Premonition of a plane crash

[aggle-rithm]

Tomorrow, I'm going on my first plane flight since 9/11 scared everyone out of the skies. Knowing that an airliner's design is so robust that it is very unlikely to malfunction doesn't help my nervousness about speeding at superhuman speeds miles above the ground.

To make matters worse, I find references to plane crashes wherever I look. There have been TWO "Seconds from Distaster" episodes in the last week describing airliner crashes. During one, my wife helpfully provided the information that the type of plane with a defect that causes it to unexpectedly spiral into the ground, killing everyone on board, is the very one that we're going to be flying on.

I thought, "well, thank God they've identified the problem and fixed it by now!" But no. The defective part will take over a decade to replace on all airliners. In the meantime, pilots are trained to work around the defect. Not all that comforting.

I also saw an old Twilight Zone episode yesterday featuring a plane crash. Also, the book I'm currently reading, "Stiff" by Mary Roach, has a chapter describing how the bodies of plane crash victims are used to determine what happened on the plane.

I think this is a good example of "When you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail." Most of the time, I wouldn't notice this sort of thing, but the fact that I'm nervous about a flight brings it to the forefront. Calculating the odds would be meaningless. If you look at what percentage of "Seconds from Disaster" or "Twilight Zone" episodes were about plane crashes (or gremlins tampering with planes, or planes getting lost in time) then it's hardly surprising that I would catch plane-crash episodes on either one of these shows. It's also very likely that, in a book about human cadavers, there would be a chapter on plane crash victims.

And if I'm going to calculate odds, what are the odds of a plane actually crashing right after one of the passengers had a premonition of a plane crash? Well...probably the same as the odds that the plane would crash at all. Very low.

[Arkan_Wolfshade]

On the upside, if you do decide it's a premonition post it here, if you turn out right you'll be eligible. ;)

Sillyness aside, I get jittery every time I step on to an airplane. Statistics are just not as comforting as you would hope when you know if something happens it is out of your control. After the flight, spend another week looking for the same signs as you are seeing now, I bet there will be just as many post-flight as pre-flight.

Have a good trip.

[Kochanski]

Aggle, you are definitely not helping yourself with all those things. Sometimes, it is a good thing just ignore all of the noise around you and focus on the purpose of your trip. Are you going someplace nice? Visiting relatives? Anything you can look forward to at all?

I have never been nervous flying, guess I am lucky that way. All I can say is find something else to think about and try to enjoy your trip.

[Humphreys]

Gah. I've been there, and I know exactly how you feel.

It always makes me feel better to recite something someone once told me whenever get on board "Statistically speaking, you'd need to fly all day every day, for 700 years, in order to be involved in an incident, and even then, chances are, you'll survive."

That statement could be complete nonsense (it probably is, I'd rather not work it out, because it's comforting), but it seems to help.

Also, once I'm on the plane, I tend to be on edge. At this time, I like to accept my fate;, accept the fact that I might die, as messed up as that sounds. I might possibly die, even though the odds are astronomically low on that hapening, but it's too late to do anything about it now, so me being on edge and alert really isn't going to help. I just have to put my life in the hands of the driver and the plane, and trust them.".

I'm not nearly as bad as I used to be, since I'm forced to do it quite regularly now.

ETA: In my experience, those afraid of flying tend to be kinda untrusting control freaks, who hate the feeling of loss of control, and don't really tust the guy in charge, or the builders of the plane, or the laws of physics...and so on.

[MWare]

I had the same premonition, but don't worry, it wasn't your plane.

[Azrael 5]

Statistically you are more likely to be in an accident on the drive to the airport than on the plane!!
Think how many flights take off very day.When was the last major plane crash? Probably just after 9/11,that freak crash everyone thought was sure to be terrorism.
If you worry about eventualities you would never leave the house! ;)

[Rasmus]

If you worry about eventualities you would never leave the house! ;)

and die because of an undetected gas leak.

[sackett]

Hey, I invented fear of flying – not just nervous distaste for being locked into a roaring cannister, I mean cold-sweating irrational panic. I could eat Xanax like popcorn before a flight, and all it did was make me sluggishly terrified instead of twitching, monkey-screeching terrified.

At the same time, my rational mind worked perfectly well. I was aware of the fact that I had one chance in 27 million (or some such crazy number) of dying in an airliner crash. Didn’t make a speck of difference: I knew that my little ball of string would be wound up this time.

I had also read that +90 percent of accidents happen on takeoff or landing, but that fact was infinitely remote from my present “reality”: Turbulence scared (and still scares) the Scheiss outa me, while conversely landing (a fraught time up in the cockpit) eases my fears. Ah! The good old Earth is rising up to meet our wheels! How gently, how safely we float down in our kerosene-laden mass of metal! Now all manner of things shall be well!

