Cheney to resign-health reasons: Condie on short list

[Rob Lister]

Okay, not really...at least not yet. Certainly a possibility.

But...

I want to hear from our liberals as to:
1) their personal opinon, and
2) what they think the public democrat opinion will be

I want to hear from our conservatives as to:
1) their personal opinon, and
2) what they think the public republican opinion will be

Let's play.

[Zep]

Even if the creep died, they wouldn't take the office away from him. They'd prop his stuffed corpse in the chair, rather than admit they were wrong in choosing him. However the decisions he would make from then on would be an improvement...

[Rob Lister]

ah, come on zep.

Let's do this little think tank. This really could happen and I think it would be interesting to be able to look back on how accurate we all are one the anticipated perspectives.

Just for once, let's drop our own rhetoric and focus on the likely future rhetoric of the professionals, i.e., our elected representatives.

[Mark]

Okay, not really...at least not yet. Certainly a possibility.

But...

I want to hear from our liberals as to:
1) their personal opinon, and
2) what they think the public democrat opinion will be

I want to hear from our conservatives as to:
1) their personal opinon, and
2) what they think the public republican opinion will be

Let's play.

I reject the term liberal for me, but will answer anyway.

1) My personal opinion is that it would not make one bit of difference in terms of this administration's policies. So who cares if he resigns?

2) In the event, I suspect Democratic leaders would utterly fail to capitalize on such a resignation. Democratic voters won't much care. Why would they? The horrid policies of the Republican Party will go merrily on.

[Rob Lister]

I fear you miss the point, the significance, of Condie being the selected replacement. It would send shockwaves through american politics. Shouldn't be so but it is so. That was really the point of the post.

I do admire you for not noticing it, even though it it obvious. It means you are completely color blind. Politics is not.

[Zep]

ah, come on zep.

Let's do this little think tank. This really could happen and I think it would be interesting to be able to look back on how accurate we all are one the anticipated perspectives.

Just for once, let's drop our own rhetoric and focus on the likely future rhetoric of the professionals, i.e., our elected representatives.Hey, Rob - Sorry about that, but people like Chaney get my goat good and proper.

Anyway, they are YOUR elected representatives, I'm afraid. We had nothing to do with it.

*sigh*

Condi would be a vast improvement anyway, but it won't happen. The current conservative bias won't let a woman that close to the presidency (heartbeat away), let alone a "woman of colour", no matter how qualified she may be. And especially considering the the boob now in the Oval Office.

What IS the procedure for replacing a Vice President anyway?

[Mark]

I fear you miss the point, the significance, of Condie being the selected replacement. It would send shockwaves through american politics. Shouldn't be so but it is so. That was really the point of the post.

I do admire you for not noticing it, even though it it obvious. It means you are completely color blind. Politics is not.

I appreciate the compliment (and I hope it's true...I think it is), but I suspect that Republicans would overwhelmingly accept Condie. Not so much because they are color blind (neither are Democrats) but because they would feel she could whup the Dems. And they would very likely be correct.

[TragicMonkey]

Rice may be part of the general tomfoolery around Bush, but she's not evil through and through like Dick "Sauron" Cheney.

[Rob Lister]

You guys are doing great but follow the format!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

p.s. Mark, I was being forthright: not sarcastic


YO!


Follow the format

1) Your opinion
2) Your opinion of the likely 'elected' rhetoric

Let's do this right and no bitching.

[Mark]

You guys are doing great but follow the format!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

p.s. Mark, I was being forthright: not sarcastic


YO!


Follow the format

1) Your opinion
2) Your opinion of the likely 'elected' rhetoric

Let's do this right and no bitching.


I know we have had our disagreements, Rob, but I really did take your comment as an intentional compliment. My appreciation was quite sincere.

[davefoc]

The idea of Cheney resigning is interesting and the idea that Ms. Rice would replace Cheney is even more interesting.

My guess though, is at this point it would make little difference. Cheney and his band of merry men seems to have steered the country into a war. The great effect that Cheney could or would have is that.

The political capital of Bushco at this point is just about as small as is possible for a president whose party holds majorities in the house and the senate. The chances of any significant policy initiatives by Bushco are very small regardless of who they get to replace Cheney.

The counter argument is that if they got somebody who could inspire Bush to constrain congress's out of control spending and perhaps some ideas about how to get out of Iraq in the cleanest way possible. It seems very unlikely to me. The Bush Presidency is failed and the best hope for the country right now is that we can make it through the next two years without Bush initiating some kind of world crisis.

[Zep]

The Bush Presidency is failed and the best hope for the country right now is that we can make it through the next two years without Bush initiating some kind of world crisis.Dave, with respect, what makes you think he hasn't done that already?

[davefoc]

Dave, with respect, what makes you think he hasn't done that already?

I guess this question was both a little humorous and a little serious.

The serious answer is, I think, that nobody knows. It could be that Bushco has prevented some great world disaster and it could be that Bushco has planted the seeds that will lead to a great world disaster.

My guess, though, is that the little adventure ends in two years without either a great world disaster or without any great beneficial changes that can be clearly linked to it.

