 40 years of darkness, dogs and cats living together etc ? That wasn't intentionally set up by any group (though, like mad cow, it was taken advantage of by some unscrupulous types). So I have to agree with Shane, it IS a bogus scare. And the public did it to itself, like a bunch of schoolgirls standing in front of a mirror chanting 'bloody mary'. No conspiracy required.

[CFLarsen]

I didn't mean it as a rebuttal. What I am curious about is that nobody seems to benefit. Everyone loses.

People got scared and ate less meat, thereby diminishing the profits, even in those areas where no mass slaughtering took place (even in Denmark, where we only had isolated outbreaks). Politicians were generally blamed for not acting too fast. The scientists were scolded for not producing clear answers.

I find it interesting that people can't seem to agree on who were responsible: Scientists, because they can't work fast enough. Politicians (although some apparently got kickbacks, though this was not supported with evidence - perhaps another scare?). Just people being stupid (which would account for quite a large part of the population, especially in the UK). Pseudoscientists. And some say journalists caused the whole damn thing.

Is it a "bogus scare" at all? I've seen a lot of claims that it is (and who we should blame), but what I haven't seen much from people is facts and sources. Time for that:


Mad Cow Disease is not a "bogus scare". It has killed cows all over the world, in a truly nasty way:

Through the end of April 2005, more than 184,000 cases of BSE had been confirmed in the United Kingdom alone in more than 35,000 herds.
...
The BSE epidemic in the United Kingdom peaked in January 1993 at almost 1,000 new cases per week. The outbreak may have resulted from the feeding of scrapie-containing sheep meat-and-bone meal to cattle. There is strong evidence and general agreement that the outbreak was amplified by feeding rendered bovine meat-and-bone meal to young calves.
Source (http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/vcjd/qa.htm)

Creutzfeldt-Jacob Disease is also not a "bogus scare". It is a known disease that hits mostly elderly people.

Variant Creutzfeldt-Jacob Disease appeared in 1995 in the UK, about 10 years after BSE broke out in the UK.

There is evidence that people have gotten vCJD from BSE-infected meat:

Strong evidence indicates that BSE has been transmitted to humans primarily in the United Kingdom, causing a variant form of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD).
Source (http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/vcjd/qa.htm)

There is strong epidemiologic and laboratory evidence for a causal association between variant CJD and BSE. The absence of confirmed cases of variant CJD in other geographic areas free of BSE supports a causal association.

In addition, the interval between the most likely period for the initial extended exposure of the population to potentially BSE-contaminated food (1984-1986) and onset of initial variant CJD cases (1994-1996) is consistent with known incubation periods for CJD.

An experimental study reported in June 1996 showed that three cynomologus macaque monkeys inoculated with brain tissue obtained from cattle with BSE had clinical and neuropathological features strikingly similar to those of variant CJD (Nature 1996;381:743-4).

A study published in 1996 indicated that a Western blot analysis of infecting prions obtained from 10 variant CJD patients and BSE-infected animals had similar molecular characteristics that were distinct from prions obtained from patients with other types of CJD (Nature 1996;383:685-90).

An experimental study involving inoculation of a panel of inbred mice with the agents causing BSE and variant CJD substantially increased the strength of the scientific evidence for a causal association between variant CJD and BSE (Nature 1997;389:498-501). In this study, groups of inbred mice and a group of cross-bred mice inoculated with brain homogenates from variant CJD cases were reported to have had latency periods and lesion profiles consistent with the BSE pattern.

The latency period, neuropathology, and disease-causing PrP isoforms in transgenic mice expressing bovine PrP that were inoculated with variant CJD, BSE, and scrapie brain extracts provided additional evidence supporting the link between BSE and variant CJD (Proc Natl Acad Sci 1999;96:15137-42).
Source (http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/vcjd/qa.htm)
We know that it takes many decades for CJD to break out. It takes less time for vCJD to break out, which caused the link to be discovered.

