Proving that God exists?

[Jehanne]

If I claimed that I could predict the exact outcome (that is, the exact sequence of Heads & Tails) of 100 tosses of a "fair coin" of your choosing, would you accept that as evidence of the existence of the paranormal and/or supernatural? The following protocol would apply:

1) I will pray to my deity and let him know that we are going to conduct an experiment to prove his existence. He will then inform me, in advance, of the outcome of that experiment. I will write the 100 "heads & tails" results (that is, the exact sequence of "heads & tails" that will occur) down on a paper of paper, seal that in an envelope, and then mail it to your office.

2) You conduct the "coin toss" experiment with a coin of your choosing and at a time and place of your choosing, recording the results.

3) If the results of your experiment agree exactly with my a prior claims, then we replicate the experiment again. I pray to my deity a second time, find out from him/her/it what the second sequence of "Heads & Tails" will be, write that information down, seal it in an envelope, mail it to your office, etc.

4) If the replication agrees with my second results, I win the $1 million dollars (which I will donate, in its entirety, to charity)!

5) If not, we agree that I will never perform this experiment again nor will the James Randi foundation agree to a "third" attempt.

[Cuddles]

Sounds fair. You would have to apply to Randi and confirm exact details though. I would think the actual coin toss would have to be perfomed under stricter conditions to ensure no cheating (on either side) could be performed.

[Jehanne]

Sounds fair. You would have to apply to Randi and confirm exact details though. I would think the actual coin toss would have to be perfomed under stricter conditions to ensure no cheating (on either side) could be performed.

I probably should have added that the experiment needs to be "double-blinded." For instance, I will not even be present for the experiment. I will simply pray to my deity, get the information from him/her/it, mail to Randi's offices, they can conduct the experiment before "cracking the code" (that is, opening up the envelope with the results); after that, the comparison between what has been predicted and what has occurred can be made.

[Axenos]

It's already flawed...

How can you be certain your deity would even care?

This experiment would not necessarily prove God doesn't exist... it may prove he just has something more pressing to deal with than coin tosses...

[William Smith]

Jehanne, do you mean that 98 correct guesses (predictions) will constitute a failure?

The JREF does not test for deities because these claims cannot be falsified - or proven in the first place.

If you'll claim "paranormal" power in predicting results of coin tosses, the JREF most likely will accept your application and work towards a protocol.

As Rasmus already said in the other thread, you will need to be present during the test. If you choose to apply and your application gets accepted, the test has a good chance to be performed near your home (Scandinavia?).

[Jehanne]

It's already flawed...

How can you be certain your deity would even care?

This experiment would not necessarily prove God doesn't exist... it may prove he just has something more pressing to deal with than coin tosses...

The experiment could only establish the presence of a signal. It could not establish the absence of a signal.

[matt-r]

I think that people are concerned that the protocol you suggest permits JREF to (very easily!) cheat. Now, you may say that you trust the JREF to run the test fairly, but the JREF is keen for applicants not to be able to claim that a test was run unfairly if they fail. Producing a watertight protocol of course won't completely prevent that, but it should minimise the scope for post-test disagreement or gnashing of teeth. :)

Is there any particular reason why you can't be present during the test itself? It would seem to be very easy to do it that way.

You, in advance, do whatever you need to make the predictions and then proceed to the site of the testers, who will permit you to examine the coin etc... You then hand over your predictions in the sealed envelope (only one set of predictions allowed!) and the testers conducts the test, recording the results. Then the envelope is opened in your presence, and compared with the actual test results.

This is just a rough idea, I'm sure the JREF would want to add a few more safeguards, but it's all very straightforward.

By the way, you've only talked in hypotheticals. Do you actually claim this ability? Because a thread about designing a protocol for a purely hypothetical claim isn't much fun.

Matt

[Jehanne]

Jehanne, do you mean that 98 correct guesses (predictions) will constitute a failure?

The JREF does not test for deities because these claims cannot be falsified - or proven in the first place.

If you'll claim "paranormal" power in predicting results of coin tosses, the JREF most likely will accept your application and work towards a protocol.

As Rasmus already said in the other thread, you will need to be present during the test. If you choose to apply and your application gets accepted, the test has a good chance to be performed near your home (Scandinavia?).

No, the exact sequence of the 100 coin tosses (e.g., "H", "T", "T", "H", "H", "H", ...) would need to be predicted in advance of the actual experiment.

[William Smith]

The experiment could only establish the presence of a signal. It could not establish the absence of a signal.

How often have you done this - predicting coin flips - before, Jehanne?

What results did you get?

[William Smith]

No, the exact sequence of the 100 coin tosses (e.g., "H", "T", "T", "H", "H", "H", ...) would need to be predicted in advance of the actual experiment.

Understood.

Will a success as you claim be achieved only with 100 accurate guesses/predictions?

[Jehanne]

I think that people are concerned that the protocol you suggest permits JREF to (very easily!) cheat.

I trust the JREF completely!

Now, you may say that you trust the JREF to run the test fairly, but the JREF is keen for applicants not to be able to claim that a test was run unfairly if they fail.

I will not make that claim.