As to why I think the above: No great reason. Great world disasters are fairly rare so another one because of the Bushco Iraq war seems unlikely just based on the statistics. Still, the war has energized the Iranian fundamentalists, reduced the power of middle east moderates as far as Israel is concerned and it may have encouraged the North Koreans to pursue more belligerent policies. All of which could lead to some pretty nasty stuff.

And of course, it may lead to a stable democratic Iraq, which will be so wonderful that the rest of the middle east governments are forced to adopt the Iraq model which leads to great peace and happiness throughout the middle east, which leads to an end to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. All of which will be good for the US as the countries that have spawned the mideast terrorists are overcome with a wave of pro-Americanism that puts an end to all terrorism directed at western targets.

[Zep]

I see. ;) Thank you!

[Chaos]

I guess in the narrow dualistic way as put forth in the opening post, I sort of qualify as a liberal. *sigh*

*snip*
Condi would be a vast improvement anyway, but it won't happen. The current conservative bias won't let a woman that close to the presidency (heartbeat away), let alone a "woman of colour", no matter how qualified she may be. And especially considering the the boob now in the Oval Office.
*snip*

I have to agree here. There´s no chance a "woman of colour", as you so delicately phrase it, is going to get any more power than Condi currently has - not under the current breed of US politicians, of both major parties.


As for the main topic itself... I´m not sure if it´s going to change anything, having someone else in that seat. Cheney isn´t the only one in the administration to think like he does, and I´m not aware that Condi disagrees with him on anything major.
The Democrat reaction... probably nothing.

[jj]

ah, come on zep.

Let's do this little think tank. This really could happen and I think it would be interesting to be able to look back on how accurate we all are one the anticipated perspectives.

Just for once, let's drop our own rhetoric and focus on the likely future rhetoric of the professionals, i.e., our elected representatives.


I think they'll put whoever they think will make the next best presidential candidate in the seat.

Possibly Delay, or Frist, or maybe Condie, but I doubt they really could deal with the reality of that even if she'd be a good candidate. Maybe Jeb, who knows :)

[Rob Lister]

I guess in the narrow dualistic way as put forth in the opening post, I sort of qualify as a liberal. *sigh*



I have to agree here. There´s no chance a "woman of colour", as you so delicately phrase it, is going to get any more power than Condi currently has - not under the current breed of US politicians, of both major parties.




I disagree with your analysis. Condie may be, whether she wants to be or not, the forerunning preferred republican candidate. Problem is, of course, she [says] she is simply not interested in the job (and I don't blame her). However, if the VP job is thrust upon her by appointment rather than an election process, she may very well accept it.

And do not think it couldn't happen. Bush :heart: Condie. Bush is the one that decides. The congress can overtly reject her, but few republicans would and that would put the democrats in the very, very difficult position of rejecting, as you but it, "a women of color".

Personally, I think she'd make a very fine VP, or for that matter, a very fine P. I think a great many of the right-leaning members of this forum would agree, but I guess they can speak for themselves.

[hgc]

I think they'll put whoever they think will make the next best presidential candidate in the seat.

Possibly Delay, or Frist, or maybe Condie, but I doubt they really could deal with the reality of that even if she'd be a good candidate. Maybe Jeb, who knows :)I can't imagine why you think DeLay or Frist would be considered for presidential annointment. DeLay is going to jail. Frist has the personality of a wet dish rag, and an insider-trading scandal brewing.

Condi, although widely publicy acceptable, would never be accepted for president by the theocrats, who though not necessarily running the Republican party, have veto power. I think that Condi is the logical choice for VP in this scenario precisely because she won't run for president. She would be confirmed in the Senate 100-0.

[jj]

I can't imagine why you think DeLay or Frist would be considered for presidential annointment. DeLay is going to jail. Frist has the personality of a wet dish rag, and an insider-trading scandal brewing.


Sarcasm. Sorry. I thought it was obvious.


Condi, although widely publicy acceptable, would never be accepted for president by the theocrats, who though not necessarily running the Republican party, have veto power. I think that Condi is the logical choice for VP in this scenario precisely because she won't run for president. She would be confirmed in the Senate 100-0.

I get the distinct impression that she's too smart to want the job.

[CapelDodger]

Condi, although widely publicy acceptable, would never be accepted for president by the theocrats, who though not necessarily running the Republican party, have veto power.
Condi's not a declared atheist nor a Catholic, so she's not an immediate write-off. How much would depend on her running-partner? If he could tickle the millenarians tummies that might be enough.

Crucial, of course, would be the involvement of Uncle Karl Rove and his dark arts. He has a lot of pull with the holy, as I understand it. The endorsement of Bush would also be helpful.

As to the colour/gender bar that people have brought up, that's just soooooo yesterday's thinking. The most important way she's not-Bush is inside the skull, not melanin-levels or arrangements of tickly bits. I suspect it will be the crucial element in 2008.

Condi for Pres!

(I post as a free-thinker, I'm not a liberal.)

[CapelDodger]

I get the distinct impression that she's too smart to want the job.
There's no lack of ambition in her resume. I don't think she's the driven type, but she's taken up the opportunites and challenges that have been offerred. Were she offered a good shot at the Presidency, would she quail? Not only would she be first female and first black President, but just by being more successful than Bush Minor's egregious example she could be remembered as a Great President.

