ADAM HUGO, "...Because Of My Presence"

[Ripley Twenty-Nine]

Did anyone happen to catch the fact that Adam Hugo is our very own 'supernaturalbeing', responsible for the 'review of unacceptable claims' thread? One of the first replies to the thread was from KRAMER saying the following (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?postid=1048398#post1048398):

From KRAMER
If you are stating here that you believe yourself to be responsible for the movement of these clouds, and you are entertaining the notion of applying for the JREF Paranormal Challenge, please understand that it would be rejected upon receipt.


He also claimed in this thread to be able to pick lottery numbers correctly three days in a row. We told him that we would gladly help him get his claim submitted if he showed us his powers by posting one set of winning lottery numbers.

He replied saying that to pick lottery numbers, he needed numerous laptops and a camcorder, which he didn't have the money to buy.

Who can pick out the most number of problems in that one statement? :)

[The_Fire]

If he can pick the lottery numbers, all he should need was a paper and a pencil?

[Ripley Twenty-Nine]

If he can pick the lottery numbers, all he should need was a paper and a pencil?
Well, the ones that came off the top of my head were:
1) He needs NUMEROUS laptops? Considering most laptops have over 1GHz of processing power, how in the world would he need more than one?
2) A camcorder? To pick lottery numbers?
3) If he could really pick lottery numbers, why would he be unable to 'afford' anything?
4) How does he know that it requires multiple laptops and a camcorder to pick lottery numbers if he doesn't have multiple laptops or a camcorder?

And I'm sure there's more!

[Soapy Sam]

He needs a business plan. Convince any bank manager he can pick lottery numbers and he will be up to his neck in G4 Powerbooks before he can say "AAARGH!"

Or he could buy a ticket...

[Mojo]

He replied saying that to pick lottery numbers, he needed numerous laptops and a camcorder, which he didn't have the money to buy. I never worked out how he knew he could do this with the laptops and camcorder if he didn't have the laptops and camcorder to try to do it with.

Or alternatively, if he had already done this using laptops and camcorder, why he couldn't afford them now...

[eri]

I was assuming he was planning to do some sort of statistical analysis of lotto numbers, but I don't see why that would need more than one laptop, or a camera. I think he hadn't really decided how he was going to do it, or had a very poor education in statistics. :D

[supernaturalbeing]

I'm working on this task.
I've got a laptop now.
Got a good job.
Girlfriend.
Haven't been able to post for a while, I guess cause they're upgrading there computers.
I found about ten millions dollars worth of money they are giving away for paranormal stuff.
I was able to do 2 out of three numbers for the New York pick three for a week. That was a profit of $400 a day, buying one set of tickets.
Still got a while before I can setup and try again.
Adam

[FortyTwo]

I'm working on this task.
I've got a laptop now.
Got a good job.
Girlfriend.
Haven't been able to post for a while, I guess cause they're upgrading there computers.
I found about ten millions dollars worth of money they are giving away for paranormal stuff.
I was able to do 2 out of three numbers for the New York pick three for a week. That was a profit of $400 a day, buying one set of tickets.
Still got a while before I can setup and try again.
Adam

If you can make $400 profit/day on the lottery, why do you need a job?

[supernaturalbeing]

I discovered by chance that I could do this lottery stuff...
But, now that I want or need to do this thing first I have to setup a
controlled environment, to reduce my chances of going bankrupt doing
this. It takes $100 to play (I only know 2 of three numbers). I don't have the income to support this if I don't get the numbers right the first time. This is the part that takes time. Right now I don't have a permenant place
to setup my equiptment, etc.
Also, I was able to do this for two weeks straight, predicting the outcome of races, which won me 1200.00 on a startup of $100, but here again the last time I wagered, I lost $500 so I only deposited $700 from that gig. Then I quit. There was no way to for me to do it 100%. But it is possible theoratically.

[Psiload]

I discovered by chance that I could do this lottery stuff...
But, now that I want or need to do this thing first I have to setup a
controlled environment, to reduce my chances of going bankrupt doing
this. It takes $100 to play (I only know 2 of three numbers). I don't have the income to support this if I don't get the numbers right the first time. This is the part that takes time. Right now I don't have a permenant place
to setup my equiptment, etc.
Also, I was able to do this for two weeks straight, predicting the outcome of races, which won me 1200.00 on a startup of $100, but here again the last time I wagered, I lost $500 so I only deposited $700 from that gig. Then I quit. There was no way to for me to do it 100%. But it is possible theoratically.
Can you say gambler's fallacy?

I knew that you could.

[LordoftheLeftHand]

I discovered by chance that I could do this lottery stuff...
But, now that I want or need to do this thing first I have to setup a
controlled environment, to reduce my chances of going bankrupt doing
this. It takes $100 to play (I only know 2 of three numbers). I don't have the income to support this if I don't get the numbers right the first time. This is the part that takes time. Right now I don't have a permenant place
to setup my equiptment, etc.
Also, I was able to do this for two weeks straight, predicting the outcome of races, which won me 1200.00 on a startup of $100, but here again the last time I wagered, I lost $500 so I only deposited $700 from that gig. Then I quit. There was no way to for me to do it 100%. But it is possible theoratically.

You need $100 to play the lotto, but you made $700 on the ponies. That means you can play it seven times. What is the problem?