Producing a watertight protocol of course won't completely prevent that, but it should minimise the scope for post-test disagreement or gnashing of teeth. :)

Is there any particular reason why you can't be present during the test itself? It would seem to be very easy to do it that way.

No, as I said, I trust the JREF completely to perform the test fairly and accurately. I do not want to waste their time, if the experiment should end-up failing.

You, in advance, do whatever you need to make the predictions and then proceed to the site of the testers, who will permit you to examine the coin etc... You then hand over your predictions in the sealed envelope (only one set of predictions allowed!) and the testers conducts the test, recording the results. Then the envelope is opened in your presence, and compared with the actual test results.

This is just a rough idea, I'm sure the JREF would want to add a few more safeguards, but it's all very straightforward.

By the way, you've only talked in hypotheticals. Do you actually claim this ability? Because a thread about designing a protocol for a purely hypothetical claim isn't much fun.

I make no claims, personally. As for the deity, he/she/it will be able to decide if they are "interested" or not!

[Axenos]

The experiment could only establish the presence of a signal. It could not establish the absence of a signal.

It could not establish either one. You would have to operate on the assumption that there is a deity in the first place... GzuzKryzt covered this above.

There is a chance that I could do it however many times in a row by sheer gazillion-to-one chance while not praying to anything.

The challenge accepts this, that someone may win by sheer luck, but with controls in place someone would probably have a better chance winning the lottery.

There is a term for your kind of argument but it escapes me right now...

[Jehanne]

How often have you done this - predicting coin flips - before, Jehanne?

What results did you get?

This will be my first time. As for the deity, I do not know and cannot say!

[Gr8wight]

If I claimed that I could predict the exact outcome (that is, the exact sequence of Heads & Tails) of 100 tosses of a "fair coin" of your choosing, would you accept that as evidence of the existence of the paranormal and/or supernatural? The following protocol would apply:

1) I will pray to my deity and let him know that we are going to conduct an experiment to prove his existence. He will then inform me, in advance, of the outcome of that experiment. I will write the 100 "heads & tails" results (that is, the exact sequence of "heads & tails" that will occur) down on a paper of paper, seal that in an envelope, and then mail it to your office.

2) You conduct the "coin toss" experiment with a coin of your choosing and at a time and place of your choosing, recording the results.

3) If the results of your experiment agree exactly with my a prior claims, then we replicate the experiment again. I pray to my deity a second time, find out from him/her/it what the second sequence of "Heads & Tails" will be, write that information down, seal it in an envelope, mail it to your office, etc.

4) If the replication agrees with my second results, I win the $1 million dollars (which I will donate, in its entirety, to charity)!

5) If not, we agree that I will never perform this experiment again nor will the James Randi foundation agree to a "third" attempt.

Sounds like you have been doing some thinking about a test design, Jehanne. Your next step would be to apply (http://www.randi.org/research/challenge.html). No one on the forum can speak for the JREF officially about whether your protocol can be accepted as is or not. However, based on what you have said, I suspect there would be a minimum of negotiation required, and a test could be arranged quite rapidly.

[Jehanne]

Understood.

Will a success as you claim be achieved only with 100 accurate guesses/predictions?

I will let the JREF decide what "significance level" that would convince them that the outcome was not due to "chance." If 100 tosses is not acceptable, how about 1,000? 10,000? Beyond that, I would start to get tired, physically speaking.

[Gr8wight]

This will be my first time.

Oh. In that case, I strongly recommend you perform some self testing before officially applying.

[William Smith]

I trust the JREF completely!
...
I make no claims, personally. As for the deity, he/she/it will be able to decide if they are "interested" or not!

It honours you and the JREF if you trust them as you say,

To get your application accepted, you must make the claim. How you achieve your "signal" is primarily irrelevant for the test.

The JREF does not care about the origin of your "signal". It cares about the claim, a success/failure scenario, the application, the protocol and of course the actual performance,

[Jehanne]

It could not establish either one. You would have to operate on the assumption that there is a deity in the first place... GzuzKryzt covered this above.

There is a chance that I could do it however many times in a row by sheer gazillion-to-one chance while not praying to anything.

The challenge accepts this, that someone may win by sheer luck, but with controls in place someone would probably have a better chance winning the lottery.

There is a term for your kind of argument but it escapes me right now...

I suspect that someone would have a much better chance of winning the lottery. But again, one replication would be needed, also! So, I would have to "get lucky" not once, but twice!

[Jehanne]

Oh. In that case, I strongly recommend you perform some self testing before officially applying.

Again, I make no claims, personally. The deity will have to decide if he/she/it is interested or not! But, again, if the result is positive, will the JREF agree to donate the $1 million to a charity of my choosing (tax-deductible, charitable organization, of course!)?

[Gr8wight]

I trust the JREF completely!



I will not make that claim.



No, as I said, I trust the JREF completely to perform the test fairly and accurately. I do not want to waste their time, if the experiment should end-up failing.



I make no claims, personally. As for the deity, he/she/it will be able to decide if they are "interested" or not!

I don't believe the JREF will elect to test this claim. As the proposed applicant freely admits that she has absolutely no idea if she can actually do what she claims, nor does she have any idea if her "deity" will participate, I'm confident the JREF will choose to spend their valuable time on claims that are less frivolous.

