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SPQR
14th August 2006, 12:01 PM
What if this was the headline in tommorrow's paper?

Further reading of the article reveals that all possibilty of equipment malfunction has been ruled out; this is the real thing. The article also reveals that while the signal is genuine, the possibilty of two-way communication is slim.

So, how do you think such a discovery would change our civilization, if at all? Would it force humanity into the realization that we are all the same species and therefore have more in common than not, plunge the world into mass hysteria, or something in between?

Discuss.

gfunkusarelius
14th August 2006, 12:09 PM
depends on what the message was and if we could interpret it. i suspect that there would be a lot of debate as to whether it was really a communication at all.

seems to me, anyway, that if we recieved it with the way we are sending and recieving communications right now, wouldnt the transmission have to be so old that it would likely be from a long dead civilization?

Overman
14th August 2006, 12:12 PM
Carl Sagan's book Contact covers this idea pretty good....he was a bit of an optimist...but so am I!

NobbyNobbs
14th August 2006, 12:18 PM
depends on what the message was and if we could interpret it. i suspect that there would be a lot of debate as to whether it was really a communication at all.

seems to me, anyway, that if we recieved it with the way we are sending and recieving communications right now, wouldnt the transmission have to be so old that it would likely be from a long dead civilization?


Keeping within the spirit of the OP, let's assume that the transmission was something that had to be from an intelligent origin (a series of prime numbers, or pi to a million digits, etc). Let's also assume that it's from a star within 50-100 light-years, so that 2-way communication is difficult, but it's still very likely the civilization is currently up and running.

Personally, it may have a philosophical impact on those who take the time to think about it, but I don't think the practicalities of everyday life would be affected much, if at all.

I'm curious about the effect it would have on religion.

SPQR
14th August 2006, 12:25 PM
depends on what the message was and if we could interpret it. i suspect that there would be a lot of debate as to whether it was really a communication at all.

seems to me, anyway, that if we recieved it with the way we are sending and recieving communications right now, wouldnt the transmission have to be so old that it would likely be from a long dead civilization?

It wouldn't necessarily have to be a direct attempt at communication. Radio signals are leaking off Earth all the time. If such a discovery were made, it would probably be the remnants of some alien-to-alien communication.

Kaarjuus
14th August 2006, 12:41 PM
I'm curious about the effect it would have on religion.

Other than possibly starting some new ones, probably none at all.

zooloo
14th August 2006, 12:48 PM
I'm curious about the effect it would have on religion.

It would have the same effect of any other fact.

Either the book of choice does mention it after-all or they will deny the fact exists.

Business as usual :D

MilwaukeeMike
14th August 2006, 12:58 PM
What if this was the headline in tommorrow's paper?

Further reading of the article reveals that all possibilty of equipment malfunction has been ruled out; this is the real thing. The article also reveals that while the signal is genuine, the possibilty of two-way communication is slim.

So, how do you think such a discovery would change our civilization, if at all? Would it force humanity into the realization that we are all the same species and therefore have more in common than not, plunge the world into mass hysteria, or something in between?

Discuss.


I don't think civilization would change at all because we would most likely never know of it. (I think there was an X-Files :cool: episode that delt with this) And even if we did know about it, there are so many religious wack jobs out there that it would be refuted to the point of a non issue. (By religious wack jobs I am referring to people that are extremely religious like the crazy women they had on Fox News a few months ago)

Almo
14th August 2006, 01:58 PM
The fundies of all types will just try to convert the aliens. That would be a sad sight to see.

StewartP
14th August 2006, 02:02 PM
Personally, my jaw would hit the floor and I would spend a sleepless night, because this would shake some of my beliefs to the core.
I am atheist. But I am also sure we are all alone. Every UFO, every flakey almond eyed alien picture, every abducted by aliens and anally probed story, every x-files episode has had me smirking and feeling superior. If it turned out that all these whack-jobs might have actually had a point I'd find that pretty humbling and I'd have to have a good long think.

Starthinker
14th August 2006, 02:08 PM
Personally, my jaw would hit the floor and I would spend a sleepless night, because this would shake some of my beliefs to the core.
I am atheist. But I am also sure we are all alone. Every UFO, every flakey almond eyed alien picture, every abducted by aliens and anally probed story, every x-files episode has had me smirking and feeling superior. If it turned out that all these whack-jobs might have actually had a point I'd find that pretty humbling and I'd have to have a good long think.

