Bird 'Flu Epidemiology

[Badly Shaved Monkey]

Aside from the question of whether the apostrophe in 'flu (and the one at the end has died already) can survive this epidemic, has anyone here looked into the epidemiology properly yet? I'm a vet and I should know, but I don't and I was wondering if anyone has any quick answers.

I am confused by these apparent facts.

1. H5N1 is highly contagious.
2. H5N1 is present in wildfowl reservoirs, some of which are asymptomatic
3. H5N1 has spread with migrating birds
4. H5N1 has killed birds in Europe having spread from the Far East where it first appeared about 8 years ago.

But, if 1, 2 and 3 are true it should be almost ubiquitous by now. If we're only picking up the occasional dead birds, where did they get it from? Either there really isn't much of it about, in which case 1 is false, or there's loads of it about already and we're only picking up the tiny tip of the iceberg.

All this leads to this thought, if H5N1 exists in wild reservoirs already, aren't we better off if it hurries through the bird population and burns itself out? If current policy cannot control it in the wild reservoirs then our attempts to stall its spread in wild reservoirs will simply give it a longer opportunity to mix with human-compatible 'flu viruses and potentially acquire mutations?

So, shouldn't we want it to hurry through the wild birds while at the same time closing off contact of domestic birds and people with those wild reservoirs?

I asked around our vets' meeting this morning and no one had clear answers including the vet whose partner is in the avian veterinary industry, so my ignorance may be worrying, but it is not unique.

[Soapy Sam]

I've been wondering too. An airborne (ie wing-borne) highly infectious virus in wildfowl is bound to infect free range chickens sooner or later. Is it not best to accept that and breed frominfected but immune birds?

[Rolfe]

Does it burn out? Guy on the radio this morning was saying that once we've got it in this country it's here for the long haul - either enzootic or sporadic. So management has to take years into account, not just measures which can be kept up for a couple of months.

(Actually he didn't say "enzootic", he said "endemic", which is driving me nuts. It didn't matter with FMD because that isn't transmissible to man anyway, so that was "department of we know what you mean". But since "endemic" means present in the human population, and "epidemic" means sweeping through the human population, and "pandemic" means felling the human population in great swathes, then it's not to my mind a good idea to use the terms when specifically referring to infeciton in the non-human population. I've already come across people very confused about news reports referring to an "epidemic" of bird flu. OK, the equivalent words for animal infections (enzootic, epzootic and panzootic) might not be well understood by the general public at the moment, but if they were used by the news media then they'd soon become understood, and discussion would be much clearer and more precise.)

Rolfe.

[brettDbass]

Does this help answer some of the questions?
{snip}

the virus .. appeared in wild birds at Qinghai Lake in north-west China last spring, and then spread across Siberia to the Black Sea coast and Turkey.

All outbreaks so far have been near wintering spots for ducks that spend the summer in Siberia, where there were multiple cases of the Qinghai strain last year.


According to http://www.newscientist.com/channel/health/mg18925392.900.html

[Badly Shaved Monkey]

Does it burn out? Guy on the radio this morning was saying that once we've got it in this country it's here for the long haul - either enzootic or sporadic. So management has to take years into account, not just measures which can be kept up for a couple of months.


But what is the "it"? Bird flu as a whole? H5N1?

I thought it was epizootic (point taken) in birds as well.

It may be a matter of how you defined these things. Seasonal flu is people is epidemic in the UK, but is it more like endemic in its breeding grounds in SE Asia?

Having started this thread, I've done some Googling and I'm not seeing good answers to these questions.

[Rolfe]

I thought it was epizootic (point taken) in birds as well.I thought that too. Until there was this virologist on the Today programme. I don't think he was specifically a veterinary virolologist, but I imagine he knew what he was talking about. I got the impression it was specifically H5N1 he was referring to.

Rolfe.

[Soapy Sam]

Something of a side issue, but I suspect most people are unaware of the term "epizootic" and the related terms Rolfe mentions. In this case- where public interest interects with medical / veterinary terminology, I feel we must accept some loss of precision and live with the fact that "epidemic in animals" is the term most people will inevitably use.
(I remember a futile attempt to use the word "Selenology" instead of the oxymoronic "Lunar Geology" years ago. It was a pointless attempt.)

Incidentally , "epidemic" can be both noun and adjective. I can see "epizootic" as adjective, but is it also used as a noun?

[Rolfe]

Yes.

(I still think it would be worth a try. "Lunar geology" may be silly, but again it's "department of we know what you mean". Unless they are really going to take care to say "epidemic in animals" every time, which they don't, there is real confusion here.)

Rolfe.

