Bush: 2006 NIE to be declassified

[Cylinder]

In this morning's joint press conference with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, Pres. Bush announced that he has ordered DNI Nergoponte to redact and declassify the April 2006 National Intelligence Estimate which will be released "as soon as possible" so the American voters can read the key conclusions and "draw their own conclusions."

[Mephisto]

I wonder if he's read it. ;)

[Jocko]

I wonder if he's read it. ;)

I wonder if you know a called bluff when you see it. I'm guessing not.

[Upchurch]

*looks at the calendar*

hm....

[Cylinder]

Apparently, these will be the key judgments. The bold is the NIE language. The comments are my own.

[The US and coalition forces have] "seriously damaged Al Qaida leadership and disrupted its operations." This judgment is obvious. al Qaeda's leadership has been killed, captured or dispersed and isolated. al Qaeda still poses a significant threat to attacks against the US and her allies, but US-led efforts to disrupt their lines of communication have left operations prone to interdiction.


"A large body of reporting indicates that people identifying themselves as jihadists is increasing...however, they are largely decentralized, lack a coherent strategy and are becoming more diffuse." This key judgment will link the invasion of Iraq to terrorist recruiting and I think is the leaked judgment.



"Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves to have failed, we judge that fewer will carry on the fight." This is pretty straight-forward as well. The rise of the Taliban and al Qaeda shows the opposite ripple effect. The perception that they drove the Soviets out of Afghanistan and the US/UN out of Somalia led was a great boon to recruiting and political initiatives. This is the classic battle of wills.



"There is evidence that violent tactics are backfiring...their greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate political solution (shar'a law) is unpopular with the vast majority of Muslims." This is the key judgment that I think the US and her partners should do much more to exploit.In my opinion, the real key to this is who is writing the textbooks.



"Threats to the U.S. are intrinsically linked to U.S. success or failure in Iraq." This will be the most controversial of the key judgments. This directly refutes the "redeployment" crowd. I have a feeling this might be somehow overlooked by the usual suspects. I think there is a very strong argument to be made in favor of this judgment as noted above in the ripple effect.



"Progress toward pluralism and more responsive political systems in the Muslim world will eliminate many of the grievances jihadists exploit." This key judgment can be easily summed in two words: Bush Doctrine.

ETA: I can't vouch for the reliablity of this counter-leak. It at least reads like key judgements that would be expected to be found in a NIE.

[Cylinder]

*looks at the calendar*

hm....

In his speech, Pres. Bush questioned the timing as well. Of course, the ranking member of the Senate Intelligence Committee has already called for the document to be declassed, so it would be a hard sell to spin this as an election plot executed exclusively by Republicans.

[Jocko]

Uh oh, speaking of called bluffs... looks like someone's afraid to put their cards on the table. (http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/09/26/D8KCM0E80.html)

Pelosi Asks for Closed House Session

House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi asked her colleagues Tuesday to close the House's doors for a highly unusual secret session to discuss a classified intelligence analysis on global terrorism.

Such a session hasn't happened in the House since July 1983, when the chamber went into a closed session to discuss the United States' support for paramilitary operations in Nicaragua.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Pelosi, D-Calif., said the secret session is necessary to allow members to better understand the intelligence community's most recent assessment on global terrorism.

Finally, something that motivates democratic leadership in the war on terror: the possibilty of political disaster. Better late than never, I guess.

[Major Billy]

"seriously damaged Al Qaida leadership and disrupted its operations."I sure wish someone would tell Al-Qaida we've beaten them:

London Bombing (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/uk/2005/london_explosions/default.stm)

Madrid Bombing (http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2004/madrid.bombing)

[Upchurch]

Uh oh, speaking of called bluffs... looks like someone's afraid to put their cards on the table. (http://www.breitbart.com/news/2006/09/26/D8KCM0E80.html)
I don't understand. You'd rather they have an open session to discuss a classified intelligence analysis on global terrorism?

And what does that have to do with a the releasing of declassified material?

[Cylinder]

I sure wish someone would tell Al-Qaida we've beaten them:

You may want to check out one of the online dictionaries to clear up that confusion.