Oh, all those things would still be bunk, as the OP says, this would be a REAL signal.

I don't think that we are alone, there is definately life out there, but the chances of any being close enough to communicate with (let alone visit us) are so astronomical that it's a safe bet that it will never happen.

MilwaukeeMike
14th August 2006, 02:26 PM
Oh, all those things would still be bunk, as the OP says, this would be a REAL signal.

I don't think that we are alone, there is definately life out there, but the chances of any being close enough to communicate with (let alone visit us) are so astronomical that it's a safe bet that it will never happen.

I think you need to watch the documentary on string theory. Traveling great distances could one day become a reality if this theory holds any merit. Check out the web site for more information or watch the NOVA episode about it.

senorpogo
14th August 2006, 02:46 PM
I'm sure there would be conspiracy theories galore. Something like, the government created this signal in hopes to pacify the population and unite them under a one-world government.

I'd imagine a sizable group of fundies would deny the possibility too. The bible says that God created Adam, but nowhere mentions Spock.

Science minded people would use this to encourage more funding for scientific research. Naysayers would point out that, with communication and travel nearly impossible, what's the point? Our money would be spent better other ways.

The news networks would run with the story for three or four days with countless talking heads and constant speculation. Presidents and prime ministers would give speeches about how important this discovery is. Then after a few weeks, most people would forget about it.

It's sad, but that's kind of how I see it. It would be a big deal for a while, but then it would be quickly forgot. It would not usher in a new age of unity for humankind.

Almo
14th August 2006, 03:10 PM
Unity would come from an alien missile. Join to face the alien menace or die. But if they can fling stuff this far, we'd lose anyway.

Starthinker
14th August 2006, 03:17 PM
I think you need to watch the documentary on string theory. Traveling great distances could one day become a reality if this theory holds any merit. Check out the web site for more information or watch the NOVA episode about it.

I have, and I think the sun will explode before it happens.

Badly Shaved Monkey
14th August 2006, 03:29 PM
What if this was the headline in tommorrow's paper?

Further reading of the article reveals that all possibilty of equipment malfunction has been ruled out; this is the real thing. The article also reveals that while the signal is genuine, the possibilty of two-way communication is slim.

So, how do you think such a discovery would change our civilization, if at all? Would it force humanity into the realization that we are all the same species and therefore have more in common than not, plunge the world into mass hysteria, or something in between?

Discuss.

Surely it would depend on the message.

If they said, "Hey guys, sorry 'bout stickin' you with George W. We was jus' messin' with yo' heads", we'd invite them round and have a few beers while we sorted out the problems of the galactic arm.

TragicMonkey
14th August 2006, 03:32 PM
It would be especially weird if the message was addressed to "our good friends, the dinosaurs".

Badly Shaved Monkey
14th August 2006, 03:37 PM
Personally, my jaw would hit the floor and I would spend a sleepless night, because this would shake some of my beliefs to the core.
I am atheist. But I am also sure we are all alone. Every UFO, every flakey almond eyed alien picture, every abducted by aliens and anally probed story, every x-files episode has had me smirking and feeling superior. If it turned out that all these whack-jobs might have actually had a point I'd find that pretty humbling and I'd have to have a good long think.

Hey dude, finally cut the old woman out of the picture?

http://www.artic.edu/artaccess/AA_Modern/pages/MOD_5_lg.shtml

SPQR
14th August 2006, 08:16 PM
It would be especially weird if the message was addressed to "our good friends, the dinosaurs".

"Sorry about that asteroid. Hope it didn't cause too much of a mess."

Hamradioguy
14th August 2006, 08:38 PM
I'm curious about the effect it would have on religion.

This was discussed in some sceince book I read a very long time ago (like mid 1950s- long before SETI). Several of those asked stated that it would have a devestating effect on religion but I recall one preacher who said something to the effect of "Well of course God is omnipotent, so I am sure they already know about Jesus. But if they don't then we certainly would have to spread the word". AKKKKK! Well, the difficulty of any two way communication over probably thousands of light years would, thankfully, resolve THAT issue.