[William Smith]

This will be my first time. As for the deity, I do not know and cannot say!

I also strongly encourage you to do several trials. At least twenty, the more the merrier.
If you succeed every time, you have nothing to worry.
Should you not be able to perform as you claim, you would spare yourself a possible embarrassment.

The Forum Members would not want you to fail before a greater audience.

[Axenos]

I suspect that someone would have a much better chance of winning the lottery. But again, one replication would be needed, also! So, I would have to "get lucky" not once, but twice!

(Man, this thread is moving fast...)

Absolutely agree. The chances of success are minute indeed.

The way you are answering questions moves me to believe that you already know that you will fail.

So it seems to me that all you really have is a mobius loop argument (I made that term up just now) that has been argued in thousands of forms thousands of times... even Douglas Adams had a crack at it in HHGG.

[Rasmus]

The experiment could only establish the presence of a signal. It could not establish the absence of a signal.

The experiment could only show that you can predict coin flips.

In quite an extraordinary way, because there are variables covered: You are predicting a sequence that will occur when the actual test is carried out; you will not know when this is, who is flipping the coin, which coin will be used, etc. The tester could - just to be mean - do a few thousand other coin flips before and after the experiment with both other coins and the one that would be used during the experiment.

Very impressive, really.

The experiment - even if run successful - wouldn't prove that there is a god, nor would it prove anything else. The mechanism that you'd use to make your prediction doesn't enter into the final picture. The phenomenon would be confirmed, that's all. How you did it will be the subject of further research, and I guess significant progress could be made once we have cut your brain in thin slices and analysed those ;)

I make no claims, personally. As for the deity, he/she/it will be able to decide if they are "interested" or not!

Personally, I don't mind these dry exercises. But I am not certain if I understand what you try to say here.

Do you mean to say that you are just curious as to how the test might workout if anybody claimed he had the ability to predict coin flips through prayer?

Or do you think this is possible, will you try and apply for the test, but do you just think it would be a deity doing the trick and not, technically, you?

[William Smith]

Again, I make no claims, personally. The deity will have to decide if he/she/it is interested or not! But, again, if the result is positive, will the JREF agree to donate the $1 million to a charity of my choosing (tax-deductible, charitable organization, of course!)?

To get accepted for the Challenge, you, Jehanne, must make the claim. Your deity cannot sign the application and have it notarized.

Have you checked out the Challenge Rules? http://www.randi.org/research/challenge.html

Or the FAQs? http://www.randi.org/research/faq.html

[Jehanne]

I don't believe the JREF will elect to test this claim. As the proposed applicant freely admits that she has absolutely no idea if she can actually do what she claims, nor does she have any idea if her "deity" will participate, I'm confident the JREF will choose to spend their valuable time on claims that are less frivolous.

The claim would not take long to test. Probably 15 seconds per "coin toss," and 5 minutes to compare. So, 30 minutes, I suspect.

[Lothian]

If I claimed that I could predict the exact outcome (that is, the exact sequence of Heads & Tails) of 100 tosses of a "fair coin" of your choosing, would you accept that as evidence of the existence of the paranormal and/or supernatural?
No, but it is certainly enough to win the prize. Winning the prize and proving the paranormal are different things. Randi does not agree how things are to be done only the protocol to be followed.

All that can be said is that you produced a set of results that significantly exceeded chance. We don't know if you did it with a time travel machine, divine intervention, cheating or luck.

To prove God exists you need an experiment that eliminates all other possibilities.

[Jehanne]

The experiment could only show that you can predict coin flips.

You do not think that I would have established causality, in that, my prayers to my deity would have predicted how the event would have occurred? How about you generate a random list of 100 "Heads & Tails" outcomes say, through, a random number generator of your choosing prior to conducting the experiment? I then pray to my deity who will then intervene, causing the experiment to exact match the outcomes created by your random number generator. What then?

[Gr8wight]

The claim would not take long to test. Probably 15 seconds per "coin toss," and 5 minutes to compare. So, 30 minutes, I suspect.

Doesn't matter. One of the common tools used by the JREF to weed out frivolous claims like this one is to ask for the applicant to provide three notarised affidavits from people attesting that they have witnessed the applicant demonstrating their claim. They will almost certainly exercise this option in your case, should you actually apply.

At this point, further discussion of this topic would be silly until such time as you actually did apply. Do you plan to?

[Jehanne]

No, but it is certainly enough to win the prize. Winning the prize and proving the paranormal are different things. Randi does not agree how things are to be done only the protocol to be followed.

All that can be said is that you produced a set of results that significantly exceeded chance. We don't know if you did it with a time travel machine, divine intervention, cheating or luck.

To prove God exists you need an experiment that eliminates all other possibilities.

Would I still get the $1 million for my charity?

[Gr8wight]

Would I still get the $1 million for my charity?

If you apply...

and if the the JREF accepts your claim...

and if you are successful in negotiating a protocol...

and if you perform the test...

and if in the preliminary test you successfully demonstrate your claim...

and if in the final test you again successfully demonstrate your claim...

you will be awarded one million dollars which you will be able to do with as you see fit.

[William Smith]

Would I still get the $1 million for my charity?

Sure, if (in short):

YOU apply,
YOU negotiate a protocol with JREF,
YOU agree to a test,
YOU succeed as defined in the protocol.