I’ve been in three car crashes, not mere fender-benders either, and yet every day I calmly drive to and from work in big-city traffic, braving odds far, far worse than flying presents. Risk? Danger? Statistical likelihood of an accident? Pfui, who cares? I’m drivin’ m’ car, ‘n ain’t NUTHEN gonna happen ta ME!

There was one occasion when I flew without fear. The girl friend and I went on a whale-watching flight from Kaikoura, New Zealand, in a single-engine plane. We took off from a grass strip (maintained by grazing sheep, I think) and buzzed out over the Pacific to observe the sperm whales that frequent the deeps there: one engine, 500 feet of altitude, a shockingly young pilot, and me in the back seat holding a silly little yellow lifebelt. Visibility was only so-so, too. Those factors found a corner in the back of my mind at best, and I felt no fear at all. The sight of those great whales made it all worthwhile! Eventually we landed back on the sheep pasture (in failing light), and I climbed out of that deathtrap, excuse me, cockpit feeling as cool as Smilin’ Jack.

So rationality has nothing to do with fear of this sort. Be of good cheer, Aggle. Flight is an ancient dream, and we’re lucky to have lived into an age when Man flies far and free, and more safely than he walks his own streets.

[Humphreys]

I'm the same, sackett, in that I used to be fine, and suddenly wasn't, and there appears to be no incident I can think of to trigger the fear. Maybe getting older did it.

Also, like you, I'm fine on landings. I almost start to relax completely as soon as the descent starts, actually. My brain reasons that we're on the way down now, so if anything goes wrong, well, it won't matter, because that's the direction we're headed anyway - the ground!

Take off and turbulence are the worst bits, for me. I hate the feeling of steeply rising as the plane goes up, and the roor of the engines switching on, and the fact the plane starts to move very fast indeed.

Is this all helping, aggle?

[Gravy]

To make matters worse, I find references to plane crashes wherever I look. There have been TWO "Seconds from Distaster" episodes in the last week describing airliner crashes. During one, my wife helpfully provided the information that the type of plane with a defect that causes it to unexpectedly spiral into the ground, killing everyone on board, is the very one that we're going to be flying on.

Did someone force you to watch this? I'm trying to sympathize, aggie, but I can't help thinking that you're getting a bit of a rush out of scaring yourself. Finding a reference to plane crashes is one thing. Watching TV shows about terror in the skies is another.


And if I'm going to calculate odds, what are the odds of a plane actually crashing right after one of the passengers had a premonition of a plane crash? Well...probably the same as the odds that the plane would crash at all. Very low.

The odds of a plane crashing are astronomically low. I'd say that the odds of a plane crashing after one of its passengers imagines it crashing are extremely high, but it's not the thought that causes the crash. I would guess that most airline passengers—and close to all infrequent fliers—have thoughts, however fleeting, of what a plane crash would be like. I love to fly, but I have never once been on a plane without having those thoughts. So, when you fly, look around the cabin and know that you're in good, white-knuckled company. A peaceful mantra might help...try "Woo is woe, woo is woe." If that doesn't work, I'm told that Valium is pretty sure-fire.

Enjoy your trip!

ETA: I just read Sackett's post. If you ask for Valium, tell the doctor it's for the tranquilizer darts in your elephant gun.

[richardm]

I would guess that most airline passengers—and close to all infrequent fliers—have thoughts, however fleeting, of what a plane crash would be like.

I do quite a lot of flying, and I put myself into this camp. It's usually on the climb after takeoff when we're still quite close to the ground. I never actually get anxious about it - but I do quite often think "What if?". Other than that, I'm fascinated by the process of flying, and takeoff and landing (and approach) are the most interesting bits. Perhaps if you're thinking about what's happening it helps remove any latent twitchiness, rather than leaving you feeling like a trapped spectator. It's this feeling of being out of control that upsets many, I think, and the converse is why you feel so safe in your car, even though you're actually much more exposed to danger there.

[Bob Klase]

And if I'm going to calculate odds, what are the odds of a plane actually crashing right after one of the passengers had a premonition of a plane crash? Well...probably the same as the odds that the plane would crash at all. Very low.

No way to ever prove this, but I'd bet that in at least 75-80% of every large plane that ever crashed has at least one person on board that had a premonition of a plane crash. And 75-80% of every large plane that didn't crash also had at least one person on board that had a premonition of a plane crash.

[DeVega]

I really sympathize - I am just the same, mind-numbingly terrified every time. I know it is in some senses irrational - and yes, I am a control freak I suppose. But nothing makes it better...