[Dymanic]

But, if 1, 2 and 3 are true it should be almost ubiquitous by now.
http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=39480

Confirmed - 36 countries

-- Austria (B) 2-14-06
-- Azerbaijan (B) 2-9-06
-- Belgium (B) 10-?-05
-- Bosnia/Herzegovina (B) 2-17-06
-- Bulgaria (B) 2-11-06
-- Cambodia (B) 1-24-04 (H) 2-?-05
-- China (B) ? (H) 2-4-03
-- Croatia (B) 10-26-05
-- Cyprus (B) 1-30-06
-- Egypt (B) 2-16-06
-- Ethiopia (B)
-- France (B) 2-18-06
-- Germany (B) 2-14-06
-- Greece (B) 2-11-06
-- Hungary (B) 2-15-06
-- India (B)
---- Maharashtra (B) 2-18-06
-- Indonesia (B) 2-2-04 (H) 7-?-05
-- Iran (B) 2-14-06
-- Iraq (B) (H) 1-2-06
-- Italy (B) 2-11-06
-- Japan (B) 1-?-04
-- Kazakhstan (B) 8-2-05
-- Kuwait (B) 11-11-05
-- Laos (B) 1-27-04
-- Libya (B) 10-9-05
-- Malaysia (B) 8-?-04
-- Mongolia (B) 8/12/05
-- Nigeria (B) 2-8-06
----- Sokoto (B)
----- Katsina (B)
----- Kano (B)
----- Yobe (B)
----- Kaduna (B)
----- Bauchi (B)
----- Plateau (B)
----- Nassarawa (B)
----- Abuja (B)
----- Kogi (B)
----- Lagos (B)
-- Reunion Island (H?)
-- Romania (B) 10-15-05
-- Russia (B) 7-23-05
-- Saudi Arabia (B)
-- Slovenia (B) 2-12-06
-- South Korea (B) 12-19-03
-- Taiwan (B) 10-?-05
-- Thailand (B) Tigers 1-23-04 (H) 9-?-04
-- Turkey (B) 10-13-05 (H) 1-1-06
-- UK (finches in quarantine) (B) 10-?-05
-- Ukraine (B) 12-5-05
-- VietNam (B) 1-8-04 (H) 12-?-04


Suspected - 17 countries

-- Albania (B)
-- Bulgaria (H) 2-18-06
-- Chad (B) from post, not news article
-- Greece (H) 2-15-06
-- India (H) 2-18-06
-- Macedonia (B) 2-15-06
-- Mauritania (B) 2-17-06
-- Morocco (B)
-- Netherlands (B) 2-16-06
-- Niger (B) 2-15-06
-- Poland (B) 2-15-06
-- Serbia & Montenegro (B) 2-16-06
-- Spain (B)
-- Sweden (B) 2-16-06
-- Taiwan (B?) if the UK finches were from Taiwan, then they should be listed
-- UK (B) 2-17-06 (swans)

[Dymanic]

I was wondering if anyone has any quick answers.

I'm not seeing good answers to these questions.Certainly there are plenty of quick answers. Good answers are a little harder to come by. There aren't any good, quick answers.



Is it not best to accept that and breed from infected but immune birds?Aquired immunity isn't passed on to offspring, unfortunately. As long as the virus is endemic (ok, ok, enzootic) in wild birds, preventing domestic poultry from contracting it will be difficult, at best. Don't count on it "burning out".

The WHO: (http://www.who.int/csr/2006_02_20/en/index.html)
"It is considered unusual for an avian influenza virus causing outbreaks in birds to remain this genetically stable over so many months. This finding raises the possibility that the virus -- in its highly pathogenic form -- has now adapted to at least some species of migratory waterfowl and is co-existing with these birds in evolutionary equilibrium, causing no apparent harm, and travelling with these birds along their migratory routes.

If further research verifies this hypothesis, re-introduction of the virus or spread to new geographical areas can be anticipated when migratory birds begin returning to their breeding areas.

