What it's like in Iraq at the Moment - Insurgents resurgent

[a_unique_person]

Brutal propaganda videos distributed by Iraqi insurgents underscore the growing challenge that confronts US and Iraqi security forces. By Paul McGeough in Baghdad.
THE masked gunman cradles a sniper's rifle as he sits in the back of a car. Speaking to the camera, he taunts America's President with a chilling outline of his planned mission: "I'm going to give George Bush a small present. I have nine bullets — with each I'll shoot someone and, before your eyes, I'll give the present to Bush."
Getting out of the car in a built-up area, he heads over rough ground to the corner of a building.
The recording then cuts to a tightly spliced sequence of nine shootings, in which the targets appear to be members of the American or Iraqi security forces. It is pure and brutal propaganda. Some of the images are blurred and there is no proof that the man with the gun has even fired the shots. Each target seems to collapse as a single gunshot is heard, but there is no attempt to verify the gunman's claim that he has killed the victim.
Nonetheless, this and three other video CDs gathered recently by The Age in Sunni communities near Baghdad are a graphic indication of how an emboldened insurgency is arming itself with high-tech propaganda as well as low-tech weaponry.







According to this, the insurgency is now self sustaining.




http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/insurgents-resurgent/2006/02/13/1139679533312.html

One sniper, for example, can tie down 150 troops backed by air support for a day, and then escape on a bicycle.

[Dr Adequate]

That is not particularly hi-tech. So they have video cameras? Wow, how did technology of this power and sophistication fall into their hands?

On the other hand, congratulations ... you were well clear of the fin that time.

[Skeptic]

Brutal propaganda videos distributed by Iraqi insurgents underscore the growing challenge that confronts US and Iraqi security forces

Why, yes, propaganda videos distributed by the terrorists (sorry, "insurgents", sorry, "freedom fighters") are just the place to look for objective information about Iraq.

You're a sucker for this sort of thing, aren't you, AUP?

[a_unique_person]

That is not particularly hi-tech. So they have video cameras? Wow, how did technology of this power and sophistication fall into their hands?

On the other hand, congratulations ... you were well clear of the fin that time.

If you read the article, it is very interesting, going into a good level of detail. "Hi-tech" is a beat up perhaps, but the insurgency is, from sources in the article, not going to go away till it wants to.

[WildCat]

One sniper, for example, can tie down 150 troops backed by air support for a day, and then escape on a bicycle.
Absolute nonsense. A sniper takes one shot, and then gets the hell out of Dodge. Because after that 1st shot his position is made, and he'll soon be dead if he sticks around.

[rikzilla]

According to this, the insurgency is now self sustaining.




http://www.theage.com.au/news/world/insurgents-resurgent/2006/02/13/1139679533312.html

One sniper, for example, can tie down 150 troops backed by air support for a day, and then escape on a bicycle.

But "tie down" these 150 troops from doing what? Look AUP; chasing the sniper iis the raison d'etre for the troops you know. Sure the weak insurgency is keeping these guys from coming home and killing/maiming the unlucky ones but calling the insurgency "resurgent" is a ridiculous reach for a bit of word play ala Johnny Cochran.

That's perception; hyperbole; smoke and mirrors AUP. Here's a bit of reality; 75 percent of the Iraqi Army brigades will be in the lead in counterinsurgency operations, and by the fall, 80 percent of the Iraqi Army divisions in the lead. (http://www.mnf-iraq.com/Transcripts/060119.htm)
Of interest, in June, in terms of Iraqi security forces being in the lead, in June four battalions - correction, four brigades and 11 battalions were in the lead in counterinsurgency operations in their respective areas. And I've defined that before in terms of what that means of being the lead. They are in the lead in that they planned and executed counterinsurgency operations with minimal coalition support.



So in June, it was four brigades and 11 battalions; today, it's one division, eight brigades and 37 battalions.

Zarqawi has little to show for his vaunted insurgency except a lot of videos of beheaded women and Asian contract workers. His Sunnis voted to join an American-sponsored government. And now, despite the odd bomb, his insurgency is old news.

-z

[Skeptic]

One sniper, for example, can tie down 150 troops backed by air support for a day, and then escape on a bicycle.

In military terms, this is the equivalent of saying "2+2, for example, is 34,554.234*pi", for reasons Wildcat and others noted.

