What is the likelyhood of a man made disaster this century?

[renata]

Forgive the glum post. I heard a story on NPR today about fundamentalists whose only reason to support Israel is that they think it is a fulfillment of biblical prophecies. So even though they support Israel in the short term, really it is a back handed kind of deal- before second coming of Jesus, all Jews are supposed to convert or die, as I understand it. These idiots are going nuts over a red heifer that was born. It is a second one- the first one got a few white hairs. But this one looks to be legit! Apocalypse surely is coming.


After this, I started wondering that if a catastrophe will occur, it will be a classic self fulfilling prophecy. Some religious nut will have undue influence and provoke a war. Current destructive capabilities are enormous, and it is possible for something horrible to occur.


So here is my question: How likely is it that there will be a large man made disaster this century? Not asteroid hitting Earth, but something caused by humans. I am thinking of something that would wipe out a lot of people- 10-20 millions. I honestly do not know. As more and more countries get their hands on nuclear weapons, it feels like a possibility of something of that sort grows every day. And a follow up question- if it does happen, where will it be? Middle East? India/Pakistan? Russia? Africa?

[Blue Monk]

I heard that same program on the way to work this morning. Very interesting. The first red heifer was specifically bred to fulfill the prophecy. Isn’t that cheating, hehe?

A larger man-made disaster in this century, in my opinion, is probably inevitable.

There was one hell of a large man-made disaster in this century but I’ll bet very few know about it.

It happened in the 70s in China but it was some time before the west learned about it. They had built a couple of large dams on the fork of a major river but budget cuts prevent proper upkeep. When a large rain came they went to open more floodgates only to find that they were frozen shut.

Eventually both dams failed and tens of thousands were killed within minutes. Most of the deaths, however, occurred in the days that followed from starvation and disease and the program I saw on this estimated the final death count at near 300,000.

With all of the dangerous things man plays with from nuclear power to bio-technology I would be very surprised if we, as a people, were to make it through this century without some sort of man-made catastrophe of unprecedented proportions.

I think a biological disaster is very possible. It might even come from a natural source but with so many world travelers it could get out of hand very quickly such as many feared the SARS epidemic might.

[Beleth]

I think the probablility of a man-made disaster affecting a million people this century is darn near 1.

Affecting 10-20 million, well, that's hard to say. Especially since there's a certain "accidental" tint to the word "disaster", so I wouldn't consider the intentional setting off of a nuke in the center of a large town a "disaster". Catastrophe yes, but not disaster.


I heard that NPR report too. I liked how the last person interviewed pretty much shot down all the prophesy-quoters before him by saying something like "Jesus said that we would not know the hour of His arrival".

[Jedi Knight]

Originally posted by renata
Forgive the glum post. I heard a story on NPR today about fundamentalists whose only reason to support Israel is that they think it is a fulfillment of biblical prophecies. So even though they support Israel in the short term, really it is a back handed kind of deal- before second coming of Jesus, all Jews are supposed to convert or die, as I understand it. These idiots are going nuts over a red heifer that was born. It is a second one- the first one got a few white hairs. But this one looks to be legit! Apocalypse surely is coming.


After this, I started wondering that if a catastrophe will occur, it will be a classic self fulfilling prophecy. Some religious nut will have undue influence and provoke a war. Current destructive capabilities are enormous, and it is possible for something horrible to occur.


So here is my question: How likely is it that there will be a large man made disaster this century? Not asteroid hitting Earth, but something caused by humans. I am thinking of something that would wipe out a lot of people- 10-20 millions. I honestly do not know. As more and more countries get their hands on nuclear weapons, it feels like a possibility of something of that sort grows every day. And a follow up question- if it does happen, where will it be? Middle East? India/Pakistan? Russia? Africa?

It will be a biological weapon. Nuclear weapons will just be used for harrassment.

JK

[Dancing David]

Jk and I agree, does disaster include intentional acts or just accidents?

I think that he ability to create and diseminate chemical and biological agents is very easy. The possibility of a Bohpal is very high.

In Rwanda, three million people were killed without any high tech. i am afraid that there chances for a disaster are very likely.

