Zener project

[teacher]

Is anyone familiar with the 'Zenon project'?:

http://www.magicktv.org/magick_tv_copy(9).htm

This guy states he hopes to claim the JREF $1 million on this video.

I found it in a recent press release here:

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2005/11/prweb314373.htm

He's doing an interactive experiment with Zener cards with the public, who feed back info. Says he's happy with the JREF protocol and ability to win the prize. One would assume that logic says to be pretty (demonstrably) confident of winning before saying you'll win it, but then when did the idea of logic or self or independent testing beforehand ever register to a psychic?

[teacher]

I meant 'Zener' (after the inventor of the 5 famous cards) in my first line rather than Zenon (after 'Paul' the British magician). Sorry.

[JPK]

Good morning.
I like the way people use the JREF Challenge for publicity to promote themselves. I predict they will not apply or if they do it will not be an actual paranormal claim.
JPK

[T'ai Chi]

Is anyone familiar with the 'Zenon project'?:

http://www.magicktv.org/magick_tv_copy(9).htm

This guy states he hopes to claim the JREF $1 million on this video.

I found it in a recent press release here:

http://www.prweb.com/releases/2005/11/prweb314373.htm

He's doing an interactive experiment with Zener cards with the public, who feed back info. Says he's happy with the JREF protocol and ability to win the prize. One would assume that logic says to be pretty (demonstrably) confident of winning before saying you'll win it, but then when did the idea of logic or self or independent testing beforehand ever register to a psychic?

Hmm, my email hasn't been returned, but I put this up

http://www.statisticool.com/magicktv.html

[Bob Klase]

"Besides the results being self-reported, there is another serious issue: one would expect more than 26 in the Right pile not from ESP if it exists, but from rational guessing by using the information of what cards have been drawn."

I'd say the first big problem with being self reported is that anybody can lie about their results- either intentionally or by self-deception (ie- I think the next card is black- opps it's really red, well I meant red). The vast majority of people might not, but it wouldn't take very many to skew the results. But that's not revelant to the JREF challenge because I don't think they every plan to actually apply- they're just using it for publicity. And whatever results are reported will mean nothing- it's only results after their claims are accepted by the JREF challenge that will count- and that will certainly be more controlled than self-reported results.

[T'ai Chi]

Hmm, my email hasn't been returned, but I put this up

http://www.statisticool.com/magicktv.html

Still not returned.

I changed the webpage to

http://www.statisticool.com/cards.htm

I got a comment some months ago of 'if I have a bad memory, or hvae difficulty counting cards, how would I do it?' simple- just look at the height of the stacks.

[Mercutio]

Have not clicked the link, but there are Zener card sites that give the option of sampling with and without replacement--with replacement means that card-counting no longer helps; each card is returned to the deck, which is reshuffled.

In the sites I have seen, they do appropriate stats for both with and without replacement, so that the complaint about using the previous cards' information is accounted for. If this site does not, the claimant is statistically ignorant.