What happens when somebody wins?

[m_larue]

Given how long the challenge has been unsatisfied, and how many unqualified people continue to apply for it, I don't expect that anyone will take home that million any time soon.

But I've been wondering...

What will happen if somebody actually performs a bona fide "psychic" act under testable, repeatable conditions, and earns that million? Presumably the foundation will pay up. But: What happens next? What impact will that proof have on the rest of the world?

I wonder not only out of curiosity, but also because I have to address this problem in a novel-in-progress and would find the information, however speculative, very useful.

Tx.

[R.Mackey]

I would imagine what happens next is...

1. The JREF documents its findings and publishes them in a scholarly journal. There will be a wealth of detail made available for scientific scrutiny.

2. Many, many honest researchers will work hard to repeat the experiment. The original winner of the Challenge will, naturally, be invited to participate, and I sincerely hope he or she is willing to do so.

3. Many, many other honest researchers will propose alternate theories about how the event could have been faked or misinterpreted. These will be tested against the JREF trial evidence, other experiments will be set up, etc.

4. Assuming the winner is the real deal, this will be confirmed and replicated, and eventually we will all accept it as fact. Researchers will then work on understanding the process piece by piece.

...

n. The formerly paranormal event is reduced to practice, leading to a whole new field of science and technology. Mankind benefits.

I see the JREF challenge as ultimately beneficial to the paranormal, much as a stern teacher improves the student.

[Soapy Sam]

I'm curious about the term 'bona fide "psychic" act ' .

I'm also curious about the juxtaposition of two posts by newish members which seem, taken together, to support the view that the prize ultimately will be won.

[m_larue]

I do not expect it to be won. But I'd love to see it happen!

[R.Mackey]

I'm also curious about the juxtaposition of two posts by newish members which seem, taken together, to support the view that the prize ultimately will be won.
Hmm... Evidence? (you'd be wrong, btw)

Not to worry, Soaps, I've been around far too many farsical spirit-channelers, UFO-enthusiasts, speakers-to-the-dead, and even spoon benders to be easily impressed. And my training in laboratory science and statistics leaves me to suspect if any of it was real, there'd be some shred of proof by now.

But I also reject the commonly-voiced complaint by the true believers that the Challenge is simply a mean-spirited attempt to discredit unpopular beliefs. I see it as a facet of scientific inquiry, and science knows no fear.

So what would your answer be?

[rjh01]

To me it is a hypothetical question. Any attempt to answer it will be pure speculation.

Your guess will be as good as anyone else's about what will happen. I do not see any evidence that the prize could be won.

Maybe except like maybe like this:-
James Randi retires.
His replacement is not so good.
Allows a very good cheat to win.

[NiallM]

To me it is a hypothetical question. Any attempt to answer it will be pure speculation.

Your guess will be as good as anyone else's about what will happen. I do not see any evidence that the prize could be won.

Maybe except like maybe like this:-
James Randi retires.
His replacement is not so good.
Allows a very good cheat to win.
There are thoudsands of able replacements. He doesn't have any particularly unique properties, you know.

[rjh01]

Yes and I am sure that one of them will continue the tradition. But I could be wrong. Then someone is in trouble.

[m_larue]

R.Mackey wrote:
"Not to worry, Soaps, I've been around far too many farsical spirit-channelers, UFO-enthusiasts, speakers-to-the-dead, and even spoon benders to be easily impressed. And my training in laboratory science and statistics leaves me to suspect if any of it was real, there'd be some shred of proof by now."

Although a reasonable supposition, it is flawed in that it supposes that we know so much about everything now that there's still something that could escape us.

I am biased by Michael Schermer's comment: "There is no such thing as the paranormal and the supernatural; there is only the normal and the natural and mysteries we have yet to explain."

[T'ai Chi]

They'd get paid, then it might progress like

since it occured in the natural world the thing is natural
science is not done by one experiment
it is more probable that they got tricked than the supernatural exists

etc.

[Jekyll]

They'd get paid, then it might progress like

since it occured in the natural world the thing is natural
science is not done by one experiment
it is more probable that they got tricked than the supernatural exists

etc.
You're clearly right.

Scientist have no curiosity about the world around them, and would not be interested in investigating someone who managed to convince James Randi that he might have supernatural powers. They would much rather remain locked away in there ivory towers than take a chance on investigating something which could lead to the discovery of a whole new field.

[Ririon]

They'd get paid, then it might progress like

since it occured in the natural world the thing is natural
science is not done by one experiment
it is more probable that they got tricked than the supernatural exists

etc.
Let me fill in the etc. for you:

-But hey! This guy got by James rule8ing Randi!
-This means that it is extremely unlikely that a trick was used.
(I assume that Randi didn't say "OK, you got me" at the press conference.)
-So, unlike all the other woo BS in the world this might actually have something to it.
-Let's try to figure out what that something is and get rich/famous/respected/published/whateverscientistswantinlife.