The recent appearance of the virus in birds in a rapidly growing number of countries is of public health concern, as it expands opportunities for human exposures and infections to occur. These opportunities increase when the virus spreads from wild to domestic birds, especially when these birds are kept as backyard flocks in close proximity to humans"

[Badly Shaved Monkey]

http://www.curevents.com/vb/showthread.php?t=39480

Confirmed - 36 countries

-- Austria (B) 2-14-06
-- Azerbaijan (B) 2-9-06
-- Belgium (B) 10-?-05
-- Bosnia/Herzegovina (B) 2-17-06
-- Bulgaria (B) 2-11-06
-- Cambodia (B) 1-24-04 (H) 2-?-05
-- China (B) ? (H) 2-4-03
-- Croatia (B) 10-26-05
-- Cyprus (B) 1-30-06
-- Egypt (B) 2-16-06
-- Ethiopia (B)
-- France (B) 2-18-06
-- Germany (B) 2-14-06
-- Greece (B) 2-11-06
-- Hungary (B) 2-15-06
-- India (B)
---- Maharashtra (B) 2-18-06
-- Indonesia (B) 2-2-04 (H) 7-?-05
-- Iran (B) 2-14-06
-- Iraq (B) (H) 1-2-06
-- Italy (B) 2-11-06
-- Japan (B) 1-?-04
-- Kazakhstan (B) 8-2-05
-- Kuwait (B) 11-11-05
-- Laos (B) 1-27-04
-- Libya (B) 10-9-05
-- Malaysia (B) 8-?-04
-- Mongolia (B) 8/12/05
-- Nigeria (B) 2-8-06
----- Sokoto (B)
----- Katsina (B)
----- Kano (B)
----- Yobe (B)
----- Kaduna (B)
----- Bauchi (B)
----- Plateau (B)
----- Nassarawa (B)
----- Abuja (B)
----- Kogi (B)
----- Lagos (B)
-- Reunion Island (H?)
-- Romania (B) 10-15-05
-- Russia (B) 7-23-05
-- Saudi Arabia (B)
-- Slovenia (B) 2-12-06
-- South Korea (B) 12-19-03
-- Taiwan (B) 10-?-05
-- Thailand (B) Tigers 1-23-04 (H) 9-?-04
-- Turkey (B) 10-13-05 (H) 1-1-06
-- UK (finches in quarantine) (B) 10-?-05
-- Ukraine (B) 12-5-05
-- VietNam (B) 1-8-04 (H) 12-?-04


Suspected - 17 countries

-- Albania (B)
-- Bulgaria (H) 2-18-06
-- Chad (B) from post, not news article
-- Greece (H) 2-15-06
-- India (H) 2-18-06
-- Macedonia (B) 2-15-06
-- Mauritania (B) 2-17-06
-- Morocco (B)
-- Netherlands (B) 2-16-06
-- Niger (B) 2-15-06
-- Poland (B) 2-15-06
-- Serbia & Montenegro (B) 2-16-06
-- Spain (B)
-- Sweden (B) 2-16-06
-- Taiwan (B?) if the UK finches were from Taiwan, then they should be listed
-- UK (B) 2-17-06 (swans)

That's sort of what I was meaning. Lots of places, but apparently not very prevalent in any of them.

[Jorghnassen]

OK, the equivalent words for animal infections (enzootic, epzootic and panzootic) might not be well understood by the general public at the moment, but if they were used by the news media then they'd soon become understood, and discussion would be much clearer and more precise.


Oh I understand the difference perfectly. I just think epizootic (pan- and en-) really isn't a nice sounding word. It's just wrong. An inspired poet, supported by Pegasus, would have found a nice christian name for it. That or a cunning linguist.

/obscure, deeper and not so out of the blue as it appears
//still, somebody should've come up with something better

[Dymanic]

That's sort of what I was meaning. Lots of places, but apparently not very prevalent in any of them.
I favor the "tip of the iceberg" hypothesis. Since sampling of wild bird populations has been limited primarily to the counting of dead birds, "not apparent" doesn't automatically mean "not ubiquitous". The cautious approach would be to assume that the virus "has adapted to at least some species of migratory waterfowl and is co-existing with these birds in evolutionary equilibrium, causing no apparent harm, and travelling with these birds along their migratory routes". There are, undeniably, significant economic consequences for adopting such an approach -- but justified in my view, considering the stakes.

[Rolfe]

Oh I understand the difference perfectly. I just think epizootic (pan- and en-) really isn't a nice sounding word. It's just wrong. An inspired poet, supported by Pegasus, would have found a nice christian name for it. That or a cunning linguist.The one I really find impossible is "epizootiology". Fortunately, most of the time one can get away with simply writing it....

Rolfe.

[Mojo]

In Ben Goldacre's column (http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/badscience/story/0,,1712569,00.html) in this Saturday's Grauniad, he says that there isn't yet a vaccine for the current variety of bird flu. On the BBC news this morning (on the telly) there were repeated references to vaccinating domestic fowl. Is there a vaccine for this available for birds but not people, or have the BBC fallen into the same pitfall as the people mentioned in the column?