LLH

[Ripley Twenty-Nine]

I discovered by chance that I could do this lottery stuff...
But, now that I want or need to do this thing first I have to setup a
controlled environment, to reduce my chances of going bankrupt doing
this. It takes $100 to play (I only know 2 of three numbers). I don't have the income to support this if I don't get the numbers right the first time. This is the part that takes time. Right now I don't have a permenant place
to setup my equiptment, etc.
Also, I was able to do this for two weeks straight, predicting the outcome of races, which won me 1200.00 on a startup of $100, but here again the last time I wagered, I lost $500 so I only deposited $700 from that gig. Then I quit. There was no way to for me to do it 100%. But it is possible theoratically.
Might I suggest that while trying to test out your predictions, that you do it without actually betting with money? So far it sounds as though you've won quite a bit, and lost quite a bit, which would be expected merely by chance.

I don't think that anyone here would want you to end up in the poor house while trying to hone your supernatural powers.

[LordoftheLeftHand]

Might I suggest that while trying to test out your predictions, that you do it without actually betting with money? So far it sounds as though you've won quite a bit, and lost quite a bit, which would be expected merely by chance.

I don't think that anyone here would want you to end up in the poor house while trying to hone your supernatural powers.

Great idea... Make sure you post your predictions before the lottery starts!

LLH

[Flange Desire]

It won't be long now.
US$1 million is plenty of incentive to quickly develop a testable claim.

[rjh01]

But no claim can win $1m. Either
a. The claimant cannot define what they can do.
b. They cannot do what they claim.

[Admiral]

Supernaturalbeing, why don't you just post the numbers you predict to win the lottery before each drawing. Whatever lottery you want: New York Lotto, Mega Millions, Pick 10, Quick Draw... just make sure that you post the numbers well before each drawing. We'll follow along for a week or two, and figure out the odds of your picks being correct by chance.

If you do well enough, we'll all help you write a claim letter. But it's possible that what you think is a paranormal ability is just a little luck and a mistaken sense of probability.

[rjh01]

If he does that then he would be one of the very few people who have ever made very specific predictions, in this thread, that are extremely unlikely to occur and genuinely thinking that they will happen.

[supernaturalbeing]

I'm uploading the tape for August 2004, mentioned in the other thread.
Will post the url.

[TheChadd]

I'm uploading the tape for August 2004, mentioned in the other thread.
Will post the url.
Ever considered that you may be insane? I'm being serious not trying to insult you.

[Gr8wight]

I'm uploading the tape for August 2004, mentioned in the other thread.
Will post the url.

What does that have to do with lottery numbers?

[LordoftheLeftHand]

What does that have to do with lottery numbers?
That is what I was wondering but was too scared to ask:eye-poppi

LLH

[Admiral]

Supernaturalbeing, are these tapes of your cloudbusting, the ones you mentioned on an earlier thread? If so, forget about them. You could show us tapes of clouds all day and you wouldn't be able to prove anything.

You see, clouds are known to dissiptate on their own. That means that if I took a camera to the park near my house and taped clouds for a few hours, I would eventually find one that dissipated while I was watching. There is nothing paranormal about such a video.

Please just test your own claim about predicting lottery numbers. Post them a few minutes before each drawing! Or, try a new claim: if you believe that you can make clouds dissipate because you have telekinetic powers, see what else you can do with these powers.

[Admiral]

In fact, why not start by predicting the Super Bowl- our timing is great.

[Jyera]

supernaturalbeing ,

Can you give me a set of 7 numbers chosen from 1 to 45 ?

thanks :)

[brettDbass]

4, 8, 15, 16, 23, 42 ?

Ok, that's only 6 numbers, but they're BAD numbers, m'kay?

The numbers are bad!
THE NUMBERS ARE BAD!

[rjh01]

Well if we are playing that game here are my numbers between 1 - 45
39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45.

They are seven numbers and as good as any other set of seven numbers. If they ever come out you could win big. Not many people have their birthdays on these days.

[Meffy]

You've even avoided Trente-Huit de Cunegonde.* Clever scheme, I like.
_________________________
* Not to be confused with Kundalini.

[supernaturalbeing]

the link to the avi
http://www.sendspace.com/file/uxtgbw

[mrfreeze]

Do you really expect anyone to spend over an hour downloading a 200 mb video of you pointing at clouds? I mean I was going to just for the sheer heck of it, but I'm not tying up my internet connection for 2 hours for something like this.

[timokay]

Do you really expect anyone to spend over an hour downloading a 200 mb video of you pointing at clouds? I mean I was going to just for the sheer heck of it, but I'm not tying up my internet connection for 2 hours for something like this.

Exactly.

Post the lottery picks, and impress us.
No one is going to download your video.
It proves nothing and is a waste of time.

Nothing else is relevant here. Just post the numbers.

[ChristineR]

I will attempt to watch the video. 200 mb isn't that much on a broadband connection, which I have at home. It's quite fast at night. What I don't have is a lot of time to dedicate to this, but I'll give it a shot.

[The_Fire]

I'm downloading as well. Flatrate broadband rocks!

[nathan]

the link to the avi
http://www.sendspace.com/file/uxtgbw
What is this supposed to show? It appears to show some random shots of clouds, some blank pieces and some shots of somone lying on the floor. I see nothing bizarre about it,

[rjh01]

Supernaturalbeing powers are no greater than mine. Oh Dear. Why don't you, supernaturalbeing, go and see a doctor and get treated for your sickness?

[supernaturalbeing]

At minutes 12 and 26 one can see the clouds disappear, but are normal at the beginning of filming.
Somehow the tape got recorded over. I hadn't reviewed since I was at the taping.
But, any comments on the awesomeness of the clouds, or the authinicty that they disappeared(Only the ones at the focus of camera)?
I'm sure one wouldn't notice anything paranormal, but any suggestions
on how to make it obvious that I was making the cloud disappear? I would film again tomorrow if it would ever win me some money.