But such abyssimal ignorance naturally does not stop our resident armchair commander-in-chief from playing grand strategist, and becoming deeply insulted when the generals do not follow his insights.

Ah well.

P.S.

The "escape on a bicycle" part is particularly, if unintentionally, funny. How about we try this in real life, AUP? You get the bicycle, I get the 150 troops and air support. If you escape, you win...

Zarqawi has little to show for his vaunted insurgency except a lot of videos of beheaded women and Asian contract workers. His Sunnis voted to join an American-sponsored government. And now, despite the odd bomb, his insurgency is old news.

But... but... that's not what his propaganda videos say!

[Manny]

No, no. It's time to face facts. The war is unwinnable (http://www.imao.us/archives/004800.html).

[Skeptic]

No, no. It's time to face facts. The war is unwinnable (http://www.imao.us/archives/004800.html).

Heh. Quite funny, that one.

[Manny]

But wait, there's more. Measured by the premium demanded to comparable-maturity treasury bonds, does the market have more confidence in:

a) Iraq's ability to make good on its debt obligations, or

b) General Motor's ability to make good on its debt obligations?

[rikzilla]

But wait, there's more. Measured by the premium demanded to comparable-maturity treasury bonds, does the market have more confidence in:

a) Iraq's ability to make good on its debt obligations, or

b) General Motor's ability to make good on its debt obligations?

Feh...I guess I should have bought those extortion-priced dinars! ;)

-z

[Bikewer]

On a slightly-related note, NPR's Science Friday featured an hour with an engineer who had just completed a year working on reconstruction projects in Iraq.
The picture he presented was rather bleak. In addition to the ongoing violence, it seems that the planning and execution of "reconstruction" is so bad as to be virtually useless. He spoke of billions spent for gas-turbine electrical generators. The thought was that with millions of cubic feet of natural gas, these generators would be quick to install and provide plenty of electricity. However, none of the natural gas available is in the purified, dehumidified, and pressurized form necessary for these expensive generators to run. There is no existing infrastructure to distribute the gas anyway. At present, generators sit idle across the street from wellheads that are simply burning off millions of cubic feet of natural gas.
If the money had been spent on much cheaper (but dirtier) multi-fuel generators, the situation would be considerably improved over the present production, which is lower than pre-invasion figures.

According to this engineer, the simplest repair project requires a 48-hour-in-advance submission, the detailing of a 3 armored-humvee convoy with at least 8 armed civilian "security contractors" (who may be pulling down 1000.00 per day), donning body armor, and then driving in convoy to the site of the repair. If it can't be done in one day, the procedure must be repeated.

It's also apparent that billions of dollars worth of aid and reconstruction money have simply vanished. With no effective government, corruption is endemic, and oversite non-existant.

And Afghanistan appears to be heating up.

[Skeptic]

If the money had been spent on much cheaper (but dirtier) multi-fuel generators, the situation wb than pre-invasion figures.

Of course, if that were done, the headlines would shout, "CYNICAL BUSH ADMINISTRATION LETS IRAQI ENVIORMENT GO TO ROT", or the equivalent, with a simila article arguing, "why can't they just install the more expensive and cleaner turbines?", with the usual conclusion that it is part of Bush's corporate fiend's attempt to maximize profits at the expense of the Iraqi people which they claim to have "freed" (insert sniggering sneer here)

According to this engineer, the simplest repair project requires a 48-hour-in-advance submission, the detailing of a 3 armored-humvee convoy with at least 8 armed civilian "security contractors" (who may be pulling down 1000.00 per day), donning body armor, and then driving in convoy to the site of the repair. If it can't be done in one day, the procedure must be repeated.

Of course, if such caution were not used and someone got killed by the terrorists, that would have been final proof that "the insurgency is winning" and that "the cynical Bush administration cares nothing for the life of civilians who are doing their best to reconstruct Iraq".

[Garrette]

the situation would be considerably improved over the present production, which is lower than pre-invasion figures.I'm interested in your sources for this.

I haven't looked it up lately, but when I was there (right after the fall of Saddam's regime and for a year after) and for a while after that, this was a commonly promoted bit of untruth.

It was/is true that the average number of hours per day with electricity was/is down, but NOT true that the output was down. It took only a couple of months for electrical production to exceed pre-invasion levels.