UserGoogol
14th August 2006, 09:06 PM
Personally, my jaw would hit the floor and I would spend a sleepless night, because this would shake some of my beliefs to the core.
I am atheist. But I am also sure we are all alone. Every UFO, every flakey almond eyed alien picture, every abducted by aliens and anally probed story, every x-files episode has had me smirking and feeling superior. If it turned out that all these whack-jobs might have actually had a point I'd find that pretty humbling and I'd have to have a good long think.

Just because pretty much all evidence of alien life on Earth has been rather flawed does not mean that there cannot be alien life out there. I think the Drake equation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation) (essentially, a more rigorous way of saying "there's so many stars out there, that the odds are that we're not the only one") is a pretty good argument for there being extraterrestrial life somewhere. Just not here.

I really don't think that discovering extraterrestrial life should really vindicate the UFO guys that much. Yes, I suppose the UFO guys do have a point that aliens probably exist, but that's such a minor part of their argument that it's not a big deal. "Extraterrestrial life exists somewhere" is to UFO nuts as "Government leaders are jerks" is to Conspiracy Theory nuts, as I see it.

Roboramma
14th August 2006, 09:24 PM
I think the Drake equation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation) (essentially, a more rigorous way of saying "there's so many stars out there, that the odds are that we're not the only one") is a pretty good argument for there being extraterrestrial life somewhere. Just not here.

The problem with the Drake equation as an argument for the existence of extraterrestrial intelligent life is that the terms are so ambigous. There are a few terms in it that we know pretty well. Most of the others are just pure guesswork. And until that changes, the drake equation can't really tell us anything.

Anyway, back to the OP, it's hard to guess at the repercussions of such an announcement on a global scale. Would religion wane or grow? Certainly new cults would form. A lot of it depends on the content of the message.

For myself, I'd feel immense curiosity, as I think a great many others would, and there would probably be a lot of people trying to find out more about these strange distant creatures, so unlike us, yet with who we share an uncommon bond. I hope our understanding of the universe, and ourselves, would grow in the process.

Beady
15th August 2006, 04:16 AM
The problem with the Drake equation as an argument for the existence of extraterrestrial intelligent life is that the terms are so ambigous. There are a few terms in it that we know pretty well. Most of the others are just pure guesswork. And until that changes, the drake equation can't really tell us anything.

One thing that most people ignore is that the DE is all multiplication. If even one of the factors should be "0," then there's no point in worrying about any of the others.


Would religion wane or grow? Certainly new cults would form.


I remember a SF story where the Pope decides that the Bible pertains only to Earth, and that God manifests on other worlds as necessary to meet local conditions. It's a no-brainer about new cults, though. Cults form over just about anything; wouldn't surprise me to see someone proclaiming the alien civilization as the New Eden, or whatever.

For myself, I'd feel immense curiosity, as I think a great many others would...

Yes, but I still have to feed, clothe and house myself. The lawn will still need mowing, I'll still want to play with the grandchildren, and so on. There are plenty of people on this planet whose daily lives hold needs that are greater and more immediate than mine, and they will be able to spend even less time involved with the Momentous News than will I. I think, for most people, life will go on pretty much as always, and the Momentous News will soon lose its momentousness, and then will finally cease to be news.

Dancing David
15th August 2006, 05:33 AM
depends on what the message was and if we could interpret it.


D-R-I-N-K-M-O-R-E-O-V-A-L-T-I-N-E

grayman
15th August 2006, 06:57 AM
D-R-I-N-K-M-O-R-E-O-V-A-L-T-I-N-E

You'll shoot your eye out, kid.

Stitch
15th August 2006, 07:29 AM
Personally, my jaw would hit the floor and I would spend a sleepless night, because this would shake some of my beliefs to the core.
I am atheist. But I am also sure we are all alone. Every UFO, every flakey almond eyed alien picture, every abducted by aliens and anally probed story, every x-files episode has had me smirking and feeling superior. If it turned out that all these whack-jobs might have actually had a point I'd find that pretty humbling and I'd have to have a good long think.

I'm not inclined to believe that we have already been visited by life from another planet, but I'd be surprised if there isn't life of some form or another other there somewhere. The ID and Creationist crews claim the probabilities of spotaneous life are so huge as to be beyond belief and yet here we are. I see no reason why, in amongst all the other millions of stars out there, there isn't at least 1 more than can support some form of life.