[Gr8wight]

Oooh, I'm fast.

[Starrman]

You do not think that I would have established causality, in that, my prayers to my deity would have predicted how the event would have occurred? How about you generate a random list of 100 "Heads & Tails" outcomes say, through, a random number generator of your choosing prior to conducting the experiment? I then pray to my deity who will then intervene, causing the experiment to exact match the outcomes created by your random number generator. What then?

Let's try it. If you trust me, why don't you post a 10 flip sequence that I will then attempt at my desk with a 1996 US Dime. As soon as you have prayed, and posted the results I will get, I will flip and post the results.

For the record, I hope you get it right. But I can only give my word that I will post the actual results.

What do you say?

[roger]

100 coin tosses is a huge number to get right. I think I've seen the odds 1 in a thousand for the prelimary as being acceptable, because at those odds your chance to beat the test twice (preliminary and formal) would be 1 in a million. Your odds to do 100 coins by chance is 1 in 1.2E30. Doing it twice in a row is 1 in 1.6E60. The JREF will likely drop the number of tosses down to 10 or 20 tosses.

But, it's a simple claim, just go ahead and submit it. You just need a reasonable description of what you can do and how to test it. Randi or a representative will negotiate the details with you.

Good luck!

[Jehanne]

At this point, further discussion of this topic would be silly until such time as you actually did apply. Do you plan to?

I will ask the deity and get back to you. However, to be honest, the outlook seems kind of gloom at this point. To date none of my prayers to the deity have been answered, but I will definitively let you know if I hear from him/her/it!

[William Smith]

I will ask the deity and get back to you. However, to be honest, the outlook seems kind of gloom at this point. To date none of my prayers to the deity have been answered, but I will definitively let you know if I hear from him/her/it!

Good one, Jehanne. You really had us going for a while there. :D :D :D

[Jehanne]

Let's try it. If you trust me, why don't you post a 10 flip sequence that I will then attempt at my desk with a 1996 US Dime. As soon as you have prayed, and posted the results I will get, I will flip and post the results.

For the record, I hope you get it right. But I can only give my word that I will post the actual results.

What do you say?

I will create a 10 "Head & Tails" sequence using a random number generator, pray to the deity, and then post the results to this thread. However, in order for the test to be fair, you must promise "not to look." Okay? So, reply to this thread, promising "not to look." I will create the sequence and then post it online 10 minutes after I receive your promise. You then can perform the experiment, and post your results!

[Lothian]

I will ask the deity and get back to you. However, to be honest, the outlook seems kind of gloom at this point. To date none of my prayers to the deity have been answered, but I will definitively let you know if I hear from him/her/it!Try praying for something smaller.

[Starrman]

I will ask the deity and get back to you. However, to be honest, the outlook seems kind of gloom at this point. To date none of my prayers to the deity have been answered, but I will definitively let you know if I hear from him/her/it!

I asked my deity to make the world appear as if he/she/it didn't exist, and my prayer WAS answered! Are you having us on, Jehanne?

[Starrman]

I will create a 10 "Head & Tails" sequence using a random number generator, pray to the deity, and then post the results to this thread. However, in order for the test to be fair, you must promise "not to look." Okay? So, reply to this thread, promising "not to look." I will create the sequence and then post it online 10 minutes after I receive your promise. You then can perform the experiment, and post your results!

I promise not to look - send me a PM when I should start flipping so I don't see by mistake. I'll go away from this thread until I hear from you, then PM you the results...

[Jehanne]

Try praying for something smaller.

My prayers do not appear to be "size dependent," unless, I pray for something to happen that has already occurred. For some reason, those prayers always seem to work!

[Gr8wight]

My prayers do not appear to be "size dependent," unless, I pray for something to happen that has already occurred. For some reason, those prayers always seem to work!

Oops. That one was a dead giveaway, Jehanne. Did you get bored?

[Jehanne]

I promise not to look - send me a PM when I should start flipping so I don't see by mistake. I'll go away from this thread until I hear from you, then PM you the results...

Everyone else can pray too if they want to. "Oh, God, if you exist, please let the following sequence occur when Starrman flips!":

Heads, Tails, Heads, Tails, Tails, Heads, Tails, Tails, Heads, Heads

(The above was generated using Minitab's Bernoulli random number generator.)

PM to be sent after this post.

[William Smith]

(Audience holds breath.)

[Lothian]

My prayers do not appear to be "size dependent," unless, I pray for something to happen that has already occurred. For some reason, those prayers always seem to work!Pray to my god. He answers most of my prayers.

Please god do not let the sky fall in.
Please god let my home still be there tonight.
Please god let the shop be open when I call in tonight.

Try him out.

[Meffy]

You do not think that I would have established causality, in that, my prayers to my deity would have predicted how the event would have occurred?
If you were to succeed, how could you demonstrate that the devil did not intercept your prayers and interfere with physics in order to play a trick on you? Or super-powerful space aliens, or intelligent patterns in the Earth's magnetic field, or the Invisible Pink Unicorn (out of bitterness toward the upstart FSM)? Or -- this is admittedly far-fetched -- that even very strong odds against an occurrence do in fact sometimes get beaten just out of random coinkydink?