[rjh01]

How about 2 minutes worth of film. At the start it is cloudy. At the end it is a clear day. Better yet tell us where and when you are going to do it and we can all watch. That would be paranormal.

But you summed it up yourself. "I'm sure one wouldn't notice anything paranormal,... "

What more is there to say? Apart from what I said in my previous post?

[nathan]

At minutes 12 and 26 one can see the clouds disappear, but are normal at the beginning of filming.
During both those minutes the camera is panning all over the sky. The reason clouds disappear is that the camera is panning past them and they go out of frame :)

Minutes 13, 14 & 15 show a cloud disappating. It seems that there's movement from the right moving clouds into some different air. As clouds reach that, they disappate. It's a little hard to tell if that is actually what is happening as the camera does move somewhat. The video doesn't show what then happens to the next cloud that is following the disappated cloud.

[eri]

The JREF has already stated that it won't accept cloud-busting for the challenge, simply because clouds disappear on their own. If you're planning to apply for the million, you'll need to do something bigger - like make a hurricane disappear. If you can make one cloud disappear, you can make a hurricane disappear, right?


Editted because I can't spell.

[Hitch]

I'm thinking of submitting my own claim. Does anybody want to download a video of paint drying because of my presence?

[rjh01]

In order to outdo a certain other person the video will be 500MB in size.

[kedo1981]

I think it’s more amazing that a self delusional retard like you can upload videos

[Admiral]

Supernaturalbeing: You're not convincing anyone with the cloud video, especially since you admit that there isn't anything paranormal that occurs in it.

Let's get back to the lottery numbers! Can you or can you not predict them?

[supernaturalbeing]

North Texas Paranormal Researchers has finally reached a verdict on my tape.
They will publish the results in May at their website. They told me they want another tape just to make sure before they test me for $10,000.

[Freethinker]

North Texas Paranormal Researchers has finally reached a verdict on my tape.
They will publish the results in May at their website. They told me they want another tape just to make sure before they test me for $10,000.

My grandpa taught me this trick when I was 5. Pick a cloud, any cloud and he'd make it disappear. Turns out that if you watch most any cloud for 10 minutes it will disappear.

[ChristineR]

Are these the guys?

http://www.ntskeptics.org/

They have a $12,000 challenge. I'm afraid they aren't likely to judge your tapes to be paranormal either....

[petre]

Are these the guys?

http://www.ntskeptics.org/

They have a $12,000 challenge. I'm afraid they aren't likely to judge your tapes to be paranormal either....

Sounds likely they're requiring a tape as a preliminary to an actual test.

[supernaturalbeing]

http://www.sendspace.com/file/0v2cwu
My first link had alot of garbage on it.
This one is the complete couple hours of taping with no breaks.
Pretty Awesome.

[GzuzKryzt]

http://www.sendspace.com/file/0v2cwu
My first link had alot of garbage on it.
This one is the complete couple hours of taping with no breaks.
Pretty Awesome.

Not to me.

Adam, do you intend to apply for JREF Challenge, although cloudbusting claims won't get accepted?

[oddball]

the link to the avi
http://www.sendspace.com/file/uxtgbw

Suggest converting to a compressed format such as mpg or wmv

[supernaturalbeing]

Is anyone still reading these posts...I can update the information on them, maybe some new evidence or something...

[GzuzKryzt]

Is anyone still reading these posts...I can update the information on them, maybe some new evidence or something...

Three plus years. Wow.



Sorry, Adam. You screwed the pooch earlier this millenium when you were nowhere to be found to predict your lotto numbers. You had your chance.

[MattC]

Three plus years. Wow.



Sorry, Adam. You screwed the pooch earlier this millenium when you were nowhere to be found to predict your lotto numbers. You had your chance.

Oh, give the man another go, for his name alone if nothing else.

~ Matt

[supernaturalbeing]

I'm back. Feels swell.

[NoZed Avenger]

nm.

[Moochie]

Looking at some of the back issues of their newsletter (http://www.ntskeptics.org/), I'm wondering just how "skeptical these North Texas Skeptics are. Among other things, they appear to fully endorse sCAM. I think their skepticism may be quite narrowly defined.


M.

[GanipGnop]

Is anyone still reading these posts...I can update the information on them, maybe some new evidence or something...

Sorry, we've moved on to other deluded frauds, Now of course if you start posting wining lottery numbers here BEFORE the lottery happens you might get our interest back.

So until then Woo to you

[GzuzKryzt]

I'm back. Feels swell.

...
Adam, do you intend to apply for JREF Challenge, although cloudbusting claims won't get accepted?

Well?

[CriticalThanking]

Looking at some of the back issues of their newsletter (http://www.ntskeptics.org/), I'm wondering just how "skeptical these North Texas Skeptics are. Among other things, they appear to fully endorse sCAM. I think their skepticism may be quite narrowly defined.


M.Do you have a link to the sCAM discussion? I looked at a couple of the newsletters and could not find anything.

Thanks,

CT

[Moochie]

Do you have a link to the sCAM discussion? I looked at a couple of the newsletters and could not find anything.

Thanks,

CT

I'll have to retract what I wrote since I can't find the page I recall seeing. It featured an ad for a sCAM shop opening up in town, and elsewhere what seemed like a pro-sCAM discussion. Maybe it was on a linked site and had nothing to do with NTS. Sorry.


M.

[Audible Click]

I'll have to retract what I wrote since I can't find the page I recall seeing. It featured an ad for a sCAM shop opening up in town, and elsewhere what seemed like a pro-sCAM discussion. Maybe it was on a linked site and had nothing to do with NTS. Sorry.


M.