[CapelDodger]

Okay, not really...at least not yet. Certainly a possibility.
Would it be sound strategy? Condi is already Secretary of State, and foreign affairs are going loom large in 2008. She's relatively untainted with the whole Iraq imbroglio, but could easily become associated with a withdrawal over the next two years. Subsequent developments in Iraq will be very muted if the boys are back home. Hey, you gave them Democracy, you taught their army and police civilised manners, they thanked you and you left. If it all goes s**t-shaped afterwards, well, bunch of crazy Muslims, waddya gonna do?

Condi needs to take Rumsfeld's head just before things start looking better in Iraq. Her personal rapport with Bush Minor makes that possible. If she's going for it she doesn't need Cheney out and an unknown, but possibly viable, incumbent VP.

[Rob Lister]

Capel, she's has been asked repeatedly if she will run. She states "No, I shall not. My next position is to be the commissioner of football," or something along those lines.

She's likely afraid more of the very in-depth 'personal background check' the press will do on her were she to run. She's middle aged, never married, and no hint of a romance anywhere in her past. That's tabloid fodder.

[CapelDodger]

Personally, I think she'd make a very fine VP, or for that matter, a very fine P. I think a great many of the right-leaning members of this forum would agree, but I guess they can speak for themselves.
I'm by no means right-leaning but I think that Condi Rice has the intellect and pragmatism to be a remarkable President. In the FDR league, because of the trials and tribulations that are coming. And as FDR had Hoover and Coolidge to outshine, Condi Rice has Bush Minor.

[CapelDodger]

Capel, she's has been asked repeatedly if she will run. She states "No, I shall not. My next position is to be the commissioner of football," or something along those lines.

She's likely afraid more of the very in-depth 'personal background check' the press will do on her were she to run. She's middle aged, never married, and no hint of a romance anywhere in her past. That's tabloid fodder.
None of it will matter if Uncle Karl's Dark Arts are employed for Condi's camp. If they're employed against her she's dead meat, no question.

"No I shall not" long before the cut-off point is worth zero, however repeated. Nobody ever runs by intention, they're "called to the service of their country". My dream lives on.

Condi for Pres!

[kittynh]

can't I pretend instead Bush is going to quit because he and Rumsfeld are "coming out" and want to get married in Vermont and adopt a child together?

Now that's happiness.

[Zep]

There's no lack of ambition in her [Condi's] resume. I don't think she's the driven type, but she's taken up the opportunites and challenges that have been offerred. Were she offered a good shot at the Presidency, would she quail? Not only would she be first female and first black President, but just by being more successful than Bush Minor's egregious example she could be remembered as a Great President.My thoughts too, more or less.

[jj]

can't I pretend instead Bush is going to quit because he and Rumsfeld are "coming out" and want to get married in Vermont and adopt a child together?

Now that's happiness.


Only somebody from New Hampshire would want them to move to Vermont!

[headscratcher4]

I don't understand why Ms. Rice is such a darling and so many GOP/Bush supporters think she will save the day.

Bush's biggest problem is that he has lost the confidence of the public as a result of the war.

Condi was there, in the room, at the table telling Bush what he wanted to hear from the very beginning...telling him he was being tough. Telling him not to listen to anyone who wasn't as tough as he is. Whatever mess the President is in is due, in no small part to the influence of Ms. Rice.

In short, if the war is wrong, if the policy is a failure, if the Administration has lost public confidence and support, if the Presiednet can't get it turned around...Condi is part of the problem NOT the solution.

While she certainly has better legs and, seemingly a less calous heart (or at least one that works) than does Cheney...we are in the mess we're in now because she helped push us there.

Now, making her VP has some short term value...it would be novel. But in the end, it is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic because putting lipstick on the pig will only help IF the pig, in the end, finds a way to get its head out of the slop and smile.

[hgc]

I don't understand why Ms. Rice is such a darling and so many GOP/Bush supporters think she will save the day.

Bush's biggest problem is that he has lost the confidence of the public as a result of the war.

Condi was there, in the room, at the table telling Bush what he wanted to hear from the very beginning...telling him he was being tough. Telling him not to listen to anyone who wasn't as tough as he is. Whatever mess the President is in is due, in no small part to the influence of Ms. Rice.

In short, if the war is wrong, if the policy is a failure, if the Administration has lost public confidence and support, if the Presiednet can't get it turned around...Condi is part of the problem NOT the solution.

While she certainly has better legs and, seemingly a less calous heart (or at least one that works) than does Cheney...we are in the mess we're in now because she helped push us there.

Now, making her VP has some short term value...it would be novel. But in the end, it is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic because putting lipstick on the pig will only help IF the pig, in the end, finds a way to get its head out of the slp and smile.My view is a slight variation. This war was a Cheney/Rumsfeld operation from the beginning. Rice had a choice of being a team player or getting sidelined altogether. For all I know she might have thought Iraq was a good idea, but gosh darnit when she talks she sure sounds intelligent -- so I don't believe it.

Same goes for Colin Powell. He abetted the war, against his better judgement, in order to be a team player. His reputation is forever ruined.