[rustytunes]

I keep my eye on a Homeopath egroup - noticed this posting today:

Dear Members,
My Name is A.SAMPATH KUMAR from India I am working in the field of
Homeopathic Medicines Manufacturing and Research & Development of new
combinations past 16 years in India.
I have recently formulated one ANTI-PYRETIC Oral Liquid and We have
tried this one under clinical trial among common flu patients (Human
beings)
We found that this Oral Liquid is working very good.
I wish to inform you that any interested Homeopath can cantact me in
this regard.
I will ready to give this combination to any bird flu infected person
in this world.
I need the assitance of interested homeopaths all over the world.
Thanks
A.SAMPATH KUMAR
INDIA

Looks like there is a bird flu vaccine!

[Capsid]

In Ben Goldacre's column (http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/badscience/story/0,,1712569,00.html) in this Saturday's Grauniad, he says that there isn't yet a vaccine for the current variety of bird flu. On the BBC news this morning (on the telly) there were repeated references to vaccinating domestic fowl. Is there a vaccine for this available for birds but not people, or have the BBC fallen into the same pitfall as the people mentioned in the column?
There is a potential candidate (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi?cmd=Retrieve&db=pubmed&dopt=Abstract&list_uids=15780743&query_hl=16&itool=pubmed_docsum) for humans. I don't see why this vaccine couldn't be used on domestic fowl, but the logistics of vaccinating millions of birds that have a rather short life is both daunting and perhaps not appropriate.

[Mojo]

Looks like there is a bird flu vaccine!
But from a homoeopath called Kumar...

[Badly Shaved Monkey]

In Ben Goldacre's column (http://www.guardian.co.uk/life/badscience/story/0,,1712569,00.html) in this Saturday's Grauniad, he says that there isn't yet a vaccine for the current variety of bird flu. On the BBC news this morning (on the telly) there were repeated references to vaccinating domestic fowl. Is there a vaccine for this available for birds but not people, or have the BBC fallen into the same pitfall as the people mentioned in the column?

Intervet have the bird vaccine. I don't know whether it should be readily usable in people (subject to licensing hurdles).

[kellyb]

I favor the "tip of the iceberg" hypothesis. Since sampling of wild bird populations has been limited primarily to the counting of dead birds, "not apparent" doesn't automatically mean "not ubiquitous". The cautious approach would be to assume that the virus "has adapted to at least some species of migratory waterfowl and is co-existing with these birds in evolutionary equilibrium, causing no apparent harm, and travelling with these birds along their migratory routes". There are, undeniably, significant economic consequences for adopting such an approach -- but justified in my view, considering the stakes.
That's pretty much what I think, too.

Here's an interesting article on the possibility of what it's doing in people.
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/10/news/flu.php

[sphenisc]

Aside from the question of whether the apostrophe in 'flu (and the one at the end has died already) can survive this epidemic, has anyone here looked into the epidemiology properly yet? I'm a vet and I should know, but I don't and I was wondering if anyone has any quick answers.

I am confused by these apparent facts.

1. H5N1 is highly contagious.
2. H5N1 is present in wildfowl reservoirs, some of which are asymptomatic
3. H5N1 has spread with migrating birds
4. H5N1 has killed birds in Europe having spread from the Far East where it first appeared about 8 years ago.

But, if 1, 2 and 3 are true it should be almost ubiquitous by now. If we're only picking up the occasional dead birds, where did they get it from? Either there really isn't much of it about, in which case 1 is false, or there's loads of it about already and we're only picking up the tiny tip of the iceberg.

All this leads to this thought, if H5N1 exists in wild reservoirs already, aren't we better off if it hurries through the bird population and burns itself out? If current policy cannot control it in the wild reservoirs then our attempts to stall its spread in wild reservoirs will simply give it a longer opportunity to mix with human-compatible 'flu viruses and potentially acquire mutations?

So, shouldn't we want it to hurry through the wild birds while at the same time closing off contact of domestic birds and people with those wild reservoirs?

I asked around our vets' meeting this morning and no one had clear answers including the vet whose partner is in the avian veterinary industry, so my ignorance may be worrying, but it is not unique.

You're not the only skeptic...

http://www.drmartinwilliams.com/component/option,com_simpleboard/Itemid,155/func,view/catid,7/id,512/#512

[TobiasTheViking]

I believe H5N1 first surfaced in the 60's, in the UK

[Abooga]

Hello. I got this on my mail recently about bird flu. I don´t know if you can all read spanish, but some of you may. I don´t have the time to translate now. It may be one of these BS chain-mail thingies, I don´t know, but the job of a skeptic is to be skeptic about everything, innit? So why not about this bird-flu phenomenon too...