That's what you get for wandering around the internet unprotected. :)

[Moochie]

That's what you get for wandering around the internet unprotected. :)

Heh heh, that's one of the reasons I visit the forum, for all the good-quality links. And then that link links to somewhere else, and on it goes. It's like that phenomenon of "losing time." :)


M.

[GzuzKryzt]

...
Adam, do you intend to apply for JREF Challenge, although cloudbusting claims won't get accepted?

Well?

[supernaturalbeing]

Hey,
I would apply again for the challenge but they said that they don't do cloud busting though.

[jsfisher]

Hey,
I would apply again for the challenge but they said that they don't do cloud busting though.

Well, be that as it may, can you please tell me, specifically, what your claim is? What, specifically, will you do, and how will we know you did it?

[Julia Finley]

I'm working on this task.
I've got a laptop now.
Got a good job.
Girlfriend.
Haven't been able to post for a while, I guess cause they're upgrading there computers.
I found about ten millions dollars worth of money they are giving away for paranormal stuff.
I was able to do 2 out of three numbers for the New York pick three for a week. That was a profit of $400 a day, buying one set of tickets.
Still got a while before I can setup and try again.
Adam
Are (or were) these the facts, that inform you you are a supernatural being?

[wardenclyffe]

There's always www.iigwest.org. They are clearly willing to test people.

Ward

[supernaturalbeing]

I'm going to retest but I need to figure something to do. They don't do the cloud busting. I'll have to think of something. How about...
the same thing with smoke and glass tubes....
I would stand behind a glass and if the smoke disappears then I win.
I guess the smoke would not have to disappear by itself to know it is paranormal.

[GzuzKryzt]

I'm going to retest but I need to figure something to do. They don't do the cloud busting. I'll have to think of something. How about...
the same thing with smoke and glass tubes....
I would stand behind a glass and if the smoke disappears then I win.
I guess the smoke would not have to disappear by itself to know it is paranormal.

Adam, you might want to consider that your (nick)name is supernaturalbeing, but you don't actually are a supernatural being.

Good day and good luck in all your endeavours.

[biomorph]

I'm going to retest but I need to figure something to do. They don't do the cloud busting. I'll have to think of something. How about...
the same thing with smoke and glass tubes....
I would stand behind a glass and if the smoke disappears then I win.
I guess the smoke would not have to disappear by itself to know it is paranormal.


assuming it disappears at all.

try putting a smoke alarm detector in the (sealed) glass tube.

if you can stop the alarm and still works on the same batteries when reintroduced to smoke, that might give you some data.....

however smoke is not water vapor, as in clouds.

How do make the comparison, vis a vis?

[Uncayimmy]

assuming it disappears at all.

try putting a smoke alarm detector in the (sealed) glass tube.

if you can stop the alarm and still works on the same batteries when reintroduced to smoke, that might give you some data.....

however smoke is not water vapor, as in clouds.

How do make the comparison, vis a vis?

Smoke disappears on its own. The airborne solid and liquid particles settle somewhere eventually. The gases should remain gases assuming the temperature and pressure are right and there are no nucleation sites.

[biomorph]

Smoke disappears on its own. The airborne solid and liquid particles settle somewhere eventually. The gases should remain gases assuming the temperature and pressure are right and there are no nucleation sites.

Yes it does, so we time how long that takes to settle to get a standard to work from, cut the time in half (or whatever) and applicant must beat time. several times even...

I can still see some sceneario with party smoke generator, an alarmclock, smoke alarm unit several 600mm clear perspex tubes, and a number of persons wearing breathing apparatus.

Sounds like that firefighters party I went to the other night........lol

I think the idea would be to have enough smoke, and not enough time for it to settle, perhaps.

I sorta thought along those lines after I posted.

what do you think UncaYimmy ?

[Uncayimmy]

Yes it does, so we time how long that takes to settle to get a standard to work from, cut the time in half (or whatever) and applicant must beat time. several times even...

I can still see some sceneario with party smoke generator, an alarmclock, smoke alarm unit several 600mm clear perspex tubes, and a number of persons wearing breathing apparatus.

Sounds like that firefighters party I went to the other night........lol

I think the idea would be to have enough smoke, and not enough time for it to settle, perhaps.

I sorta thought along those lines after I posted.

what do you think UncaYimmy ?

Honestly, I prefer not to come up with claims for people to make. From what I can gather he hasn't even tried to do it yet. It's hard to come up with a protocol without knowing the claim. And without the affidavits and press coverage, how do we know he actually thinks he can do it?

That said, you first need to decide when the smoke has cleared. It has to be self-evident, not an opinion. I'm assuming your smoke alarm is supposed to handle that, which brings up the issue of calibration. After that, how much data do you need to draw a baseline? What's the guarantee that you can reproduce the conditions?

Assuming you resolve all that, which you know the claimant is never gonna do, I say you present two containers in each trial and have him do his mini-cloud busting on just one within a set time period. Lather, rinse, repeat.

[biomorph]

Honestly, I prefer not to come up with claims for people to make. From what I can gather he hasn't even tried to do it yet. It's hard to come up with a protocol without knowing the claim. And without the affidavits and press coverage, how do we know he actually thinks he can do it?

true.



That said, you first need to decide when the smoke has cleared. It has to be self-evident, not an opinion. I'm assuming your smoke alarm is supposed to handle that, which brings up the issue of calibration.



sure, I agree, calibration is probably a solveable issue tho, somehow....I admit to not having at the mo a calibration system already..lol



After that, how much data do you need to draw a baseline?


no idea, perhaps not a lot.


What's the guarantee that you can reproduce the conditions?


well, if testing smoke alarms isn't relatively reproducible, i dunno.