Stitch
15th August 2006, 07:31 AM
I'm sure there would be conspiracy theories galore. Something like, the government created this signal in hopes to pacify the population and unite them under a one-world government

As there are already consipracy theories claiming we have already had contact and the government are covering it up to stop mass panic? :D

Alphaba
15th August 2006, 08:22 AM
SPQR: "Radio Signal From Alien Civilization Discovered. snip. Discuss."

A scenario with potentially interesting consequences would be a signal which self-evident, most likely interpretation/explanation of the source/origin is a giant, inordinately powerful and sophisticated E.T. RADAR.

Ryan O'Dine
15th August 2006, 08:31 AM
I’ve asked this question (alien life) of both a devout Christian and a devout Jew. Both denied it could exist. I forget the exact reasoning, but something in Genesis rules it out. Of course, Genesis also rules out evolution. Clearly, whatever their reaction, it would have to be dealt with.

In general, I think there would be a greater impact than many posters have suggested. I think both popular culture and potentially the art world would be greatly influenced. NASA might wake from its long pathetic slumber and take a stab at getting serious again. Perhaps the respectability of the scientific endeavor in general would get a shot in the arm by association. This might materialize as greater funding for various scientific arenas from exobiology to linguistics to aerospace engineering. No doubt SDI and other military considerations would be revived in a whole new context, which drags us into the political realm.

Remember, after 9/11 most people went about their lives business-as-usual, but that doesn’t mean the world stayed the same.

jmercer
15th August 2006, 08:53 AM
I’ve asked this question (alien life) of both a devout Christian and a devout Jew. Both denied it could exist. I forget the exact reasoning, but something in Genesis rules it out. Of course, Genesis also rules out evolution. Clearly, whatever their reaction, it would have to be dealt with.



I assume by "devout Christian", you're speaking of a fundamentalist-type... because the Catholic Church has been discussing this for quite some time now. :)

http://www.catholic.org/international/international_story.php?id=17460

Starthinker
15th August 2006, 08:56 AM
Let's just make the announcement and see what happens.

RenaissanceBiker
15th August 2006, 09:22 AM
I think Douglas Adams already calculated that the population of the Universe is zero.

If we did get a signal, humanity's response would depend on the nature of the signal.

Undirected Signals (Prime Numbers) - Most people don't know what prime numbers are and would pretty much go on with their lives, taking cues from their leaders about what to think and how to behave. Leaders aren't always rational or predictable so responses from different groups will vary. It won't be apparent that our presence is known, just that someone else is announcing their presence. There will be a public debate about whether we should respond.

Intercepted Signals - Similar to above, except it appears that our presence is not known. We will probably decide to study them before announcing our presence. It would be nice to know if we are dealing with hot green alien babes or a Klingon empire.

Directed Freindly Signals - These will be received with some skeptism. "You say you are a race of hot green alien babes, but how do I know you aren't a Klingon?" This one will cause the most confusion and speculation. The perception will be that if they contact us first, they have superior technology, they have taken the time to study us, and have a distinct advantage.

Directed Unfreindly Signal - We will either have something like the Vogon Destructor Fleet or the Independence Day aliens giving us very little time to respond. I'll either head for the nearest liquor store or get my guns, depending on my mood at the time.

Cuddles
15th August 2006, 09:34 AM
Hopefully the aliens are a little more intelligent than us when it comes to sending messages. http://www.newscientistspace.com/article/dn7128.html

geni
15th August 2006, 09:54 AM
It wouldn't necessarily have to be a direct attempt at communication. Radio signals are leaking off Earth all the time. If such a discovery were made, it would probably be the remnants of some alien-to-alien communication.

With our present level of technology and scanning that would be very unlikely.

Ryan O'Dine
15th August 2006, 09:56 AM
I assume by "devout Christian", you're speaking of a fundamentalist-type... because the Catholic Church has been discussing this for quite some time now. :)

http://www.catholic.org/international/international_story.php?id=17460

Actually, she was a Protestant, don’t know the denomination. She trained as a youth minister, and made sure everyone around knew she was a Christian. I hope this qualifies as “devout.”