Extracto de la Editorial del número 81(abril-2006) la revista DSALUD por
José Antonio Campoy

¿Sabes que el virus de la gripe aviar fue descubierto hace 9 años en
Vietnam?
¿Sabes que desde entonces han muerto apenas 100 personas EN TODO EL MUNDO
TODOS ESTOS AÑOS?
¿Sabes que los norteamericanos fueron los que alertaron de la eficacia del
TAMIFLU (antiviral humano) como preventivo?
¿Sabes que el TAMIFLU apenas alivia algunos síntomas de la gripe común?
¿Sabes que su eficacia ante la gripe común está cuestionada por gran parte
de la comunidad científica?
¿Sabes que ante un SUPUESTO virus mutante como el H5N1 el TAMIFLU apenas
aliviara la enfermedad?
¿Sabes que la gripe aviar hasta la fecha solo afecta a las aves?

¿Sabes quien comercializa el TAMIFLU? LABORATORIOS ROCHE
¿Sabes a quien compró ROCHE la patente del TAMIFLU en 1996? a GILEAD
SCIENCES INC.
¿Sabes quien era el Presidente de GILEAD SCIENCES INC y aun hoy principal
accionista? DONALD RUMSFELD, actual Secretario de Defensa de USA

¿Sabes que la base del TAMIFLU es el anís estrellado?
¿Sabes quien se ha quedado con el 90% de la producción mundial de este
árbol? ROCHE
¿Sabes que las ventas del TAMIFLU pasaron de 254 millones en el 2004 a mas
de 1000 millones en el 2005?
¿Sabes cuantos millones más puede ganar ROCHE en los próximos meses si
sigue este negocio del miedo?

O sea que el resumen del cuento es el siguiente: Los amigos de Bush deciden
que un fármaco como el TAMIFLU es la solución para una pandemia que aún no
se ha producido y que ha causado en todo el mundo 100 muertos en 9 años.

Este fármaco no cura ni la gripe común. El virus no afecta al hombre en
condiciones normales. Rumsfeld vende la patente del TAMIFLU a ROCHE y este
le paga una fortuna. Roche adquiere el 90% de la producción del anís
estrellado, base del antivírico. Los Gobiernos de todo el Mundo amenazan
con una pandemia y compran a ROCHE cantidades industriales del producto.

Nosotros acabamos pagando el medicamento y Rumsfeld, Cheney y Bush hacen el
negocio....

¿ESTAMOS LOCOS, O SOMOS IDIOTAS? AL MENOS PASALO PARA QUE SE SEPA

[sphenisc]

Have no Spanish - I Babelfished this, and got...

Extract of the Publishing house of the number 81(abril-2006) magazine DSALUD by Jose Antonio Campoy You know that the virus of the bird influenza was discovered 9 years ago in Vietnam? You know that since then THESE YEARS have died hardly 100 people ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD ALL? You know that the North Americans were those that alerted of the effectiveness of the TAMIFLU (antiviral human) like preventive? You know that the TAMIFLU as soon as he alleviates some symptoms of the common influenza? You know that its effectiveness before the common influenza is questioned by great part of the scientific community? You know that before a SUPPOSED mutant virus as the H5N1 the TAMIFLU as soon as it alleviated the disease? You know that to date single the bird influenza affects the birds? You know who commercializes the TAMIFLU? LABORATORIES ROCHE Sabes to that ROCHE bought the patent of the TAMIFLU in 1996? to INC. GILEAD SCIENCES. You know who was the President of INC. GILEAD SCIENCES and even today main shareholder? DONALD RUMSFELD, present Secretary of Defense of the USA You know that the base of the TAMIFLU is the starred anise? You know who has remained with 90% of the world-wide production of this tree? ROCHE Sabes that the sales of the TAMIFLU happened of 254 million in the 2004 to but of 1000 million in the 2005? You know whichever million more can gain ROCHE in the next months if it follows east business of the fear? That is that the summary of the story is the following one: The friends of Bush decide that a drug like the TAMIFLU is the solution for a pandemic that not yet has taken place and that has caused anywhere in the world 100 died in 9 years. This drug does not cure nor the common influenza. The virus does not affect to the man in normal conditions. Rumsfeld sells the patent of the TAMIFLU to ROCHE and this a fortune pays to him. Roche acquires 90% of the production of the starred anise, bases of the antiviral one. The Governments worldwide threaten a pandemic and buy to ROCHE industrial amounts of the product. We ended up paying the medicine and Rumsfeld, Cheney and Bush make the business.... WE ARE CRAZY, Or WE ARE STUPID? AT LEAST PASALO SO THAT IT IS KNOWN

In summary, the reason not to be concerned about avian flu is not primarily because because of scientific research/epidemiological modelling, but because some famous people may get even richer if you do. :rolleyes:

[Abooga]

I think what it´s saying is that it may all be a big hoax to get people scared and make a lot of money, like that famous millenium bug thing. It´s a possibility, don´t you think? Ok, maybe not a hoax, the bug is there, and it´s causing some deaths. But perhaps we are being manipulated, diverting our attention towards something not that important while some are making lots of money in the process. BTW, are those claims about Rumsfeld and TAMIFLU true?