I still fly though. I wouldn't want to miss out on the world. Some of the trips I have flown to have been the best times in my life. I find the memory of the flight soon fades. But I must admit, my first question when my hubbie & I are planning a trip somewhere is - what's the flight time to there?

Good on you Aggle-rithm and Sackett for still flying... feel the fear and do it anyway, huh? Makes us guys the bravest on the plane!

[rikzilla]

I've never been frightened of planes...but I do have an irrational fear of high places. Funny huh? I figured I'd conquer my fear by getting my private pilot license. I did you know! But it's not the same. Looking down from a high place still gives me a thrilling sensation of fear...but I learned to interpret that feeling as excitement instead.

Now my wife has just become a flight attendant on an international route. I'm scared for her all the time even though she's fine with airplanes. When I know she's up there...well I just stay freaked until I hear from her again.

Weird huh?
-z

[Psi Baba]

How many digits are in your flight number? It's always 3-digit numbered flights that crash, never 4-digit numbered flights.
/woo mode

[Mrs. Hmmphries]

I'm the same, sackett, in that I used to be fine, and suddenly wasn't, and there appears to be no incident I can think of to trigger the fear. Maybe getting older did it.

Also, like you, I'm fine on landings. I almost start to relax completely as soon as the descent starts, actually. My brain reasons that we're on the way down now, so if anything goes wrong, well, it won't matter, because that's the direction we're headed anyway - the ground!

Take off and turbulence are the worst bits, for me. I hate the feeling of steeply rising as the plane goes up, and the roor of the engines switching on, and the fact the plane starts to move very fast indeed.

Is this all helping, aggle?


Somehow I knew you'd be in this thread...


Anyways, aggle, you'll be fine.

Unless, ofc, Psi Baba is right, and you've got a three number flight...

KIDDING.

[sackett]

Takeoffs didn't bother me much until I read somewhere that "no pilot likes takeoffs."

Did my state of mind no good at all.

[Arkan_Wolfshade]

Takeoffs didn't bother me much until I read somewhere that "no pilot likes takeoffs."

Did my state of mind no good at all.

Unless I'm remembering misinformation (which is always a risk), takeoffs and landings are the highest stress times on the plane mechanics.

[Azrael 5]

Arent landings supposedly safer generally as the plane has less fuel in it?

[rikzilla]

Takeoffs didn't bother me much until I read somewhere that "no pilot likes takeoffs."

Did my state of mind no good at all.

On takeoff you are slow...at full throttle...close to the ground...heavy....and most of the runway is behind you and facing the wrong way.

Any slight power loss at this moment can ruin your whole day...and there's nothing anyone can do to change these unhappy circumstances should they occur. This is why pilot's don't like takeoffs. They don't like being left with nearly no options.

Most other situations offer "outs". But this not-so-sweet spot is best measured in seconds...and a plane can still fly on a single engine...just can't climb.

Aircraft are very, very safe all in all. But I still worry about my wife being as she is constantly in the sky.

-z

[aggle-rithm]

Unless I'm remembering misinformation (which is always a risk), takeoffs and landings are the highest stress times on the plane mechanics.


The book I'm reading says that 85% of plane crashes occur at takeoff and landing, and are thus "potentially" survivable. Some crashes are not even theoretically survivable, because to survive a collision with the water, for instance, you cannot be moving faster than 70 MPH, and it only takes a few hundred feet to reach this speed (besides the fact that you're already moving forward at several hundred MPH!). However, these are very, very rare.

I know this intellectually. Still makes me nervous though.

[aggle-rithm]

No way to ever prove this, but I'd bet that in at least 75-80% of every large plane that ever crashed has at least one person on board that had a premonition of a plane crash. And 75-80% of every large plane that didn't crash also had at least one person on board that had a premonition of a plane crash.

I would guess it's closer to 100%! Depends on how you define "premonition", I guess.

[aggle-rithm]

Take off and turbulence are the worst bits, for me. I hate the feeling of steeply rising as the plane goes up, and the roor of the engines switching on, and the fact the plane starts to move very fast indeed.

Is this all helping, aggle?

Oh, yes!

My biggest problem is trying to analyze the facial features of the flight attendants. If one of them looks worried or stressed, I think, "That's it! We're all going to die, and they don't want us to know!"

One thing that helps me is to remember something about my tech support days. Often people would call in, panicking, because they were afraid they had lost critical data. I knew, however, that it was often WAY too early to panic at this stage, because I knew of ten or twenty things I could try to recover the data.