Number One: disaster involving the degredation of the oceans.

Number Two: global warming leading to the breakup of the Antartic iceshelf, conversly leading to another ice age.

Number Three: deliberate or indeliberate speard of something like the flu that leads to a plauge.

But I always can hope that the world gets better!

[Jedi Knight]

Originally posted by Dancing David
Jk and I agree, does disaster include intentional acts or just accidents?

I think that he ability to create and diseminate chemical and biological agents is very easy. The possibility of a Bohpal is very high.

In Rwanda, three million people were killed without any high tech. i am afraid that there chances for a disaster are very likely.

Number One: disaster involving the degredation of the oceans.

Number Two: global warming leading to the breakup of the Antartic iceshelf, conversly leading to another ice age.

Number Three: deliberate or indeliberate speard of something like the flu that leads to a plauge.

But I always can hope that the world gets better!

It will be a biological weapon, something made from Spanish Flu which is the most virulent infiltrant in humans. The reason I say that is the folks who will release it know that it must be a contageous pathogen to have the global effect they want.

Believe it or not, wars do not induce the casualties and population controls that people generally fall back on when they think of such matters. The best soldiers are microscopic ones, invisible and deadly.

I think some radical leftist who loses his humanity and has skills in microbiology will release such a bug. The environmental movement can also breed the right sort of person to do such an act. All you can do is wait until it happens and hope you can respond fast enough.

But it will be some type of recombitrant virus and it will kill millions and that will be the first use of many, in my opinion.

This new century is going to be pretty interesting.

JK

[Tmy]

Hey dont worry about it. We're too smart to kill ourselves. Plus the time traveling earthlings from the future are always making sure we dont make any big mistakes that would wipe out mankind.

[Jedi Knight]

Originally posted by Tmy
Hey dont worry about it. We're too smart to kill ourselves. Plus the time traveling earthlings from the future are always making sure we dont make any big mistakes that would wipe out mankind.

Are you talking about the flying black triangles that fly over my house a few times a week? I was wondering why they liked me so much.

JK

[ZeeGerman]

Originally posted by Jedi Knight


It will be a biological weapon, something made from Spanish Flu which is the most virulent infiltrant in humans. The reason I say that is the folks who will release it know that it must be a contageous pathogen to have the global effect they want.

Believe it or not, wars do not induce the casualties and population controls that people generally fall back on when they think of such matters. The best soldiers are microscopic ones, invisible and deadly.

I think some radical leftist who loses his humanity and has skills in microbiology will release such a bug. The environmental movement can also breed the right sort of person to do such an act. All you can do is wait until it happens and hope you can respond fast enough.

But it will be some type of recombitrant virus and it will kill millions and that will be the first use of many, in my opinion.

This new century is going to be pretty interesting.

JK

Have you been watching "12 Monkeys" again, JK? I know you like Bruce Willis :D

Zee

[Tony]

Originally posted by Dancing David


Number Two: global warming leading to the breakup of the Antartic iceshelf, conversly leading to another ice age.



Do you think humanity can survive another ice age?

[Dancing David]

The onset of the ice age is slow, so I think so. The problem in current models is that when the ice shelf breaks it leads to more preciptation in the higher latitudes. This leads to more snow cover and colder temps.

[Tony]

Originally posted by Dancing David
The onset of the ice age is slow, so I think so. The problem in current models is that when the ice shelf breaks it leads to more preciptation in the higher latitudes. This leads to more snow cover and colder temps.


Would things pretty much exist as they are now, (Ie. advanced technology, computers, big cities ect..) or, would our advances and knowledge be destroyed and we revert so some kind of prehistoric condition (kinda like a madmax scenario )?

[Jedi Knight]

Originally posted by Tony


Do you think humanity can survive another ice age?

Hmmm...interesting observation.

Ice ages start suddenly with little to no warning. Snowstorms right before they begin can leave snow 30 stories high.

If there is an ice age coming, please let me know because I live an area where the snow will reach 60 stories in height (if it is like the last one).