[President Bush]

Think of everything this administration does as specifically designed to ensure the Vice President succeeding me come 2008.

[Dr Adequate]

She's likely afraid more of the very in-depth 'personal background check' the press will do on her were she to run. She's middle aged, never married, and no hint of a romance anywhere in her past. That's tabloid fodder. But surely they've already done the "background check". It's not as if she's a nonentity now and will only become newsworthy if she runs for President.

[Rob Lister]

But surely they've already done the "background check". It's not as if she's a nonentity now and will only become newsworthy if she runs for President.

SecState ain't VP, Nor P.

As SecState, there's little good in slinging mud at her. Were she to run in an election, mud is an absolute necessity. If they couldn't find something real, they'd make something up.

[headscratcher4]

SecState ain't VP, Nor P.

As SecState, there's little good in slinging mud at her. Were she to run in an election, mud is an absolute necessity. If they couldn't find something real, they'd make something up.

"they" wouldn't have to make it up. If the War in Iraq is still a disaster, if the U.S. remains more or less alone and a cowboy in global politics, all they'll have to be done is to quote her, or ask her where she was and what she advised when Bush was making crucial decisions.

She could be pure as snow (not Tony) but she exists as part of the body politic because the Bush's created her...if Bush is a drag, she will have to run away and reputiate her entire public career...She's not running.

[Mark]

SecState ain't VP, Nor P.

As SecState, there's little good in slinging mud at her. Were she to run in an election, mud is an absolute necessity. If they couldn't find something real, they'd make something up.

Worked like a charm for the Swift Boat Veterans.

[headscratcher4]

Also, gotta love the "They" (we know who we are)...as if such political games are somehow the province of one side (when the "They" implied, doesn't seem to be half as good or half as effective at "making it up" as the "they" that currently controls the Congress and Administration).

What do they have to make up...the last six (ny than eight) years? "They" will just have to review the record of this Administration and
"they" will than have merelly to ask Ms. Rice about her role, support, advice and statments.

Than "they" will have to sit back while the "they" in power now re-write the last eight years in a spin blizzard of monumental proportions.

[Rob Lister]

Worked like a charm for the Swift Boat Veterans.

And backfired with the CBS memos and such.

Politics = mudslinging.

[Mark]

And backfired with the CBS memos and such.

Politics = mudslinging.

The CBS memos were interesting. While the Swift Boat Veterans just lied, the CBS memos were forged but contained the truth (according to witnesses who were there at the time).

Is a forged document that tells the truth "mud slinging?" I have no idea.

Btw, this does offer evidence against the "liberal media" existing as a dominant force. If they did, the CBS memos would have been as effective as the Swift Boat veterans, at the least.

[CapelDodger]

"they" wouldn't have to make it up. If the War in Iraq is still a disaster, if the U.S. remains more or less alone and a cowboy in global politics, all they'll have to be done is to quote her, or ask her where she was and what she advised when Bush was making crucial decisions.
What if the Iraq War is over and the boys are home in two years time? Anything could be happening in Iraq by then and it wouldn't matter because the boys are home. The Secretary of State that oversaw that would get a lot of coverage and could, if things were properly handled, take on the glow of success. When Condi was NSA Cheney and Rumsfeld had their own in-house Intelligence Assessment unit which deliberately sidelined established agencies. What she said then - just as what Colin Powell said - can be put down to what they were being told. The same goes for Bush Minor - the blame is put on evil counsel, specifically from Cheney and Rumsfeld. Not Uncle Karl. Anything said against Rove is muck-raking, and Condi's campaign would be anything but that.

She could be pure as snow (not Tony) but she exists as part of the body politic because the Bush's created her...if Bush is a drag, she will have to run away and reputiate her entire public career...She's not running.
Condi created herself. She has a tanker named after her, and it's massive. Condi didn't rise without trace as Bush Minor did. She rose through ability. I'm a distant observer, reluctant to take a closer look at a superficially attractive prospect. It seems to me that Condi's career has had a lot of pull as well as push in it. "She's wasted there, we could use her here. Make an offer." That sort of thing.

[Pyrrho]

Nobody will notice any difference. Politics will carry on as before, and that is unfortunate.

[CapelDodger]

The CBS memos were interesting. While the Swift Boat Veterans just lied, the CBS memos were forged but contained the truth (according to witnesses who were there at the time).
Has it ever been established who forged them? Or is the investigation still on-going?

The really odd thing is how hard it is to establish what Bush Minor's military history actually was, given the circumstances at the time.

[jj]

Has it ever been established who forged them? Or is the investigation still on-going?

The really odd thing is how hard it is to establish what Bush Minor's military history actually was, given the circumstances at the time.

Or that we find out, eventually, that they weren't really forged, ...

Or that they were forged by a repugnican supporter who planted them where they'd be found ...

What about DUI did you say?

[CapelDodger]

Nobody will notice any difference. Politics will carry on as before, and that is unfortunate.
Democracy in principle is the shining city on the hill. Democracy in practice is politics, a dirty business. These contradictory beliefs co-exist comfortably in many brains, and there's a school of thought that defines that as insanity.

