Should I get rid of my US$ ? (the whole 75 of them)

[Flo]

Someone sent me to this site (http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm)
Where it is predicted that:

This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran

I've heard most of the arguments before, but I wonder about this:

An Alarm based on 2 verifiable events
The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis, i.e. the United States and Iran:

--> on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ;

--> on the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006 onward [1].

These two decisions constitute altogether the indicators, the causes and the consequences of the historical transition in progress between the order created after World War II and the new international equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the USSR. Their magnitude as much as their simultaneity will catalyse all the tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a decade throughout the international system.

and this:

A world crisis declined in 7 sector-based crises
LEAP/E2020's researchers and analysts thus identified 7 convergent crises that the American and Iranian decisions coming into effect during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a total crisis, affecting the whole planet in the political, economic and financial fields, as well as in the military field most probably too:

1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar
2. Crisis of US financial imbalances
3. Oil crisis
4. Crisis of the American leadership
5. Crisis of the Arabo-Muslim world
6. Global governance crisis
7. European governance crisis


And the cognoscenti's opinion is ?

[Dcdrac]

Stay calm

[bob_kark]

Have you met our President? Just to let you know, the last time I heard him use the word "economy" was in 2004. He ducked out of habit upon mentioning it. Sell!! Sell!! Sell!!

[Flo]

Have you met our President? Just to let you know, the last time I heard him use the word "economy" was in 2004. He ducked out of habit upon mentioning it. Sell!! Sell!! Sell!!


What ? The whole $75 I brought back from my vacations ? Oh dear, I'm scared, really scared ...

[Jorghnassen]

I still have about 400 FF stashed somewhere. Now the question is, are they worth more or less than the $75 US you have?

[Grammatron]

They forgat to add that Jesus will return for the judgement day.

[rwguinn]

What ? The whole $75 I brought back from my vacations ? Oh dear, I'm scared, really scared ...

Send it to me, and I will see that it is properly disposed of....:D

[CFLarsen]

Donate them to JREF.

[bob_kark]

Oh dear, I'm scared, really scared ...

Yes, that's how I feel everytime I remember who's behind the steering wheel.

[geni]

Too many people have too much tied up in the continueing reasonable strength of the dollar for it to fall rapidy.

[Zbu]

Not to sound greedy, but if you don't want them, I'd love $20 so I could up my membership at the ACLU. The rest? Donate. :)

[Abdul Alhazred]

No. Send it to me.

There's a curse on your dollars and only I know how to remove it for you. :p

[FreeChile]

Although, I do think that the Iran issue could significantly impact the US economy, the link provided neglected to report the following fact on the M3 highlight.

M3 does not appear to convey any additional information about economic activity that is not already embodied in M2 and has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years. Consequently, the Board judged that the costs of collecting the underlying data and publishing M3 outweigh the benefits.

[Zbu]

No. Send it to me.

There's a curse on your dollars and only I know how to remove it for you. :p

And you just won a lottery you never knew you entered in Nigeria! But sadly, the king who funded it is now dead and we require you to hand over your account number in order to.... :p

[a_unique_person]

Well, I just heard on the radio that the US is to open up diplomatic relations (in a small way) with Iraq for the first time since the hostage crises. So maybe it will be resolved peacefully after all.

[Mike B.]

Well, I just heard on the radio that the US is to open up diplomatic relations (in a small way) with Iraq for the first time since the hostage crises. So maybe it will be resolved peacefully after all.

I think you meant Iran, right?

[a_unique_person]

I think you meant Iran, right? Are you right, or are you right. You are right.

[FreeChile]

--> on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ;
Just to comment a little bit more on this. This would not really be "the first oil bourse priced in Euros." Iraq had also done this when Sadam was in charge.

Does anyone know what the consequences of that policy was on the US dollar? Is there any analysis out there on that?

Also, now that the US is in charge, does anyone know if the Euro has been maintained or has the US forced the Iraqis to switch back to the dollar?

[RandFan]

What difference does it make? We are all going to die.

[FreeChile]

I know. But I just wanna make some money before I go.

[FreeChile]

Just to comment a little bit more on this. This would not really be "the first oil bourse priced in Euros." Iraq had also done this when Sadam was in charge.

Does anyone know what the consequences of that policy was on the US dollar? Is there any analysis out there on that?

Also, now that the US is in charge, does anyone know if the Euro has been maintained or has the US forced the Iraqis to switch back to the dollar?
I guess this article answers my own questions. I don't know if any of the information on it is accurate.