JK

[Jedi Knight]

Originally posted by Tony



Would things pretty much exist as they are now, (Ie. advanced technology, computers, big cities ect..) or, would our advances and knowledge be destroyed and we revert so some kind of prehistoric condition (kinda like a madmax scenario )?

You would have the whole of Canada and the northern US pissed off and looking for warmer territory lol.

Those populations would move south to Mexico and Central/South America and then a Mad Max type situation could arise, yes.

Unless the government forced all those in the 'cold zone' to die in place or prevented their flight somehow.

JK

[Blue Monk]

Well if it turns out to be another ice age I for one am going to be p*ssed because I hate the cold.

I'm way to skinny for cold weather, hehe.

I tend to agree with JK however in that the biggest threat is biological.

An intentional attack is a terrifying thought as an organism properly designed would be difficult to defend against.

An organism that is an air-borne contaminant that has a long gestation period where many could be infected before the problem is even noticed and then spread with, oh say, contaminated money is a truly horrific thought.

But I don't think an intentional attack is the only threat. The world has become so small that even a natural outbreak could be spread quite quickly. If one looks at the historical record for natural disasters nothing beats an epidemic.

[Tmy]

I for one think they should put the weather machine on the fast tract. If there is one more overcast day in the Northeast Im going to kill myslef.

[Jedi Knight]

Originally posted by Blue Monk
Well if it turns out to be another ice age I for one am going to be p*ssed because I hate the cold.

I'm way to skinny for cold weather, hehe.

I tend to agree with JK however in that the biggest threat is biological.

An intentional attack is a terrifying thought as an organism properly designed would be difficult to defend against.

An organism that is an air-borne contaminant that has a long gestation period where many could be infected before the problem is even noticed and then spread with, oh say, contaminated money is a truly horrific thought.

But I don't think an intentional attack is the only threat. The world has become so small that even a natural outbreak could be spread quite quickly. If one looks at the historical record for natural disasters nothing beats an epidemic.

Biological agents fit terrorism perfectly. It is done via a covert attack and no nation-state will assume responsibility.

Biological warfare has the capability to do trillions of dollars worth of damage and no easy solutions.

It is the perfect weapon.

JK

[Blue Monk]

Originally posted by Jedi Knight


Biological agents fit terrorism perfectly. It is done via a covert attack and no nation-state will assume responsibility.

Biological warfare has the capability to do trillions of dollars worth of damage and no easy solutions.

It is the perfect weapon.

JK

I couldn't agree more.

I think the idea that the damage could be done before people started dropping and the danger became clear is what scares me the most.

Also, the recent Anthrax scare has left the false impression that this is not an easy thing to do. That may be true with Anthrax but it is not necessarily true of all potential agents.

I mean that Japanese cult had no problem getting sarin into the subway system. That could have been a lot worse.

[a_unique_person]

Originally posted by renata
Forgive the glum post. I heard a story on NPR today about fundamentalists whose only reason to support Israel is that they think it is a fulfillment of biblical prophecies. So even though they support Israel in the short term, really it is a back handed kind of deal- before second coming of Jesus, all Jews are supposed to convert or die, as I understand it. These idiots are going nuts over a red heifer that was born. It is a second one- the first one got a few white hairs. But this one looks to be legit! Apocalypse surely is coming.


After this, I started wondering that if a catastrophe will occur, it will be a classic self fulfilling prophecy. Some religious nut will have undue influence and provoke a war. Current destructive capabilities are enormous, and it is possible for something horrible to occur.


I have already mentioned the patronising attitude towards Jews that is apparent in this report. I believe it is more racist and dangerous than anything you have accused me of.

[BobK]

Renata,

10-20 million people wiped out isn't that great a catastrophe considering in WW2 the USSR alone lost more than 20 million and the death toll for all countries was estimated at over 55 million.

An equivalent catastrophe these days would have to be around 150 million people.

By the end of this century reasonable estimates of world population I believe are between 15-20 billion.

So I think it's highly likely there will be more than one catastrophe of 15-20 million.

Maybe even one of 150 million.

We're sort of like rats in a cage. Allowed to breed, but can't get away from each other. So sooner or later the fights break out.

Pleasant thought isn't it?:eek: