Cruisers - Hurricane Warning

[Beady]

Possible hurricane (http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/08/22/tropical.weather.ap/index.html)to keep an eye on:


Forecasters said the system was expected to head northwest later in the day and long-range forecasts show the storm nearing Bermuda in about a week.


No big deal yet, and may well miss us completely. On the other hand...

[VPescado]

Looking at this page (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/151151.shtml?5day), it seems like we are unlikely to see much effect.

<cue background music " . . . a three hour tour....">

[kittynh]

you know, if you DO sink, the Bermuda Triangle will get ALL the blame!!!

thanks!

Leave the surviving skeptics to try to explain THAT away!!!

[Beady]

Looking at this page (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/151151.shtml?5day), it seems like we are unlikely to see much effect.

<cue background music " . . . a three hour tour....">

Looks like the worst it would do is force us to stay in the western Gulf, rather than go to the Bahamas. Belize may be back on.

[VPescado]

Looks like the worst it would do is force us to stay in the western Gulf, rather than go to the Bahamas. Belize may be back on.

That would be wonderful - as we are still confirmed for our Belize excursion.

[VPescado]

Well Tropical Storm Debby seems to be expected to peel away, but tropical depression number five (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/205704.shtml?5day) would seem to be on a collision course for us cruisers.

I wonder if this will turn into an Eastern Carribean Cruise?

[Beady]

I wonder if this will turn into an Eastern Carribean Cruise?

Looking at the 5-day, looks like we'll be OK for Key West, but Cozumel may be out. Anybody for Nassau? That would mean the whole cruise would be spent in the Triangle.

However, if the storm doesn't strengthen, the center looks to be well northwest of Cozumel by the time we're due to dock. I guess we just wouldn't have clear-blue skies.

Hey Jeff? Feel like giving odds?

[Beady]

At the moment, it appears that Key West has a 20% chance of experiencing winds of 40 to 73 mph while we're there. Cozumel is barely inside the 30% area.

Whatever, it's going to be breezy, and I don't think I'm going to be eating a lot on Formal Night.

[Jeff Wagg]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Let's see.. Debby is completely ouf of the picture.

They're predicting a 5% for tropical storm winds in Key West when we get there.

They're predicting 20% chance of tropical storm winds when we're in Cozumel.

Tropical force winds are 39MPH. The ship moves at 28 MPH or so. This is not that big of a deal.

And even if the absolute worst possible forecast came true.. we'd STILL have a great time, and the cruise line would probably take us to San Juan instead.

I'd be more concerned if we were going to Jamaica, but I think we have an EXCELLENT forecast for a quiet cruise.

Also note, that they're predicting a 0% chance of a hurricane in the area while we're there.

[Beady]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

They're predicting a 5% for tropical storm winds in Key West when we get there.
They're predicting 20% chance of tropical storm winds when we're in Cozumel.
Tropical force winds are 39MPH.

Correction: Tropical storm-force winds are 39-72 mph. Although, at the percentages we're getting, we're likely to be at the lower end of the scale. As I said, breezy, but I've seen worse here at home. Besides, our balcony cabin will be on the leeward side of the ship. :D

Another thing to think about is that the storm center will be crossing our track ahead of us, and we will pass somewhere behind it; how close will we get to the center? It's an interesting exercise.

A word of advice, speaking from experience: If you do start feeling sick, head out on deck or onto your balcony if you have one. Ships' motion is much easier to deal with, even fun, on deck. OTOH, it may be "interesting" being in the pool in rough seas.

And even if the absolute worst possible forecast came true.. we'd STILL have a great time, and the cruise line would probably take us to San Juan instead.

I've always wanted to go to San Juan, and explore the castle/fort. And San Juan is still inside the Triangle.

Also note, that they're predicting a 0% chance of a hurricane in the area while we're there.

Yeah, well, you can't win 'em all.

[Beady]

It's getting worse. It is now Tropical Storm "Ernesto." Looks like they're forecasting hurricane strength as the center passes due east of Cozumel, Monday afternoon.

Jeff, what are the most likely changes to the itinerary?

[Jeff Wagg]

Yep, it's getting worse. Still unlikely to affect us, but in the event that it does, the likely ports are Nassau or San Juan. But there's no point in worrying about it now. Or at all, actually.

[VPescado]

They're predicting 20% chance of tropical storm winds when we're in Cozumel.

It's not just the winds though. It would put a damper (pun intended) on things if there was a huge amount of rain hitting us both on the ship and in port at Cozumel.

Snorkling will be a lot less interesting if the sea has churned up a huge amount of sand in the water.

[VPescado]

Let me preface this by saying, that I am absolutely not concerned about the safety of the ship or the crew. Cruise ships are huge investments, and passenger lawsuits are huge liabilities (not to mention that the last thing they want is a thousand passengers going home and telling all thier friends about the miserable time they had on their cruise). I trust RCL to act in their best interests and take us out of the path of the storm. That said, I'm a mild bit concerned about rain, but most of all I am curious.

So, I just called RCCL. Their Hurricaine Team (I visualize them as all wearing jumpsuits camped out in the Royal Carribean Hurricane Command center with a large supply of coffee and donuts and several TV's blaring weather updates) is actively monitoring the situation in regards to several cruises including ours. They are making updates every couple of hours, but it is still obviously quite early for anything definitive. They are expecting some swells in Key West when we are there but aren't that worried about it at this point. What happens after Key West is an open question.

If anyone wanted to get updates, I was told that the reservation number is a great choice to talk to someone with the latest info (+1 866 562 7625).

[Beady]

Still unlikely to affect us, but in the event that it does, the likely ports are Nassau or San Juan.

Jeff, Nassau would be no problem, logistically, but isn't San Juan a pretty long haul? I'm just guessing, but it seems the only way they could do it in the time allotted would be to eliminate both Key West and Cococay.

BTW, if it happens, it happens. Still, as Sean Connery once said in one of my favorite movies*, "It is good to know where we are going."

*The Wind and the Lion.

[Beady]

I'm a mild bit concerned about rain, but most of all I am curious.

I don't see rain, as long as it's just rain, as a problem. With the heat and humidity I'm expecting, the rain either would feel good or wouldn't be noticed.

[Ceritus]

Possible hurricane (http://www.cnn.com/2006/WEATHER/08/22/tropical.weather.ap/index.html)to keep an eye on:



No big deal yet, and may well miss us completely. On the other hand...

id be more worried about ERNESTO

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

I think it will turn north before then due to the cold front pushing through the central US on the 26th which will eventually push on down to the gulf states where it will become stationary.

[VPescado]

id be more worried about ERNESTO

That is indeed the storm that we have been discussing since yesterday afternoon (back when it was only called tropical depression number five).

[Jeff Wagg]

I'd be happy if we never made it to any ports.

It's an ADVENTURE.

[BrianSI]

Yes, that's my sentiment. Why are we discussing this? I just want to hang out with skeptics on a big ship, even if it just does circles in the Bermuda Triangle. Of course, we should veer outside just to say we did in fact escape.

[mumchup]

I'm with BrianSI on this one. I just finished up 2 weeks of craziness at work and I'll be on a plane in the morning. After that I don't care much about ports or weather as long as I have something to keep me occupied.
Lectures, conversation, & way, way too much food should be plenty.

[Beady]

Lectures, conversation, & way, way too much food should be plenty.

What, you don't want unrestrained sex and debauchery?

[Beady]

Yes, that's my sentiment. Why are we discussing this? I just want to hang out with skeptics on a big ship, even if it just does circles in the Bermuda Triangle.

Where they take us will determine the wind and sea state which, in turn, will determine whether we pig out and go to to the lectures, or spend our time spilling our guts into the sea and trying hard not to fall overboard. It will also determine the direction we sail in, our cabin's relation to the wind and whether our balcony will be usable, and thus whether we wasted a considerable amount of money. I'm mildly interested in that.

This morning, the wind cone is expanding, and I'm beginning to emotionally let go of Key West. Pity; I had a couple of things I really wanted to do there. Oh well, I guess it'll be an excuse to go back another time for a regular vacation and stay in that bordello-turned-B&B I found.

[Kevin 251]

From the Tropical Weather Update page of the Royal Caribbean website:

-----------------------------------------------------
Enchantment of the Seas departing Monday, August 28, will sail a revised itinerary with port calls in Nassau, Bahamas, Tuesday and Wednesday; Coco Cay, Bahamas, Thursday; and Key West, Florida, Friday.
-----------------------------------------------------

So it looks like Cozumel is out, and we'll have TWO days in Nassau. Cococay and Key West are still on the itinerary, but on different days.

This also means there won't be an "at sea" day with no port call.

Of course, this could all change again, I suppose...

Like Beady, I'd be happy to see Key West stay on the itinerary. Any town with wild chickens running loose is my kind of town.

[VPescado]

Wow, it sounds like the JREF folks will have their hands full in redoing the schedule to deal with he missing at-sea day.

Jeff, while I know that you are scrambling to keep things organized, it might be nice if you can tell us at the party tonight if this means that there will be any sessions while the ship is in port (so folks can plan ahead when signing up for excursions when they get on board).

It might also be nice if someone (and this doesn't have to be Jeff) can print out a few copies of the excursion list for Nassau so that folks can talk about them at the party and see if there is any common interest among other skeptical cruisers.

[Jeff Wagg]

OK, information will be availble tonight. We haven't figured it all out yet.


BUT.... this means...


THE ENTIRE CRUISE IS IN THE TRIANGLE

[brooklyn44]

BON VOYAGE JREFERS! :)
I'm sure you'll all have terrific triangle tales to tell.
Renee

[VPescado]

I notice with some grim amusement that the expected track of the storm is now drifting Eastward as we have decided to go to the Bahamas. So now we will be *in* the Bermuda triangle with a Hurricaine. :eye-poppi

[SkepticScott]

The itinerary was
28th: set sail
29th: at sea
30th: Cozumel
31st: at sea
1st: Cococay
2nd: return