Assuming you resolve all that, which you know the claimant is never gonna do,

possibly, I cant take you on faith tho, I'm sure you understand. However you are probably right.

I dunno what the claiment might do. "Never" is a big word in a small dictionary.


I say you present two containers in each trial and have him do his mini-cloud busting on just one within a set time period. Lather, rinse, repeat.

I agree with you, i'm sorta trying to get him to self assess, not test.

If he can stop a basic smoke alarm in a simple way (vaguarities aside for the mo), hey, he's worth millions already, never mind the challange.

but yeh, perhaps i didn't ought to be encouraging fools to be fools..

[Brattus]

true.




sure, I agree, calibration is probably a solveable issue tho, somehow....I admit to not having at the mo a calibration system already..lol



no idea, perhaps not a lot.



well, if testing smoke alarms isn't relatively reproducible, i dunno.


possibly, I cant take you on faith tho, I'm sure you understand. However you are probably right.

I dunno what the claiment might do. "Never" is a big word in a small dictionary.


I agree with you, i'm sorta trying to get him to self assess, not test.

If he can stop a basic smoke alarm in a simple way (vaguarities aside for the mo), hey, he's worth millions already, never mind the challange.

but yeh, perhaps i didn't ought to be encouraging fools to be fools..

I'm going to retest but I need to figure something to do. They don't do the cloud busting. I'll have to think of something. How about...
the same thing with smoke and glass tubes....
I would stand behind a glass and if the smoke disappears then I win.
I guess the smoke would not have to disappear by itself to know it is paranormal.

Dude never posted a thing about stopping smoke alarms.
He said he could stand behind glass and look at smoke on the other side of the glass untill it eventually dissipates.
Since this awesome feat could never be done by anyone else, he would get a million big ones.
That is his claim no stopping smoke alarms.

[fromdownunder]

Dude never posted a thing about stopping smoke alarms.
He said he could stand behind glass and look at smoke on the other side of the glass untill it eventually dissipates.
Since this awesome feat could never be done by anyone else, he would get a million big ones.
That is his claim no stopping smoke alarms.

My understanding is that the alarm is just there to objectively measure whether or not the smoke disappears more quickly than if it just dissipates at a normal rate.

If he stops the smoke in one container, the alarm will (naturally) stop. Without something to objectively measure if the smoke has been "supernaturally" removed, you could end up with:

a: "Look, the smoke is gone."
b: "no it hasn't"

Norm

[biomorph]

Dude never posted a thing about stopping smoke alarms.
He said he could stand behind glass and look at smoke on the other side of the glass untill it eventually dissipates.
Since this awesome feat could never be done by anyone else, he would get a million big ones.
That is his claim no stopping smoke alarms.

actually thats a valid point....he does acknowledge the smoke will disappear, just that when he does it, its paranormal?

If that's your point, then yup. That's a little different than smoke does or does not disappear.

[biomorph]

My understanding is that the alarm is just there to objectively measure whether or not the smoke disappears more quickly than if it just dissipates at a normal rate.

If he stops the smoke in one container, the alarm will (naturally) stop. Without something to objectively measure if the smoke has been "supernaturally" removed, you could end up with:

a: "Look, the smoke is gone."
b: "no it hasn't"



Norm

Yes thats exactly what I was getting at. Also and as well.

[biomorph]

One of these is perhaps an option, see your local auto shop.....

auto smoke testing kits (http://www.autologicco.com/p_smoke.html)

[rjh01]

Problem. If you use two smoke detectors one may be more sensitive than the other. So you need to run several tests each time swapping over the detectors.

But really post 67 says to me what supernatural ability he has ... none.

[Brattus]

My understanding is that the alarm is just there to objectively measure whether or not the smoke disappears more quickly than if it just dissipates at a normal rate.

If he stops the smoke in one container, the alarm will (naturally) stop. Without something to objectively measure if the smoke has been "supernaturally" removed, you could end up with:

a: "Look, the smoke is gone."
b: "no it hasn't"

Norm
Smoke alarms activate ONLY. They do not turn themselves off once the smoke is gone.
The only purpose a smoke alarm serves is to warn people that smoke is present.
The smoke alarm will continue to beep until the reset is hit or the batteries run out.

[fromdownunder]

Smoke alarms activate ONLY. They do not turn themselves off once the smoke is gone.
The only purpose a smoke alarm serves is to warn people that smoke is present.
The smoke alarm will continue to beep until the reset is hit or the batteries run out.

I have a smoke detector in my unit which goes off when I burn toast. I simply open the windows, the smoke goes away, and the alarm turns off. No replacement of batteries necessary.

Norm

[Brattus]

Problem. If you use two smoke detectors one may be more sensitive than the other. So you need to run several tests each time swapping over the detectors.

But really post 67 says to me what supernatural ability he has ... none.

You would think with his paranormal powers over clouds he could simply cause the clouds to spell out his name.

[Brattus]

I have a smoke detector in my unit which goes off when I burn toast. I simply open the windows, the smoke goes away, and the alarm goes off. No replacement of batteries necessary.

Norm
Point taken. I was wrong about that. Sorry!

[biomorph]

You would think with his paranormal powers over clouds he could simply cause the clouds to spell out his name.

now that would be impressive.....

[TSR]

Smoke alarms activate ONLY. They do not turn themselves off once the smoke is gone.
The only purpose a smoke alarm serves is to warn people that smoke is present.
The smoke alarm will continue to beep until the reset is hit or the batteries run out.

.
Ummm, no. At least not for consumer models -- this is demonstrated pretty much every time Alex makes dinner.
.

[Uncayimmy]

actually thats a valid point....he does acknowledge the smoke will disappear, just that when he does it, its paranormal?