We know that there is a link between people with variant CJD and eating meat infected with the prion that causes BSE. (Source (http://www.mass.gov/dph/cdc/factsheets/madcow.htm)). This link is not strong enough to warrant the "scientifically proven" stamp, but it should be noted that the evidence is mounting:

Since 1996, evidence has been increasing for a causal relationship between ongoing outbreaks in Europe of a disease in cattle, called bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE, or 'mad cow' disease), and vCJD. There is now strong scientific evidence that the agent responsible for the outbreak of prion disease in cows, BSE, is the same agent responsible for the outbreak of vCJD in humans. Both disorders are invariably fatal brain diseases with unusually long incubation periods measured in years, and are caused by an unconventional transmissible agent. However, this evidence also suggests that the risk is low for having vCJD, even after consumption of contaminated product. In 1996, because of the emergence of vCJD in the United Kingdom, CDC enhanced its surveillance for CJD in the United States.
Source (http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/vcjd/)

Are humans susceptible to BSE?
Although not scientifically proven, there is strong epidemiologic and laboratory data linking a rare, degenerative, fatal brain disorder in humans called variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD) to the consumption of BSE-contaminated product. This type of disease begins primarily with psychiatric symptoms and affects younger patients (median age, 28 years).

How many cases of vCJD have there been and have there been any in the United States?
As of December 1, 2003, a total of 153 cases of vCJD had been reported in the world: 143 from the United Kingdom, six from France, and one each from Canada, Ireland, Italy, and the United States.

(Note: The one case of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United States is in a young woman who likely contracted the disease while living in the United Kingdom. Symptoms appeared after she moved to the United States. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has not found additional cases in the United States through its surveillance program.)
Source (http://www.fsis.usda.gov/Fact_Sheets/Bovine_Spongiform_Encephalopathy_Mad_Cow_Disease/index.asp)

The risk today is extremely small in the US:

The current risk for infection with the BSE agent among travelers to Europe is extremely small, if it exists at all. Information describing this risk is available in the document titled "Risk for Travelers" available on this site.
Source (http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dvrd/vcjd/qa.htm)


I think that calling it a "bogus scare" is somewhat over the top.

(I can be convinced by contrary scientific evidence, of course. I don't think that blaming journalists will do it, though.)

[Nyarlathotep]

I think that calling it a "bogus scare" is somewhat over the top.

(I can be convinced by contrary scientific evidence, of course. I don't think that blaming journalists will do it, though.)

Well, I guess it depends on how you define 'Bogus Scare'. Sure, the disease is real and it has killed people, those points are not in dispute (and I would be highly surprised to find out that is what Shane meant by calling it a Bogus Scare). However it is a 'bogus scare' in the sense that people's fears of it and their reactions to that fear are waaaaaaaay out of proportion to the chance of getting the disease.

Your own data shows 153 deaths worldwide, the vast majority (143) being in the UK. 60 odd million people live in the UK. So even in the heart of Mad Cow country, I like my odds of not getting it. It's a bogus scare from the point of view that the teeny tiny chance of getting it is used as a political tool to block beef imports from abroad, its a bogus scare from the point of view of how much people worry about it. That's what I mean by the phrase anyway, and I will bet that it is what Shane meant too.

[TobiasTheViking]

Who gained for all the media hype from SARS, or from the current H5N1?

The media gains(and the countries that aren't affected also gain a bit).


But mostly the media.

"And this week, no people died of MCD in sweden"

In contrast to

"And this week, 1 person died of MCD, or so some scientists think"

Then we just have to blow it out of proportion a bit, and we are there....


*sigh*

Hence, i don't trust the media, i don't like the media, and i don't watch/read the media. Not anymore.

[CBL4]

Because it is a fairly preventable disease, the panic did a lot of good. The British beef industry stomped it out. Without the panic, it is possible that the disease would linger and the deaths would mount in the UK and else where.

CBL

[CFLarsen]

Well, I guess it depends on how you define 'Bogus Scare'. Sure, the disease is real and it has killed people, those points are not in dispute (and I would be highly surprised to find out that is what Shane meant by calling it a Bogus Scare). However it is a 'bogus scare' in the sense that people's fears of it and their reactions to that fear are waaaaaaaay out of proportion to the chance of getting the disease.

Your own data shows 153 deaths worldwide, the vast majority (143) being in the UK. 60 odd million people live in the UK. So even in the heart of Mad Cow country, I like my odds of not getting it. It's a bogus scare from the point of view that the teeny tiny chance of getting it is used as a political tool to block beef imports from abroad, its a bogus scare from the point of view of how much people worry about it. That's what I mean by the phrase anyway, and I will bet that it is what Shane meant too.

Again, the risk today is extremely small. Do you agree that, left unchecked, this could very well have meant a major pandemic? The scary - and I use that word deliberately - thing about CJD in its various forms is that it takes very long for the symptoms to appear - we are talking decades. They are also hard to find.

You might want to re-read shanek's reasons for labelling this a "bogus scare". He claimed that there was no evidence that any of them got infected from eating BSE-infected meat. Then, reread the evidence from the CDC site.

shanek hasn't even done a simple, cursory websearch. And I would still like to see who he thinks is behind this "bogus scare".

[CFLarsen]

Because it is a fairly preventable disease, the panic did a lot of good. The British beef industry stomped it out. Without the panic, it is possible that the disease would linger and the deaths would mount in the UK and else where.

I'm not even sure I personally would call it a "panic". We didn't see throngs of people on the streets, screaming their guts out, pulling out their hair in despair.

But, of course, if someone are to label it a "bogus scare", it might be wise to do a bit of wolf-crying themselves...

[CFLarsen]

Hence, i don't trust the media, i don't like the media, and i don't watch/read the media. Not anymore.

Where do you get your information from, then?

[Nyarlathotep]

Again, the risk today is extremely small. Do you agree that, left unchecked, this could very well have meant a major pandemic? The scary - and I use that word deliberately - thing about CJD in its various forms is that it takes very long for the symptoms to appear - we are talking decades. They are also hard to find.

You might want to re-read shanek's reasons for labelling this a "bogus scare". He claimed that there was no evidence that any of them got infected from eating BSE-infected meat. Then, reread the evidence from the CDC site.

shanek hasn't even done a simple, cursory websearch. And I would still like to see who he thinks is behind this "bogus scare".

It might have become a major pandemic. I don't know how easy it is to transmit the prion from cow to human. They only suceeded in duplicating the feat in a lab very recently, so it doesn't sound that easy at all. And even so there is a lot of ground between 'completely unchecked' and 'They found a single cow in Canada with BSE!!!! We're all gonna die of Mad Cow!!! BAN ALL CANADIAN BEEF!!! AIIIIEEEEE!!!!!' and for a while, the latter seemed to be the mood of the country, I ofund it quite silly.

[Chaos]

I'm not even sure I personally would call it a "panic". We didn't see throngs of people on the streets, screaming their guts out, pulling out their hair in despair.

*snip*

But when it was in the headlines, I found it very difficult to get something made of beef in a restaurant. Vegetarian lasagna... :boggled:

[Nyarlathotep]

But when it was in the headlines, I found it very difficult to get something made of beef in a restaurant. Vegetarian lasagna... :boggled:

Almost the same here, no problem finding it but the price really spiked. And I recall at least two different restaraunts at the time assuring me that they got heir beef from places that did not have Mad Cow.

[CFLarsen]

It might have become a major pandemic. I don't know how easy it is to transmit the prion from cow to human. They only suceeded in duplicating the feat in a lab very recently, so it doesn't sound that easy at all. And even so there is a lot of ground between 'completely unchecked' and 'They found a single cow in Canada with BSE!!!! We're all gonna die of Mad Cow!!! BAN ALL CANADIAN BEEF!!! AIIIIEEEEE!!!!!' and for a while, the latter seemed to be the mood of the country, I ofund it quite silly.

That was not my perception at all, not even in Europe. Yes, there was grave concern, but mostly because beef is such a common product and that it took a long time for the disease to show up.

But when it was in the headlines, I found it very difficult to get something made of beef in a restaurant. Vegetarian lasagna... :boggled:

Yes, well, we all know your culinary tastes. Or rather, lack of taste.. :p

Do people feel the same about bird flu? It has the same traits as BSE/vCJD: Something that affects us all - birds (chickens), a deadly disease, global, but low risk and relatively few deaths.

If not, why not?

[Nyarlathotep]

That was not my perception at all, not even in Europe. Yes, there was grave concern, but mostly because beef is such a common product and that it took a long time for the disease to show up

Perceptions vary I guess or maybe they didn't freak out as badly in Europe as over here, maybe both, I don't know. Because what I said was the perception I got. I knew several people who gave up beef entirely due to the Mad Cow scare, and the whole idea of banning ALL Canadian beef over a single case struck me as a huge overreaction. Then there are the idiot PETA types who decided to use the issue to push their agenda.

Plus in a lot of cases it wasn't even informed concern, I also knew several people who decided that their beef had to be thoroughly cooked, so as not to get mad cow. And even a tiny amount of research into the topic would ahve told them that cooking doesn't affect the prion. That says, to me anyway, these people just got swept up into the hysteria without bothering to find out a damn thing about this disease they were so scared of getting. Somehow I doubt they were the only ones. To me, a scare doesn't get much more bogus than that.


Do people feel the same about bird flu? It has the same traits as BSE/vCJD: Something that affects us all - birds (chickens), a deadly disease, global, but low risk and relatively few deaths.

If not, why not?

Well, I think that a lot of fear is being mongered over a global pandemic that hasn't even happened yet. The big fear with that is that the virus will mutate into a form that is easily transmissable from human to human. There is no evidence that it has happened yet, but most people I know who worry about it don't know that. They just hear "Deadly bird flu" on the news and worry "OMFG! There's a deadly bird flu going around!". As with BSE/CJ they are scared of it and they don't know a thing about it.

[Solitaire]

One wonders where it came from. (http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/science/91440.php)

[Chaos]

That was not my perception at all, not even in Europe. Yes, there was grave concern, but mostly because beef is such a common product and that it took a long time for the disease to show up.


To the contrary... I think the reaction was about as close to outright panic as possible considering the limited area of effect (i.e. the fact that only a small fraction of the variety of our food supply was affected).


Yes, well, we all know your culinary tastes. Or rather, lack of taste.. :p

Smorebrod. That´s all I have to say about that. :(


Do people feel the same about bird flu? It has the same traits as BSE/vCJD: Something that affects us all - birds (chickens), a deadly disease, global, but low risk and relatively few deaths.

If not, why not?

I don´t know about Denmark, but here the reaction to bird flu is approaching the levels we had back when mad cow disease was in the headlines. Starting the day before yesterday, all poultry in Hesse has been grounded (i.e. confined to indoors) to avoid contamination from migratory birds.

[CFLarsen]

Smorebrod. That´s all I have to say about that. :(

What, you don't like raw, marinated herring? Or raw minced beef with a raw egg yolk, an onion ring and cress? Tsk, tsk...

I don´t know about Denmark, but here the reaction to bird flu is approaching the levels we had back when mad cow disease was in the headlines. Starting the day before yesterday, all poultry in Hesse has been grounded (i.e. confined to indoors) to avoid contamination from migratory birds.

It has happened in some areas in DK as well. I suspect it won't be long before all outdoor chickens are sent indoors.

Question is, do you find it justified?

[Chaos]

What, you don't like raw, marinated herring? Or raw minced beef with a raw egg yolk, an onion ring and cress? Tsk, tsk...


One word: Yuck! :boggled:


It has happened in some areas in DK as well. I suspect it won't be long before all outdoor chickens are sent indoors.

Question is, do you find it justified?

I don´t know. I don´t have the facts I need to make an informed decision on this.
But if I had to make a decision, I´d say better save than sorry. I recall reading somewhere recently that some researcher found out that the big flu epidemic in 1919 started out as some kind of bird flu, too - if that is true, I guess there is a very real risk if no protective measures are taken.

[Mojo]

I'm not even sure I personally would call it a "panic". We didn't see throngs of people on the streets, screaming their guts out, pulling out their hair in despair.All I remember from the time is that people stopped buying beef for a few days, until the supermarkets dropped the price.

I actually remember a shopper with a trolley-load of cut-price cuts being interviewed on the television news:

"Aren't you worried that it might kill you?"
"Yes, but it's so cheap..."

:rolleyes:

[Mojo]

And of course we've currently got Fleet Street desperately promoting the current health scare.

The tabloids (and the Torygraph) have today had front page headlines along the lines of "bird flu is in Britain" above a story about a dead parrot.

The parrot had died while in quarantine. I can only assume that the editors of these papers have no idea what the purpose of quarantine is.

Quarantine is there to prevent infected animals entering the country. If the parrot died while in quarantine, that means that quarantine has done its job and prevented an infected parrot entering the country.

[CapelDodger]

Incorrect. The politicians in countries without mad cows benefit from kickbacks by their local meat industries.Now that's harsh. The US gumment, for instance, is going to regard it as its duty to have regard to the interests of its indigenous cow-killing industry. It doesn't necessarily mean that brown envelopes stuffed with cash are being passed over, which is rather the flavour of your post.

[CapelDodger]

The parrot had died while in quarantine. I can only assume that the editors of these papers have no idea what the purpose of quarantine is.Nah, it's not dead. It's resting. Lovely plumage ...

[CapelDodger]

1) There have been a very scant amount of people who died from CJ.
About 100 (asuming we're talking nvCJD), many of them very young, and all in a way that causes massive distress to them and those who love them. But not many, indeed.

2) There's no evidence that any of them got CJ from eating BSE-infected meat
I imagine here he means there's no proof of them getting nvCJD from BSE. There's plenty of evidence, but scientists will seldom claim proof. They won't, for instance, claim that nvCJD is proven not to be caused by BSE.

3) Cows can't even get it from eating the red meat of infected cows (they have to eat the brain or spinal cord)
Measures were taken to prevent brain and spinal cord from entering the human food chain. That may have something to with the "scant" numbers who've contracted nvCJD. Who actually knows? Who knew at the time? It went through the cattle-herd like wildfire, which is why it was noticed and measures were taken.

I think this is one of those cases where the measures taken are dismissed because the thing they were meant to prevent didn't happen. Like servicing your car before winter : Did you service your car? Did it break down afterwards? No? Well, you wasted your money, then, didn't you? :)

[Mojo]

Nah, it's not dead. It's resting. Lovely plumage ...
The plumage don't enter into it - it's stone dead.

[CapelDodger]

I didn't mean it as a rebuttal. What I am curious about is that nobody seems to benefit. Everyone loses.It says something about the way most of us live today. We are so far removed from the sources of our consumption that confidence cannot be strong. The beef-industry was living on a knife-edge :) of consumer confidence. BSE came as a bolt :) from the blue. Very little of what we do - work for money - has any bearing on what we consume, but we well know how dodgy our own business is, so we're wide open to fear about the products of other businesses. Most of modern life is a mystery to the people living it.

[CapelDodger]

The plumage don't enter into it - it's stone dead.You could wear it as a hat. :) Geek that I am, the Parrot Sketch was the first thing that sprang to mind when the story broke.

eta: I watched the Chief Veterinary Officer of the UK, Debby Reynolds, do an exemplary job of presenting this case. Faced with "isn't this Armageddon?" questioning she stuck to the point : the bird died in quarantine, that's what quarantine's for, all birds in contact have been culled (hate that word personally, but hey ...) which is how quarantine works, it's H5 but we don't know if it's N1, the disease-free status of the UK remains the same. Much applause.

Yes people, Debby Reynolds, giggle then let it go.

[CapelDodger]

What, you don't like raw, marinated herring? Or raw minced beef with a raw egg yolk, an onion ring and cress? Tsk, tsk...Memories of Edwina Currie (UK politician, something minor in Health and thrown to the wolves, shagged Major, even UK politics has its characters) making a statement that most UK egg-production had Salmonella. Meaning most egg-production facilities, not most eggs by a long, long way, but raw egg has been a no-no over here ever since.

An odd thing ... when I was growing up (I'm 50-ish) my mother always broke eggs into a cup before putting them into the pan or the cake, whatever. That was because of the chance that the egg would be off and pollute everything else. Nobody does that any more, because eggs are hardly ever off. There's so much preservative in the feed and antibiotics being used that it's no longer a feature.

But what are they doing to us egg-eaters ...? :eek:

[CFLarsen]

1) There have been a very scant amount of people who died from CJ.
About 100 (asuming we're talking nvCJD), many of them very young, and all in a way that causes massive distress to them and those who love them. But not many, indeed.

2) There's no evidence that any of them got CJ from eating BSE-infected meat
I imagine here he means there's no proof of them getting nvCJD from BSE. There's plenty of evidence, but scientists will seldom claim proof. They won't, for instance, claim that nvCJD is proven not to be caused by BSE.

3) Cows can't even get it from eating the red meat of infected cows (they have to eat the brain or spinal cord)
Measures were taken to prevent brain and spinal cord from entering the human food chain. That may have something to with the "scant" numbers who've contracted nvCJD. Who actually knows? Who knew at the time? It went through the cattle-herd like wildfire, which is why it was noticed and measures were taken.

I think this is one of those cases where the measures taken are dismissed because the thing they were meant to prevent didn't happen. Like servicing your car before winter : Did you service your car? Did it break down afterwards? No? Well, you wasted your money, then, didn't you? :)

Do you consider the present-day bird flu the kind of situation?

[shanek]

Look, most of this stuff is really quite simple. People are bad, stupid, and incompetent.

Or, as they said in Men In Black, "A person is smart; people are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals."

It's just yet another baseless scare. Remember the leaky breast implants? How long did that scare go on? How many people STILL are scared about it? But the statistics show that the instances of breast cancer or any of the other claimed health risks show up no more often in women with breast implants than they do in the general female population. Yet, the scare happened and the myth persists.

With mad cow, there are something like 150 people diagnosed with CJ (so-called the "human mad cow") over a period of over ten years. It's known for a fact that many of them weren't even eating red meat at all; none of the rest had their disease linked to eating infected meat. It's also known that cows can't even get BSE from eating the red meat of other cows; they need to eat the brain or spinal column. A lot of the scare involved a downer cow in Seattle; the press made a big to-do over how it wasn't being tested for mad cow and why are the beef companies covering it up, when it was investigated and it was discovered that the cow suffered from a genetic disorder.

It really exists for the same reason belief in the paranormal does: people don't have the critical thinking skills to properly evaluate the evidence, nor the proper skeptical outlook to not just believe anything they see on TV.

Our job as skeptics is to help change that. And as I repeatedly keep pointing out, this is just as badly needed in the political arena if not moreso than it is with paranormal claims. This is a perfect example of that.

[shanek]

It's a bogus scare from the point of view that the teeny tiny chance of getting it is used as a political tool to block beef imports from abroad, its a bogus scare from the point of view of how much people worry about it. That's what I mean by the phrase anyway, and I will bet that it is what Shane meant too.

That is exactly what I meant. It's like being perpetually afraid of being hit by a meteorite.

[shanek]

Who gained for all the media hype from SARS, or from the current H5N1?

A lot of the scares, like the breast implant scares, see a lot of gain for civil trial lawyers.

[shanek]

One wonders where it came from. (http://www.azstarnet.com/sn/science/91440.php)

I was reading something years ago about cannibalistic cultures; the ones who ate human meat (generally the top echelon in the tribe (I just love mixing words like "echelon" and "tribe)) were healthy, but the ones lower down the ladder who ate the brain and nervous system had degenerative brain disease. Could that be a form of CJ?

[shanek]

2) There's no evidence that any of them got CJ from eating BSE-infected meat
I imagine here he means there's no proof of them getting nvCJD from BSE.

With the disclaimer that science never 100% proves anything, yes, that's correct. Thanks for clarifying that.

[Kerberos]

I was reading something years ago about cannibalistic cultures; the ones who ate human meat (generally the top echelon in the tribe (I just love mixing words like "echelon" and "tribe)) were healthy, but the ones lower down the ladder who ate the brain and nervous system had degenerative brain disease. Could that be a form of CJ?
Yes, it is, or at least it's related. You're thinking of the Kuru disease (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuru_%28disease%29), which is a prion disease like CJ.

[CapelDodger]

Do you consider the present-day bird flu the kind of situation?One where precautions taken will be dismissed if it doesn't happen, and criticised as inadequate if it does? I'd say so, yes. It's in the nature of things.

Current proposals include stocking vaccine, and stopping the exotic-bird trade, which both seem sensible. The public needs to be aware of what could happen, rather than have it take them by surprise, but I don't doubt the popular media will make a meal of it and leave most people drastically mis-informed.

[Kerberos]

With the disclaimer that science never 100% proves anything, yes, that's correct. Thanks for clarifying that.
Do you mean only from the meat or do you dispute that eating infected brain matter is dangerous too?

[CFLarsen]

Or, as they said in Men In Black, "A person is smart; people are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals."

It's just yet another baseless scare. Remember the leaky breast implants? How long did that scare go on? How many people STILL are scared about it? But the statistics show that the instances of breast cancer or any of the other claimed health risks show up no more often in women with breast implants than they do in the general female population. Yet, the scare happened and the myth persists.

What about the bird flu? What do you think of that?

With mad cow, there are something like 150 people diagnosed with CJ (so-called the "human mad cow") over a period of over ten years.

Wrong.

CJ is not "human mad cow". People are diagnosed with CJ quite frequently. What we know as "human mad cow" is variant CJ.

It's known for a fact that many of them weren't even eating red meat at all; none of the rest had their disease linked to eating infected meat.

Any evidence?

It's also known that cows can't even get BSE from eating the red meat of other cows; they need to eat the brain or spinal column. A lot of the scare involved a downer cow in Seattle; the press made a big to-do over how it wasn't being tested for mad cow and why are the beef companies covering it up, when it was investigated and it was discovered that the cow suffered from a genetic disorder.

Sources?

The vast majority of cases are from the UK, where the scare was far bigger than in the US. Not everything happens in the US.

It really exists for the same reason belief in the paranormal does: people don't have the critical thinking skills to properly evaluate the evidence, nor the proper skeptical outlook to not just believe anything they see on TV.

To properly evaluate the evidence, we need to see it first. Where's yours?

Our job as skeptics is to help change that. And as I repeatedly keep pointing out, this is just as badly needed in the political arena if not moreso than it is with paranormal claims. This is a perfect example of that.

BSE is predominantly a health issue, not political one.

[CFLarsen]

One where precautions taken will be dismissed if it doesn't happen, and criticised as inadequate if it does? I'd say so, yes. It's in the nature of things.

Current proposals include stocking vaccine, and stopping the exotic-bird trade, which both seem sensible. The public needs to be aware of what could happen, rather than have it take them by surprise, but I don't doubt the popular media will make a meal of it and leave most people drastically mis-informed.

But that's the point, isn't it? It's unfair to call Mad Cow Disease a "bogus scare", because we don't know for sure until after-the-fact.

[Ed]

Given the demand for material to fill the airwaves virtually anything will get blown up to massive proportions and be done to death, or until the next thing comes up. Presence in the media has no relationship to importance or reality of a story.

[CFLarsen]

Given the demand for material to fill the airwaves virtually anything will get blown up to massive proportions and be done to death, or until the next thing comes up. Presence in the media has no relationship to importance or reality of a story.

How will we know when the true big stories come up - as they happen, that is? Not after the fact.

[Ed]

How will we know when the true big stories come up - as they happen, that is? Not after the fact.

Good question. The coinage has been debased. You may remember from your time here that every storm was treated with breathless anticipation on the Weather Channel, reporters braving surf, and resounding dissapointment when noone dies. I am willing to bet that this desensitization to potential disaster contributed to the NO fiasco.

NEW YORK, Oct. 15 (UPI) -- A TV news reporter got caught up a creek without a paddle while exaggerating the depth of flooding in New Jersey.

Michelle Kosinski appeared to be paddling a canoe while filing a report on the New Jersey floods for NBC's "Today" show Friday.

"It's really tough to control a canoe or a boat when you're out in it," she told New York hosts Matt Lauer and Katie Couric.

But while she was speaking, two men were seen in the camera shot walking in front of the reporter's canoe in ankle-deep water, the New York Daily News reported Saturday.

Both Lauer and Couric burst out laughing.

Lauer asked: "Are these holy men, perhaps walking on top of the water?"

