Coincidences DO Happen!

[defaultdotxbe]

i was going to post this at SLC just out of interest, given the recent thread on money folding i decided to post this here

My great grandfather served in WW2 in AfrikaKorps under Rommel, he was transferred back to Europe, but en route the transport he was on was torpedoed by a British submarine and went down. He floated in the Mediterranean for 3 days before being picked up by a British destroyer. He was sent to the USA as a POW and spent time in camps in Colorado, Michegan and Illinois. After the war he was sent back to Germany.

fast forward 30 years

My grandmother moved to the US with my mother, and my great grandparents were visiting from Germany. My mother was spending the weekend at a Girl Scout camp, so my great grandparents went to see here there.

The whole time they were at the camp my great grandfather kept saying he knew the place, that he had been there before, everyone though he was nuts, but to humor him they went to historical society to find out the history of the camp.

They found out that during WW2 the camp was a POW camp, and the cabin my mother stayed as a Girl Scout was the very same barracks that housed my great grandfather.

Theres more, while in the camp my great grandfather was taken to local farms or help in the fields, he said he spent all day harvesting onions. The area where my house is used to be an onion farm, its very likely that he once worked on my backyard.



so there, strange coincidences happen in real life and theres no deeper meaning to them, they are just coincidences

[CurtC]

Creepy.

Either that or it's the work of the NWO.

[Bell]

Nice story, Default. Thanks for sharing it with us.

Strange indeed, but nothing more.

[gumboot]

I've got one (not personal)

Good friend of mine I work with on a lot of film jobs...

His father was in the 2nd NZEF fighting against the Germans in North Africa. At one engagement he was seriously wounded, however because the allies were being driven back, his comrades were unable to recover him, and sadly had to abandon him to die.

Fortunately as the Germans approached a German medic began treating him. Then the New Zealanders counter-attacked and drove the Germans back again. The Germans quickly countered again, and the Kiwis were again driven back.

This went on for several days, and every time the Allies were driven back, the very same German medic treated his wounds. Ultimately he was taken prisoner by the Germans and shipped off to a POW camp. Released at the end of the war.

Fast forward 30 or so years.

My friend's father is out with his mates drinking at a bar in Auckland, NZ where he lives. There's a bunch of Germans there too. Suddenly his father's face goes ash white. He stares at the German. "You were in the Africa Korps weren't you!"
The German nods.
Immediately the scene becomes tense as the Germans and Kiwis face off.
"You were a medic weren't you!"
The German nods again.
"I know you!" He declares.
It was the same medic who had saved his live so long ago. The German had moved to Auckland to live. The two of them are now best friends.

-Andrew

[Matt32]

Default, that may be what you THINK, but in fact... the whole girl scout camp was a hologram. It was designed by the Zionist Socialist CIA Martian NWO Illuminati Whig Party NEDM conspirators a long time ago in order to fool your great grandfather, because they were really bored one day and had long since finished distributing subtle illustrations of future planned conspiracies into US currency bills. They had nothing better to do, man. You can't disprove this, so I am right.

(All kidding aside, that's a really cool story. Coincedences happen of course, even weird ones... otherwise we probably wouldn't have the word "coincedence" in our vocabulary!)

[kevin]

so there, strange coincidences happen in real life and theres no deeper meaning to them, they are just coincidences

I think it means you're supposed to be the next Dali Lama.

[Alareth]

Default, that may be what you THINK, but in fact... the whole girl scout camp was a hologram. It was designed by the Zionist Socialist CIA Martian NWO Illuminati Whig Party NEDM conspirators a long time ago in order to fool your great grandfather, because they were really bored one day and had long since finished distributing subtle illustrations of future planned conspiracies into US currency bills. They had nothing better to do, man. You can't disprove this, so I am right.

(All kidding aside, that's a really cool story. Coincedences happen of course, even weird ones... otherwise we probably wouldn't have the word "coincedence" in our vocabulary!)

Oh. My. God.

A Whig Party reference?

[einsteen]

Ever heard about statistical overlap ?

[Alareth]

I just remembered one that happened to me.

Back when I was in the Navy we made port in Trieste Italy one time. There was a barbeque on the pier and as I'm stand there eating a hot dog on the OTHER SIDE of the world a voice behind me says, "Hey, didn't you work at Rouse's?"

Rouse's is a small 6 store grocery chain located in southern Louisiana, and yes, I did work there before joining the Navy.

It turns out that one of the guys from the carrier that was also in port had worked there and enlisted about a year before me. He was at the same barbeque.

[falzer]

Here's one.

My mom met up with some old friends from school for a get-togethor. She hasn't talked to most of these people in well over 20 years. Long time no see. At some point the conversation becomes "so, how are the kids? What are they up to?"

Eventually mom tells the group about how my brother moved away, was living in a house with some roomates in a different city, etc. One of mom's friends remarked how that sounded just like what her daughter was doing, same city and all. Wait... what are the chances of them living togethor?

So mom called my brother to ask about his roommates to see if her friend's daughter is living with him. It turns out they did live togethor! A hell of a coincidence I thought. Too funny. :)

[MortFurd]

Coincidences do happen.
A couple of years ago, I decided to surprise my wife with a long weekend in a castle. The original plan (which I had shared with my co-workers) was to leave for work on Thursday morning, then come back with a rented convertible and drag her off to Paris. That fell through because my wife and the kids were feeling rather unwell Wednesday evening.

I got us reservations in Schoenburg castle (http://www.hotel-schoenburg.com/) on the Rhein river here in Germany. We checked in on Friday around noon. Since the parking lot is down the hill from the castle, the hotel has a little tractor with a cart that they use to bring people's luggage up. Whilst I'm standing there in front of the honeymoon suite waiting for the baggage tractor, one of my co-workers and his wife amble up the hill and say "Hi."

They thought that my wife and I were in Paris, and were quite surprised to find us there. I was also very suprised to see them there. I knew that he was going to be checking out the route to the hotel where he was to attend a seminar the next week, but I had no idea that the seminar hotel was just down the hill from Schoenburg castle. I also didn't know that he was going to check that route on Friday.

He and his wife had driven over from where they live (close to Idar Oberstein) just to check the route to the hotel, and decided to go on up to the castle and have lunch. Just as they arrive, I happened to be standing in the castle courtyard. A couple of minutes difference, and we'd have missed each other. My wife and I were going to go down to the town below the castle for lunch, so we'd have not seen my co-worker.

Sicne we were all there together, we just went ahead and ate at the castle. It was worth doing once, but though the surroundings were fantastic, the food was decidedly odd. I can't remember the names of the stuff, but the best part of the meal was the itty-bitty bowl of carrot soup - and since I can't stand carrots, that ought to tell you what I thought of hte rest of it.

Freaky damned coincidence, but odd things DO happen.

[Soapy Sam]

My great grandfather served in WW2 in AfrikaKorps under Rommel,


Great story. The only part that creeps me out is that my father was shooting at your great grandfather. I'm getting old!:(

I'm glad they both missed. Here's to bad shots everywhere!:)

[Parsman]

In my mid 20s I worked as a croupier in Aberdeen, Scotland. I got a job in London along with a few other staff and we moved into a house together in Wembley, North London. One of the girls in the house was going to get a visit from a couple of friends from Aberdeen and on the day they were due to arrive I decided to get out of the way, so I took the tube over to Camden, about 30 minutes away after a couple of changes of tube line. I walked about for a while, visited the street market and a couple of shops. When I was finished I headed back for the tube station and began walking down the stairs. I looked up and saw the two people coming to visit my housemate walking up the way! They had got turned around and lost and were heading for the surface to find a phone box and call for help. I hadn't been to Camden before and didn't go again while I lived in London. The station was on the wrong tube line entirely and they could have got off at any number of other stations along the way at any time on their trip. I don't know what the statistical probability was but I think I probably have more chance of winning the lottery than of anything like that ever happening again.