[Yllanes]

I can translate the Spanish message. (Disclaimer: this is a translation, not an endorsement, don't kill the messenger...)


Do you know that the bird flu virus was discovered 9 years ago in Vietnam?

Do you know that, since that moment, hardly 100 people have died IN THE WHOLE WORLD ALL THESE YEARS?

Do you know it was the Americans who warned of the eficacy of TAMIFLU (human antiviral) as a preventative?

Do you know that TAMIFLU hardly alleviates some symptons of the common flu?

Do you know that its eficacy against common flu is questioned by great part of the scientific community?

Do you know that against a SUPPOSED mutant virus such as H5N! TAMIFLU will hardly alleviate the illness?

Do you know that bird flu, to date, only affects birds?

Do you know who commercialises TAMIFLU? ROCHE LABORATORIES

Do you know who bought the TAMIFLU patent in 1996? GILEAD SCIENCES INC.

Do you know who was the President, and still is the main share holder, of GILEAD SCIENCES? DONALD RUMSFELD, current Secretary of Defence of the USA

Do you know that the basis of TAMIFLU is the starred anise?

Do you know who has 90% of the world's production of that tree? ROCHE

Do you know that TAMIFLU sales went from 254M in 2004 to 1000M+ in 2005?

Do you knwo how many millions ROCHE can earn in the following months if this fear business persists?

In short: Bush's friends decide that a medicine such as TAMIFLU is the solution for a pandemic which hasn't taken place and which has caused in the whole world 100 deaths in 9 years.

This medicine doesn't even cure common flu. The virus does not affect humans in normal conditions. Rumsfeld sells the patent to ROCHE and the latter pays him a fortune. Roche acquires 90% of the production of the starred anise, basis of the antiviral. Governments all over the world threaten with a pandemic and buy from ROCHe huge quantities of the product.

We will end up paying for it while Rumsfeld, Cheney and Bush get loaded...

ARE WE MAD OR STUPID? AT LEAST PASS IT ON SO IT GETS KNOWN.

[Yllanes]

Hmmm... that message seems to have been taken from

doble u's dsalud dott com slash editoriales_81.htm.htm

(I can't post proper urls)

Among other things, this magazine has sections on alternative medicine (we all know what that means), magical magnets, iridology, phosphenism, killer cellular phones, chromotherapy...

[Abooga]

Ok Yllanes, seems like the source is full of sh*t. I don´t know which option is better, either Rumsfeld is a big liying bstrd of we have a dangerous epidemic lurking somewhere. Perhaps both?:confused:

[Rolfe]

Actually, perhaps both.

I wouldn't be all that surprised if there were people (and politicians seem like likely candidates) all ready and willing to make a few million from a global disaster.

But that neither means that the threat of disaster isn't real, or that the drug is being overhyped. It's been made pretty clear that nobody is certain that it will work, but there is reason to believe it will, and it makes sense to be prepared. The fact that it might be Rumsfeldt who cashes in on this I find barely surprising. But I'd still want the drug to be stockpiled.

Rolfe.

[Abooga]

Well, why would´t they overhype the drug if they´re the ones making money of it?

[Abooga]

Is it true it comes from aniseed? and that it doesn´t really have an effect of flu?

[casebro]

At what level do government officials have to put their investments into blind trusts? I know the pres and the VP do... don't Secretaries also?

[Dymanic]

Is it true it comes from aniseed? and that it doesn´t really have an effect of flu?
Chinese star anise is the primary source of shikimic acid, the main ingredient used to manufacture Oseltamivir, sold as Tamiflu. The effectiveness of the drug against a pandemic influenza remains to be seen. Resistance to both classes of antiviral drugs (the neuraminidase inhibitors like Tamiflu and the M-2 inhibitors like Amantadine) has been found to develop quickly, but it also appears to degrade rather quickly. A lot might depend on how the drugs were administered. To be effective, treatment must be started early in the course of the illness. Once viral load passes a certain point, the drug no longer makes much difference -- and the opportunities for resistance to develop increase considerably as well. Since there isn't enough to go around anyway, I think we might get better results if the emphasis was more on phrophylaxis rather than actual treatment (i.e., giving highest priority to caregivers, first responders, truck drivers, and other critical workers).