If that's your point, then yup. That's a little different than smoke does or does not disappear.

What if it's all a setup? Maybe he really can control smoke alarms, and this is his backhanded way of winning the million. Pretty clever, huh?

[biomorph]

What if it's all a setup? Maybe he really can control smoke alarms, and this is his backhanded way of winning the million. Pretty clever, huh?

You know, I hadn't thought of that.

However you appear to have cottoned on to his dastardley scheme............so clever yes, just not clever enough.......lol:p

[supernaturalbeing]

I took the advice and went to http://www.iigwest.org/
they are offering to review the tape of clouds and then let me
know if I can try for their $50,000
in the meanwhile, I'm trying to test with JREF again, just need a good protocol.


Adam

[supernaturalbeing]

There is some good ideas. One is making two tubes of smoke and only the win that wins a coin toss disappears. That would be easily done.
Its good logical thinking. But there is a problem.
The reason clouds disappear is because they are formed when water droplets gather in numbers enough to keep the sun from making the droplets water vapor, thus they become clouds. So, the reason they disappear is because I move the clouds so that they thin out and the sun evaporates them. I did this by flipping a coin and picking one of two clouds to disappear. Both didn't disappear, just the one that won the coin toss. I did this ten times in my preliminary challenge but only got 5 clouds to disappear out of 20. But the five that did disappear were the ones that won the coin toss, thus eliminating that chance made the clouds disappear. I would have to have gotten 7 out of 20 clouds to disappear, the guy that did my test told me, so that is why I didn't win the challenge.
I'll continue in next post...

[supernaturalbeing]

The problem with making smoke disappear is why it disappears. It would have to made of water droplets to work the same way. I was actually thinking that I could make smoke that is moving in a straight up direction
set off a detector that is at a right angle of it. So, all I would do is move the smoke 90 degrees, not make it disappear. To prove that it is paranormal, I could do 7 out 20 that were chosen by a coin toss. Genius idea! Before arguing the value of a test, remember that the 13 out of 20 would remain normal, that is, in line heading upwads, like smoke usually does.
Adam

[Akhenaten]

Even better. Deflection of the flow of steam in a tube could be measured with something as simple as a thermometer.

[Uncayimmy]

Skeptics love to jump through hoops to try to get a claimant to jump through just one hoop. You don't need suggestions for a protocol at this point. In fact you don't even need suggestions for a reasonable self-test. What you need to do is, well, anything that you think demonstrates your ability. Hypothetical experiments are a waste of time. Go do something even if it is just with rudimentary controls that are not sufficient for a real test. Repeat it a number of times and track your results.

When you've done that, come back here and make a report. I, for one, will be glad to then assist you in determining if anything paranormal is going on and offer suggestions for better controls. Until, how about we avoid the inevitable merry-go-round of all the things you think you could do but haven't actually tried?

[alleracsum]

Hypothetical experiments are a waste of time. Go do something even if it is just with rudimentary controls that are not sufficient for a real test. Repeat it a number of times and track your results.


My sentiments exactly. You don't need a theory, or a "cause" (the IIG has no interest in that anyway) -- you just need an "effect".

There are plenty of simple things you could set up and try in your own home, just to see what reliably occurs (or doesn't) and refine from there.

How about a tea pot or a vaporizer in a sealed room? Use a lamp to "backlight" the vapor so you can see it with the naked eye. Stand perfectly still across the room, wait 30 seconds (for air currents to die down) and see if you can move the vapor in some idiosyncratic way. If you can effect clouds a mile overhead you should be able to make something interesting happen to that steam from across the room.

[supernaturalbeing]

the link to a video I made of the supernatural cloud busting...
only 40mb
the first one I got impatient, but the second one you'll watch twice...

http://www.sendspace.com/file/n1mspz

[supernaturalbeing]

how could measuring temperature help me....
sounds like a good idea

[GzuzKryzt]

the link to a video I made of the supernatural cloud busting...
only 40mb
the first one I got impatient, but the second one you'll watch twice...

http://www.sendspace.com/file/n1mspz

Adam, you were told time and time again that cloudbusting is neither accepted for the MDC nor is it to be considered paranormal, since there are a number of way more likely explanations for it:

1. Wind.
2. Wind.
3. Wind.

Good day Adam. I wish you all the best in your future endeavours.

[supernaturalbeing]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLLbdurxo5E
this one wasn't me, but check it out

this is one is me the same as the link above but on youtube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXztiedwF9Q

[Cuddles]

This section of the forum is for discussing the million dollar challenge. Since it has been made clear that cloudbusting is not eligible for the challenge, any discussion about it should be taken to a more appropriate section, such as General Skepticism or Science.

[Raconteur]

Hi Adam, do you have any update on the lottery thing? Have you abandoned that? You said that it cost you a lot of money to do it, but there's no reason for you to spend any money at all. Just choose a lottery and tell us what the numbers are going to be before they are drawn. From what I can tell, you claim to be able to pick winning lottery numbers at a far greater rate than could be done by chance. If you can consistently show that that is true, then I'm sure that everybody could have a much more productive discussion. People want to see something concrete.

You said something earlier about only being able to pick 2 out of 3. Come here and post those 2 before the draw is made.

[GzuzKryzt]

Adam had this (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?postid=1140506#post1140506) opportunity. He failed to even post the numbers.

After his no-show, he did not show up on the forum for two months. After that: Excuses, more talk about cloudbusting, videos galore but no prediction of lottery numbers or anything concrete.