Damage (http://www.dictionary.hm/?damage)

Beat (http://www.dictionary.hm/?beat)

[Cylinder]

I don't understand. You'd rather they have an open session to discuss a classified intelligence analysis on global terrorism?

Classified briefing are usually undertaken in the House Select Committee on Intelligence or to individual or small groups of Congress-critters. Rep. Pelosi is asking for a closed debate for the body as a whole in the House chambers. I'm not trying to defend or refute your overall point - I just wanted to point that out. :)

[Upchurch]

Classified briefing are usually undertaken in the House Select Committee on Intelligence or to individual or small groups of Congress-critters. Rep. Pelosi is asking for a closed debate for the body as a whole in the House chambers. I'm not trying to defend or refute your overall point - I just wanted to point that out. :)
No, I understood that part, but thanks.

Jocko's emphesis was that she was afraid to put her cards on the table. Given that she apparently wants to share the information with the House as a whole, I can only assume that he's saying that she's afraid to let the American people see the classified information. I don't know if that is, in fact, the case, but I imagine it would be illegal for her to "put her cards on the table" in such a fashion.

[Jocko]

I don't understand. You'd rather they have an open session to discuss a classified intelligence analysis on global terrorism??

Uh, yes I would, since it's being declassified. It's not like it's being leaked to the NYT for political advantage or anything potentially treasonous like that. Why do you think it's been over 20 years since such a maneuver has been executed? 1983, Upchurch, was the last time such a session was approved.


And what does that have to do with a the releasing of declassified material?

Damage control, plain and simple. They've hitched themselves to a wagon, and now the wheels are coming off. I expect it to get far worse before it gets any better.

Not that it matters; Pelosi got her @$$ handed to her and there will be no such closed session. Let's see how "unsafe" we really are, shall we?

[Upchurch]

Uh, yes I would, since it's being declassified.
Sorry. I missed that part. I didn't realize they were talking about the same information that is being declassified.

It is the information that is being declassified, isn't it? The article doesn't say exactly.

Why do you think it's been over 20 years since such a maneuver has been executed? 1983, Upchurch, was the last time such a session was approved.
I read that, too. '83 would have been towards the latter years of the Cold War when we had sensitive information that the entire House might have needed to know. Given all that's going on now, I suppose that it is possible that such a situation has arisen now.

Given my extremely low security clearance, I can only guess, though.

[Cylinder]

All Congresspersons have statutory clearances for non-compartmentalized information such as would be expected to be found in an NIE. Congress as a whole probably see redacted copies with sources removed. It does take some hours to clear the chamber for classified. The security staff has to close the chamber, do a thorough search and sweep it for electronic devices. I don't think the logistics have anything to do with Pelosi's request being shot down -which CNN is reporting that it has been.

This part is more political theater from both sides than anything else. A pox on both their houses!

[Cylinder]

Here is the official release (http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/Declassified_NIE_Key_Judgments.pdf) from the Director of National Intelligence of the April 2006 National Intelligence Estimate titled Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States:



Key Judgements:



United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization. We also assess that the global jihadist movement - which includes al-Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells — is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.


We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti-American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.


We assess that the Iraq jihad is shaping a new generation of terrorist leaders and operatives; perceived jihadist success there would inspire more fighters to continue the struggle elsewhere.


We assess that the underlying factors fueling the spread of the movement outweigh its vulnerabilities and are likely to do so for the duration of the timeframe of this Estimate.


Concomitant [Cylinder: attendant or conjoined] vulnerabilities in the jihadist movement have emerged that, if fully exposed and exploited, could begin to slow the spread of the movement. They include dependence on the continuation of Muslim-related conflicts, the limited appeal of the jihadists radical ideology, the emergence of respected voices of moderation, and criticism of the violent tactics employed against mostly Muslim citizens.


If democratic reform efforts in Muslim majority nations progress over the next five years, political participation probably would drive a wedge between intransigent extremists and groups willing to use the political process to achieve their local objectives. Nonetheless, attendant reforms and potentially destabilizing transitions will create new opportunities for jihadists to exploit.