[Rasmus]

You do not think that I would have established causality, in that, my prayers to my deity would have predicted how the event would have occurred?

You would have predicted coinflips. If you had prayed to any deity isn't even controlled.

How about you generate a random list of 100 "Heads & Tails" outcomes say, through, a random number generator of your choosing prior to conducting the experiment? I then pray to my deity who will then intervene, causing the experiment to exact match the outcomes created by your random number generator. What then?

Then you still didn't prove how you predicted the numbers. Even if I believe every word you say (and after a prediction like that, I probably would), there would still been no information about what really happened.

There would only be an event - unknown to you - that you either predicted beforehand or described afterwards.

You might have "prayed" and received an answer. But maybe the answer didn't come from a deity - it might be your brain interpreting the data it generates or something else. Maybe it's a good fairy (invisible, of course) whispering to you, etc.

But if you can perform the way you describe, a great many people will be happy to find out just how you did it. And if a deity chose this path to reveal itself, further revelations are not entirely unlikely, either.

I did as you asked, btw.

I did go to a random number generator of my choice.
I got a number sequence: 100 digits, each of which is either "0" or "1".

Can you tell me that sequence?

Here's the details, to ensure that you can trust me.

The sequence looks like this:101101111110000100001111100010111000101001010 00000001011111101011000001000101111110001110001100 00011

I have, of course, used a different sequence than the one shown.

I have encoded my sequence using the md5-algorithm implemented in PHP like so:

<? echo md5 ("10110111111000010000111110001011100010100101000000 00101111110101100000100010111111000111000110000011"); ?>
a87652768afd946abe750373553e220d


The md5 number of the code I originally generated is 8e044ebfcadbe23f9446b588a3f9fc7a

(Don't pay any attention to all that stuff about md5 and php, etc. In short, what i have done is generated a code-number for my sequence. After you publish your prediction, I can publish my original numbers. Anyone can then run the algorithm to see that I didn't cheat and changed the numbers.

Theoretically, you have it easy here: You could try out as many sequences as you wish until you hit. I could still cheat, theoretically, by looking for a different sequence that would produce the same hash sequence. If you need further proof that I am not cheating, I will think something up.)

[Meffy]

Maybe it's a good fairy (invisible, of course) whispering to you, etc.
Oh, no -- it's pink unicorns all the way down.

[Jehanne]

If you were to succeed, how could you demonstrate that the devil did not intercept your prayers and interfere with physics in order to play a trick on you? Or super-powerful space aliens, or intelligent patterns in the Earth's magnetic field, or the Invisible Pink Unicorn (out of bitterness toward the upstart FSM)? Or -- this is admittedly far-fetched -- that even very strong odds against an occurrence do in fact sometimes get beaten just out of random coinkydink?

I agree with everything that you have stated!

[Dazed]

I think claims that are this lucid and straightforward should be tested expediently.

[Starrman]

Everyone else can pray too if they want to. "Oh, God, if you exist, please let the following sequence occur when Starrman flips!":

Heads, Tails, Heads, Tails, Tails, Heads, Tails, Tails, Heads, Heads

(The above was generated using Minitab's Bernoulli random number generator.)

PM to be sent after this post.

You actually did pretty well, 7 out of 10!

You predicted: Heads, Tails, Heads, Tails, Tails, Heads, Tails, Tails, Heads, Heads

Actual results:

1. Tails - wrong
2. Tails - right
3. Heads - right
4. Tails - right
5. Tails - right
6. Heads - right
7. Heads - wrong
8. Heads - wrong
9. Heads - right
10. Heads - right

70% - If you could sustain that over 100 trials you could be on your way to winning the million? Any stats exprerts care to see what the odds were that she would get 7 out of 10 by chance alone?

[Jehanne]

Everyone else can pray too if they want to. "Oh, God, if you exist, please let the following sequence occur when Starrman flips!":

Heads, Tails, Heads, Tails, Tails, Heads, Tails, Tails, Heads, Heads

(The above was generated using Minitab's Bernoulli random number generator.)

PM to be sent after this post.

And, here's the results of Starrman's flips:

OK - I'll type the results as I flip. I am flipping and letting the dime hit carpeted floor and settle:


1. Tails
2. Tails
3. Heads
4. Tails
5. Tails
6. Heads
7. Heads
8. Heads
9. Heads
10. Heads

Well, it appears that we lost on the first flip!

[Jehanne]

You actually did pretty well, 7 out of 10!

I believe that there is a 17% chance of that occurring randomly. I could be wrong, though... Not "statistically significant" by most measures.

[Dazed]

Jehanne, I would be very pleases and impressed if you could read 2 posts back at Rasmus' proposition. If you can successfully get the 100 number sequence he has encrypted, you would have the support of everyone here and would for sure get the million dollars.

If you cant get that sequence, because, as you said you can't pray for things that have already happened, I suggest you create an encrypted number sequence you predict rasmus will get, and post it here, then he repeats the process and posts his new sequences here, then you both post your pgp codes and see if they sequences match. This would constitute a successful preliminary test in the eyes of many.

[Jehanne]

Jehanne, I would be very pleases and impressed if you could read 2 posts back at Rasmus' proposition. If you can successfully get the 100 number sequence he has encrypted, you would have the support of everyone here and would for sure get the million dollars.