The same is probably true of aircraft problems. The pilots, air traffic controllers, and especially the engineers who designed the plane are the experts, the passengers are just a bunch of armchair aviators. Problems that would probably make my blood run cold, if I knew about them, are likely all in a day's work for them.

[JohnboyMN]

My biggest problem is trying to analyze the facial features of the flight attendants. If one of them looks worried or stressed, I think, "That's it! We're all going to die, and they don't want us to know!"

Most likely it just means "We're out of coffee". ;)

There are a million mundane things that can stress out a flight attendant. Trying to read their faces is probably not very productive.

[Timothy]

No way to ever prove this, but I'd bet that in at least 75-80% of every large plane that ever crashed has at least one person on board that had a premonition of a plane crash. And 75-80% of every large plane that didn't crash also had at least one person on board that had a premonition of a plane crash.

Plane crash survivor: "I just *knew* it...I had a feeling the plane was going to crash" is precisely the same phenomenon that occurs when we hear from the lottery winners: "I just *knew* I was going to win!"

Just as virtually everyone who travels as a passenger on a plane has fleeting thoughts about the worst outcome, everyone who buys a lottery ticket has fleeting thoughts about the best outcome. Even more telling "evidence" are the people who dream about plane crashes or lottery wins...to them it surely presaged the event. They just can't comprehend that to objectively examine any effect would require finding out how many passengers of an uneventful plane ride or how many lottery losers had dreams about the opposite outcome.

- Timothy

[Timothy]

Tomorrow, I'm going on my first plane flight since 9/11 scared everyone out of the skies.

You *will* tell us if your plane crashes, right?

- Timothy

[sesmo_k]

My biggest problem is trying to analyze the facial features of the flight attendants. If one of them looks worried or stressed, I think, "That's it! We're all going to die, and they don't want us to know!"

I completely sympathise. I was on a flight a couple of years ago coming in to land in Corfu, when the air brakes didn't work. For those who don't know, coming into Corfu, you fly in over the sea. The runway extends into a secluded bay and then you stop about 25ft shy of a main road. It was definately a brown trousers moment. If I had been closer to home, I would have got off and made my own way. I remember looking at the stewards/stewardess's and they even looked scared. But, even though the airbrakes didn't work, the pilot still managed to make a safe landing. I put a lot of trust in those guys!

Since then I've had a few flying lessons which has helped.

[FramerDave]

Oh good lord, man up you nancy boy.

I mean seriously, do you have any idea how many flights take off and land every day without incident? If you're a weenie and scared to fly, then of course you're going to notice every television show about plane crashes.

Why are there so many of them? Because a safe flight that takes off and lands safely is not interesting.

Tell ya what: Skip your flight so you'll be safe, then let us know if it crashes. Then we'll talk premonition.

[aggle-rithm]

Oh good lord, man up you nancy boy.

I mean seriously, do you have any idea how many flights take off and land every day without incident? If you're a weenie and scared to fly, then of course you're going to notice every television show about plane crashes.

Why are there so many of them? Because a safe flight that takes off and lands safely is not interesting.

Tell ya what: Skip your flight so you'll be safe, then let us know if it crashes. Then we'll talk premonition.

Don't worry, I'll be OK. I've accepted the inevitibility of my demise. ;)

Edited to add: Irrational fear of flying is termed thus because it is just that -- irrational. It doesn't matter whether you KNOW that it's not likely to end in disaster. It's like a lot of phobias that way. The part of the brain that generates the fear isn't interested in statistics.

[GregC]

I'll just add myself to the list of people who have had premonitions of doom and disaster just before flying. I have to admit that once I'm up in the air I do calm right down. And just like yourself, It always seems the month before I'm going to fly it's disaster month on Discovery channel, TLC, Nova, you name it. The best one was flying with my daughter from San Diego to Manchester NH a couple of years ago. I went to pick her up and as soon as I walked in the door she asked if we were flying in a gray plane with a red "N" on the tail. I said yes, we were flying Northwest and asked why. She looked at me and said, "I dreamed you were on a gray plane with a red 'N' on the tail and the wing fell off." Thank you sweetheart, daddy loves you, too. It wasn't until after we got to New Hampshire I realized in her dream it was me and not us flying. Oh well, I've flown a few more times on Northwest since then and nothing more than a few bumps.

[chracatoa]

so a question comes to mind... is it ok to have a irrational belief in the supernatural (e.g., God, angels, etc.) to help fight a irrational fear? :D

now, seriously, I am also scared to death when I fly. It is worse when I fly with my kids (boy and girl, ages 2 and 4, they are a little bit afraid but they trust us), I have to pretend I'm ok. I usually take xanax to turn off my adrenaline, but I don't like to be "on drugs" when I'm with them.