How can the dollar collapse in Iran? An explanation
http://www.moneyfiles.org/deruiter01.html

[Rob Lister]

I guess this article answers my own questions. I don't know if any of the information on it is accurate.

How can the dollar collapse in Iran? An explanation
http://www.moneyfiles.org/deruiter01.html

Oh, that was a great website. It was so great I'll post a 'fair use' snippit of it just so our local skeptics can have some fun

From FreeChile's site:

Reasons:
a. The volume and price of the traded oil generally increases. More dollars are needed over time.
b. Thanks to the free trade, many dollars stay in use in international trade outside the US.
c. Many foreign central banks keep dollars as strategic reserves.
d. The US Treasury issues bonds, which, when sold to foreigners, reduces the amount of dollars available abroad.
So, during decades, foreigners always needed more dollars. The US treasury issued extra dollars. And here it becomes very interesting. There is only one way to make these dollars available abroad. Spend them around the world! The US would purchase goods, services, shares, investments etc. But the US never had to deliver anything in return. The foreigners needed these dollars to buy oil. The purchases were just inscribed on the trade balances and the amounts added to the US' foreign debt. For the US, the oil trade works like a fairy credit card. Each time more dollars are needed abroad, this means "free" shopping. Nothing can be done about it.

[CapelDodger]

Stay calmAnd buy diamonds.

[CapelDodger]

What difference does it make? We are all going to die.Speak for yourself.

If I do, I hope to do it in serious debt to people I don't care about. But the plan is not to do it at all. So far so good.

[CapelDodger]

I know. But I just wanna make some money before I go.My "wanna" has always been about the spending, the making is just a requirement. Borrowing to spend is unnattractive, only to be engaged in when the end's definitely nigh. Earn it, then spend it. Credit is a mug's game.

[CapelDodger]

The last week in March 2006 is so much more interesting than 2012 or the hazy "OK, we're screwed" time of global warming. Just two weeks to commit yourself, folks, if that's your bent. Then we open the envelope.

I'm not going to dismiss the idea entirely. There, I've said it.

[geni]

And buy diamonds.

Only if you think De beers can keep control of that market. Otherwise swiss franks are normaly pretty safe.

[CapelDodger]

I guess this article answers my own questions. I don't know if any of the information on it is accurate.
A lot of it is on the nose. There's a polemical flavour here and there - "free shopping", f'rinstance - but the point about the dollar-delimited oil trade is valid. As dollars flow from the US a proportion ends up in the oil-cycle, much of which has nothing to do with the US. Other dollars are taken into state reserves for strategic reasons - dollar assets are as good as a physical oil reserve, and provide income instead of incurring costs.

In sum, the US is writing cheques and some people aren't cashing them. Yet. If the dollar ceases to be the only large-scale oil-currency those cheques will start to be cashed in.

Will China adjust its currency portfolio when Iran deals in Euros? China gets a lot of oil from Iran. China has a lot in dollars, not so much in Euros. Strategically, selling some dollars for Euros would seem prudent. And a Chinese "some" is everybody else's "lots of".

[CapelDodger]

Only if you think De beers can keep control of that market. Otherwise swiss franks are normaly pretty safe.
Krugerrands are still good, bought at the right time. De Beers nothing, diamonds have always been the value-store of last resort. Gold is too heavy, stamps - how long can that go on?, Swiss Francs are a long way away and subject to the "Sorry? What? You say you're who now?" effect. When the crap hits the fan you need to stones to get you through it.

I'm deeply suspicious of the Swiss. Rising above the fray, they take deposits from both sides of any conflict and keep one. Who's pulling the strings here?

[geni]

Krugerrands are still good, bought at the right time. De Beers nothing, diamonds have always been the value-store of last resort. Gold is too heavy, stamps - how long can that go on?,

Unless De Beers decide to release their reserves or stop their marketing. Either would result in a massive dent in diamon value.

[strathmeyer]

And buy diamonds.

Are you serious? Diamonds are a scam. Just because you can buy them for lots of money, doesn't mean that they're worth a lot of money. (Exact semantics: worth = how much you can sell them for.)

If I were going to recommend anything, it would be gold or silver. But seriously, if the we're at a point where the US dollar collapses, perhaps you'll be trading in that gold and silver for guns and food, so by that logic if you're giving up on the US dollar you should stock up on guns and food.

And porn and profolactics.

