Fun in the casino

[Hawk one]

OK, so this fellow's coming into the JREF chatroom, claiming he can distort the odds in a game of roulette by paranormal means, which should be enough to win the Million Dollar Challenge. I'm therefore giving a link to where he's posted this claim (with his knowledge and approval), and will let you forum fellows have a look.

Hey, we can't keep all the fun in the JREF chatroom to ourselves (only the sexy parts). :D

Anyway, the link:
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/msg/2c9e36034bc685f8

[Yoink]

OK, so this fellow's coming into the JREF chatroom, claiming he can distort the odds in a game of roulette by paranormal means, which should be enough to win the Million Dollar Challenge. I'm therefore giving a link to where he's posted this claim (with his knowledge and approval), and will let you forum fellows have a look.

Hey, we can't keep all the fun in the JREF chatroom to ourselves (only the sexy parts). :D

Anyway, the link:
http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/msg/2c9e36034bc685f8

Um, was that link wrong, or was your description of the claim just in jest?

I don't think the ability of pretty women to cadge free chips out of drunk male punters is "paranormal" exactly.

[jmercer]

Um, was that link wrong, or was your description of the claim just in jest?

I don't think the ability of pretty women to cadge free chips out of drunk male punters is "paranormal" exactly.

Re-read it - no joke, I was in the chatroom, too. The guy is claiming he can influence the odds through his girlfriend.

[roger]

Actually, his follow up just shows an inability to calculate odds properly, with no mention of the "lucky" penny. What is he on about?

[Hawk one]

Um, was that link wrong, or was your description of the claim just in jest?

I don't think the ability of pretty women to cadge free chips out of drunk male punters is "paranormal" exactly.

When he entered the room, the first thing he said was:

<ChallengeBoy> I have created a scientific theory that may pass the million dollar challenge!

And he said some other stuff, and gave that link, and I have tried to give the gist of what -he- claimed in there. He wasn't joking. Well, maybe he was just trolling, but that's another issue.
My personal opinion on this should be apparent in the second paragraph; the one that ends in a smiley.

[Yoink]

But disregarding his particular "betting scheme" he's quite right to say that if someone keeps giving you free money you can "beat the casino" (not that the casino will much care). That is, if you just keep betting with free money and then keep a percentage of your winnings--how could you lose?

I don't see where the paranormal comes in.

[Hawk one]

Well, neither do I. Heck, I have a hard time just seeing any consistency in some of those paragraphs.

[Terry]

His follow-up: http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/msg/f022ed0371b26b2f

I have asked why he doesn't register and post himself.

[Yoink]

His follow-up: http://groups.google.com/group/sci.stat.math/msg/f022ed0371b26b2f

I have asked why he doesn't register and post himself.

I can't make any sense at all of what he's on about.

Is he saying that you bet one penny on black and two on red? That way, if black is the winner I get one penny and lose two. But the "one penny" was a freebie, so actually I broke even. So now I can start again from scratch. But if red wins, I lose one and win two, so now I have another "freebie" coin, and start again.

Is that it? Where's he getting his bizarre "odds" from, though?

[Cuddles]

That is exactly my method of gambling. I make sure I never bet my own money and I haven't lost anything yet.

[mrfreeze]

Probably played too many old casino video games where they have the odds like that. I thought the same thing until I actually went to a real casino and saw the real payouts for such things.

[roger]

I can't make any sense at all of what he's on about.

Is he saying that you bet one penny on black and two on red? That way, if black is the winner I get one penny and lose two. But the "one penny" was a freebie, so actually I broke even. So now I can start again from scratch. But if red wins, I lose one and win two, so now I have another "freebie" coin, and start again.

Is that it? Where's he getting his bizarre "odds" from, though?I read it differently, but his wording is so vague it is hard to tell.

My take:

Start with two pennies. Bet 1 on black.

If I win, then I am 1 penny ahead.

If I lose, I place the other penny on black. I can either lose or win. If I win, then I I'm back at my starting point, and I can play to win.

So there are three scenerios here, 2 that win, and one that loses. Thus, my odds are 66%
----

Of course, that is a completely incorrect way of calculating the odds and counting scenerios.

[IXP]

Actually, his odds are correct. If you always stop when you are 1 penny up, and you start with 2 pennies, you have a 2/3 chance of winning that one penny. However, the other 1/3 of the time you lose 2 pennies, so there is no net win over mulitple trials.

Of course in a real casino the odds of winning on red or black are not actually 50%, there are 2 (not 1) green sectors (0 and 00) making the odds 18/38 to win a bet placed on red or black. This is how the casino makes money.

IXP

[Blackwell]

2/3 + 3/4 = 5/7. And that's 71.42857%

That's some great math right there!

Actually, I think I'm missing something in his explanation - how does the 50/50 relate to the "7 ways I can win and 5 ways I can lose" and to the 2/3 + 3/4 = 5/7?

[Plasmadog]

...there are 2 (not 1) green sectors (0 and 00) making the odds 18/38 to win a bet placed on red or black.

That depends on the casino. Some use just one green, others use two.

[jmercer]

Well, he's utterly disappeared. Probably got a sniff of our troll repellent. :D

[Metullus]

Was this guy CoreyWhite? (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=48091)

[Yoink]

Was this guy CoreyWhite? (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=48091)

Wow--that was something. I think it could be the same guy. It has the same "If you tell me what you're about to do I will predict the future: prepare to be amazed!" quality to it.

[William Smith]

These cases make it hard to ell who they are kidding: Others or themselves.



Man, the board is quiet these days.

[sillyhead]

Oh I can do WAAAAY better than that. What I do is sit down at the nickel slots, and very slowly, play. By the time I've spent 10 dollars, I've drank 20 dollars worth of beer. And Mr. Randi says you can't get something for nothing? Bah! (:

[IXP]

If you play good basic strategy, and the game has good rules, you can actually have a lower loss rate at $5 blackjack than at 5 cent slots.

However, the play does tend to deteriorate with beers.

BTW: there are entire books written on how to get the most out of Comps in L.V. and it can be very positive.

Ixp

[Lisa Simpson]

Was this guy CoreyWhite? (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=48091)

Yes, Challenge Boy = Waldo* = Corey White


*Chat room regulars know Waldo as the guy who psychically guessed my real first name and claimed a hit because he got the first and last letters correct. Of course, everything in the middle was wrong.

[Ladewig]

If you play good basic strategy, and the game has good rules, you can actually have a lower loss rate at $5 blackjack than at 5 cent slots.

H

Those calculations assume at least three pulls per minute on the slot machine. I suspect that sillyhead can play much more slowly than that.

[IXP]

Of course, but how boring is that? At least playing blackjack uses a few grey cells.

IXP