If you cant get that sequence, because, as you said you can't pray for things that have already happened, I suggest you create an encrypted number sequence you predict rasmus will get, and post it here, then he repeats the process and posts his new sequences here, then you both post your pgp codes and see if they sequences match. This would constitute a successful preliminary test in the eyes of many.

I will ask the deity and get back to you. If you do not hear from me, it is because I have not heard from him/her/it. So, it may be a really long time before I respond to Rasmus' challenge!

[Dazed]

Okay, good luck, I hope you manage to pull this off.

[Rasmus]

Jehanne, I would be very pleases and impressed if you could read 2 posts back at Rasmus' proposition. If you can successfully get the 100 number sequence he has encrypted, you would have the support of everyone here and would for sure get the million dollars.

If you cant get that sequence, because, as you said you can't pray for things that have already happened, I suggest you create an encrypted number sequence you predict rasmus will get, and post it here, then he repeats the process and posts his new sequences here, then you both post your pgp codes and see if they sequences match. This would constitute a successful preliminary test in the eyes of many.

Yes, I am not sure if I understood her correctly regarding the chain of events. If the prediction has to come first, we could go the simple route, too:

1. Jehanne makes a prediction in private and lets us know when she is finished.

2. I create a new random sequence as before, and post the code.

3. Jehanne posts the prediction.

4. I then post my number sequence.

Any other way will be fine, too. I just want to ensure that *I* cannot reasonably cheat and make it easy fore everybody else. (And I hear there are a few poor souls on the face of this planet that aren't running their own webservers to quickly do stuff like this ...)

[Meffy]

I agree with everything that you have stated!
Well, I wasn't stating but asking. Do you mean by this that you retract the claim that your protocol tests the existence of a deity, and reframe it as a simple attempt at prediction without implying any mechanism?

[Dazed]

That's even better too, in the case she doesn't have pgp.

[Rasmus]

That's even better too, in the case she doesn't have pgp.

Come to think of it, I don't either. This would be a good opportunity, though ...

[Jehanne]

Well, I wasn't stating but asking. Do you mean by this that you retract the claim that your protocol tests the existence of a deity, and reframe it as a simple attempt at prediction without implying any mechanism?

I retract.

[William Smith]

And, here's the results of Starrman's flips:

OK - I'll type the results as I flip. I am flipping and letting the dime hit carpeted floor and settle:


1. Tails
2. Tails
3. Heads
4. Tails
5. Tails
6. Heads
7. Heads
8. Heads
9. Heads
10. Heads

Well, it appears that we lost on the first flip!

Jehanne, I respect your aim for a 100% success rate. Any deity worth his/her/its salt would not settle for less.

If you, as you just did, would achieve a lower rate it might just be a tripping fairy, a bored Q or a drunken leprechaun sending the "signal".

However, to prove a "paranormal" power would mean only to perform significantly better than chance indicates. For example: If you would be able to attain 10 consective 7-out-of-ten-correct-results you will almost assuredly pass the Preliminary Test with flying colours.

I can't give you the odds on that, but if you ask a specific question, one of the mathsters will surely heed the call.

If it helps, check this stats table: http://www.automeasure.com/chance.html

[Dazed]

7 out if 10 isn't bad, but I'd like to see her do this mini test which falls in line with her original proposed protocol. I would be blown away if she gets 100/100, but I'll suspend my disbelief until that moment comes.

[Lothian]

7 out if 10 isn't bad, but I'd like to see her do this mini test which falls in line with her original proposed protocol. I would be blown away if she gets 100/100, but I'll suspend my disbelief until that moment comes.~I think Jehanne would too but s/he has made it very clear that s/he doesn’t have a helping god on hand (I will wager that Jehanne is an atheist) and the questions are hypothetical as opposed to immediately relevant.

[Axenos]

~I think Jehanne would too but s/he has made it very clear that s/he doesn’t have a helping god on hand (I will wager that Jehanne is an atheist) and the questions are hypothetical as opposed to immediately relevant.

Agreed. (Post 22 just phrased it differently)

[Bob Klase]

Every day I pray to god to let me live one more day. My prayer has been answered over 20,000 times. How much more proof do you need?

Sure, one day it might not be answered, but 20,000 to 1 seems pretty definitive to me.

[Dazed]

How about laying off the rude comments until she has done the experiment?

[Axenos]

How about laying off the rude comments until she has done the experiment?

Seriously.. you're seriously not taking this seriously are you?

[Dazed]

She's here claiming to be able to do something we all want to see, and willing to demonstrate it for us, so why not let her demonstrate it before calling her a liar?

[Axenos]

She's here claiming to be able to do something we all want to see, and willing to demonstrate it for us, so why not let her demonstrate it before calling her a liar?

Whatever you say... :)

Several things are possible:

A: I am missing your sarcasm or joke.

2: You are missing this threads point.

D: You believe it and I wish you luck in your future endeavours.

Ω: Xenu is behind all wars.

Have a good day.