[SteveGrenard]

This is the 1sttime highly pathogenic avian influenza has been detected in Denmark.

The virus isolate was submitted to the EU reference laboratory in the UK on Thu 16 Mar 2006 for confirmation.


Further analysis of the genome will be performed.


From an e-mail sent by:

Poul H. Jorgensen (DFVF)
Anders Fomsgaard




On Tue 14 Mar 2006, an H5 avian influenza virus was detected in respiratory tissues from a dead buzzard Buteo buteo found in the southern part of the island of Zealand(Sjaelland) in Denmark. The identification of the virus is:

A/Buzzard/Denmark/6370/06 (H5N1).

Sequencing of the cleavage site of the HA gene revealed that the virus is highly pathogenic for fowl.

On Wed 15 Mar 2006, a virus isolate was obtained from SPF [specific pathogen free] chicken embryos. The entire viral genome has been sequenced now in a collaborative work between the Danish Institute for Food and Veterinary Research (DFVF) and Statens Seruminstitut (SSI).

The sequence has been made accessible at the home page of the Danish Influenza Research Network, formed by DFVF and SSI:

http://home.no.net/difn (http://home.no.net/difn)

[SteveGrenard]

At what level do government officials have to put their investments into blind trusts? I know the pres and the VP do... don't Secretaries also?

That's an excellent question. If you are an employee of the
government and many private firms you are not allowed to
own a company or a part of any company (e.g. stock) whose products you may have influence over in recommending their purchase. It's called a conflict of interest. That's for ordinary people. When the SOD got his present job, he kept his huge stock portfolio in Gilsead, developer of Tamiflu, and he has already benefitted from the government's purchase and planned future purchase of Tamiflu. The stock has rose from around $34 to over $60 per share in one year. I call that doubling your money ... and its a lot of shares the SOD has. I do not understand how either he or the VP could continue to retain financial ties to commercial entities after they got their current government jobs and not be in a conflict of interest. I would not be allowed to do it. If I got a job where I would be buying a company's products whose stock I own, I would be required to dump the stock before I did that. That includes friends and relatives as well. Otherwise I and they could end up like Martha Stewart. Cheney and Rumsfeld, along with John Snow and David Sanborn (who would've benefitted from the Dubai ports deal) make Martha Stewart's actions look like chicken feed ....

So Cheny and Rumsfeld's(?) stock are placed in a blind trust that they cannot buy and sell on the basis of inside information (but their trustee can) and they know what they have and based on the prospects for Gilsead and Halliburton it is not likely they would sell anyway.

[SteveGrenard]

Well, why would´t they overhype the drug if they´re the ones making money of it?

Because if ordinary mortals like you and me were making money over a product we were buying with taxpayer dollars we'd be indicted, convicted and then fined and jailed.

If they want those jobs, e.g. VP or SOD, then they should
lose their financial ties to any entity that would benefit from
taxpayer business.

[Dogdoctor]

Apparently some people and birds may be somewhat resistant to it which may hide it's spread and slow it's spread a bit.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,14207,1682954,00.html
Here is an article that suggests that bird flu may have traded it's pathogenicity for ease of transmission
http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=47720
Anyway those are some ideas floating around.

[Dymanic]

Apparently some people and birds may be somewhat resistant to it which may hide it's spread and slow it's spread a bit.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/birdflu/story/0,14207,1682954,00.html"The researchers studied interviews with 45,478 people in FilaBavi, a Vietnamese demographic surveillance site with confirmed outbreaks of H5N1 in poulty during April to June 2004. Eighty-four per cent lived in households that kept poultry and 25.9% reported birds falling ill or dying of flu in that time. Of those, between 650 and 750 people suffered flu-like symptoms after handling the birds."

Let me get this straight. They went around and interviewed people -- during flu season -- and based on the frequency with which flu-like syptoms were reported, concluded that H5N1 is widespread? It's a joke, right?


Here is an article that suggests that bird flu may have traded it's pathogenicity for ease of transmission:
http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=47720Catch the date on that one?

[Rolfe]

Well, why would´t they overhype the drug if they´re the ones making money of it?You have to realise that it's not just, or even mainly, the manufacturers who are "hyping" the drug. Many virologists with no connection to the manufacturer have been quite positive about the potential.

Rolfe.

[SteveGrenard]

This may explain why there are so few human cases thus far:



http://www.medpagetoday.com/InfectiousDisease/URItheFlu/tb2/2911


MADISON, Wis., March 22 - People anxiously watching the skies for the
arrival of sick migratory birds can relax, just a bit, if research here pans
out on where avian flu resides in the human airway.