[Beerina]

Let me fill in the etc. for you:

-But hey! This guy got by James rule8ing Randi!
-This means that it is extremely unlikely that a trick was used.
(I assume that Randi didn't say "OK, you got me" at the press conference.)
-So, unlike all the other woo BS in the world this might actually have something to it.
-Let's try to figure out what that something is and get rich/famous/respected/published/whateverscientistswantinlife.

Well, they have to get by the preliminary, first, which is well-recorded, allowing the experts to pour over it until they come up with theories as to how the trick is done. Then they can either disprove it right then, or wait for the next test. But it's never gotten this far, since mere "close watching" prevents fraud, and well-designed experiments prevent placebo/subconscious effect/deliberate fraud (e.g. dowsing).

[webfusion]

If someone wins the million $$$ ---

They better have a good accountant.
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=29&art_id=qw1147900685210A153

[JollyRoger]

I would imagine what happens next is...

1. The JREF documents its findings and publishes them in a scholarly journal. There will be a wealth of detail made available for scientific scrutiny.

2. Many, many honest researchers will work hard to repeat the experiment. The original winner of the Challenge will, naturally, be invited to participate, and I sincerely hope he or she is willing to do so.

3. Many, many other honest researchers will propose alternate theories about how the event could have been faked or misinterpreted. These will be tested against the JREF trial evidence, other experiments will be set up, etc.

4. Assuming the winner is the real deal, this will be confirmed and replicated, and eventually we will all accept it as fact. Researchers will then work on understanding the process piece by piece.

...

n. The formerly paranormal event is reduced to practice, leading to a whole new field of science and technology. Mankind benefits.

I see the JREF challenge as ultimately beneficial to the paranormal, much as a stern teacher improves the student.



YUCK sounds more like they put you under a micriscope and make sure your not a threat to all the dirty little secrets in the world, in the proses of trying to figure out a way to prove you a fake.

Million aint enough

[Skiltch]

I'd imagine that there'd be an absolute rush of scientists to get the person to help them scientifically show how their ability works. And a host of fakes coming around to say, "hey, we can do it too!"

[William Smith]

YUCK sounds more like they put you under a micriscope and make sure your not a threat to all the dirty little secrets in the world, in the proses of trying to figure out a way to prove you a fake.

Million aint enough

"all the dirty little secrets"...where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, right here: http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?postid=1616060#post1616060

Just don't apply then.



"Million aint enough"? We have another thread in this forum dealing with this issue. It's going very well for the person who brought it up.
Perhaps you want to join the discussion over there and enlighten us to your way of thinking why "Million aint enough".

Of course, you can also keep bringing the issue up time and again without giving any sufficient explanation. Quite common around here.

[JollyRoger]

OK I will confess I am just Jealous because I know I can not win. No superpowers

Psychologically speaking its called Paranoia, or overly suspicious.

Instead of having a wave of neurotransmitters going from one neuron to the next I get stuck with a title-wave of them. I have a bad habit of over analyzing stuff.

[William Smith]

Given how long the challenge has been unsatisfied, and how many unqualified people continue to apply for it, I don't expect that anyone will take home that million any time soon.

But I've been wondering...

What will happen if somebody actually performs a bona fide "psychic" act under testable, repeatable conditions, and earns that million? Presumably the foundation will pay up. But: What happens next? What impact will that proof have on the rest of the world?

I wonder not only out of curiosity, but also because I have to address this problem in a novel-in-progress and would find the information, however speculative, very useful.

Tx.

I suggest you browse this Forum, m_larue. You will see it has speculative threads coming out the wazoo. At certain intervals, the same themes/questions/discussions seem to come up again. And again. And...again.

If you suffer a writer's block - it'll go away. Trust me. ;)

Please do not start speculative threads. It's waste of bandwidth at worst and mental masturbation at best. The Challenge Forum features beaucoup threads where you can participate in a productive discussion. We appreciate your input.

Browse the Forum, m_larue. It'll serve your speculatory needs. I predict you will also have a laugh or two.
Upping the ante: I guarantee it.

[Yahzi]

I would imagine what happens next is...
You left out the media circus.

5. The media will make hay out of it, condeming scientists for their close-mindedness and congratulating the masses on having been right all along. Even while they misrepresent the facts of the case.

6. The religions will either condemn it as the work of the devil, or embrace it as the work of god. In both cases they will (regardless of what feat is actually achieved or what it means) take the event as proof that their narrow sectarian dogmas are God's Inspired Literal Word.

[m_larue]

<snip>
Please do not start speculative threads. It's waste of bandwidth at worst and mental masturbation at best. The Challenge Forum features beaucoup threads where you can participate in a productive discussion. We appreciate your input.

Browse the Forum, m_larue. It'll serve your speculatory needs. I predict you will also have a laugh or two.
Upping the ante: I guarantee it.

I did not frivolously start a speculative thread. Rather, I had a serious inquiry for which I browsed several of the forums seeking the proper place to raise my question. In the process I found very little information but a lot of mean-spirited laughing-at, which I didn't expect from this site.

Ultimately I chose this forum because I expected that members involved in and informed about the Challenge would be able to address my query without bandwidth-wasting drivel. I specifically launched a new thread to isolate the question.

Thanks to all who have answered it.

[William Smith]

...
In the process I found very little information


Speculative inquiries seldom yield profitable results in the Challenge Forum. Especially by rookies. No offense, m_larue. (You want speculation galore: Try the "Religion and Philosophy" Forum, for example.)


but a lot of mean-spirited laughing-at,...
...


"Evidence, please."



Dude, you have to do your own research. Being a writer, you should have this down, don't you? You will find 592 threads in the Challenge Forum alone. Go nuts. Fire up the coffee pot - or the teapot - and browse 12 hours nonstop. Pig out on information. Go on a searching spree. Enjoy this Forum up & down, left & right, spank that forum baby, turn it up yeah, spank it baby yeah, spank it, tap that...aaalllright, I took it too far.

Enjoy, anyway. :blush:

[ruach1]

I did not frivolously start a speculative thread. Rather, I had a serious inquiry for which I browsed several of the forums seeking the proper place to raise my question. In the process I found very little information but a lot of mean-spirited laughing-at, which I didn't expect from this site.

Ultimately I chose this forum because I expected that members involved in and informed about the Challenge would be able to address my query without bandwidth-wasting drivel. I specifically launched a new thread to isolate the question.

Thanks to all who have answered it.
If there is a "bona fide" psychic act that passes an uncheatable scientific test (of which Randi approves :) ), then that person will be scrutinized at all levels. He/she will probably be approached by the Pentagon to see if the ability can be "weaponized" for the security of Democracy. He/she will probabaly be asked to sponsor products in various countries--if this person's scrutinized past holds up to product endorsement. And, of course, there will be "fringe individuals" who may/will probably think something along the lines of, "Million dollar psychic, eh? Well let's see if you can psychic your way out of this bullet shot through this rifle." :boxedin:

[William Smith]

If there is a "bona fide" psychic act that passes an uncheatable scientific test (of which Randi approves :) ), then that person will be scrutinized at all levels. He/she will probably be approached by the Pentagon to see if the ability can be "weaponized" for the security of Democracy. He/she will probabaly be asked to sponsor products in various countries--if this person's scrutinized past holds up to product endorsement. And, of course, there will be "fringe individuals" who may/will probably think something along the lines of, "Million dollar psychic, eh? Well let's see if you can psychic your way out of this bullet shot through this rifle." :boxedin:

Ruach1, do you want to "PSI-Kick" your way out of the hole you dug in your thread? It's right here: http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=56299



Sorry, m_larue. Keep on browsin'.

[JollyRoger]

If there is a "bona fide" psychic act that passes an uncheatable scientific test (of which Randi approves :) ), then that person will be scrutinized at all levels. He/she will probably be approached by the Pentagon to see if the ability can be "weaponized" for the security of Democracy. He/she will probabaly be asked to sponsor products in various countries--if this person's scrutinized past holds up to product endorsement. And, of course, there will be "fringe individuals" who may/will probably think something along the lines of, "Million dollar psychic, eh? Well let's see if you can psychic your way out of this bullet shot through this rifle." :boxedin:


Now theirs some good incentive. I hear thier is some interesting people in that odd shaped office building

[ImOne]

It won't be that big of a deal. Most people are not interested in the JREF Challenge, and the challenge has little or nothing to do with science.

Tests have already been done. Psychic abilities are very weak and inconsistent. Some people are better at psi that others. The studies have always been on a small scale so achieving statistical significance is rare and the successful results are always attributed to chance, fraud, or incompetence.

The pathological skeptics will be sure the winner cheated.

The skeptics will call for more testing to make sure it wasn't a fluke.

The people that already know will wonder why it took so long.

The balance of belief will tip every so slightly as to be unnoticeable.

[gnome]

Tests have already been done. Psychic abilities are very weak and inconsistent. Some people are better at psi that others. The studies have always been on a small scale so achieving statistical significance is rare and the successful results are always attributed to chance, fraud, or incompetence.

If psi cannot be distinguished from chance results... how can it be said to exist? It is possible to test reliably for even a slight effect, by including lots of repetition.

[Flange Desire]

Psychic abilities are very weak and inconsistent. Some people are better at psi that others. The studies have always been on a small scale so achieving statistical significance is rare and the successful results are always attributed to chance, fraud, or incompetence.

Wrong - psychic abilities are consistently absent.
Any 'tests' that may show otherwise are flawed.

Wrong - no-one is better at psi than anyone else.
n * 0 = 0

Wrong - there have been a few large scale studies.

Yes, any successful results are correctly attributed to chance, fraud, or incompetence.

[TheBoyPaj]

If there is a "bona fide" psychic act that passes an uncheatable scientific test.... he/she will probabaly be asked to sponsor products in various countries


You mean, like this?

http://forums.randi.org/imagehost/131244756f5c1f146.jpg