Axe

[Lothian]

She's here claiming to be able to do something we all want to see, and willing to demonstrate it for us, so why not let her demonstrate it before calling her a liar?Perhaps you missed it but Jehanne said

I will ask the deity and get back to you. However, to be honest, the outlook seems kind of gloom at this point. To date none of my prayers to the deity have been answered, but I will definitively let you know if I hear from him/her/it!

I will ask the deity and get back to you. If you do not hear from me, it is because I have not heard from him/her/it. So, it may be a really long time before I respond to Rasmus' challenge!

Jehanne has never said s/he can do this. S/he only asked hypothetical questions, see the first post start with if.

I am not calling her a liar. If Jehanne was serious about this, I like you would be all for a test but Jeahanne has made clear that the God needed for the test does not appear willing.

[Dazed]

I'm new here, not sure how things work yet, but if Jehanne is serious why not just let her do this test? If she fails then you call ********.

[Dazed]

I guess I misread that bit then. If she's not serious then who cares. I thought we were witnessing an experiment.

[Jehanne]

~I think Jehanne would too but s/he has made it very clear that s/he doesn’t have a helping god on hand (I will wager that Jehanne is an atheist) and the questions are hypothetical as opposed to immediately relevant.

I am an atheist. But, I would be willing to believe if someone were to provide some concrete evidence. As others have point out, however, it would be hard to distinguish a "God signal" from Unicorns, the FSM, leprechauns, advanced alien intelligence, fairies, etc., etc.

[Lothian]

I'm new here, not sure how things work yet, but if Jehanne is serious why not just let her do this test? If she fails then you call ********.Welcome, I don't think Jehanne seriously expects to call 100 coins.

[Axenos]

I guess I misread that bit then. If she's not serious then who cares. I thought we were witnessing an experiment.

It was relatively apparent early on the direction and tone...

Sometimes it's hard to pick up...

Welcome to the forum!

[Lothian]

I am an atheist. But, I would be willing to believe if someone were to provide some concrete evidence. .Crying statues and Virgin Mary appearing on a slice of toast not enough for you then ?

Welcome by the way.

[Axenos]

The Virgin Mary On Toast = great punk band name...

[Hellbound]

The Virgin Mary On Toast = great punk band name...

Just shorten it to "Virgin Toast". HAs a nice ring, that.

[William Smith]

The Virgin Mary On Toast = great punk band name...

...and the first Split Single with "Bollocks Unlimited" shall be named "Batfeces Loco".

[William Smith]

Just shorten it to "Virgin Toast". HAs a nice ring, that.

Pink Taco should pick this up.

[Axenos]

:D Just shorten it to "Virgin Toast". HAs a nice ring, that.

Yes it do.

I find "Batfeces Loco" pretty darn funny as well.

[William Smith]

:D

Yes it do.

I find "Batfeces Loco" pretty darn funny as well.


ChaosEngineer: My guess would be that the shrink really belives he is batfeces loco.
...


Mrfreeze deserves the honour.

[Meffy]

I retract.
Good 'nuff. If you can do what you claim, I don't particularly care about the mechanism. Proving what that mechanism is is beyond the stated protocol's ability to test.

[William Smith]

Good 'nuff. If you can do what you claim, I don't particularly care about the mechanism. Proving what that mechanism is is beyond the stated protocol's ability to test.

You mean, the failure to recognize the principle of the incommensurability of material and psychical reality invalidates the challenge? :D :D :D

[Meffy]

No. What I said, if you read it correctly, is that grape Nehi soda is not a good stain remover.

[William Smith]

No. What I said, if you read it correctly, is that grape Nehi soda is not a good stain remover.

Whoopsie Daisy.

[Meffy]

I'm prepared to test this claim, long as I get the million dollars if I succeed. =^_^=

[William Smith]

I'm prepared to test this claim, long as I get the million dollars if I succeed. =^_^=

Spend it like Grits'n'Gravy: "I bought my mother a car; spent the rest on PCP."

[Flange Desire]

The claim would not take long to test. Probably 15 seconds per "coin toss," and 5 minutes to compare. So, 30 minutes, I suspect.

No, the claim process would take a while to organise,
and the test protocol design itself would take a while to sort out.
There is $US 1 million riding on it - it is no trivial pursuit.

[bduddy]

Hey, I want in on this! And my "god" will settle for 7 out of 10, too...
Let's see... what's my lucky number? Now in binary... hmm...
0000110111

"Oh God, if you exist, please, make at least 7 out of 10 (more is okay) of some forum guy's coin flips match this:
Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Heads, Heads, Tails, Heads, Heads, Heads
If you do, I might actually go to those dreadful "church" places once in a while... I promise, okay?"

God and lucky numbers... I can't lose! Million, here I come! :D
Anyone want to test this?

P.S.: Hi everyone! I've been lurking for a couple weeks, but this is my first post! :)

[Flange Desire]

Welcome to the forum dbuddy!
My crystal ball says you will probably enjoy posting even more than lurking.

[bduddy]

Welcome to the forum dbuddy!
My crystal ball says you will probably enjoy posting even more than lurking.
Oh dear, another person misspelled my name... Clearly, my god told you to. That's the only explaination for the fact that almost everyone does at first... ;) And WHOMG! My crystal ball did as well. Since we both got the same results, we're right!

[AgingYoung]

Hey,...