Which brings me to universal suffrage. Bad idea. Democracy works with an informed electorate. When it's about rousing the proles, it doesn't.

[Mark]

Has it ever been established who forged them? Or is the investigation still on-going?

The really odd thing is how hard it is to establish what Bush Minor's military history actually was, given the circumstances at the time.

CBS just sort of rolled over and played dead, so I don't think anyone ever bothered to try and find out who forged them. It was interesting to me (and still is) that the much larger story---the information in them was confirmed by witnesses---got buried in the process.

[davefoc]

The chance that the memo wasn't forged is close enogh to zero that for practical discussions it is reasonable to conclude that the memo was forged. We are talking OJ is innocent territory.

The likely suspect is the guy that provided it to CBS.

I thought that the producer that CBS fired had been set up as a scapegoat until I heard her talk. She was still babbling on about how it might not have been forged.

I think it is very likely that Bush used his connections to get him out of his six year contract with the military. Karl Rove or somebody had to be one friggin Genius to figure out how to turn this mess into a positive for Bush and a negative for Kerry. But accomplish it they did, but not I think without a good deal of luck thanks to the CBS ineptitude. CBS seemed to have had a reasonably good circumstantial case against Bush, but whatever credibility they had with regard to that was destroyed with the studpidity that they handled the memo with.

My not terribly well informed cut at this is that the producer and Rather reinforced each other's incompetent handling of the situation so that they managed to convince each other that they both weren't idiots. And they were wrong.

[SezMe]

What if the Iraq War is over and the boys are home in two years time?

Its an interesting scenario, but quite unlikely. Shrub has said disposition of the troops will be decided by a future Prez (making him the un-decider, but that is for a different thread). Plus the permanent military bases we are building plus the largest embassy in the world all suggest we'll be there during the '08 season.

Even the inept Dems can pin this debacle on her. She's toast politically.

[Mycroft]

Okay, not really...at least not yet. Certainly a possibility.

But...

I want to hear from our liberals as to:
1) their personal opinon, and
2) what they think the public democrat opinion will be

I want to hear from our conservatives as to:
1) their personal opinon, and
2) what they think the public republican opinion will be

Let's play.

Ooh, that would set up Condi for President in 1998!

[CapelDodger]

Its an interesting scenario, but quite unlikely. Shrub has said disposition of the troops will be decided by a future Prez (making him the un-decider, but that is for a different thread). Plus the permanent military bases we are building plus the largest embassy in the world all suggest we'll be there during the '08 season.

Even the inept Dems can pin this debacle on her. She's toast politically.
I am old, grey and bearded and have seen enough peculiar things to never say never when it comes to politics.

Shrub says something, meh, who cares. The permanent base policy, which I think was an integral objective of the original strategy, can be written off with the rest of that strategy. And publicly, these are not permanent bases, so it's not a retreat.

Two years is two-thirds of the war so far. Elections have been held, a government is forming, army and police are being trained. Given the political will withdrawal can begin now, set within a narrative that can be fed to the US electorate. "We gave them freedom, we gave them democracy, if they screw it up it ain't our fault, bunch of crazy Muslims, waddya gonna do?"

Rumsfeld is too invested in, and indentified with, the original strategy to get the process going. Condi Rice, on the other hand, isn't. She's Secretary of State and has a close personal relationship with the President. Condi Rice could get the process going and take the credit. Rumsfeld and Cheney can be demonised and take all the blame.They are so tainted by the whole debacle that Condi can appear pristine. In fact, I doubt that she contributed much to the original strategy. To the selling of it, or its public face, yes. To its inception, I think no.

It's doable.

Condi Rice could also be credited with the US not going to war with Iran.

[Rob Lister]

Sorry Mycroft, you lost me on that one.

[Mycroft]

Sorry Mycroft, you lost me on that one.

I was going off the thread title. If Rice assumed the VP, she would be a natural Republican candidate for the Presidency in 1998, like Al Gore.

[Rob Lister]

1998?

[brodski]

1998?
Yeah, Condi can be the first female, black, time-traveling president.

[hgc]

I think I can explain: Condi in 2006 as VP is in similar position as Gore in 1998 - 2 years ahead of election, she's presumtive nominee because she's VP.

Or, it may be the time-traveling thing too.

[davefoc]

I am old, grey and bearded and have seen enough peculiar things to never say never when it comes to politics.

Shrub says something, meh, who cares. The permanent base policy, which I think was an integral objective of the original strategy, can be written off with the rest of that strategy. And publicly, these are not permanent bases, so it's not a retreat.

Two years is two-thirds of the war so far. Elections have been held, a government is forming, army and police are being trained. Given the political will withdrawal can begin now, set within a narrative that can be fed to the US electorate. "We gave them freedom, we gave them democracy, if they screw it up it ain't our fault, bunch of crazy Muslims, waddya gonna do?"

Rumsfeld is too invested in, and indentified with, the original strategy to get the process going. Condi Rice, on the other hand, isn't. She's Secretary of State and has a close personal relationship with the President. Condi Rice could get the process going and take the credit. Rumsfeld and Cheney can be demonised and take all the blame.They are so tainted by the whole debacle that Condi can appear pristine. In fact, I doubt that she contributed much to the original strategy. To the selling of it, or its public face, yes. To its inception, I think no.