[CapelDodger]

Unless De Beers decide to release their reserves or stop their marketing. Either would result in a massive dent in diamon value.There's a lot of ocean out there, and not a massive volume of diamonds. Matters will stabilise, and funnily enough great hoards of diamonds will prove to have been illusory. :cool:

[strathmeyer]

There's a lot of ocean out there, and not a massive volume of diamonds. Matters will stabilise, and funnily enough great hoards of diamonds will prove to have been illusory. :cool:

What exactly are you claiming here? That deBeers doesn't control the diamond price? I don't want to put words into your mouth, but I just can't tell what your trying to say. This is a big issue for me, because I think that deBeers is the most evil country in the world, because they actually cause killing in a way unseen in other industries.

[luchog]

There's a lot of ocean out there, and not a massive volume of diamonds. Matters will stabilise, and funnily enough great hoards of diamonds will prove to have been illusory. :cool:
Actually, there are. There was a huge hoard discovered in Russia a few years back, I have a friend who was there at the time. There was a major brouha about how this was finally going to break the back of the DeBeers monopoly and reduce diamond prices to market levels; at least for the mid-sized stones, which were beginning to flood out of the mines. Then DeBeers spent an exhorbitant sum to buy the mines, and the flood immediately turned into a trickle. There were also some problems finding highly-skilled cutters for the stones, since no one in Amsterdam would touch them, for fear of being cut-off by DeBeers (anyone in the industry who does business outside the DeBeers network is immediately and permanently blacklisted); and they were having a lot difficulty finding Indian or Thai cutters who could achieve the requisite quality.

I've seen estimates that, if not for the DeBeers monopoly and their near-complete control over all major diamond source and distribution, the market value would drop by up to half, or even more for under-one-carat stones.

They have worked hand in glove with some of the most repressive governments, promoted apartheid in South Africa, and engaged in some of the most violent repressions of workers that have ever happened in order to maintain their monopoly.

For all the complaining that goes on about the politics of various US corporations, the only corp that I would consider truly evil is DeBeers.

[FreeChile]

A lot of it is on the nose. There's a polemical flavour here and there - "free shopping", f'rinstance - but the point about the dollar-delimited oil trade is valid. As dollars flow from the US a proportion ends up in the oil-cycle, much of which has nothing to do with the US. Other dollars are taken into state reserves for strategic reasons - dollar assets are as good as a physical oil reserve, and provide income instead of incurring costs.

In sum, the US is writing cheques and some people aren't cashing them. Yet. If the dollar ceases to be the only large-scale oil-currency those cheques will start to be cashed in.

Will China adjust its currency portfolio when Iran deals in Euros? China gets a lot of oil from Iran. China has a lot in dollars, not so much in Euros. Strategically, selling some dollars for Euros would seem prudent. And a Chinese "some" is everybody else's "lots of".

from FreeChile link:

c. Many foreign central banks keep dollars as strategic reserves.
I may be wrong and there may be some other logic to this. But that is one part of the report I find most unlikely. That is because any sensible financial institution would keep the money invested and moving to stimulate growth.

Another series problem I had with the report is that I found a related site associated with it (can't remember the name) that was trying to get me to get another complicated report that would advise me on stocks to invest in to make money off the emminent calamity.

[FreeChile]

Will China adjust its currency portfolio when Iran deals in Euros? China gets a lot of oil from Iran. China has a lot in dollars, not so much in Euros. Strategically, selling some dollars for Euros would seem prudent. And a Chinese "some" is everybody else's "lots of".
The US will try to prevent anyone from switching to that market. I guess that gives us an idea of how serious the whole thing is.

Iran Sanctions Bill Wins Approval From House International Relations Panel
Congressional Quarterly
Thursday, March 16, 2006
By Eleanor Stables

A House committee approved an amended version of a bill Wednesday that would impose sanctions on foreign companies and countries that do business with Iran's oil industry while the country is suspected of seeking nuclear weapons.

The International Relations Committee's vote on the Iran sanctions bill (HR 282) was 37-3, with Republicans Jim Leach of Iowa and Ron Paul of Texas and Democrat Earl Blumenauer of Oregon voting no.

...

[FreeChile]

Here's the Iran Freedom Support Act in case anyone is interested.

http://wwwc.house.gov/international_relations/109/ROSLEH_024_XML.PDF

[Gurdur]

.... because I think that deBeers is the most evil country in the world, because they actually cause killing in a way unseen in other industries.

While De Beers is definitely questionable, despite their lockhold on the Skeleton Coast they're not really a country....

[The Painter]

WOW, you searched back a year and a half just to make that comment? How bored are you?

[Tildy]

Necromancing. Or cybercrushing.

[Gurdur]

WOW, you searched back
Nope. The subject came up linked.
How bored are you?
Bored enough to answer you.

[Damien Evans]

Nope. The subject came up linked.

Bored enough to answer you.

But are you bored enough to answer me?