From the article...
Brother Consolmagno said he tried to show in the booklet that "the church is not afraid of science" and that Catholics, too, should be unafraid and confident in confronting all types of speculation, no matter how "far out" and spacey it may be.
Sounds similar to what the Dalai Lama has said in the past. The Catholic Church and Tibetan Buddhism both give science a lot of leeway. Good on them!

Interesting article, btw.

Beady
15th August 2006, 10:07 AM
I’ve asked this question (alien life) of both a devout Christian and a devout Jew. Both denied it could exist. I forget the exact reasoning, but something in Genesis rules it out.

Ask them about John 10:16: "And other sheep I have, which are not of this fold: them also I must bring, and they shall hear my voice; and there shall be one fold, and one shepherd."

They'll probably say it refers to the Gentiles, or such, but there's nothing in the passage, or the context, that limits the meaning in any way.

westphalia
15th August 2006, 03:06 PM
Ask them about John 10:16: "And other sheep I have, which are not of this fold: them also I must bring, and they shall hear my voice; and there shall be one fold, and one shepherd."

EXCELLENT post. Precisely the verse in John I was thinking about when I read the OP. My father was a minister, and we discussed the possibility of alien contact a lot, since we both liked horror and sci-fi pictures. My father's take on it was that God would presumably have revealed His presence to other civilizations in His own way. Whatever.

As regards modern religion, I think the planet would go nuts. Not nuts in the sense of "my whole religion is debased, and thus my life is meaningless." I mean nuts in the sense that religious belief and dogma would become even more entrenched and defensive - folks won't abandon their beliefs based on one signal from outside our planet. I believe they'll retrench and hang on for dear life to even the most traditional and inflexible of their dogmas.

If we think the Mohammedans are crazy now, wait until a postcard from ET shows up.

Beady
15th August 2006, 04:16 PM
If we think the Mohammedans are crazy now, wait until a postcard from ET shows up.

Now, hold on. The average Muslim isn't any more crazy than the average Lutheran or Catholic. In fact, Islam is very flexible and accomodating when it comes to science and learning; it's certainly more-so than a lot of Christian denominations. Don't forget, Islamic schaolars are credited with preserving a considerable amount of knowledge during Europe's Dark Ages (even if they didn't preserve as much as they're credited for, they preserved enough to get the reputation).

Jimbo07
15th August 2006, 05:00 PM
I think, for most people, life will go on pretty much as always, and the Momentous News will soon lose its momentousness, and then will finally cease to be news.

As has happened with every other piece of momentous news in history. Some people won't even care.

Mosquito
16th August 2006, 02:17 AM
One thing that most people ignore is that the DE is all multiplication. If even one of the factors should be "0," then there's no point in worrying about any of the others.

One thing that at least one person ignored is that the DE is all multiplication. If even one of the factors should be "0," then there's nobody around to worry about any of the others. :p

Mosquito - Pretty certain that no factor in DE is zero.

Oleron
16th August 2006, 02:40 AM
If the signal was received by a government dept the inevitable response would be:

"Thank you for waiting. Your call is important to us and will be answered by one of our scientists as soon as possible...."

Beady
16th August 2006, 02:48 AM
One thing that at least one person ignored is that the DE is all multiplication. If even one of the factors should be "0," then there's nobody around to worry about any of the others. :p

Mosquito - Pretty certain that no factor in DE is zero.

You're not quite as clever as you think.

It depends on whether you are using the Drake Equation to argue whether there is life on any planet, or on any other planet. Since life on Earth is known to exist, the first argument is senseless and there is no purpose for the equation to exist; the question therefore is whether life exists anywhere else. Therefore, I don't consider it proper to include Earth in the equation. Even if you include Earth, most of the DE's variables are expressed as percentages, in which case Earth is represented by a number indistinguishable from "0".

Which is, in itself, indistinguishable from the grade you would have gotten from an astronomy professor for that little attempt.

ntech
16th August 2006, 04:21 AM
Carl Sagan said about the thought that there wasn’t of life out there “With all that vastness out there, it would be an awful waste of space”.

Given the incredible size of the universe it would be nearly impossible for life not to exist somewhere, and more likely that it does exist in many places. Since the invention of the radio with its first transmissions of a type of telegraph then later sound in the early 1900s we have been transmitting our presence. After over 100 years our signals have only reached a miniscule area of our galaxy.