It's doable.

Condi Rice could also be credited with the US not going to war with Iran.

This struck me as a well thought out, plausible, but unlikely scenario.

Unlikely because the public representation of Ms. Rice would have to be so finely crafted that it just might not be possible. Ms. Rice must be disassociated from the intitial lies and foul ups of the Iraq war. And then you have to disassociate her from years of corrupt, incompetent management of the situation. Then the situation has to actually improve. And then finally Ms. Rice has to get credit for that improvement.

And after all that has been accomplished, one has to give Ms. Rice a set of views on domestic issues that are far enough to the right to allow her to get through Republican primaries and far enough to the left to allow her to get elected. A delicate task for any Republican in an electoral climate that might just preclude the election of any Republican candidate for president.

I have had one thought about the rise of popularity of Ms. Rice in conservative Republican circles. I suspect it is a way of convincing people that they aren't racists. They can point to their support of Ms. Rice and say something like, "see I support Blacks when they are competent and philosophically in sync with my views, so I'm not a racist". In fact, I think there is something to that. The alleged racism of a lot of conservatives is an idea that the Democratic party promotes well beyond the point of what truth their is in the charge with the goal of convincing blacks to vote only for Democrats.

[davefoc]

CD wrote: Condi Rice could also be credited with the US not going to war with Iran.

This vaguely goes to something which I was unaware of during the run up to the Iraq war and am only vaguely aware of now.

There was a lot of talk about how the Iraq war was a goal right from the start regardless of the 9-11 disaster. I didn't find this credible. I did not believe that any American president would go to war without the most significant evidence that there was no other way.

I have now come to understand, that in fact, a significant movement existed that believed in the preemptive use of American militray power in the middle east and that the principal architects of that view ended up in the white house. How does Ms. Rice fit it with this group?

How would the people that participate in this forum that continue to support the views of this neocon group feel about a Ms. Rice that thinks these guys are a bunch of war hungry wackos? And wouldn't a strong stand against an Iranian adventure be tantamount to excluding herself from that group? And if she stands by while Bush bombs Iran won't she be so tainted by association with this band middle east hawks that she won't have any credibility with most of the American public.

[Mycroft]

I think I can explain: Condi in 2006 as VP is in similar position as Gore in 1998 - 2 years ahead of election, she's presumtive nominee because she's VP.

Or, it may be the time-traveling thing too.

Or maybe I just haven't quite wrapped my mind about being in the 21st century yet. :)

I meant to say 2008.

[CapelDodger]

And after all that has been accomplished, one has to give Ms. Rice a set of views on domestic issues that are far enough to the right to allow her to get through Republican primaries and far enough to the left to allow her to get elected. A delicate task for any Republican in an electoral climate that might just preclude the election of any Republican candidate for president.
There's certainly a mountain to climb. The primaries are notoriously unpredictable but I think my plan's as good as any to go into them with. :)

The services of Karl Rove would be essential. He seems to deserve his reputation. He's deeply embedded in the Republican Party, likes to play dirty, and probably has a set of files that Edgar Hoover would have envied. Rice, Rove and Bush, and a sitting VP who isn't running. It's a hand worth playing.

Sadly, J K Galbraith can't be recruited to formulate the domestic policies.

[CapelDodger]

Double post.

[CapelDodger]

I have now come to understand, that in fact, a significant movement existed that believed in the preemptive use of American militray power in the middle east and that the principal architects of that view ended up in the white house. How does Ms. Rice fit it with this group?
This would be PNAC.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pnac#Position_on_Iraq

Rice doesn't appear on the membership list. Cheney, Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz, Bolton and Perle are there. Bush Minor and Uncle Karl aren't. This why I think Rice can shift the blame. She can also prise Bush Minor away from them by arguing that they've been serving the PNAC agenda, not his Presidency. The "bad counsel" argument : you've done nothing wrong, sire, these self-serving bastards have been taking advantage of you. Your rating as plausibly Worst President Ever isn't your fault, it's theirs. We have two years to salvage the situation.

Why shouldn't Bush Minor be remembered as the President who got the US out of Iraq and didn't go to war with Iran? We're talking about the electorate here, after all.

How would the people that participate in this forum that continue to support the views of this neocon group feel about a Ms. Rice that thinks these guys are a bunch of war hungry wackos?
Absolutely the Rice image I'd want to project. No rants from lecterns, but letting it be known via the usual channels. That "We've made thousands of tactical errors in Iraq" slip ... was it really a slip?

And wouldn't a strong stand against an Iranian adventure be tantamount to excluding herself from that group? And if she stands by while Bush bombs Iran won't she be so tainted by association with this band middle east hawks that she won't have any credibility with most of the American public.
If the US attacks Iran Rice is toast. As Secretary of State she's intimately involved. Ideally (for many reasons) Iran isn't attacked, oil prices drop, and all because Rice saw off the PNAC crew. And took Rumsfeld's head in the process.

[davefoc]

CD, It still seems like you have done a skillful job of figuring out a set of plausible scenarios whereby Ms. Rice would become president, but in the end (and I think you agree) it is still highly unlikely.