[supernaturalbeing]

The theory I posted is real simple, the facts are:
* a friend and I did pick threes for a week in NYC, we got all the numbers correctly
*my friend says that it is nearly impossible for a him to help me with this and continue to be accurate
*I emailed the numbers to my ex girlfriend in NYC from SC., She didn't buy tickets and concluded that she didn't want to perticipate so we ended our trials.
*at the time SC didn't have a lottery

okay....

before we did this, I already new that I could do this with a laptop, the trick being that it works with any recorded media...complex but true

so, the toll it takes on people wouldn't be worth the little bit of money I could get out of it.

I know if setup recorded media, i.e. the laptop, I could make plenty of money without any hardship.

The problem is that somehow I can't find the opportunity to do this simple thing...this theory.

Just a month ago, they towed my car that was legally parked, and of course it had alot of time and money invested in to so that I could eventually continue this project. So, its not that there is something wrong with me but it proves that I have to invest alot of money. I had about $9000 in the car. I can't pay the $700 towing charge. I'm going to take them to court, that will cost $300 to try to get it back.

[Ladewig]

[irrelevant story]

so, the toll it takes on people wouldn't be worth the little bit of money I could get out of it.


This has been explained many times, but I'll give it one more go. You don't have to actually buy the lottery tickets. You just have to posts the numbers before the drawing. If you can perform that feat better than chance, you could walk away with one-million dollars.

[Ladewig]

The theory I posted is real simple, the facts are:
* a friend and I did pick threes for a week in NYC, we got all the numbers correctly


I should just walk away from this post, but the ridiculousness of this claim just bugs me. NY pick three pays $500 for a correct number. That means if you spent one dollar on the first day, you would have won $500. If you used all $500 on the second day you would have had $250,000. If you bet all that money, on the third day you would have had $125,000,000.

4th day = $62,500,000,000
5th day = $31.250 trillion
6th day = $15.625 quadrillion
7th day = $7.812 quintillion

You claim you "did pick threes for a week in NYC, we got all the numbers correct."
Ya Shure, go ahead and pull the other leg.

. . . . . . . . . . . . .
footnote, the odds of getting the pick three right on any single drawing is 1000 to 1.


. . . . . . . . . . . . .
ETA: I am assuming that you selected only one pick-three drawing each day. The NY state lottery offers a midday and an evening drawing for their pick-three game. If you got both drawings correct for seven consecutive days then your winnings would be 500^14.

[supernaturalbeing]

I see how people come up with ridicilous numbers. If I invested the whole $500 dollars winning into the next days numbers then I would make more money. But, first they're not going to print 500 tickets for you. That would probably take hours. Second, they would get suspicious after a couple of drawings if I buy that many tickets(the lottery commission). But I get the point, if I buy multible tickets that increases my winnings. Hadn't thought of that, I was mostly concerned about the procedure.

[petre]

There is generally a cap on total paid winnings for most lotteries, where if all of the players win more than that, the cap amount is paid instead split among the winning players (in a ratio of what they would have won realative to one another commonly).

I'm unfamiliar with how long they spend printing a lottery ticket, but at 10 seconds per ticket 500 tickets would take 5000 seconds, or between 1-2 hours. If it's worth it to a ticket sale location to spend 10 seconds plus the time of the purchase to earn $1, I would think they'd be more than happy to spend 5000 seconds plus the time of just one purchase to earn $500.

The lottery folks may become suspicious, just as anyone would become suspicious if they encountered the results of a clearly paranormal event. It's kind of accepted that if you're going to explore the paranormal and share your results, that people will notice something unusual.

[rjh01]

Here is an alternative to buying tatts tickets.
1. Publish them here every week a day or so before the draw.
2. Many people buy tickets with these numbers.
3. These numbers win.
4. The prize is so small for several weeks as to raise alarm.
5. This site gets massive media coverage.

[Ladewig]

I see how people come up with ridicilous numbers.

I didn't come up with the ridiculous numbers. You came up with the ridiculous numbers when you claimed you predicted seven consecutive pick-threes. I was just illustrating how outlandish your claim was.

The odds of doing that are so astronomical that your hypothetical winnings dwarf the entire monetary supply of the world.

The chances of that occurring through non-supernatural means is 1 in 1 sextillion. Even the name doesn't give enough to fully understand how preposterously large that number is. Let me type it out 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

I have no idea whether you are a amatuer liar, a professional liar, a compulsive liar, or simply someone suffering from a mental illness. All I know is that truth value of post #101 is zero.



. . . . . . . . .
But, first they're not going to print 500 tickets for you. You don't have to buy 500 tickets, NY state's pick-three game allows you to wager more than one dollar on a ticket.


ETA: my bad. I was wrong. The maximum bet per ticket is $1.

[supernaturalbeing]

Hello,
I'm back.

Here's my lottery stats...

I played the 3 pick in NYC and won all 5 times I played.
I played the Florida 5 pick (my brother helped) we got 4 out of 5. You would think it was worth thousands...but we only got 8 dollars.
I played the Georgia multi million and out 4 out of 6 numbers right the other 2 numbers were off by only a couple of numbers each.
In horse racing I manage to double my investments but its less than $100.
I'm now living in Texas. Will try their lotteries when I get a chance.

I know...why not keep making a little bit of money and it will eventually add up...
Well, I've talked about this before.
Each event requires investment.
Time...I write about science stuff. So I have to spend alot of time studing and writing. I can't take time off until the stuff is finished because its so complex. It takes alot of time to make what little money I have to pay for cellphone and other bills.
Money...I'm disabled so not very much income. These lotteries require money in the form of supplies and people to help me do the stuff.
Lots patience. I can't just pick numbers one after the other. I have to invest a month for each try.

Other than that I have a good track record. I have close friends that know about how lucky I am. Of course, I have thousands of friends cause I'm very popular...but no one wants to work for free. That seems to be the quickest and easiest way to finally win something big.