[rwguinn]

Ok--
On the way to Huntsville, Al, from Denver, with 2 coworkers, we changed planes in Dallas/Ft Worth. there, walking down the corridor, was my uncle.
3 months later, same coworkers, on the way to Princeton, NJ, we had a layover in Chicago-O'hare. Whom should we meet in the gate area but my brother and his family, just getting back from a trip.
a month after that, different coworkers, met my old golfing buddy in DFW.
They talked about me a lot at work after that...

[Modified]

Here's a different sort of coincidence:

After college, my sister and her friend decided to take a trip around the country. They drove from mid-Michigan to Seattle, down to New Orleans, to Miami, and back to Michigan. The three-week trip was over 9000 miles. They finally got home, pulled into their driveway, turned off the engine, and the car's muffler immediately fell off.

[defaultdotxbe]

the car's muffler immediately fell off.
did it fall faster than the speed of gravity?

[Anti-sophist]

Mathematically speaking, coincindences are required with sufficiently complicated (random) events. A lack of coincindences would imply, in fact, that the underlying assumption of randomness is probably wrong.

With some crude math it's pretty easy to show that if you pick 2000 Americans, at random, the chance that two of them are 'related' is about 50%. (depending on the definition of related of course)

[Rodney]

did it fall faster than the speed of gravity? Yes, and George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush, Barbara Bush, Laura Bush, and a Mulberry Bush were all seen leaving the scene of the crime . . . However, what exactly is this thread supposed to prove -- that no matter how great the coincidence, there is no need to get excited about it? The late Monsieur de Fontgibu might have begged to differ. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronicity

[Hellbound]

Yes, and George W. Bush, George H.W. Bush, Barbara Bush, Laura Bush, and a Mulberry Bush were all seen leaving the scene of the crime . . . However, what exactly is this thread supposed to prove -- that no matter how great the coincidence, there is no need to get excited about it? The late Monsieur de Fontgibu might have begged to differ. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synchronicity

He might also have liked inserting small furry animals into his rectum.

Whether he begs to differ or not, he must prove his case, or it's more verbal diarrhea, and as such inconsequential to the point.

[Dog Town]

Here's just a few off the top.
Was doing a show in San Antonio in early 80's, on a day off, while frolicking in the hot tub with friends, I got my rolling papers wet. Was on my way to go down to the corner store and buy more, when some real nice talent arrived and held me up. 30 min later I ran down to the store so we could all partake in the goodies. Walking out of the store I hear my name shouted from a passing car. I look up it is my flat mate,(who had no idea I was there, and lives in Houston) and family on their way to a funeral.

Jackson Hole, Wyo. snow boarding, me and my party took snow mobiles deep into Yellowstone. This was 1990 late Jan,. not many tourists that week. Stop off at a warming hut , while having a nice cup of hot cocoa, I hear a laugh that I know quite well. Look into the otherside of the hut, and there is a girl, that I went out with, and worked with 5 years earlier, had not seen since.In the middle of nowhere! Six people! WTF?

Doing a show in Jamaica, that took a month to set up. I got there the first day, there were four of us from the production staff, total. Two of which were riggers. I walked out to site, to see how things were going, day one. I notice one of the riggers wearing a shirt from my favorite BBQ joint , he turns around and it is a guy who lived two houses down the street from me in Austin, ten years before!

There are plenty more. Most of them inconvenient, at best! Don't wanna tell on my self....

Go Gravy! Kick the Hick!

DT

[Modified]

Mathematically speaking, coincindences are required with sufficiently complicated (random) events. A lack of coincindences would imply, in fact, that the underlying assumption of randomness is probably wrong.

Most people who watch basketball believe that the players make shots in streaks, while in reality most players are slightly "anti-streaky" (after a made shot, chances of making the next shot are slightly lower than the expected value). A random sequence of makes and misses looks non-random to those who haven't studied probability, and an expected number of coincidences look exceptional.

[Rodney]

Most people who watch basketball believe that the players make shots in streaks, while in reality most players are slightly "anti-streaky" (after a made shot, chances of making the next shot are slightly lower than the expected value).Can you document?