And yes, losing control is a big issue to me. That's why I don't like valium...

[Euromutt]

The best one was flying with my daughter from San Diego to Manchester NH a couple of years ago. I went to pick her up and as soon as I walked in the door she asked if we were flying in a gray plane with a red "N" on the tail. I said yes, we were flying Northwest and asked why. She looked at me and said, "I dreamed you were on a gray plane with a red 'N' on the tail and the wing fell off."Do you and yours fly Northwest a lot? I ask because if that's the livery your daughter is most familiar with, or the most disctintive livery she's familiar with, it's the one most likely to pop up in a dream. I suspect that if I were to dream about air travel, the aircraft would be a mixture of Southwest and Alaskan on the outside and Aeroflot on the inside.

Aggle-rithm, for what it's worth, I've flown a half a dozen different airlines since 9/11, including Aeroflot domestic (i.e. within Russia) and come out with nothing worse than numbed feet and buttocks.

[GregC]

Do you and yours fly Northwest a lot? I ask because if that's the livery your daughter is most familiar with, or the most disctintive livery she's familiar with, it's the one most likely to pop up in a dream. I suspect that if I were to dream about air travel, the aircraft would be a mixture of Southwest and Alaskan on the outside and Aeroflot on the inside.

My wife and I fly NW periodically. That was the first time I ever flew with my daughter. Usually when flying to see her I flew NW so you are right it is the one most connected with me coming and going to SD. This was my daughter of 24 years and I knew she wasn't a psychic but as an anxious flier it just made me doubly anxious. The logical side kept telling me everything would be fine and, of course, it was.

[aggle-rithm]

A-HA!
There WAS a plane crash!

I was just a little off on my location and date, and whether I would actually be on it. But, my luggage might have been on it, but for the grace of Jesus!

And it was captured on video, just like Osama Bin Laden!!!

Today, angels sing and devils cry in their sinful, sinful beer!!!!

(Sorry, I was channeling 1inChrist for a second.)

[patnray]

On takeoff you are slow...at full throttle...close to the ground...heavy....and most of the runway is behind you and facing the wrong way.

Any slight power loss at this moment can ruin your whole day...and there's nothing anyone can do to change these unhappy circumstances should they occur. This is why pilot's don't like takeoffs. They don't like being left with nearly no options.
-z
One can't "change these unhappy circumstances", but one can anticipate and plan for them. The survival rate for planes that crash while on the ground is 98%. That survival rate is a tribute to the engineers who design and build the safety systems and to the flight crews and the people who train them.

[tkingdoll]

I'm petrified on a plane but only when it's over water. Why?

...because I can't swim.

Irrational fears just got irrationalerer.

[Hutch]

I have flown in most every type of Commercial aircraft that there is, and except for my first few landings (slowing down from 550MPH to 120MPH can be nerve-wracking if you're looking out the window and it appears the whole bloody airplace is about to come to a stop in the middle of the sky) I haven't had any nerves about flying--at least on the bigger planes. There was the trip in the 7-passenger Cessna from Newport News to Baltimore in a Thunderstorm which did make me a little nervous...:eek: :eek: :eek:

Besides, when I visited Tanzania/Kenya in 2003, I flew on four separate prop planes in the middle of Africa, and also spent two hours in a hot-air balloon. If the Sky Gods were going to get me, that was the time. But I'm still here and getting ready for more travel in about 10 days.

[Ceritus]

Funny thing is I don't worry about it either way, when I get into the aircraft I think 1 of 2 things besides the reasoning for my trip. 1.) This plane could go down and I could die but if I survive I am looking forward to a big fat check or two this plane could go down, what am I going to do on its way down for last minutes of fun, So I count seats towards the finest woman I see on the flight and prepare.

[hellaeon]

instead of focusing on how many crash, focus on how many do not crash.
I hate flying!

Good fix for that - Alcohol.

I remember being very drunk during some bad turbulence and all I could do was laugh. Amazing how alcohol destroys all inhibitions

[Londinius]

Arguably, aircraft is the safest transportation, more so than road vehicles. After all, those airliners are operated by trained pilots. I don't see why one should worry about plane crash while you can sit comfortably in a car.

[Kenny 10 Bellys]

I think there's something about being in a thin aluminium tube full of aviation fuel with 4 screaming engines attached moving at 550mph whilst 5 miles up in the air that concentrates the mind wonderfully. And not on happy thoughts.

I have no fear of flying, I would love it if not for the child-sized seats, and taking flying lessons is great fun and will definitely go a long way to curing any fear someone might have. When you know a bit more about whats involved you feel that bit better.