The two issues that resulted in a lowering of hours/day were these:

1. Demand skyrocketed immediately, particularly in the form of satellite dishes.

2. The electricity was no longer totally and forcibly brought from the Kurdish areas and the southern Shiite areas into Baghdad, Tikrit, and other Saddam favorites. Instead, these areas were allowed to keep, at least in part, what they produced and needed.

Because of these things, the perceived level of production was down, while it was, in fact, up.

Beyond that, something else may still be going on, though I don't know. I do know it was going on while I was there: Power generation facilities were being shut down by the Coalition for maintenance and overhaul. We were finding that many if not all the plants had simply been run and run and run without the periodic maintenance that is standard in the west, and that subsequently the facilities were on the verge of catastrophic failure.

[Freakshow]

Brutal propaganda videos distributed by Iraqi insurgents underscore the growing challenge that confronts US and Iraqi security forces

Why, yes, propaganda videos distributed by the terrorists (sorry, "insurgents", sorry, "freedom fighters") are just the place to look for objective information about Iraq.

You're a sucker for this sort of thing, aren't you, AUP?As much as he constantly stretches to find ANYTHING to complain about with the US, I'm surprised he's not a professional ballerina by now.

[a_unique_person]

There are Australian troops in Iraq. We are caught up in it too.

[Mycroft]

There are Australian troops in Iraq. We are caught up in it too.

Which proves what, that this isn't the mindless America bashing it seems like?


But wait, there's more. Measured by the premium demanded to comparable-maturity treasury bonds, does the market have more confidence in:

a) Iraq's ability to make good on its debt obligations, or

b) General Motor's ability to make good on its debt obligations?

Eh, it shows something bad for the USA either way.

[a_unique_person]

Absolute nonsense. A sniper takes one shot, and then gets the hell out of Dodge. Because after that 1st shot his position is made, and he'll soon be dead if he sticks around.

Did you RTFA?

[Hutch]

I'm interested in your sources for this.

For what it is worth, I found this link that appears to be a weekly status briefing from the Department of State (using data provided by DoD and other sources). While it does try to paint an optomistic picture (which is only natural and understandable) it also gives pretty straight dope--of course, depending on your level of trust of the USG.

Note--you will need to have Adobe Reader loaded to read this. Page 11 shows the chart for electricity. If somebody can figure how to download it here, be my guess and have at it.

http://www.export.gov/iraq/pdf/state_wklyrpt_020106.pdf

Edited to add--once there, you can adjust the dates for the weekly reports...020106 is Feb/01/2006 for reference.
I also noted that the reports for 18 Jan 06 and 25 Jan 06 reported the number of insurgent attacks (582 for week of 18 Jan 06. 386 for week of 25 Jan) but no totals were offered for the 1 Feb and 8 Feb reports. I leave others to draw what conclusions they may.

[zakur]

I'm interested in your sources for this.http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0210/p01s03-woiq.html

Thanks largely to deteriorating security, electricity - along with water, sewage, and oil production - has dropped below prewar levels. Before the invasion, for example, Baghdad was receiving an average of at least 16 hours of power a day. Today, with insurgents targeting power plants and electrical lines on an almost daily basis, the city gets power just four hours each day on average.

[...]

Iraq was generating 4,500 megawatts before the US invasion. But by November of last year that generation capacity had dropped to 3,995 megawatts, well below the national demand of 7,000 megawatts, according to a January report by the Office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction. Production has slumped despite the $3 billion - of $18.4 billion authorized for Iraq reconstruction - the US has set aside for electricity projects.

Stuart Bowen, the special inspector general for Iraq reconstruction, testified Wednesday before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Iraq would need much more than the $56 billion estimated by the World Bank and UN in 2003 to rebuild Iraq. He didn't give a new figure.

Mr. Bowen told the committee that Iraq's water supply, sewer system, and electrical grid were worse off than once thought.

[...]

US officials, though, point out that while power in Baghdad is slumping, supply has increased elsewhere in Iraq. "Now [electricity] is being distributed in a much more egalitarian manner," says Dawn Liberi, head of the Iraq office of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID).