A concerned Couric added: "Gee, is your oar hitting ground, Michelle?"
http://community.centurytel.net/index.cfm?action=living.news.tv.article&id=wed/bg/Uus-canoe.Rqwm_FOF.html

And NBC sez:

""It's not like we were trying to pass it off as something it wasn't," spokeswoman Lauren Kapp said.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2005/10/13/DI2005101301130.html

This is the Gonzo Journalism chapmioned by Hunter Thompson:
Gonzo journalism is a journalistic style, most famously used by Hunter S. Thompson. The name was coined by Bill Cardoso. Central to gonzo journalism is the notion that journalism can be more truthful without strict observance of traditional rules of factual reportage. The best work in the genre is characterized by a novelistic twist added to reportage, with usual standards of accuracy subordinated to catching the mood of a place or event. The reporter and the quest for information are central, with other considerations taking a back seat.

Gonzo journalism is an extension of the New Journalism championed by Tom Wolfe, Lester Bangs, and George Plimpton. "I don't get any satisfaction out of the old traditional journalist's view—'I just covered the story. I just gave it a balanced view,'" Thompson said in an interview for Atlantic Unbound. "Objective journalism is one of the main reasons American politics has been allowed to be so corrupt for so long. You can't be objective about Nixon. How can you be objective about Clinton?" In Thompson's work there is frequently a distorted viewpoint brought on by the author's consumption of drugs and alcohol (usually recorded in the article for posterity).

From Wikki

In essence the notion of presenting the reporter's subjective take has been bastardized to presenting a take that reflects the ratings well being of the reporter's employer. Slippery slop, same damn thing. Lies.

You ask how we can know. Answer is we can't.

[CFLarsen]

You ask how we can know. Answer is we can't.

There you go.

[CapelDodger]

But that's the point, isn't it? It's unfair to call Mad Cow Disease a "bogus scare", because we don't know for sure until after-the-fact.Absolutely. There is a real risk - people have already died, and there's the example of the Spanish Flu - and it's not at all far-fetched. Comparing it with leaky breast-implants is farcical. Neglecting to make contingency plans would be criminally negligent.

[luchog]

3) Cows can't even get it from eating the red meat of infected cows (they have to eat the brain or spinal cord)
Measures were taken to prevent brain and spinal cord from entering the human food chain. That may have something to with the "scant" numbers who've contracted nvCJD. Who actually knows? Who knew at the time? It went through the cattle-herd like wildfire, which is why it was noticed and measures were taken.
Actually, that's not true. The prion has been demonstrated present in and transmissible by meat. Howeve, the concentration is very low outside of the brain and spinal cord, because the prions reponsible inhabit nerve tissue almost exclusively. I beleive cross-species transmissibility has also been demonstrated, but I don't currently to the info.

In any case, transmission does require the consumption of animal products; and the primary vector for the transmission is consumption, particularly cannabalistic consumption, of infected animals. Early in the previous century, a huge number of commercially raised pigs had to be destroyed because of "kuru" symptoms, later determined to be caused by a similar prion infection. The vector for infection was the feed which consisted predominantly of rendered industrial and municipal garbage, and offal from the slaughterhouses.

[shanek]

Do you mean only from the meat or do you dispute that eating infected brain matter is dangerous too?

I do not in any way dispute the dangers involved in eating infected brain matter.

[Chaos]

I do not in any way dispute the dangers involved in eating infected brain matter.

I don´t know about the US, but here in Europe - specifically in the UK - I recall the problem was that
- cows had been fed with the brain matter, spinal cord and/or pulverized bones of dead animals, including those infected with mad cow disease
- in the process of producing certain kinds of meat products for humans, the meat is scraped off the bones by some machine; it had been conclusively proven that this can lead to some mad cow disease carrying matter (spinal cord, IIRC) to be mixed into the meat product

[CFLarsen]

I don´t know about the US, but here in Europe - specifically in the UK - I recall the problem was that
- cows had been fed with the brain matter, spinal cord and/or pulverized bones of dead animals, including those infected with mad cow disease
- in the process of producing certain kinds of meat products for humans, the meat is scraped off the bones by some machine; it had been conclusively proven that this can lead to some mad cow disease carrying matter (spinal cord, IIRC) to be mixed into the meat product

Let me put it gently:

People are not interested in knowing exactly what is in their sausages or other kinds of processed "meat".

Trust me. You are not.

[Chaos]

Let me put it gently:

People are not interested in knowing exactly what is in their sausages or other kinds of processed "meat".

Trust me. You are not.

I know. That is, I know that I don´t know, and don´t want to know either.