The research reported in the March 23 issue of Nature shows that the humanairway isn't particularly hospitable to the bird flu virus.
Unlike most human influenza strains, which can infect cells high in the
airway, the avian flu prefers cells that are mainly found deep in the lungs,
according to Yoshihiro Kawaoka, D.V.M., Ph.D., of the University of
Wisconsin at Madison.

The finding may explain why human-to-human transmission of the virus so far has been rare, said Dr. Kawaoka and colleagues.
In an interview, Dr. Kawaoka said the finding also explains why most of the human cases of infection with the highly pathogenic avian flu H5N1 have been among people living or working in close contact with infected birds.

To get the virus deep into the lungs, where it can infect its preferred
cells, requires extensive exposure, Dr Kawaoka said. That's unlike the
typical human influenza virus, which infects cells found high in the airway
and can be easily spread by coughing and sneezing.
"Deep in the respiratory system, receptors for avian viruses, including
avian hemagglutinin type 5 (H5) neuraminidase type 1 (N1) viruses, are
present," he said. "But these receptors are rare in the upper portion of the
respiratory system."

"For the viruses to be transmitted efficiently, they have to multiply in the
upper portion of the respiratory system so that they can be transmitted bycoughing and sneezing."

On the other hand, Dr. Kawaoka said, only "a couple of mutations" would be required for the virus to change its preference. He added that surveillance for such changes is relatively easy.

"Identification of H5N1 viruses with the ability to recognize human
receptors would bring us one step closer to a pandemic strain," he said.

(truncated ...more at above URL)

[SteveGrenard]

http://in.rediff.com/news/2006/mar/28flu.htm


Horse antibodies could habour bird flu cure

March 28, 2006 17:41 IST

This research may offer some consolation at a time when the bird flu virus and its mutations pose a great threat to humans as well as poultry.

Antibodies against the bird flu virus H5N1, derived from horses, prevent mice infected with the virus from dying.

A study published Tuesday in the open access journal Respiratory Researchreveals that a certain dose of horse anti-serum effectively protects infected mice.

These results suggest that anti-H5N1 antibodies developed in horses could potentially be used to prevent death from H5N1 influenza, or as early treatment for the disease, in humans.

Jiahai Lu from Sun Yat-Sen University in Guangzhou, China, and colleagues from other institutions in China infected dog kidney cells in vitro with a lethal dose of H5N1 and simultaneously exposed the cells to horse antibodies
against H5N1.

Lu's results show that horse antibodies to H5N1 protected cells against H5N1 in vitro -- the cells simultaneously infected with H5N1 and exposed to horse antibodies did not die.


If this pans out quickly this would be very good news for people worried about the bird flu becoming a human pandemic. Horses are large, robust producers of antibodies that have been used in the past to make antiserum (Tetanus and Snakebite Antiserum). In many countries horses are kept for anti-serum production. In the U.S. anti-snakebite serum from horses has been mostly replaced by anti-serum from sheep which also may be candidates for producing antibodies to H5N1. Highly purified sheep anti-serum is used due to the high number of people allergic to horse serum which contains irrelevant horse antigens. Purification should be able to remove these.

References:

http://www.protherics.com/products/Critical_Care_Products.asp

http://www.snakebitenews.com (http://www.snakebitenews.com)

[Bikewer]

NPR's Science Friday had a segment on the avian flu last week. The researcher interviewed said that the virus finds it's preferred receptor sites on tissues that lie very "deep" in the lung, rather than the nasal passages that we see as the infection point with common flu/cold virus.
This explains why the virus is rather hard to catch at present, and is only seen in persons who have exposure to heavy concentrations. Also, it makes it very difficult to treat.

It also means that any mutation of the virus to make it more transmissible might as well make it more treatable.

[SteveGrenard]

NPR's Science Friday had a segment on the avian flu last week. The researcher interviewed said that the virus finds it's preferred receptor sites on tissues that lie very "deep" in the lung, rather than the nasal passages that we see as the infection point with common flu/cold virus.
This explains why the virus is rather hard to catch at present, and is only seen in persons who have exposure to heavy concentrations. Also, it makes it very difficult to treat.

It also means that any mutation of the virus to make it more transmissible might as well make it more treatable.

For info on the above....

http://www.medpagetoday.com/InfectiousDisease/PublicHealth/tb2/2911

[SteveGrenard]

Here is the link of the original publication on the use of highly purified horse serum antibodies for HN5N1:

http://respiratory-research.com/content/7/1/43