I especially liked this:The "bad counsel" argument : you've done nothing wrong, sire, these self-serving bastards have been taking advantage of you. Your rating as plausibly Worst President Ever isn't your fault, it's theirs. We have two years to salvage the situation.

Even as you wrote this you must have been thinking how unlikely it is that something like that would work. Bush fought like mad to install Bolton as US representative to the UN. And Bolton may be the most out there of all the neocons. And Bush has stayed with Rummy way past the point in time where it was in Bush's interest to do so. Now, of course, dumping Rummy would be seen as a personael defeat but there were times, like say around the time the prison scandals were being publicized that Rummy could have been dumped and Bush would have looked better for it. The reeling in of Cheney that was supposedly going to happen, didn't happen. Bush isn't retreating from neocon land, he is embracing it. If Rice takes him off of that path she is doing something that doesn't even look possible right now.

I can't see how Bush could be be lead to believe it was in his interest. Bush is not getting back any of the support he has lost by currying favor with the neocons and if he dumped them the only support he would have would be from the no-gay-marriage crowd. It is too late for Bush to look for other people to support him now. He's down to the neocons and the no-gay-marriage crowd and if he abandons either nobody is going to be jumping up to take their place.

[CapelDodger]

CD, It still seems like you have done a skillful job of figuring out a set of plausible scenarios whereby Ms. Rice would become president, but in the end (and I think you agree) it is still highly unlikely.
A wildly far-fetched mental exercise. But if does happen, remember you saw it here first. :)

[Rob Lister]

It is too late for Bush to look for other people to support him now. He's down to the neocons and the no-gay-marriage crowd and if he abandons either nobody is going to be jumping up to take their place.

Begging the question?

[CapelDodger]

Even as you wrote this you must have been thinking how unlikely it is that something like that would work. Bush fought like mad to install Bolton as US representative to the UN. And Bolton may be the most out there of all the neocons. And Bush has stayed with Rummy way past the point in time where it was in Bush's interest to do so.
I know, I'm like a dog with a bone ...

I see Bush Minor as a weak king, such as Edward II or Henry VI. At such courts the crucial matters are access to the titular power, control of access, and credibility when speaking "for the King". Factions form, and political change is not evolutionary but catastrophic. A faction is all-powerful right up to the day soldiers march into the Council Chamber bearing warrants and a few lordly heads litter the courtyard by evening.

If Rice can build a faction ... who knows?

Rice has access to Bush Minor professionally, as Secretary of State, and apparently personally. They seem to have a rapport, by most accounts. Were Rice a schemer she could use that to drip anti-PNAC poison in his ear.

Now, of course, dumping Rummy would be seen as a personael defeat but there were times, like say around the time the prison scandals were being publicized that Rummy could have been dumped and Bush would have looked better for it. The reeling in of Cheney that was supposedly going to happen, didn't happen. Bush isn't retreating from neocon land, he is embracing it. If Rice takes him off of that path she is doing something that doesn't even look possible right now.
It always looks like that just before the tipping-point is reached. Consider those folk who stayed on Mt St Helens because they'd "lived there for 50 years and never been vapourised yet".

If and when Bush Minor switches from one faction to another heads will roll. Rumsfeld has to be one - resignation for health reasons or "spending more time with his family" as they say over here - and Bolton's another good target, "spending more time in a rubber-room". Cheney should be left in place to remind everybody of the Old Regime.

I can't see how Bush could be be lead to believe it was in his interest. Bush is not getting back any of the support he has lost by currying favor with the neocons and if he dumped them the only support he would have would be from the no-gay-marriage crowd. It is too late for Bush to look for other people to support him now. He's down to the neocons and the no-gay-marriage crowd and if he abandons either nobody is going to be jumping up to take their place.
Bush Minor isn't going to run again. If he's thinking about anything it's about his legacy, how history sees him, not today's polls. Well, he would be if I was dripping poison in his ear.

Bush Minor's born-again audience is the one he's most comfortable with. If he endorses Rice and goes on the circuit to get out the vote he'll be happy, they'll be happy and she'll be happy. Wagging tails all round. Meanwhile the born-once, old-conservative, pragmatic elements of the Republican Party are up for grabs.

This is not about Bush Minor. It's about Rice and the Republican Party.

[senorpogo]

Hmmmmm..... (http://www4.ncsu.edu/~klbenton/young%20frankenstein.jpg)

[CapelDodger]

Hmmmmm..... (http://www4.ncsu.edu/~klbenton/young%20frankenstein.jpg)
Full marks. Not many people realise that Mary Shelley's work was the inspiration for the Republican Party.

My inspiration is Dogbert.

[davefoc]

davefoc wrote:It is too late for Bush to look for other people to support him now. He's down to the neocons and the no-gay-marriage crowd and if he abandons either nobody is going to be jumping up to take their place.

Begging the question?

I wasn't quite sure what you meant by this but it did make me think about what I wrote a bit.