P.S.: Hi everyone! I've been lurking for a couple weeks, but this is my first post! :)

bduddy
New Blood

Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 4


I'll believe anything I'm told. You don't believe me? Tell me something else.

Gene

my crystal balls tell me something's not right here.

[rjh01]

If you want to post but not let people accidentally see what you have done you can use spoiler tags put the words spoiler and /spoiler in [] around the text like this
text

[spoil er] this did not work because of the space in the spoiler [/spoiler]

This would be good to put what God told you in the spoiler then when the coin tosses have happened the person can look at what God has said.

[William Smith]

Hey, I want in on this! And my "god" will settle for 7 out of 10, too...
Let's see... what's my lucky number? Now in binary... hmm...
0000110111

"Oh God, if you exist, please, make at least 7 out of 10 (more is okay) of some forum guy's coin flips match this:
Tails, Tails, Tails, Tails, Heads, Heads, Tails, Heads, Heads, Heads
If you do, I might actually go to those dreadful "church" places once in a while... I promise, okay?"

God and lucky numbers... I can't lose! Million, here I come! :D
Anyone want to test this?

P.S.: Hi everyone! I've been lurking for a couple weeks, but this is my first post! :)

I used an older German 5 DM coin, with Martin Luther's Head and the Bundesadler's tail. The results:

H, T, H, T, H, H, T, H, T, H. Or: 1010110101.

You got 7 out of 10 right. Lousy god I say. Does this ratio apply to all his/her/its creation? Probably some assmunch who had too many mushrooms and decided he could perform miracles.
Hey, [Expletive Deleted], miracle this. Now guess how many fingers I held up while saying this.

[Lothian]

Now guess how many fingers I held up while saying this.Eleven ?

[William Smith]

(Gasp.)
Correct!

[Ceritus]

Bored So I predict if Meffy flips a coin with a heads and a tails 20 times, the first 20 flips will be.

H T T H H H T H T T H H H H T H H H T T

Left being first right being last. I trust ya Meffy :)

[Gr8wight]

I'll believe anything I'm told. You don't believe me? Tell me something else.

Gene

my crystal balls tell me something's not right here.

You have crystal balls? Do you have to walk daintily?

[Meffy]

Hi, bduddy, and welcome. *wave*

my crystal balls tell me something's not right here.
Did your crystal balls tell you to look up bduddy's post history and see if bduddy posted three more after the initial post? Because that's what happened. Go ahead, try -- it'll take you all of ten seconds to demonstrate that your crystal balls are in fact loose marbles.

[Meffy]

Bored So I predict if Meffy flips a coin with a heads and a tails 20 times, the first 20 flips will be.

H T T H H H T H T T H H H H T H H H T T

Left being first right being last. I trust ya Meffy :)
But I haven't a coin! How about leftover Chanukkah gelt? It's foil-covered chocolate, not very good for flipping.

[Meffy]

Belgian 1-Euro piece, 2000, chocolate.

H H T T H T H H T T H T T T T H H T T T N*
_______________
* H - heads, T - tails, N - narfle

[Ceritus]

what the heck is a narfle!

[Ririon]

what the heck is a narfle!
When you get really bored and a piece of Belgian chocolate is flipping around in front of your face, strange things can happen, I guess... :D

[TjW]

No. What I said, if you read it correctly, is that grape Nehi soda is not a good stain remover.
We don't need a good stain remover anyway.
What we need is something that removes BAD stains.

[soulhill]

This test would not prove that God exists, but it sounds like a reasonable challenge. However, it seems that if you are going to pray to a deity who is willing to provide you with prescient information, why not have him or her or it list the next 100 lottery numbers from one of the nation's many mega lotteries?

The cash rewards for the charity would be fantastic and I can tell you that, though there would be not direct evidence of your deity, I would seriously consider whatever relgion you might choose to pedal.

[William Smith]

This test would not prove that God exists, but it sounds like a reasonable challenge. However, it seems that if you are going to pray to a deity who is willing to provide you with prescient information, why not have him or her or it list the next 100 lottery numbers from one of the nation's many mega lotteries?

The cash rewards for the charity would be fantastic and I can tell you that, though there would be not direct evidence of your deity, I would seriously consider whatever relgion you might choose to pedal.

Swing and a miss. ;)

[HeavyAaron]

Every day I pray to god to let me live one more day. My prayer has been answered over 20,000 times. How much more proof do you need?

Sure, one day it might not be answered, but 20,000 to 1 seems pretty definitive to me.

"Oh God. Please don't let me die today! Tomorrow would be SO much better!" - The Spathi prayer, recited every morning upon waking up.

Aaron

[PreciousD]

I will ask the deity and get back to you. However, to be honest, the outlook seems kind of gloom at this point. To date none of my prayers to the deity have been answered, but I will definitively let you know if I hear from him/her/it!

But remember, God (or your "deity") answers all prayers and sometimes the answer is, "No." :D

[PreciousD]

I used an older German 5 DM coin, with Martin Luther's Head and the Bundesadler's tail. The results:



I'm sorry, but my Catholic god refuses to participate in any challenge involving a coin with Martin Luther's head.:)

[Hishighness]

I have a way to prove to you whether or not there is a god and afterlife, and it's called a revolver. :D