[defaultdotxbe]

to demonstrate the average persons understanding of probability ive devised a simple test


a coin is flipped 4 times, rate these outcome sets from least probable to most probable:

A: H-H-H-H
B: H-T-H-T
C: H-H-T-T


my guess is that msot people will say A is the least probable, because they are all the same result, followed by C because you have a 50/50 spread, but they are grouped together and B as the most probable because its more "random"

however all 4 sets have the same chance of coming up from a random set of coin flips, none of them is more or less likely than any other

[Brainster]

The wildest one that ever happened to me came on a flight to New Jersey for Christmas. I had been a Big Brother to a young man for a couple of years. Tyson's brother Travis also had a Big Brother, a nice guy named Mick. Well, I'm getting on the plane and as I head down the aisle I notice somebody who looks familiar, but at first because of the location I was a little confused, the realized who it was when he said "Hi, Pat--what a coincidence, us being on the same plane. Where are you seated?"

I looked down at my ticket stub and did a double-take. "Looks like I'm in the seat next to you!"

[Toro]

Conspiracies do happen.

But they're rare.

[brodski]

Most people who watch basketball believe that the players make shots in streaks, while in reality most players are slightly "anti-streaky" (after a made shot, chances of making the next shot are slightly lower than the expected value). A random sequence of makes and misses looks non-random to those who haven't studied probability, and an expected number of coincidences look exceptional.

have you read "how we know what isn't so (http://www.amazon.com/How-Know-What-Isnt-So/dp/0029117062)" by any chance? There is a whole chapter based on a couple of published papers cited in that book which demonstrate exactly what you posted.

[Stellafane]

Ha! I have you all beat...

A number of years ago, during the last stages of my first marriage, I started having an affair with a co-worker (OK, I was young and irresponsible -- so sue me). I really didn't know much about her, nor she about me. That was by design; we figured it would be less complicated if neither of us knew about our respective domestic situations. Anyway, one day I went golfing, planning to meet my buddy at the country club. Unfortunately he bagged at the last second, but it was a nice day so I decided to hook up with whomever was willing to let me play with them. I ended up with this guy I never met before, whom I'll call Curt. (His real name was Carl, but don't tell anyone.) He seemed like a decent sort, and we hit it off OK, so the round was a pretty enjoyable one. That is, until around the 8th hole or so, when we got caught behind this pair of women who were playing really, really slow. I'm sort of impatient when it comes to golf (which is one of the reasons I hardly play anymore) so I decided to walk up ahead and ask the women if we could play though.

I started coming up to them, and they're looking sort of familiar, then real familiar -- one was my wife, and the other was my girlfriend!!! I couldn't believe it -- I didn't even know they knew each other, and didn't want to imagine what they might be saying. My wife wasn't even supposed to be there, I thought she had told me she was going shopping. I could just picture her waiting for me at home, golf club in hand...

I stagger back to my playing partner in a complete daze. Apparently I had a horrified look on my face, because he asks me what's wrong. So I told him -- kind of "too much information" maybe, but I just had to tell someone about this amazing (if really inconvenient) coincidence. He looks at me in disbelief for a moment, then bursts out laughing in my face. I sort of laughed with him -- I mean, if you can look past the horror, it actually was kind of funny in a morbid way. Anyway, Curt offers to go up and ask to play though, telling me to just sneak ahead a hole so they don't see me and he'll catch up. A few minutes later he comes back, with a real thoughtful look on his face.

He looks me in the eye and says, "Small world, isn't it?"

[Dog Town]

Ha! I have you all beat...

"Small world, isn't it?"

Like I saidThere are plenty more. Most of them inconvenient, at best!

I assure you I could raise hairs in places you never knew existed. Nice one though...

[Alareth]

Ha! I have you all beat...