It seemed to me the anti-Bush crowd has solidified to the point that there is almost nothing that Bush/Republican party could do to win their approval. The best that the Republican party could hope for, MHO, is that some of the people who think Bush is a dangerous Bozo will still be willing to vote for Republicans as long as they aren't perceived as being either too closely tied to the lobbying scandals or too closely tied to Bushco. Perhaps you disagree with this assessment?

OK, let's just take a really best case scenario:
Iraq in two years.
Relatively stable and a government not completely hostile to US.

Iran in two years:
No war or attacks from US. Iran tones down rhetoric and reduces scope of their nuclear program.

Gas prices in two years
$2.00 a gallon

Deficit
rate of deficit growth reduced by 50% accomplished by reining in of congress and maybe a second cut at such legislative disasters as the medicare drug plan.

Econcomy
About as strong as it is now. No major disasters caused by out of control deficit spending or balance of trade problems or oil supply problems.

Lobbying Reform
Republicans pass substantive Lobbying reform bill.

Yes I will admit that after having thought about it more that it is conceivable that Bush/Republican party support would increase substantially if all the above is achieved so I think my "too late" comment might not be correct. Still if all of the above was accomplished, I doubt that Bush/Republican party approval would pass 50%, but it might rise enough to prevent a major political disaster for the Republicans.

So maybe what happens is that Bush understands that spending what political capital he has left to rein in congressional pork is an important thing to do and he does it. It is hard to see why after six years of not doing it he all of a sudden does it, but it might happen.

Further, Bush semi-secretly abandons the neocon nut jobs that have dominated his foreigh policy up to now. He lets the Iraqi government know the gig is up. The US will be out in two years and it is up to the Iraqi government to figure out how to prevent a civil war. Further he ceases to squander US resources on corruptly run rebuilding projects and provides assistance to Iraqi government to run their own rebuilding projects. This results in projects that acutally help the Iraqis instead of projects that just plunder US treasury to support Bushco buddies.

And continuing in the vein of ignoring the neocon nut jobs he tries and succeeds at real diplomacy with the Iranians.

Once again, this sounds like something he could have done any time in the last six years and has decided not to, but maybe he has seen the light here and is secretly beginning to abandon the advice of the nutjobs that have gotten the US into the mess that it is in with regards to Iraq and to some degree the rest of the middle east.

It seems to me that these are exactly the kind of things that Gingrich suggested more than a year ago and from the outside it seems that Bushco completely ignored Gingrich, so I don't hold high hopes that Bushco is going to change much now. But I will admit that it is plausible, and maybe another year of coninued failures has made Bushco more open to considering some changes in direction.

And to trip on down the CD path here for a moment after all of the above happens Ms. Rice gets credit for a lot of the good stuff that happened, dodges most of the criticism for any of the bad stuff and beomes so popular that she becomes the default Republican party presidential nominee. Based on her overwhelming Republican party support she decides to run and gets an overwhelming victory in the Republican primaries. And then she narrowly beats out a Democratic candidate and becomes the first woman and the first black to be president of the US.

My guess is that the chances of all the above happening are less than one in a thousand but who knows.

[CapelDodger]

OK, let's just take a really best case scenario:
For The Republican Candidate (TRC) for 2008 to go into the campaign with?. Assuming so, my thoughts.

Iraq in two years.
Relatively stable and a government not completely hostile to US.
Check. That, surely, should be achievable.

Iran in two years:
No war or attacks from US. Iran tones down rhetoric and reduces scope of their nuclear program.
I'd accept less. No US pre-emption, of course. Iranian rhetoric will be old hat in two years if there's no action to back it. And the scope of their nuclear program isn't really that great. My bet : the Iranians won't be near The Bomb in 2008, and a policy of vigilant readiness will not have failed.

Gas prices in two years
$2.00 a gallon
Trajectory might be more important than absolute value. It could be $3.00 in 2008 if it hits $3.50 in-between. Say, in August 2006.

Deficit
rate of deficit growth reduced by 50% accomplished by reining in of congress and maybe a second cut at such legislative disasters as the medicare drug plan.
Not required. Assuming the following.

Econcomy
About as strong as it is now. No major disasters caused by out of control deficit spending or balance of trade problems or oil supply problems.
Two years without an economic crisis is not too much to ask. Adventurism - pre-emptive attacks on Iran, or China invading Taiwan, for example - is in nobody's interests.

TRC swims with the electorate, and the electorate doesn't care about deficits.

Lobbying Reform
Republicans pass substantive Lobbying reform bill.
Again, I don't think the plebs care that much. As long as TRC isn't tainted during the judicial demolition of the upstart, indiscreet element in the Lobbying Industry then there's no problem. That does make it quite likely that TRC doesn't become a candidate via Congress.

[davefoc]

It doesn't look like this guy is going to be one of those Condie voters:
http://www.boston.com/news/globe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2006/05/12/condoleezza_rice_at_boston_college_i_quit/?p1=email_to_a_friend

And on a separate thought, Al Franken, et al, gives Ms. Rice a lot of the blame for administration missteps that led to intelligence breakdowns that contributed to 9-11 disaster.

I think if Ms. Rice was going to even think about running she'd have to be thinking about having all that dug up and poured over pretty throroughly.

On further thought about this, I think Ms. Rice's chances of a successful run at the presidency are even closer to zero than I originally considered.