[supernaturalbeing]

This stuff is worth more than all the money in the world...
If I had enough investment I could just gamble on stocks...and of course win.
Then who's the joker then...

[jsfisher]

Hello,
I'm back.

Here's my lottery stats...


Ok, would you be willing to put your skills to a test we can all verify? For example, you could repeat the five Pick-3 trials, but post your picks here before the Lottery selects the actual numbers.

I can understand if you'd prefer not to expose your picks before each event, so I'll offer an alternative: Post a reliable "hash" of your picks; then we can all verify your picks after the fact.

Here is a link (http://www.miraclesalad.com/webtools/md5.php) to a decent MD5 hash generator. Here's how it might work. You might post in this thread: 2bd1760a3c6d4bac774766b96d441043. No one here can deduce what text you used to generate that hash, but after the Pick-3 event is completed, you can reveal the text as "02/07/2013: 3 4 5 sdfsdfsad", meaning your Pick-3 pick was 345 for the 02/07 draw. (The "sdfsdfsad" is just random text you'd add to the end so we cannot deduce your picks by trial and error.)

Are you willing to put your skills to a verifiable test?

[Ladewig]

Hello,
I'm back.

Here's my lottery stats...

I played the 3 pick in NYC and won all 5 times I played.

Welcome back.

Discussions on skeptic boards never get very far unless specific terms are clearly defined. When you played the pick-3 game in NYC, can you tell us precisely how much you wagered and precisely how much you won?

ETA: Also, would you describe the type(s) of bets you were making? Straight play, Box play, Combination play, etc.

I ask the question because I used to work with a woman who frequently bragged about how often she would win the daily lottery. I later found out that many of her "wins" involved $50 of wagers producing $20 in prizes. Her definition of winning the lottery was very different from my definition of winning the lottery.

[kedo1981]

"Who's the joker" indeed!

[Almo]

I played the Georgia multi million and out 4 out of 6 numbers right the other 2 numbers were off by only a couple of numbers each.

Suppose a lottery draw is 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
Which of these picks is closer to winning?

1, 2, 3, 4, 5
5, 35, 36, 37, 38

Neither. There is no such thing as "off by a couple of numbers".

[supernaturalbeing]

Suppose a lottery draw is 5, 6, 7, 8, 9.
Which of these picks is closer to winning?

1, 2, 3, 4, 5
5, 35, 36, 37, 38

Neither. There is no such thing as "off by a couple of numbers".

Yeah but I got three numbers actually correct.
And I only played that lottery once...not 10 or a hundred times...

[supernaturalbeing]

Okay I will post some lottery stuff.
The date of posting will validate the time frames, and a link to the offical lottery results will validate the winning numbers. The winning numbers will come up a week or two after I post my "guess" of winning numbers. This is because I may not be playing the next avialable lottery but one within a week or two of posting. Also, I don't need to worry about somebody "stealing" the numbers, because there are sooo many lotteries. Mine will be from Texas.

[Foolmewunz]

Okay I will post some lottery stuff.
The date of posting will validate the time frames, and a link to the offical lottery results will validate the winning numbers. The winning numbers will come up a week or two after I post my "guess" of winning numbers. This is because I may not be playing the next avialable lottery but one within a week or two of posting. Also, I don't need to worry about somebody "stealing" the numbers, because there are sooo many lotteries. Mine will be from Texas.

A week or two? How about three? Maybe 4? You do realize that if you're trying to get 3 numbers (say out of a 6 or 7 ball draw), you're simply multiplying your chances of guessing correctly.

Can you state your exact intent, please?
How many numbers are in the Texas draw?
How many are you going to pick? All of them, or as above are you trying for three and then hoping for two so that you can say you were close.
What's the time limit? As mentioned above, the odds increase that you get a low number of them correct with each ensuing draw.

(My wife played the Hong Kong Mark VI Lottery twice a week for years and quite often got 2 out of 7 (of 49 possible numbers). They don't even pay out for 2; it's not that uncommon.)

[yairhol]

Your posts here date back more than 3 years claiming to be able to guess the winning lottery numbers yet not even once did you post any guess a day before the drawing. Just a day, not more. Do it now. Stop wasting our time. You claim to have special powers so stop talking about your ex-girlfriend, your brother and your friend who helped you. Give us the numbers for the next drawing. That's all.

[Ladewig]

Your posts here date back more than 3 years claiming to be able to guess the winning lottery numbers yet not even once did you post any guess a day before the drawing. Just a day, not more. Do it now. Stop wasting our time. You claim to have special powers so stop talking about your ex-girlfriend, your brother and your friend who helped you. Give us the numbers for the next drawing. That's all.

Well, to be fair to Supernaturalbeing, perhaps his power is not that precise. Perhaps the ritual/calculations/premonitions simply say these six numbers are going to appear as a group sometime in the next six draws. I have no problem with a paranormal power being that imprecise - even if it worked at that level, one would still become a multimillionaire in less than a month.

..................

That being said...



I played the 3 pick in NYC and won all 5 times I played.

Welcome back.

Discussions on skeptic boards never get very far unless specific terms are clearly defined. When you played the pick-3 game in NYC, can you tell us precisely how much you wagered and precisely how much you won?

ETA: Also, would you describe the type(s) of bets you were making? Straight play, Box play, Combination play, etc.


...until I get an answer to this question, I am going to have to consider the very real possibility that our distinguished colleague is nothing more than a BS artist. Or as they might say in Texas, all hat and no cattle.

So how about it: how much did you wager and how much did you win when you allegedly " played the 3 pick in NYC and won all 5 times"?