Given this tiny penetration into space we have to consider that if signals did in fact reach at least a couple of planets with intelligent life, those planets would have to be at our progress level or even more advanced. Even then, they too would have to be listening and even more so, precisely. They could be still be at an age similar to ours was in the 1400s or any other age before technology. In the 4 million plus years of human existence we have only been able to transmit our presence for just over 100. We have been listening for just decades.

If we consider that the first other planet out there with intelligent life may be 500 or even 1000 light years away, we would not pick up their signal for another 500 to 1000 years; minus the decades we have been listening. By the time that signal reached them, they were able to send a directed message and that return message reached earth 1000 to 2000 years would have gone by on earth. My fear is that by the time such a message reached earth it is totally possible that it would have reached our planet in a future in which the earth is void of life because we waged a massive nuclear war or burned fossil fuels to the point of causing a runaway greenhouse effect; leaving a charred skeleton of our civilization.

If we are smart enough to stop those currently on track to destroy our planet we will most likely eventually pick up the transmissions of some planet and perhaps they would pick up ours. I cringe at the thought that when they decipher our language and listen to and view our transmissions in the form of radio and television they may very well consider us ignorant. I wonder what they would think of a people whose majority believed in a magical being in the sky, just as in a more primitive time we worshiped the sun. They would see the wars we waged. They may even watch as our planet shutters and dies from our own hands before they could ever respond.

Kaarjuus
16th August 2006, 04:42 AM
Given the incredible size of the universe it would be nearly impossible for life not to exist somewhere, and more likely that it does exist in many places.


Those claims are not supported by evidence, unfortunately. The fact that we exist is certainly proof that life exists somewhere in the universe, but says nothing about the likelihood of life existing elsewhere than Earth.


Given this tiny penetration into space we have to consider that if signals did in fact reach at least a couple of planets with intelligent life, those planets would have to be at our progress level or even more advanced.


Consider our nearest star other than the Sun, Alpha Centauri. It's more than 4 lightyears away. Calculate the strength of the radio signal needed for our signals to reach it or somebody's signal reaching us. Consider how small is the radio signal of giant pulsars.

I am convinced SETI will not yield any positive results. It's certainly sad, though.

Beady
16th August 2006, 04:54 AM
Carl Sagan said about the thought that there wasn’t of life out there “With all that vastness out there, it would be an awful waste of space”.

Sagan would also be the first to admit that this is a case of Special Pleading (see his "Baloney Detection Kit (http://www4.tpgi.com.au/users/tps-seti/baloney.html)").

Citing the fact that "space is big, really big," to quote(?) Douglas Adams, is deceptive and, oddly, is a false argument based on the statistics of small numbers. Someone just pointed out in another thread ("Was there enough time in the 'family tree' of evolution to create the diversity...." ) that it not only took billions of years, but several billion times a billion simultaneous evolutionary experiments for life to take hold here on Earth. It's therefore not enough to find a planet that is suitable for evolutionary experiments, you have to find one that can support the necessary volume of experiments.

Near as I can tell, that requires a statistical sample of suitable planets far in excess of the number of necessary experiments before life becomes inevitable. Not only that, a like number is required for each seperate success you wish to postulate. It's an open question whether the universe contains enough planets.

ntech
16th August 2006, 06:56 AM
Those claims are not supported by evidence, unfortunately. The fact that we exist is certainly proof that life exists somewhere in the universe, but says nothing about the likelihood of life existing elsewhere than Earth.
Correct, however the request was for discussion. The fact that physics remains the same throughout the universe and its sheer size; in my personal view it would be likely that life exists abundantly although at vast distances. It is just my opinion for the purpose of discussion.
Consider our nearest star other than the Sun, Alpha Centauri. It's more than 4 lightyears away. Calculate the strength of the radio signal needed for our signals to reach it or somebody's signal reaching us. Consider how small is the radio signal of giant pulsars.
True there are stars at a distance close enough for a possible signal since we have been listening but there are not enough for the odds to be in our favor. The radio signals powerful enough to emit from earth require no more power to go the distance. If a planet were one million light years away, the transmission will reach it in one million years.

ntech
16th August 2006, 07:06 AM
Someone just pointed out in another thread ("Was there enough time in the 'family tree' of evolution to create the diversity...." ) that it not only took billions of years, but several billion times a billion simultaneous evolutionary experiments for life to take hold here on Earth. It's therefore not enough to find a planet that is suitable for evolutionary experiments, you have to find one that can support the necessary volume of experiments.
But it happened here and physics being the same, in my opinion it can happen in many places. Then given the sheer number of stars it might have. Richard Dawkins writes about how easy it would be for life to take hold. Given that evolution does follow endless mutations I would think that it increases the likelihood that one of those mutations given enough time might be intelligent.

Kaarjuus
16th August 2006, 07:27 AM
The radio signals powerful enough to emit from earth require no more power to go the distance. If a planet were one million light years away, the transmission will reach it in one million years.

So radio signal strength does not decrease inversely as the square of the distance?

Cuddles
16th August 2006, 07:44 AM
But it happened here and physics being the same, in my opinion it can happen in many places. Then given the sheer number of stars it might have. Richard Dawkins writes about how easy it would be for life to take hold. Given that evolution does follow endless mutations I would think that it increases the likelihood that one of those mutations given enough time might be intelligent.

I'm with this view. It seems very unlikely that life would only appear in one place in the entire universe. I very much doubt we will ever detect any aliens though. There are so many stars (and probably planets) that it would take forever to search them all, so unless aliens are actively trying to broadcast their presence we will never find them. And this is assuming interstellar travel is one day possible.

This is very much only my belief though. Trying to prove any of this mathematically without any evidence at all is completely pointless.

ntech
16th August 2006, 08:41 AM
So radio signal strength does not decrease inversely as the square of the distance?

You are correct, it does.

Our technological advancements have given us the ability to receive faint signals from great distances. So far they have been natural but some are weak and SETI fully expects to pick up signals from great distances. I'm not sure what the limit would be but it must be millions if not hundreds of millions of light years away. It would be interesting to know the limit but it does leave plenty of possible hits.

ntech
16th August 2006, 08:50 AM
There are so many stars (and probably planets) that it would take forever to search them all, so unless aliens are actively trying to broadcast their presence we will never find them.
It has been difficult for SETI because if I remember correctly, the old equipment they used scanned a piece of the sky no more that what you could see through the head of a pin. I read that they were rolling out new equipment able to look at a wider band and can scan much more space simultaneously. I wish them luck. No planet has to broadcast their presence intentionally because just as our radio and TV signals have been transmitting into space for almost 100 years so would theirs if they simply transmitted for similar reasons.

Cuddles
16th August 2006, 08:58 AM
It has been difficult for SETI because if I remember correctly, the old equipment they used scanned a piece of the sky no more that what you could see through the head of a pin. I read that they were rolling out new equipment able to look at a wider band and can scan much more space simultaneously. I wish them luck. No planet has to broadcast their presence intentionally because just as our radio and TV signals have been transmitting into space for almost 100 years so would theirs if they simply transmitted for similar reasons.

SETI is specifically looking for regular, repeating signals, so random TV shows would be unlikely to be detected. They are also broadcast over a wide area and so will be much weaker than a singnal beamed in one direction, even if using the same power. Also, more and more signals are highly directional, usually towards satelites, or carried in cables. There is a theory that noise will only be broadcast for a very short time in a planet's history before better technology, as we are developing now, means no more signals are broadcast unintentionally.

On the other hand I have SETI@home on my computer and I really do hope we find something, even though I think it's highly unlikely.

ntech
16th August 2006, 09:39 AM
On the other hand I have SETI@home on my computer and I really do hope we find something, even though I think it's highly unlikely.

me too, although I am more optimistic about eventual success.

Beady
16th August 2006, 10:29 AM
It seems very unlikely that life would only appear in one place in the entire universe.

Special pleading. See Sagan's "Baloney Detection Kit."

ntech
16th August 2006, 10:48 AM
Special pleading. See Sagan's "Baloney Detection Kit."
Beady, you are correct and there is no way to say for certain what the truth is. We just don't know. I require extraordinary proof for any extraordinary claim. This in no way stops anyone from having a reasoned opinion on the subject. Carl Sagan was one of the most skeptical people on the planet but in the Cosmos series he dedicates much if not all of one of the episodes to thinking about this possibility. He makes clear that he takes no liberty to say for certain but outlines numerous reasons why he considers it to be entirely possible. Considering the possibilities has many times in history enabled many to discover things that have now become common knowledge. What would be wrong would be insisting it to be true without a shred of evidence to back it up. Sort of like creationists who insist that evolution is false and want to force our children to learn bogus science so it will make them feel better.

Cuddles
16th August 2006, 10:53 AM
Special pleading. See Sagan's "Baloney Detection Kit."

Notice I said "This is very much only my belief though."

I would say this is the exact opposite of special pleading. I assume that there is nothing special about Earth and that no special powers are needed.

Beady
16th August 2006, 02:36 PM
He makes clear that he takes no liberty to say for certain but outlines numerous reasons why he considers it to be entirely possible.

He also makes no bones about how he considers it highly unlikely, should there be ET life, that there has ever been or will ever be contact.

Personally, I put the odds of other life, whether intelligent or not, at 50-50. Either it's there, or it's not. In the meantime, it's all speculation with no evidence either way.

Beady
16th August 2006, 02:43 PM
I would say this is the exact opposite of special pleading. I assume that there is nothing special about Earth...

Upon what do you base that? At the moment, we have to some degree explored upwards of 70 worlds, and every single one of them has proven unique to the extent of our knowledge.

ntech
16th August 2006, 06:21 PM
He also makes no bones about how he considers it highly unlikely, should there be ET life, that there has ever been or will ever be contact.
Where did he ever say that? He does give reasons why even if anyone received a signal from us we may destroy ourselves before an answer could get back.

Again, either one of our opinions could end up being the case as you say. Carl Sagan actually roughly calculated the odds on that show.

Outhere
16th August 2006, 07:42 PM
Wasn't there a news item a few months back about a signal being received that might have been the real thing? Whatever happened on that? Obviously, it's not making the front page these days. Was it debunked?

Should we really be contacted, I'd probably feel the way I do now about manned missions to Mars. I'd like to see it in my lifetime, but doubt it will happen. I keep wondering, what will Brittany Spears say?

Beady
17th August 2006, 02:57 AM
Where did he ever say that?

I forget the exact source, but it's in a passage where he does the math about time, distance and possible locations of alien civilizations. IIRC, He uses his estimate of the answer from the Drake Equation to scatter civilizations equidistantly about the galaxy, and then estimates the least amount of time necessary for voyages/messages to make the trip.

Perhaps, on remembering, I should have said "meaningful" contact.

BTW, Sagan wrote a lot of books, and if you read enough of them, in sequential order, you can watch his attitudes change on several different topics.

pmckean
17th August 2006, 03:29 AM
I have no opinion on whether there ARE other intelligent species out there in the near infinite vastness of the Universe, except that I hope there are.

As so many people on our own peculiar little blue-green ball already believe odd things as fact, indisputable objective evidence of extrasolar life would likely have precisely no effect on humanity.

I think the monster that is organised religion tends to adapt to new social trends, anyway. Fighting it all the way, of course. Witness current debate over gay clergy, women priests etc - and even growing enlightenment over evolution - now widely accepted by church leaders, if reviled by fundamentalist grass-roots. Religion, ironically, survives by adapting - evolving, and always will.

A more interesting question, perhaps, is what more advanced alien cultures might have to say about religion. Would they outgrow it, or evolve into ultrasophisticated spacefaring evangelicals? (shudder)

I remember a fantastic old sci-fi novel by Greg Bear - "The Forge of God". In it, a manufactured biological ET is discovered on earth. Before it dies, the US military grabs it, and it eventually gets an audience with the the devoutly religious President (ominous foreshadowing, there). He has one important question for it; "Do you believe in God?". "I believe in pain..." answers the ET.

Starthinker
17th August 2006, 08:27 AM
Ask them about John 10:16: "And other sheep I have, which are not of this fold: them also I must bring, and they shall hear my voice; and there shall be one fold, and one shepherd."

They'll probably say it refers to the Gentiles, or such, but there's nothing in the passage, or the context, that limits the meaning in any way.

I may digress, but wasn't this used by the Mormans in regards to American Indians having Jesus appear before them after his death?