Al-Qa’ida, now merged with Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi’s network, is exploiting the situation in Iraq to attract new recruits and donors and to maintain its leadership role.


Other affiliated Sunni extremist organizations, such as Jemaah Islamiya, Ansar al-Sunnah, and several North African groups, unless countered, are likely to expand their reach and become more capable of multiple and/or mass-casualty attacks outside their traditional areas of operation.


We judge that most jihadist groups both well-known and newly formed will use improvised explosive devices and suicide attacks focused primarily on soft targets to implement their asymmetric warfare strategy, and that they will attempt to conduct sustained terrorist attacks in urban environments. Fighters with experience in Iraq are a potential source of leadership for jihadists pursuing these tactics.


While Iran, and to a lesser extent Syria, remain the most active state sponsors of terrorism, many other states will be unable to prevent territory or resources from being exploited by terrorists.


Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical ideologies. This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests. The radicalization process is occurring more quickly, more widely, and more anonymously in the Internet age, raising the likelihood of surprise attacks by unknown groups whose members and supporters may be difficult to pinpoint.

[peptoabysmal]

I don't see anything unexpected here. Did anyone expect that in a war, the enemy would not adapt, recruit and escalate? Maybe we should take the war as seriously as the enemy does.

[fishbob]

"Progress toward pluralism and more responsive political systems in the Muslim world will eliminate many of the grievances jihadists exploit." This key judgment can be easily summed in two words: Bush Doctrine.[/list]


Setting a goal of pluralism and more responsive political systems may indeed be the Bush Doctrine, but progress toward that goal is somewhat lacking - which leaves unresolved the grievances that jihadists exploit. Advertisement of this finding is probably unpopular among the leadership of the present administration.

[Mephisto]

I don't see anything unexpected here. Did anyone expect that in a war, the enemy would not adapt, recruit and escalate?

It's too bad the administration couldn't see what is plain to you.

The enemy has indeed evolved from having greeted us with flowers as liberators.

[Crossbow]

Even though the report does state that the Iraq War is one of the factors that are serving to increase terrorism, Bush still states that the Iraq War was not a mistake.

Oh well, I really did not expect him to start doing otherwise now.

[stamenflicker]

Setting a goal of pluralism and more responsive political systems may indeed be the Bush Doctrine, but progress toward that goal is somewhat lacking - which leaves unresolved the grievances that jihadists exploit. Advertisement of this finding is probably unpopular among the leadership of the present administration.

And why is it lacking? Maybe because the rest of the world isn't on board with the Bush doctrine. Many of them believe its perfectly ok for extremists to run the government, squander resources, and torture their populace.

You can say its lacking, but you can't say it's not working. Last week a head cabinet member in Afganistan was murdered. She was in charge of women's rights.

As the report indicates these kinds of killings are creating backlash in the Muslim world-- the side that wants freedom. The bombings in Iraq are creating backlash against the jihadists.

What the Iraq situation does is put two opposing realities out in front of the Muslim street:

1) Jihadists killing muslim children.
2) Americans building them schools.

[Jocko]

The enemy has indeed evolved from having greeted us with flowers as liberators.

Your presumption that these are the same people is the foundation of your erroneous conclusions.

[Mephisto]

Your presumption that these are the same people is the foundation of your erroneous conclusions.

And your presumption that your beloved administration is calling anyone's bluff is just as erroneous.

White House refuses to release full terror report

POSTED: 2:24 p.m. EDT, September 27, 2006

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The White House refused Wednesday to release the rest of a secret intelligence assessment that depicts a growing terrorist threat as the Bush administration tried to quell election-season criticism that its anti-terror policies are seriously off track.

Press secretary Tony Snow said releasing the full report, portions of which President Bush declassified on Tuesday, would jeopardize the lives of agents who gathered the information.

It would also risk the nation's ability to work with foreign governments and to keep secret its U.S. intelligence-gathering methods, Snow said, and "compromise the independence of people doing intelligence analysis."

http://www.cnn.com/2006/POLITICS/09/27/nie.iraq.ap/index.html
____________

Now what were you saying about putting cards on a table?