reprise
3rd June 2003, 02:45 AM
As those living in this region will be aware, Indonesia is due for a parliamentary election next year and for the first time Indonesian voters will be directly electing their president.
In spite of thinking that Megawati Sukarnoputri is probably the most inept leader of a secular government in our region, her government is infinitely preferable to the alternatives of either a military government or an Islamic government.
If I was one of the groups seeking to oust her from power, I'd certainly be thinking that 2003 might be a good year to make my move. It's hard to imagine her being able to hold onto power in the face of any concerted effort to dislodge her, and she has few political allies on whom she can rely (Australia only puts up with her because the alternatives are so much worse).
So what are the chances of her facing either a military or an Islamic coup before the end of the year? My guess is that it's more likely than not someone will seek to dislodge her from power well in advance of the parliamentary and presidential elections.
And if they succeed, Australia's going to have its work cut out defending East Timor's independence, not to mention having to decide just how willing we are to meddle in the affairs of the provinces of Irian Jaya and Bali.
(I really wish the woman didn't remind me so much of Imelda Marcos)
In spite of thinking that Megawati Sukarnoputri is probably the most inept leader of a secular government in our region, her government is infinitely preferable to the alternatives of either a military government or an Islamic government.
If I was one of the groups seeking to oust her from power, I'd certainly be thinking that 2003 might be a good year to make my move. It's hard to imagine her being able to hold onto power in the face of any concerted effort to dislodge her, and she has few political allies on whom she can rely (Australia only puts up with her because the alternatives are so much worse).
So what are the chances of her facing either a military or an Islamic coup before the end of the year? My guess is that it's more likely than not someone will seek to dislodge her from power well in advance of the parliamentary and presidential elections.
And if they succeed, Australia's going to have its work cut out defending East Timor's independence, not to mention having to decide just how willing we are to meddle in the affairs of the provinces of Irian Jaya and Bali.
(I really wish the woman didn't remind me so much of Imelda Marcos)