A number of years ago, during the last stages of my first marriage, I started having an affair with a co-worker (OK, I was young and irresponsible -- so sue me). I really didn't know much about her, nor she about me. That was by design; we figured it would be less complicated if neither of us knew about our respective domestic situations. Anyway, one day I went golfing, planning to meet my buddy at the country club. Unfortunately he bagged at the last second, but it was a nice day so I decided to hook up with whomever was willing to let me play with them. I ended up with this guy I never met before, whom I'll call Curt. (His real name was Carl, but don't tell anyone.) He seemed like a decent sort, and we hit it off OK, so the round was a pretty enjoyable one. That is, until around the 8th hole or so, when we got caught behind this pair of women who were playing really, really slow. I'm sort of impatient when it comes to golf (which is one of the reasons I hardly play anymore) so I decided to walk up ahead and ask the women if we could play though.

I started coming up to them, and they're looking sort of familiar, then real familiar -- one was my wife, and the other was my girlfriend!!! I couldn't believe it -- I didn't even know they knew each other, and didn't want to imagine what they might be saying. My wife wasn't even supposed to be there, I thought she had told me she was going shopping. I could just picture her waiting for me at home, golf club in hand...

I stagger back to my playing partner in a complete daze. Apparently I had a horrified look on my face, because he asks me what's wrong. So I told him -- kind of "too much information" maybe, but I just had to tell someone about this amazing (if really inconvenient) coincidence. He looks at me in disbelief for a moment, then bursts out laughing in my face. I sort of laughed with him -- I mean, if you can look past the horror, it actually was kind of funny in a morbid way. Anyway, Curt offers to go up and ask to play though, telling me to just sneak ahead a hole so they don't see me and he'll catch up. A few minutes later he comes back, with a real thoughtful look on his face.

He looks me in the eye and says, "Small world, isn't it?"

That was you?


Just kidding ;)

I'm going to have to take a mulligan on this one.

[Brainache]

That was you?


Just kidding ;)

I'm going to have to take a mulligan on this one.

I need to know what Taking A Mulligan means. I'm a fan of strange turns of phrase and this one is new to me.
I've heard of mulligan stew.

[defaultdotxbe]

I need to know what Taking A Mulligan means. I'm a fan of strange turns of phrase and this one is new to me.
I've heard of mulligan stew.
its a golf term, although ive heard 2 definitions

1: doing over a bad shot

2: when you just cant sink the ball so you call it "in" and write down however many shots youve taken (or write down par) and move to the next hole

[Alareth]

I need to know what Taking A Mulligan means. I'm a fan of strange turns of phrase and this one is new to me.
I've heard of mulligan stew.

From Merriam-Webster:

Main Entry: mul·li·gan
Pronunciation: 'm&-li-g&n
Function: noun
Etymology: probably from the name Mulligan
: a free shot sometimes given a golfer in informal play when the previous shot was poorly played http://m-w.com/images/pixt.gif

[MG1962]

A personal one

I share the exact birth date and year with Steve Irwin.

I met my American girlfriend on the exact date he and Terri met (6th Oct)

Terri shares the same birthday and year as my ex wife (20th July)

[Stellafane]

That was you?


Just kidding ;)

I'm going to have to take a mulligan on this one.

Oh, the story isn't true of course. But I always loved this old joke, and since the topic was coincidences...

[Modified]

have you read "how we know what isn't so" by any chance? There is a whole chapter based on a couple of published papers cited in that book which demonstrate exactly what you posted.

I haven't read it. The misperception of streaks was something I had in the back of my mind for a long time. I stumbled upon some articles when I was doing unrelated cognitive science research.

[Modified]

Can you document?

I'm no expert, but the research seems to begin with "Hot-hand effect: Gilovich, Vallone and Tversky (1985)." There may be some debate as to whether or not there are streaks or anti-streaks in various sports, but the human misperception of streaks where there are none is clear.

As for basketball, I'd speculate that in shooting practice you would actually see streaks, but that this is negated in a game by the players feeling that making a shot or two entitles them to take a low-percentage shot, and because missing a shot or two makes them reluctant to risk missing another.

[Rodney]

I'm no expert, but the research seems to begin with "Hot-hand effect: Gilovich, Vallone and Tversky (1985)." There may be some debate as to whether or not there are streaks or anti-streaks in various sports, but the human misperception of streaks where there are none is clear.

As for basketball, I'd speculate that in shooting practice you would actually see streaks, but that this is negated in a game by the players feeling that making a shot or two entitles them to take a low-percentage shot, and because missing a shot or two makes them reluctant to risk missing another. According to -- www.hcrc.ed.ac.uk/cogsci2001/pdf-files/0152.pdf -- "To test if the phenomena described by the hot hand actually exist, Gilovich et al. (1985) analyzed a professional basketball team’s shooting over a season in order to see if streaks occur more often than expected by chance. They found that for each individual player, the proportion of shots hit was unrelated to how many previous shots in a row he had either hit or missed. Analysis also showed that the number of runs of hits or probability of hitting a free-throw was the same after a hit as after a miss for a group of professional players. A controlled study of college players found the same independence between shots and found that observers could not predict which shots would be hit or missed."

Thus, I don't see any evidence for your claim: "Most people who watch basketball believe that the players make shots in streaks, while in reality most players are slightly 'anti-streaky' (after a made shot, chances of making the next shot are slightly lower than the expected value)."

Further, again according to -- www.hcrc.ed.ac.uk/cogsci2001/pdf-files/0152.pdf -- "There have been some challenges to Gilovich et al.’s (1985) conclusion that there are no more streaks than expected by chance in basketball, or at least to the finding's generalizability. Gilden and Wilson (1995) found some evidence of more streaks than expected in golf putting and darts, although they explain this as due to fluctuations in performance producing more streaks than expected rather than a real dependence between events. Miyoshi (2000) used simulations to suggest that Gilovich et al.’s analysis may not have been sensitive enough to detect the hot hand if hot-hand periods are relatively infrequent."

So, it appears that the hot hand issue has not been completely resolved. In any event, your claim was that "in reality most players are slightly 'anti-streaky'."

[Modified]

Thus, I don't see any evidence for your claim: "Most people who watch basketball believe that the players make shots in streaks, while in reality most players are slightly 'anti-streaky'

The point I was making holds whether basketball shooting is random, anti-streaky, or slightly streaky. But, according to Ayton & Fisher's interpretation of the GVT paper in Memory and Cognition v32 #8, "However, when these authors computed the sequential dependencies between successive scoring attempts of players, they found that there was no such dependency; indeed, if anything, players who have had a run of successful scoring attempts are somewhat less likely to score next time."

[Rodney]

The point I was making holds whether basketball shooting is random, anti-streaky, or slightly streaky. But, according to Ayton & Fisher's interpretation of the GVT paper in Memory and Cognition v32 #8, "However, when these authors computed the sequential dependencies between successive scoring attempts of players, they found that there was no such dependency; indeed, if anything, players who have had a run of successful scoring attempts are somewhat less likely to score next time." Okay, thanks for letting me know where you got the anti-streaky notion. However, based on the "indeed, if anything, players who have had a run of successful scoring attempts are somewhat less likely to score next time" quote, I'm puzzled as to what kind of analysis was done. For example, how is a "run" defined? Let's say a player whose lifetime 3-point shooting percentage is 40% makes three 3-point shots in a row, then misses, then makes two more in a row, then misses, then makes two more in a row - that would be seven out of nine made for a well-under 50% shooter. Is that a run? Or would he have had to have made all nine shots?

[Modified]

However, based on the "indeed, if anything, players who have had a run of successful scoring attempts are somewhat less likely to score next time" quote, I'm puzzled as to what kind of analysis was done. For example, how is a "run" defined? Let's say a player whose lifetime 3-point shooting percentage is 40% makes three 3-point shots in a row, then misses, then makes two more in a row, then misses, then makes two more in a row - that would be seven out of nine made for a well-under 50% shooter. Is that a run? Or would he have had to have made all nine shots?

All I remember was that according to their data the odds of missing a shot after a make were slightly lower than expectation on a per-game basis, but I assume they did deeper analyses than just that. I'm not sure where I got that from though, as it was a long time ago. It could have been a GVT reference or a separate study.

I do imagine that none of these studies correct for injuries, cramps, etc. We might expect a player to shoot worse after getting poked in the eye or jamming a finger, but this is not what people mean by a "streak".