Bowen seconded that claim at Wednesday's hearing. He said the power supply outside Baghdad was the one area of improvement since the war began.See also: http://enr.ecnext.com/coms2/summary_0271-24947_ITM

[Manny]

One sniper, for example, can tie down 150 troops backed by air support for a day, and then escape on a bicycle.It was at least two, "pinned down" is something of an exaggeration as operations were ongoing and the military was handicapped by the sensitivities of taking out mosques. And it was by no means typical. (cite (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/11/international/middleeast/11snipers.html?ex=1257915600&en=fa4794ca123b5f83&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland))

[WildCat]

Did you RTFA?
I can only infer that that your comment was about this sentence"
In the previous year, US marines stationed in Fallujah marvelled to The New York Times at the prowess of what some believed was a single sniper who kept 150 Americans pinned down for the best part of a day.
"what some believed", and taken from an article you probably haven't read? Did 2 soldiers out of the 150 believe that? What was the original context of the NYT story? I'd wager that you don't know, and yet you say...
One sniper, for example, can tie down 150 troops backed by air support for a day, and then escape on a bicycle.
as if it not only happened (which is unclear from your cite), but is also the norm. I'm calling BS.

[WildCat]

It was at least two, "pinned down" is something of an exaggeration as operations were ongoing and the military was handicapped by the sensitivities of taking out mosques. And it was by no means typical. (cite (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/11/international/middleeast/11snipers.html?ex=1257915600&en=fa4794ca123b5f83&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland))
Thanks for digging that up, it's pretty much as I expected.

[Bikewer]

In regards to the Science Friday segment, the thing can be streamed or podcast from:

http://www.sciencefriday.com/

[a_unique_person]

It was at least two, "pinned down" is something of an exaggeration as operations were ongoing and the military was handicapped by the sensitivities of taking out mosques. And it was by no means typical. (cite (http://www.nytimes.com/2004/11/11/international/middleeast/11snipers.html?ex=1257915600&en=fa4794ca123b5f83&ei=5090&partner=rssuserland))

They fired 30,000 rounds and called in air support.

[gtc]

Paul McGeough has form. He claims Allawi personally executes prisoners (http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/16/1089694568757.html). There is greater evidence of WMD in Iraq, but Paul has not backed down.

[a_unique_person]

He has 'form'. Is that supposed to be a joke I am missing?

[Skeptic]

Thanks for digging that up, it's pretty much as I expected.

So AUP and "The Age" took what is a). A totally atypical sniper incident that MIGHT HAVE happened ONCE during the past year, b). Propaganda videos by the terrorists praising snipers in the "we strike fear in the heart of the cowardly enemy" sort. Then, "The Age" and AUP concludes, in effect, that the propaganda videos are accurate and Iraqi snipers are decimating American forces just like the videos claim:

Officially, the cause of most of the 2260- plus American fatalities in Iraq is listed simply as "hostile fire". But there have been dozens of media reports of deaths and injuries by a single shot that go some way to confirming the sniper-inflicted US losses the insurgency attempts to glorify in its propaganda.

I like the weasel-words "go some way", when the article essentially agrees in its conclusions with the propaganda videos, only uses nicer language. (Yawn) somebody should tell these guys the truth about snipers in modern warfare--they are essentially worthless, their value being mostly for propaganda purposes--which "The Age" is a sucker for, obviously.

Pretty much par for the course for AUP and "The Age": take a totally atypical incident, make it look as if it is a common occurence, add the "reliable source" known as terrorist propaganda videos that make a lot of hay out of it, and--presto!--the insurgency is winning!

[a_unique_person]

Paul McGeough has form. He claims Allawi personally executes prisoners (http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/07/16/1089694568757.html). There is greater evidence of WMD in Iraq, but Paul has not backed down.
He is quoting two seperate sources.



An Australian television channel interviewed the reporter who is in Iraq telling him that the Allawi family had denied the story. He replied, “Well it’s a very contentious issue. What you have is two very solid eyewitness accounts. Each witness is not aware that the other spoke.”

The Australian journalist said, “Well, I’ll take you through what the two witnesses said to give you the full chronology as I understand it. There was a surprise visit at about 10:30am to the police centre. The PM talked to policemen and then toured the complex. They came to a courtyard where six, sorry seven prisoners were lined up against a wall. They were blindfolded, they were described to me as an Iraqi colloquialism for the fundamentalist foreign fighters who came to Baghdad. They have that classic look that you see with many of the Osama Bin Laden associates of the scraggly beard and the very short hair and they were a sort of ... took place in front of them as they were up against this wall was an exchange between the interior minister and Dr Allawi, saying that he felt like killing them on the spot.


http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_19-7-2004_pg1_2